FORTRESS FIGHT: GLD @ $376.27

BE SS: $456.00 | CC-SS: $470.85 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GLD @ $376.27 UNDERWATER $79.73 (17.5% below BE SS)

PARTIAL: 5 of 10 contracts already capped (5x $390C). FIGHTing the 5 uncapped; all figures (income, hedge, cap give-up) are for that slice.

5 of 10 contracts (500 sh uncapped) | BE SS: $456.00 | CC-SS: $470.85 | IV: LOW | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $320 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $173.979/sh)

SP: $450 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $43.857/sh)

HP: $330 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $4.500/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$128,000	(ND $136.00 + SW $120) x 500
Normal income ref	$7,188/mo	45% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$541/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-61,988	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$3,594/mo

HEDGE COVER
$541/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$7,188/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
9.5 mo to earn back $68,000

ML VELOCITY
17.8 mo to earn back $128,000

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $470.85 (probe: $470C 13d) brings only $12/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$248

Hole (after banked)

$61,740

was $61,988 · 0% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$676

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
5x $390C 17 Jul 2026	U10001299	$1.35	$676	2026-07-10

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYPULLBACK · %B 14 (live) · RSI 39 · MACD bearish, hist rising

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 41 · %B 42 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELS20W MA (bounce target) $419.75 (+12%) · daily UBB $396.42 · 1-wk expected move ±$11 (chain IV)

SETUPSpring loaded, not ignited: 🎯 or 💎 at short DTE, normal tripwires. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 5 contracts at $384 / 6d. This is the safest strike (survival 79%, breach 21%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($3,594/mo); it brings $3,725/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 5 × $379/6d for $8,000/mo, but breach risk rises to 39% (+18pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 5 × $395/6d (97% survival, $550/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $42,682 (63% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $456, recoverable in 5.9 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 5 contracts realizes $-62,035 and cuts bleed by $541/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 (6d) · sell 5 × $384, 79% survival, $3,725/mo (E[net] $671/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆	17 Jul 2026 · 6d	5 × $384	79%	$3,725	$671

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 6d · E[net] $671/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 5 × $384 (primary), 79% survival, breach 21%, $3,725/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $386 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 84% (breach 21% → 16%) for $1,100/mo less (30% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $386 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect GLD to stay flat-to-down near term.

GLD spot $376.27 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

5 × $395

17 Jul

5.0%

97%

$110

$550

-$3,175

$37,817

Sell 5 × $395 5.0% OTM over spot $376.27 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.23 mid)

= $110 credit for the 6d cycle → $550/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $395)

97%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $395.23)

97%

EV / mo

+$428

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 5.5 mo [3.9-7.4] median, 0.4 mo faster than no FIGHT (5.9 mo) · 20% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 18% without) · ~1.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $-394

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,876

Free roll-up

+$2/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$406 @ 77% POP

71% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $5.62/sh now → $3.97 mid-life (likely $2.85–$5.31) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.75/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 157 simulated challenges: the $395 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 6, at $397 (overshoots $2.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$395	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.85/sh	+$423 cycle +$533 [+$422…+$797] · 97% credit	67% surv 51%	-$48,231 NOT cap gain +$13,756
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$396	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.45/sh	+$225 cycle +$335 [+$200…+$575] · 91% credit	68% surv 53%	-$47,914 NOT cap gain +$14,073
Max even-money escape in the band	~$406	31 Jul 2026	17d left	+$0.18/sh	+$90 cycle +$200 [-$99…+$598] · 69% credit	77% surv 71%	-$40,988 NOT cap gain +$20,999
SS $456 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$550/mo
vs 50% target ($3,594/mo)	-85%
vs normal income ($7,188/mo)	8% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$9/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $395 is $76 below CC-SS $470.85: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$37,817
… as % of IC ($68,000)	55.6%
… as % of ML ($128,000)	29.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	5.3 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-61,992

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.22 collected) or spot ≥ $395.23 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $395)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $396.42 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $391.05	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $391-395.23	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $395.23	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.41 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$395.00 (1.9σ)	$110	$-48,654	+$13,333	+$105
+2.5%	$404.87 (2.9σ)	$-4,827	$-46,620	+$15,368	-$4,832
+5%	$414.75 (3.9σ)	$-9,765	$-44,586	+$17,402	-$9,770
SS (= V-bounce)	$456.00 (8.0σ)	$-30,390	$-36,088	+$25,899	-$29,895

