FORTRESS FIGHT: GLD @ $377.02

BE SS: $456.00 | CC-SS: $471.18 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GLD @ $377.02 UNDERWATER $78.98 (17.3% below BE SS)

PARTIAL: 5 of 10 contracts already capped (5x $390C). FIGHTing the 5 uncapped; all figures (income, hedge, cap give-up) are for that slice.

5 of 10 contracts (500 sh uncapped) | BE SS: $456.00 | CC-SS: $471.18 | IV: LOW | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $320 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $173.979/sh)

SP: $450 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $43.857/sh)

HP: $330 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $4.500/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$128,000	(ND $136.00 + SW $120) x 500
Normal income ref	$7,644/mo	45% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$549/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-61,463	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$3,822/mo

HEDGE COVER
$549/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$7,644/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
8.9 mo to earn back $68,000

ML VELOCITY
16.7 mo to earn back $128,000

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $471.18 (probe: $470C 13d) brings only $12/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$248

Hole (after banked)

$61,215

was $61,463 · 0% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$676

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
5x $390C 17 Jul 2026	U10001299	$1.35	$676	2026-07-10

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYPULLBACK · %B 15 (live) · RSI 39 · MACD bearish, hist rising

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 42 · %B 44 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELS20W MA (bounce target) $419.75 (+11%) · daily UBB $396.44 · 1-wk expected move ±$11 (chain IV)

SETUPSpring loaded, not ignited: 🎯 or 💎 at short DTE, normal tripwires. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 5 contracts at $385 / 6d. This is the safest strike (survival 78%, breach 22%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($3,822/mo); it brings $4,125/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 5 × $380/6d for $8,375/mo, but breach risk rises to 38% (+17pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 5 × $397/6d (97% survival, $600/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $42,267 (62% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $456, recoverable in 5.5 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 5 contracts realizes $-61,500 and cuts bleed by $549/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 (6d) · sell 5 × $385, 78% survival, $4,125/mo (E[net] $956/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆	17 Jul 2026 · 6d	5 × $385	78%	$4,125	$956

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 6d · E[net] $956/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 5 × $385 (primary), 78% survival, breach 22%, $4,125/mo.
Stay at the pick. Stepping safer (the $387 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 83% (breach 22% → 17%) for $1,175/mo less (28% income)) buys little extra safety; the income is doing real work covering the bleed.

GLD spot $377.02 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

5 × $397

17 Jul

5.3%

97%

$120

$600

-$3,525

$36,972

Sell 5 × $397 5.3% OTM over spot $377.02 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.29 mid)

= $120 credit for the 6d cycle → $600/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $397)

97%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $397.29)

97%

EV / mo

+$464

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.6 mo [2.9-6.6] median · 26% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 23% without) · ~1.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $-146

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,997

Free roll-up

+$2/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$408 @ 77% POP

71% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $5.99/sh now → $4.23 mid-life (likely $2.89–$5.75) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.24/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.99/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 136 simulated challenges: the $397 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 6, at $400 (overshoots $2.64). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$397	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.85/sh	+$426 cycle +$546 [+$444…+$841] · 98% credit	67% surv 51%	-$46,904 NOT cap gain +$14,558
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$398	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.32/sh	+$160 cycle +$280 [+$114…+$558] · 85% credit	69% surv 54%	-$46,486 NOT cap gain +$14,977
Max even-money escape in the band	~$408	31 Jul 2026	17d left	+$0.22/sh	+$108 cycle +$228 [-$149…+$687] · 68% credit	77% surv 71%	-$39,523 NOT cap gain +$21,939
SS $456 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$600/mo
vs 50% target ($3,822/mo)	-84%
vs normal income ($7,644/mo)	8% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$51/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $397 is $74 below CC-SS $471.18: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$36,972
… as % of IC ($68,000)	54.4%
… as % of ML ($128,000)	28.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	4.8 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-61,488

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.24 collected) or spot ≥ $397.29 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $397)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $396.44 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $393.03	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $393-397.29	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $397.29	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.40 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$397.00 (1.9σ)	$120	$-47,330	+$14,132	+$115
+2.5%	$406.92 (2.9σ)	$-4,842	$-45,330	+$16,132	-$4,847
+5%	$416.85 (3.9σ)	$-9,805	$-43,330	+$18,132	-$9,810
SS (= V-bounce)	$456.00 (7.7σ)	$-29,380	$-35,442	+$26,021	-$28,885