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $470.85, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-61,988

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$66,776

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $395): -$37,817

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-33,028 (+$28,959 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,133 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-29,895, the opportunity cost of earning $550/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $419.75 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,265, position total $-43,556 (+$18,432 vs today)

▸

🛡 safe yield

5 × $389

17 Jul

3.4%

91%

19%

$295

$1,475

-$2,250

$40,632

Sell 5 × $389 3.4% OTM over spot $376.27 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.69 mid)

= $295 credit for the 6d cycle → $1,475/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $389)

91%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $389.69)

92%

EV / mo

+$902

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 5.4 mo [3.8-7.3] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (5.4 mo) · 23% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 18% without) · ~5.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,020

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

16%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,595

Free roll-up

+$2/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$402 @ 80% POP

75% survival

Buyback gross: $5.35/sh now → $3.78 mid-life (likely $3.25–$5.65) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.59/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.19/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 481 simulated challenges: the $389 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $391 (overshoots $2.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$389	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.80/sh	+$398 cycle +$693 [+$287…+$685] · 97% credit	67% surv 51%	-$52,307 NOT cap gain +$9,680
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$390	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.40/sh	+$200 cycle +$495 [+$59…+$452] · 83% credit	68% surv 53%	-$51,990 NOT cap gain +$9,998
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$399	31 Jul 2026	17d left	+$0.37/sh	+$185 cycle +$480 [-$174…+$481] · 61% credit	77% surv 70%	-$45,651 NOT cap gain +$16,337
Max even-money escape in the band	~$400	31 Jul 2026	17d left	+$0.01/sh	+$6 cycle +$301 [-$380…+$287] · 43% credit	78% surv 72%	-$45,124 NOT cap gain +$16,864
SS $456 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$402	31 Jul 2026	17d left	-$0.55/sh	-$275 cycle +$20 [-$712…-$19] · 24% credit	80% surv 75%	-$43,992 NOT cap gain +$17,995
budget: banked $295 debit $275 (93% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$20 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,851/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$1,475/mo
vs 50% target ($3,594/mo)	-59%
vs normal income ($7,188/mo)	21% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$934/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $389 is $82 below CC-SS $470.85: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$40,632
… as % of IC ($68,000)	59.8%
… as % of ML ($128,000)	31.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	5.7 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-62,035

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.59 collected) or spot ≥ $389.69 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $389)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $396.42 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $385.11	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $385-389.69	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $389.69	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.41 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$389.00 (1.3σ)	$295	$-52,705	+$9,282	+$290
+2.5%	$398.72 (2.3σ)	$-4,567	$-50,702	+$11,286	-$4,572
+5%	$408.45 (3.2σ)	$-9,430	$-48,698	+$13,289	-$9,435
SS (= V-bounce)	$456.00 (8.0σ)	$-33,205	$-38,903	+$23,084	-$32,710

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $470.85, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-61,988

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$66,776

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $389): -$40,632

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-35,843 (+$26,144 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,133 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-32,710, the opportunity cost of earning $1,475/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $419.75 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$15,080, position total $-46,371 (+$15,617 vs today)

▸

33% normal ← lean

5 × $386

17 Jul

2.6%

84%

31%

$525

$2,625

-$1,100

$41,902

Sell 5 × $386 2.6% OTM over spot $376.27 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $1.12 mid)

= $525 credit for the 6d cycle → $2,625/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $386)

84%

Breach risk

16%

POP (stays ≤ $387.12)

87%

EV / mo

+$1,400

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 5.6 mo [3.9-7.0] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (5.4 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 27% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 19% without) · ~9.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $10,069

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

25%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,318

Free roll-up

+$2/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$400 @ 81% POP

77% survival

Buyback gross: $5.21/sh now → $3.69 mid-life (likely $3.67–$5.99) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.64/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 764 simulated challenges: the $386 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $388 (overshoots $2.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$386	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.77/sh	+$386 cycle +$911 [+$219…+$533] · 98% credit	67% surv 51%	-$54,207 NOT cap gain +$7,780
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$394	31 Jul 2026	17d left	+$0.93/sh	+$466 cycle +$991 [+$27…+$647] · 77% credit	75% surv 67%	-$48,670 NOT cap gain +$13,318
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$387	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.38/sh	+$188 cycle +$713 [-$17…+$326] · 72% credit	68% surv 53%	-$53,890 NOT cap gain +$8,098
Max even-money escape in the band	~$396	31 Jul 2026	17d left	+$0.28/sh	+$141 cycle +$666 [-$366…+$295] · 45% credit	77% surv 70%	-$47,583 NOT cap gain +$14,405
SS $456 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$400	31 Jul 2026	17d left	-$0.84/sh	-$420 cycle +$105 [-$1,049…-$322] · 11% credit	81% surv 77%	-$45,320 NOT cap gain +$16,667
budget: banked $525 debit $420 (80% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$105 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,511/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,625/mo
vs 50% target ($3,594/mo)	-27%
vs normal income ($7,188/mo)	37% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,084/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $386 is $85 below CC-SS $470.85: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$41,902
… as % of IC ($68,000)	61.6%
… as % of ML ($128,000)	32.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	5.8 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-62,022

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.26/sh (~25% of the $1.05 collected) or spot ≥ $387.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $386)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $396.42 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $382.14	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $382-387.12	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $387.12	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.41 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$386.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$525	$-54,593	+$7,394	+$520
+2.5%	$395.65 (2.0σ)	$-4,300	$-52,605	+$9,382	-$4,305
+5%	$405.30 (2.9σ)	$-9,125	$-50,617	+$11,370	-$9,130
SS (= V-bounce)	$456.00 (8.0σ)	$-34,475	$-40,173	+$21,814	-$33,980

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $470.85, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-61,988

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$66,776

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $386): -$41,902

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-37,113 (+$24,874 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,133 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-33,980, the opportunity cost of earning $2,625/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $419.75 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$16,350, position total $-47,641 (+$14,347 vs today)

▸

🎯 50% normal

5 × $384

17 Jul

2.1%

79%

34%

$745

$3,725

—

$42,682

Sell 5 × $384 2.1% OTM over spot $376.27 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $1.58 mid)

= $745 credit for the 6d cycle → $3,725/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $384)

79%

Breach risk

21%

POP (stays ≤ $385.58)

83%

EV / mo

+$1,721

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 5.3 mo [3.8-6.9] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (5.3 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 27% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 17% without) · ~13.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $13,633

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

34%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,067

Free roll-up

+$2/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$400 @ 83% POP

80% survival

Buyback gross: $5.13/sh now → $3.62 mid-life (likely $3.73–$6.09) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.49/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.13/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,011 simulated challenges: the $384 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $386 (overshoots $2.49). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$384	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.76/sh	+$378 cycle +$1,123 [+$187…+$503] · 95% credit	67% surv 51%	-$55,407 NOT cap gain +$6,580
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$392	31 Jul 2026	17d left	+$0.87/sh	+$435 cycle +$1,180 [-$29…+$543] · 72% credit	75% surv 67%	-$49,893 NOT cap gain +$12,095
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$385	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.36/sh	+$180 cycle +$925 [-$40…+$281] · 66% credit	68% surv 53%	-$55,090 NOT cap gain +$6,898
Max even-money escape in the band	~$394	31 Jul 2026	17d left	+$0.22/sh	+$112 cycle +$857 [-$415…+$199] · 37% credit	77% surv 71%	-$48,803 NOT cap gain +$13,184
SS $456 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$400	31 Jul 2026	17d left	-$1.35/sh	-$674 cycle +$71 [-$1,401…-$662] · 3% credit	83% surv 80%	-$45,353 NOT cap gain +$16,634
budget: banked $745 debit $674 (90% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$71 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,009/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$3,725/mo
vs 50% target ($3,594/mo)	+4%
vs normal income ($7,188/mo)	52% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,184/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $384 is $87 below CC-SS $470.85: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$42,682
… as % of IC ($68,000)	62.8%
… as % of ML ($128,000)	33.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	5.9 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-62,035

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.37/sh (~25% of the $1.49 collected) or spot ≥ $385.58 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $384)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $396.42 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $380.16	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $380-385.58	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $385.58	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.41 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$384.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$745	$-55,785	+$6,202	+$740
+2.5%	$393.60 (1.7σ)	$-4,055	$-53,808	+$8,180	-$4,060
+5%	$403.20 (2.7σ)	$-8,855	$-51,830	+$10,158	-$8,860
SS (= V-bounce)	$456.00 (8.0σ)	$-35,255	$-40,953	+$21,034	-$34,760