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $471.18, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-61,463

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$66,052

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $397): -$36,972

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-32,382 (+$29,081 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,497 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-28,885, the opportunity cost of earning $600/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $419.75 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,255, position total $-42,746 (+$18,717 vs today)

▸

🛡 safe yield

5 × $391

17 Jul

3.7%

91%

18%

$315

$1,575

-$2,550

$39,777

Sell 5 × $391 3.7% OTM over spot $377.02 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.69 mid)

= $315 credit for the 6d cycle → $1,575/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $391)

91%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $391.69)

92%

EV / mo

+$1,022

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 5.4 mo [3.5-6.9] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (5.5 mo) · 28% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 22% without) · ~5.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,568

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

15%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,704

Free roll-up

+$2/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$404 @ 80% POP

75% survival

Buyback gross: $5.71/sh now → $4.04 mid-life (likely $3.48–$6.14) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.63/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.41/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 441 simulated challenges: the $391 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $394 (overshoots $2.63). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$391	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.80/sh	+$399 cycle +$714 [+$318…+$736] · 99% credit	67% surv 51%	-$50,945 NOT cap gain +$10,518
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$392	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.27/sh	+$134 cycle +$449 [-$1…+$429] · 75% credit	69% surv 54%	-$50,526 NOT cap gain +$10,936
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$401	31 Jul 2026	17d left	+$0.34/sh	+$170 cycle +$485 [-$208…+$530] · 60% credit	77% surv 70%	-$44,177 NOT cap gain +$17,286
Max even-money escape in the band	~$402	31 Jul 2026	17d left	+$0.03/sh	+$17 cycle +$332 [-$404…+$365] · 47% credit	78% surv 72%	-$43,628 NOT cap gain +$17,834
SS $456 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$404	31 Jul 2026	17d left	-$0.53/sh	-$265 cycle +$50 [-$732…+$57] · 28% credit	80% surv 75%	-$42,507 NOT cap gain +$18,956
budget: banked $315 debit $265 (84% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$50 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,095/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$1,575/mo
vs 50% target ($3,822/mo)	-59%
vs normal income ($7,644/mo)	21% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,026/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $391 is $80 below CC-SS $471.18: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$39,777
… as % of IC ($68,000)	58.5%
… as % of ML ($128,000)	31.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	5.2 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-61,490

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.16/sh (~25% of the $0.63 collected) or spot ≥ $391.69 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $391)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $396.44 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $387.09	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $387-391.69	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $391.69	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.40 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$391.00 (1.4σ)	$315	$-51,344	+$10,118	+$310
+2.5%	$400.77 (2.3σ)	$-4,572	$-49,374	+$12,088	-$4,577
+5%	$410.55 (3.3σ)	$-9,460	$-47,405	+$14,058	-$9,465
SS (= V-bounce)	$456.00 (7.7σ)	$-32,185	$-38,247	+$23,216	-$31,690

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $471.18, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-61,463

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$66,052

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $391): -$39,777

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-35,187 (+$26,276 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,497 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-31,690, the opportunity cost of earning $1,575/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $419.75 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$14,060, position total $-45,551 (+$15,912 vs today)

▸

33% normal

5 × $387

17 Jul

2.6%

83%

33%

$590

$2,950

-$1,175

$41,502

Sell 5 × $387 2.6% OTM over spot $377.02 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $1.27 mid)

= $590 credit for the 6d cycle → $2,950/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $387)

83%

Breach risk

17%

POP (stays ≤ $388.26)

86%

EV / mo

+$1,512

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.9 mo [3.4-6.7] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (4.7 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 24% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 18% without) · ~10.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $11,160

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

25%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,365

Free roll-up

+$2/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$402 @ 82% POP

78% survival

Buyback gross: $5.53/sh now → $3.91 mid-life (likely $3.81–$6.32) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.18/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.73/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 750 simulated challenges: the $387 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $390 (overshoots $2.64). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$387	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.76/sh	+$382 cycle +$972 [+$229…+$622] · 97% credit	67% surv 51%	-$53,493 NOT cap gain +$7,969
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$396	31 Jul 2026	17d left	+$0.57/sh	+$284 cycle +$874 [-$192…+$499] · 61% credit	76% surv 69%	-$47,295 NOT cap gain +$14,168
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$388	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.23/sh	+$117 cycle +$707 [-$95…+$282] · 60% credit	69% surv 54%	-$53,074 NOT cap gain +$8,388
Max even-money escape in the band	~$397	31 Jul 2026	17d left	+$0.22/sh	+$109 cycle +$699 [-$400…+$308] · 46% credit	77% surv 70%	-$46,768 NOT cap gain +$14,694
SS $456 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$402	31 Jul 2026	17d left	-$1.14/sh	-$568 cycle +$22 [-$1,226…-$430] · 8% credit	82% surv 78%	-$43,938 NOT cap gain +$17,524
budget: banked $590 debit $568 (96% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$22 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,447/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,950/mo
vs 50% target ($3,822/mo)	-23%
vs normal income ($7,644/mo)	39% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,401/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $387 is $84 below CC-SS $471.18: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$41,502
… as % of IC ($68,000)	61.0%
… as % of ML ($128,000)	32.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	5.4 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-61,505

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.29/sh (~25% of the $1.18 collected) or spot ≥ $388.26 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $387)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $396.44 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $383.13	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $383-388.26	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $388.26	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.40 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$387.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$590	$-53,875	+$7,587	+$585
+2.5%	$396.67 (1.9σ)	$-4,247	$-51,926	+$9,537	-$4,252
+5%	$406.35 (2.9σ)	$-9,085	$-49,976	+$11,486	-$9,090
SS (= V-bounce)	$456.00 (7.7σ)	$-33,910	$-39,972	+$21,491	-$33,415

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $471.18, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-61,463

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$66,052

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $387): -$41,502

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-36,912 (+$24,551 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,497 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-33,415, the opportunity cost of earning $2,950/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $419.75 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$15,785, position total $-47,276 (+$14,187 vs today)

▸

🎯 50% normal

5 × $385

17 Jul

2.1%

78%

33%

$825

$4,125

—

$42,267

Sell 5 × $385 2.1% OTM over spot $377.02 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $1.73 mid)

= $825 credit for the 6d cycle → $4,125/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $385)

78%

Breach risk

22%

POP (stays ≤ $386.73)

83%

EV / mo

+$1,975

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 5.5 mo [3.8-6.9] median, 0.7 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (4.8 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 25% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 16% without) · ~13.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $15,339

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

33%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,098

Free roll-up

+$2/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$402 @ 84% POP

82% survival

Buyback gross: $5.44/sh now → $3.85 mid-life (likely $4.04–$6.57) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.20/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 989 simulated challenges: the $385 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $388 (overshoots $2.69). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$385	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.75/sh	+$373 cycle +$1,198 [+$184…+$505] · 96% credit	67% surv 51%	-$54,670 NOT cap gain +$6,793
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$393	31 Jul 2026	17d left	+$0.85/sh	+$427 cycle +$1,252 [-$74…+$524] · 70% credit	75% surv 67%	-$49,022 NOT cap gain +$12,441
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$386	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.22/sh	+$109 cycle +$934 [-$125…+$208] · 49% credit	69% surv 54%	-$54,251 NOT cap gain +$7,212
Max even-money escape in the band	~$395	31 Jul 2026	17d left	+$0.16/sh	+$80 cycle +$905 [-$500…+$144] · 32% credit	77% surv 71%	-$47,966 NOT cap gain +$13,496
SS $456 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$402	31 Jul 2026	17d left	-$1.59/sh	-$797 cycle +$28 [-$1,623…-$810] · 2% credit	84% surv 82%	-$43,932 NOT cap gain +$17,531
budget: banked $825 debit $797 (97% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$28 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,987/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$4,125/mo
vs 50% target ($3,822/mo)	+8%
vs normal income ($7,644/mo)	54% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,576/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $385 is $86 below CC-SS $471.18: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$42,267
… as % of IC ($68,000)	62.2%
… as % of ML ($128,000)	33.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	5.5 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-61,500

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.41/sh (~25% of the $1.65 collected) or spot ≥ $386.73 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $385)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $396.44 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $381.15	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $381-386.73	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $386.73	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.40 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$385.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$825	$-55,043	+$6,419	+$820
+2.5%	$394.62 (1.7σ)	$-3,987	$-53,104	+$8,359	-$3,992
+5%	$404.25 (2.6σ)	$-8,800	$-51,164	+$10,298	-$8,805
SS (= V-bounce)	$456.00 (7.7σ)	$-34,675	$-40,737	+$20,726	-$34,180

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $471.18, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-61,463