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $470.85, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-61,988

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$66,776

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $384): -$42,682

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-37,893 (+$24,094 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,133 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-34,760, the opportunity cost of earning $3,725/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $419.75 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$17,130, position total $-48,421 (+$13,567 vs today)

▸

100% normal

5 × $379

17 Jul

0.7%

61%

78%

$1,600

$8,000

+$4,275

$44,327

Sell 5 × $379 0.7% OTM over spot $376.27 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $3.33 mid)

= $1,600 credit for the 6d cycle → $8,000/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $379)

61%

Breach risk

39%

POP (stays ≤ $382.32)

73%

EV / mo

+$2,428

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 5.9 mo [3.8-7.5] median, 0.4 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (5.5 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 30% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 18% without) · ~32.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $20,940

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

63%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$136

Free roll-up

+$2/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$402 @ 90% POP

89% survival

Buyback gross: $4.91/sh now → $3.47 mid-life (likely $4.53–$6.71) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.27/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,884 simulated challenges: the $379 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 6, at $382 (overshoots $2.61). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$379	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.72/sh	+$358 cycle +$1,958 [+$90…+$260] · 89% credit	67% surv 51%	-$58,102 NOT cap gain +$3,885
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$386	31 Jul 2026	17d left	+$1.11/sh	+$554 cycle +$2,154 [-$66…+$341] · 69% credit	74% surv 65%	-$53,155 NOT cap gain +$8,832
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$380	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.32/sh	+$160 cycle +$1,760 [-$150…+$49] · 33% credit	68% surv 53%	-$57,784 NOT cap gain +$4,203
Max even-money escape in the band	~$389	31 Jul 2026	17d left	+$0.09/sh	+$43 cycle +$1,643 [-$706…-$214] · 14% credit	78% surv 71%	-$51,548 NOT cap gain +$10,440
SS $456 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$402	31 Jul 2026	17d left	-$2.40/sh	-$1,198 cycle +$402 [-$2,401…-$1,606]	90% surv 89%	-$43,611 NOT cap gain +$18,377
budget: banked $1,600 debit $1,198 (75% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$402 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $949/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$8,000/mo
vs 50% target ($3,594/mo)	+123%
vs normal income ($7,188/mo)	111% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$7,459/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $379 is $92 below CC-SS $470.85: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$44,327
… as % of IC ($68,000)	65.2%
… as % of ML ($128,000)	34.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	6.2 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-62,050

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.80/sh (~25% of the $3.20 collected) or spot ≥ $382.32 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $379)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $396.42 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $375.21	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $375-382.32	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $382.32	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.41 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$379.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,600	$-58,460	+$3,527	+$1,595
+2.5%	$388.47 (1.2σ)	$-3,137	$-56,508	+$5,479	-$3,142
+5%	$397.95 (2.2σ)	$-7,875	$-54,556	+$7,431	-$7,880
SS (= V-bounce)	$456.00 (8.0σ)	$-36,900	$-42,598	+$19,389	-$36,405

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $470.85, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-61,988

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$66,776

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $379): -$44,327

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-39,538 (+$22,449 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,133 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-36,405, the opportunity cost of earning $8,000/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $419.75 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$18,775, position total $-50,066 (+$11,922 vs today)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on GLD are the tiebreakers.

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (91 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (6 expiries scanned, 91 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.412 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$66,776 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,133