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$66,052

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $385): -$42,267

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-37,677 (+$23,786 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,497 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-34,180, the opportunity cost of earning $4,125/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $419.75 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$16,550, position total $-48,041 (+$13,422 vs today)

▸

100% normal

5 × $380

17 Jul

0.8%

62%

77%

$1,675

$8,375

+$4,250

$43,917

Sell 5 × $380 0.8% OTM over spot $377.02 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $3.42 mid)

= $1,675 credit for the 6d cycle → $8,375/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $380)

62%

Breach risk

38%

POP (stays ≤ $383.43)

73%

EV / mo

+$2,660

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 5.3 mo [3.5-7.1] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (5.4 mo) · 35% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 20% without) · ~30.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $21,711

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

62%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$169

Free roll-up

+$2/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$403 @ 90% POP

89% survival

Buyback gross: $5.22/sh now → $3.69 mid-life (likely $4.80–$6.95) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.34/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,857 simulated challenges: the $380 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 6, at $383 (overshoots $2.66). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$380	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.70/sh	+$352 cycle +$2,027 [+$94…+$286] · 91% credit	67% surv 51%	-$57,348 NOT cap gain +$4,114
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$387	31 Jul 2026	17d left	+$1.04/sh	+$519 cycle +$2,194 [-$108…+$302] · 65% credit	74% surv 66%	-$52,288 NOT cap gain +$9,174
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$381	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.18/sh	+$88 cycle +$1,763 [-$228…-$28] · 23% credit	69% surv 54%	-$56,929 NOT cap gain +$4,534
Max even-money escape in the band	~$390	31 Jul 2026	17d left	+$0.02/sh	+$8 cycle +$1,683 [-$734…-$257] · 12% credit	78% surv 71%	-$50,696 NOT cap gain +$10,767
SS $456 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$403	31 Jul 2026	17d left	-$2.54/sh	-$1,269 cycle +$406 [-$2,467…-$1,697]	90% surv 89%	-$42,853 NOT cap gain +$18,610
budget: banked $1,675 debit $1,269 (76% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$406 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,014/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$8,375/mo
vs 50% target ($3,822/mo)	+119%
vs normal income ($7,644/mo)	110% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$7,826/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $380 is $91 below CC-SS $471.18: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$43,917
… as % of IC ($68,000)	64.6%
… as % of ML ($128,000)	34.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	5.7 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-61,500

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.84/sh (~25% of the $3.35 collected) or spot ≥ $383.43 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $380)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $396.44 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $376.20	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $376-383.43	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $383.43	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.40 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$380.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,675	$-57,701	+$3,762	+$1,670
+2.5%	$389.50 (1.2σ)	$-3,075	$-55,786	+$5,676	-$3,080
+5%	$399.00 (2.1σ)	$-7,825	$-53,872	+$7,590	-$7,830
SS (= V-bounce)	$456.00 (7.7σ)	$-36,325	$-42,387	+$19,076	-$35,830

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $471.18, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-61,463

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$66,052

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $380): -$43,917

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-39,327 (+$22,136 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,497 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-35,830, the opportunity cost of earning $8,375/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $419.75 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$18,200, position total $-49,691 (+$11,772 vs today)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on GLD are the tiebreakers.

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (90 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (6 expiries scanned, 90 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.403 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$66,052 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,497

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$384	4d	15 Jul 2026	$1.17	5/5	$4,387	$3,839	81%	84%	+$2,203	-$43,007	63.2%	$-38,417 (vs do-nothing $-34,920)
$385	6d	17 Jul 2026	$1.65	5/5	$4,125	$3,576	78%	83%	+$1,975	-$42,267	62.2%	$-37,677 (vs do-nothing $-34,180)
$383	4d	15 Jul 2026	$1.42	4/5	$4,260	$3,714	77%	82%	+$1,985	-$34,706	51.0%	$-31,733 (vs do-nothing $-28,236)
$384	6d	17 Jul 2026	$1.90	5/5	$4,750	$4,201	75%	81%	+$2,091	-$42,642	62.7%	$-38,052 (vs do-nothing $-34,555)
$382	4d	15 Jul 2026	$1.73	3/5	$3,892	$3,349	73%	80%	+$1,695	-$26,236	38.6%	$-24,881 (vs do-nothing $-21,384)
$383	6d	17 Jul 2026	$2.21	4/5	$4,420	$3,874	72%	79%	+$1,811	-$34,390	50.6%	$-31,417 (vs do-nothing $-27,920)
$384	11d	22 Jul 2026	$2.89	5/5	$3,941	$3,392	70%	77%	+$1,323	-$42,147	62.0%	$-37,557 (vs do-nothing $-34,060)
$383	9d	20 Jul 2026	$2.62	5/5	$4,367	$3,818	70%	77%	+$1,517	-$42,782	62.9%	$-38,192 (vs do-nothing $-34,695)
$381	4d	15 Jul 2026	$2.06	3/5	$4,635	$4,091	69%	77%	+$1,835	-$26,437	38.9%	$-25,082 (vs do-nothing $-21,585)
$382	6d	17 Jul 2026	$2.55	3/5	$3,825	$3,281	69%	77%	+$1,444	-$25,990	38.2%	$-24,635 (vs do-nothing $-21,138)
$384	13d	24 Jul 2026	$3.50	5/5	$4,038	$3,489	69%	76%	+$1,318	-$41,842	61.5%	$-37,252 (vs do-nothing $-33,755)
$383	11d	22 Jul 2026	$3.20	5/5	$4,364	$3,815	68%	76%	+$1,348	-$42,492	62.5%	$-37,902 (vs do-nothing $-34,405)
$382	9d	20 Jul 2026	$2.96	4/5	$3,947	$3,400	67%	76%	+$1,267	-$34,490	50.7%	$-31,517 (vs do-nothing $-28,020)

Show 77 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 77.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$383	13d	24 Jul 2026	$3.85	5/5	$4,442	$3,893	66%	75%	+$1,366	-$42,167	62.0%	$-37,577 (vs do-nothing $-34,080)
$381	6d	17 Jul 2026	$2.93	3/5	$4,395	$3,851	65%	75%	+$1,524	-$26,176	38.5%	$-24,821 (vs do-nothing $-21,324)
$384	20d	31 Jul 2026	$5.15	5/5	$3,862	$3,314	65%	74%	+$1,107	-$41,017	60.3%	$-36,427 (vs do-nothing $-32,930)
$382	11d	22 Jul 2026	$3.60	4/5	$3,927	$3,381	65%	74%	+$1,161	-$34,234	50.3%	$-31,261 (vs do-nothing $-27,764)
$380	4d	15 Jul 2026	$2.57	2/5	$3,855	$3,314	64%	75%	+$1,507	-$17,723	26.1%	$-17,985 (vs do-nothing $-14,488)
$381	9d	20 Jul 2026	$3.35	4/5	$4,467	$3,920	64%	74%	+$1,335	-$34,734	51.1%	$-31,761 (vs do-nothing $-28,264)
$382	13d	24 Jul 2026	$4.25	4/5	$3,923	$3,377	64%	74%	+$1,149	-$33,974	50.0%	$-31,001 (vs do-nothing $-27,504)
$383	20d	31 Jul 2026	$5.55	5/5	$4,162	$3,614	63%	73%	+$1,143	-$41,317	60.8%	$-36,727 (vs do-nothing $-33,230)
$381	11d	22 Jul 2026	$3.95	4/5	$4,309	$3,763	62%	73%	+$1,151	-$34,494	50.7%	$-31,521 (vs do-nothing $-28,024)
$380	6d	17 Jul 2026	$3.35	3/5	$5,025	$4,481	62%	73%	+$1,596	-$26,350	38.8%	$-24,995 (vs do-nothing $-21,498)
$381	13d	24 Jul 2026	$4.65	4/5	$4,292	$3,746	61%	72%	+$1,176	-$34,214	50.3%	$-31,241 (vs do-nothing $-27,744)
$382	20d	31 Jul 2026	$6.00	5/5	$4,500	$3,951	61%	72%	+$1,198	-$41,592	61.2%	$-37,002 (vs do-nothing $-33,505)
$380	9d	20 Jul 2026	$3.80	4/5	$5,067	$4,520	60%	72%	+$1,431	-$34,954	51.4%	$-31,981 (vs do-nothing $-28,484)
$379	4d	15 Jul 2026	$2.89	2/5	$4,335	$3,794	60%	73%	+$1,420	-$17,859	26.3%	$-18,121 (vs do-nothing $-14,624)
$380	11d	22 Jul 2026	$4.45	4/5	$4,855	$4,308	59%	72%	+$1,266	-$34,694	51.0%	$-31,721 (vs do-nothing $-28,224)
$381	20d	31 Jul 2026	$6.45	4/5	$3,870	$3,324	59%	71%	+$987	-$33,494	49.3%	$-30,521 (vs do-nothing $-27,024)
$380	13d	24 Jul 2026	$5.15	4/5	$4,754	$4,208	59%	71%	+$1,266	-$34,414	50.6%	$-31,441 (vs do-nothing $-27,944)
$379	6d	17 Jul 2026	$3.80	3/5	$5,700	$5,156	58%	71%	+$1,642	-$26,515	39.0%	$-25,160 (vs do-nothing $-21,663)
$379	9d	20 Jul 2026	$4.25	3/5	$4,250	$3,706	57%	71%	+$1,103	-$26,380	38.8%	$-25,025 (vs do-nothing $-21,528)
$380	20d	31 Jul 2026	$6.90	4/5	$4,140	$3,594	57%	70%	+$1,001	-$33,714	49.6%	$-30,741 (vs do-nothing $-27,244)
$379	11d	22 Jul 2026	$4.70	3/5	$3,845	$3,302	56%	70%	+$802	-$26,245	38.6%	$-24,890 (vs do-nothing $-21,393)
$379	13d	24 Jul 2026	$5.60	3/5	$3,877	$3,333	56%	70%	+$959	-$25,975	38.2%	$-24,620 (vs do-nothing $-21,123)
$378	4d	15 Jul 2026	$3.35	2/5	$5,025	$4,484	55%	71%	+$1,453	-$17,967	26.4%	$-18,229 (vs do-nothing $-14,732)
$379	20d	31 Jul 2026	$7.40	4/5	$4,440	$3,894	55%	69%	+$1,029	-$33,914	49.9%	$-30,941 (vs do-nothing $-27,444)
$378	6d	17 Jul 2026	$4.30	2/5	$4,300	$3,759	54%	70%	+$1,128	-$17,777	26.1%	$-18,039 (vs do-nothing $-14,542)
$378	9d	20 Jul 2026	$4.70	3/5	$4,700	$4,156	54%	69%	+$1,092	-$26,545	39.0%	$-25,190 (vs do-nothing $-21,693)
$378	11d	22 Jul 2026	$5.40	3/5	$4,418	$3,875	54%	69%	+$993	-$26,335	38.7%	$-24,980 (vs do-nothing $-21,483)
$378	13d	24 Jul 2026	$6.10	3/5	$4,223	$3,680	53%	69%	+$980	-$26,125	38.4%	$-24,770 (vs do-nothing $-21,273)
$378	20d	31 Jul 2026	$7.90	4/5	$4,740	$4,194	53%	69%	+$1,041	-$34,114	50.2%	$-31,141 (vs do-nothing $-27,644)
$377	20d	31 Jul 2026	$8.45	4/5	$5,070	$4,524	51%	68%	+$1,068	-$34,294	50.4%	$-31,321 (vs do-nothing $-27,824)
$377	13d	24 Jul 2026	$6.65	3/5	$4,604	$4,060	51%	68%	+$1,013	-$26,260	38.6%	$-24,905 (vs do-nothing $-21,408)
$377	11d	22 Jul 2026	$5.90	3/5	$4,827	$4,284	51%	67%	+$990	-$26,485	38.9%	$-25,130 (vs do-nothing $-21,633)
$377	9d	20 Jul 2026	$5.25	3/5	$5,250	$4,706	51%	68%	+$1,140	-$26,680	39.2%	$-25,325 (vs do-nothing $-21,828)
$377	6d	17 Jul 2026	$4.80	2/5	$4,800	$4,259	50%	68%	+$1,115	-$17,877	26.3%	$-18,139 (vs do-nothing $-14,642)
$377	4d	15 Jul 2026	$3.85	2/5	$5,775	$5,234	50%	68%	+$1,457	-$18,067	26.6%	$-18,329 (vs do-nothing $-14,832)
$376	20d	31 Jul 2026	$9.00	3/5	$4,050	$3,506	49%	67%	+$809	-$25,855	38.0%	$-24,500 (vs do-nothing $-21,003)
$376	13d	24 Jul 2026	$7.20	3/5	$4,985	$4,441	48%	67%	+$1,022	-$26,395	38.8%	$-25,040 (vs do-nothing $-21,543)
$376	11d	22 Jul 2026	$6.50	3/5	$5,318	$4,775	48%	66%	+$1,039	-$26,605	39.1%	$-25,250 (vs do-nothing $-21,753)
$376	9d	20 Jul 2026	$5.80	2/5	$3,867	$3,326	47%	66%	+$764	-$17,877	26.3%	$-18,139 (vs do-nothing $-14,642)
$375	20d	31 Jul 2026	$9.55	3/5	$4,298	$3,754	47%	66%	+$807	-$25,990	38.2%	$-24,635 (vs do-nothing $-21,138)
$376	6d	17 Jul 2026	$5.40	2/5	$5,400	$4,859	47%	66%	+$1,157	-$17,957	26.4%	$-18,219 (vs do-nothing $-14,722)
$376	4d	15 Jul 2026	$4.45	2/5	$6,675	$6,134	46%	67%	+$1,524	-$18,147	26.7%	$-18,409 (vs do-nothing $-14,912)
$375	13d	24 Jul 2026	$7.80	3/5	$5,400	$4,856	46%	66%	+$1,044	-$26,515	39.0%	$-25,160 (vs do-nothing $-21,663)
$374	20d	31 Jul 2026	$10.15	3/5	$4,568	$4,024	45%	65%	+$815	-$26,110	38.4%	$-24,755 (vs do-nothing $-21,258)
$375	11d	22 Jul 2026	$7.10	2/5	$3,873	$3,332	45%	65%	+$707	-$17,817	26.2%	$-18,079 (vs do-nothing $-14,582)
$375	9d	20 Jul 2026	$6.20	2/5	$4,133	$3,593	44%	65%	+$641	-$17,997	26.5%	$-18,259 (vs do-nothing $-14,762)
$375	6d	17 Jul 2026	$6.00	2/5	$6,000	$5,459	43%	65%	+$1,156	-$18,037	26.5%	$-18,299 (vs do-nothing $-14,802)
$374	13d	24 Jul 2026	$8.40	2/5	$3,877	$3,336	43%	65%	+$696	-$17,757	26.1%	$-18,019 (vs do-nothing $-14,522)
$373	20d	31 Jul 2026	$10.80	3/5	$4,860	$4,316	43%	64%	+$835	-$26,215	38.6%	$-24,860 (vs do-nothing $-21,363)
$374	11d	22 Jul 2026	$7.70	2/5	$4,200	$3,659	42%	64%	+$701	-$17,897	26.3%	$-18,159 (vs do-nothing $-14,662)
$375	4d	15 Jul 2026	$5.05	2/5	$7,575	$7,034	41%	65%	+$1,505	-$18,227	26.8%	$-18,489 (vs do-nothing $-14,992)
$374	9d	20 Jul 2026	$7.00	2/5	$4,667	$4,126	41%	64%	+$759	-$18,037	26.5%	$-18,299 (vs do-nothing $-14,802)
$373	13d	24 Jul 2026	$9.05	2/5	$4,177	$3,636	41%	64%	+$705	-$17,827	26.2%	$-18,089 (vs do-nothing $-14,592)
$372	20d	31 Jul 2026	$11.40	3/5	$5,130	$4,586	40%	64%	+$1,014	-$26,335	38.7%	$-24,980 (vs do-nothing $-21,483)
$374	6d	17 Jul 2026	$6.65	2/5	$6,650	$6,109	40%	64%	+$1,163	-$18,107	26.6%	$-18,369 (vs do-nothing $-14,872)
$373	11d	22 Jul 2026	$8.30	2/5	$4,527	$3,986	39%	63%	+$678	-$17,977	26.4%	$-18,239 (vs do-nothing $-14,742)
$371	20d	31 Jul 2026	$12.05	3/5	$5,423	$4,879	39%	63%	+$820	-$26,440	38.9%	$-25,085 (vs do-nothing $-21,588)
$372	13d	24 Jul 2026	$9.65	2/5	$4,454	$3,913	38%	63%	+$678	-$17,907	26.3%	$-18,169 (vs do-nothing $-14,672)
$373	9d	20 Jul 2026	$7.65	2/5	$5,100	$4,559	38%	63%	+$753	-$18,107	26.6%	$-18,369 (vs do-nothing $-14,872)
$370	20d	31 Jul 2026	$12.60	3/5	$5,670	$5,126	37%	62%	+$764	-$26,575	39.1%	$-25,220 (vs do-nothing $-21,723)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-11 00:20