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$383	4d	15 Jul 2026	$1.10	5/5	$4,125	$3,584	80%	84%	+$2,001	-$43,377	63.8%	$-38,588 (vs do-nothing $-35,455)
$384	6d	17 Jul 2026	$1.49	5/5	$3,725	$3,184	79%	83%	+$1,721	-$42,682	62.8%	$-37,893 (vs do-nothing $-34,760)
$382	4d	15 Jul 2026	$1.35	4/5	$4,050	$3,511	77%	82%	+$1,828	-$35,002	51.5%	$-31,797 (vs do-nothing $-28,664)
$383	6d	17 Jul 2026	$1.76	5/5	$4,400	$3,859	76%	81%	+$1,893	-$43,047	63.3%	$-38,258 (vs do-nothing $-35,125)
$381	4d	15 Jul 2026	$1.65	3/5	$3,712	$3,177	73%	79%	+$1,555	-$26,461	38.9%	$-24,841 (vs do-nothing $-21,708)
$383	9d	20 Jul 2026	$2.17	5/5	$3,617	$3,075	72%	79%	+$1,214	-$42,842	63.0%	$-38,053 (vs do-nothing $-34,920)
$382	6d	17 Jul 2026	$2.07	4/5	$4,140	$3,601	72%	79%	+$1,654	-$34,714	51.0%	$-31,509 (vs do-nothing $-28,376)
$383	11d	22 Jul 2026	$2.72	5/5	$3,709	$3,168	70%	77%	+$1,120	-$42,567	62.6%	$-37,778 (vs do-nothing $-34,645)
$382	9d	20 Jul 2026	$2.45	5/5	$4,083	$3,542	69%	77%	+$1,231	-$43,202	63.5%	$-38,413 (vs do-nothing $-35,280)
$381	6d	17 Jul 2026	$2.41	3/5	$3,615	$3,079	69%	77%	+$1,326	-$26,233	38.6%	$-24,613 (vs do-nothing $-21,480)
$380	4d	15 Jul 2026	$1.99	3/5	$4,478	$3,942	68%	77%	+$1,715	-$26,659	39.2%	$-25,039 (vs do-nothing $-21,906)
$383	13d	24 Jul 2026	$3.35	5/5	$3,865	$3,324	68%	76%	+$1,192	-$42,252	62.1%	$-37,463 (vs do-nothing $-34,330)
$382	11d	22 Jul 2026	$3.05	5/5	$4,159	$3,618	67%	76%	+$1,169	-$42,902	63.1%	$-38,113 (vs do-nothing $-34,980)

Show 78 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 78.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$381	9d	20 Jul 2026	$2.85	4/5	$3,800	$3,261	66%	75%	+$1,109	-$34,802	51.2%	$-31,597 (vs do-nothing $-28,464)
$382	13d	24 Jul 2026	$3.70	5/5	$4,269	$3,728	66%	75%	+$1,239	-$42,577	62.6%	$-37,788 (vs do-nothing $-34,655)
$380	6d	17 Jul 2026	$2.79	3/5	$4,185	$3,649	65%	75%	+$1,404	-$26,419	38.9%	$-24,799 (vs do-nothing $-21,666)
$383	20d	31 Jul 2026	$5.00	5/5	$3,750	$3,209	65%	74%	+$1,008	-$41,427	60.9%	$-36,638 (vs do-nothing $-33,505)
$381	11d	22 Jul 2026	$3.40	4/5	$3,709	$3,171	65%	74%	+$960	-$34,582	50.9%	$-31,377 (vs do-nothing $-28,244)
$379	4d	15 Jul 2026	$2.37	3/5	$5,333	$4,797	64%	75%	+$1,838	-$26,845	39.5%	$-25,225 (vs do-nothing $-22,092)
$381	13d	24 Jul 2026	$4.10	4/5	$3,785	$3,246	63%	73%	+$1,047	-$34,302	50.4%	$-31,097 (vs do-nothing $-27,964)
$380	9d	20 Jul 2026	$3.20	4/5	$4,267	$3,728	63%	73%	+$1,114	-$35,062	51.6%	$-31,857 (vs do-nothing $-28,724)
$382	20d	31 Jul 2026	$5.40	5/5	$4,050	$3,509	63%	73%	+$1,043	-$41,727	61.4%	$-36,938 (vs do-nothing $-33,805)
$380	11d	22 Jul 2026	$3.85	4/5	$4,200	$3,661	62%	72%	+$1,055	-$34,802	51.2%	$-31,597 (vs do-nothing $-28,464)
$379	6d	17 Jul 2026	$3.20	3/5	$4,800	$4,264	61%	73%	+$1,457	-$26,596	39.1%	$-24,976 (vs do-nothing $-21,843)
$380	13d	24 Jul 2026	$4.55	4/5	$4,200	$3,661	61%	72%	+$1,118	-$34,522	50.8%	$-31,317 (vs do-nothing $-28,184)
$381	20d	31 Jul 2026	$5.80	5/5	$4,350	$3,809	61%	72%	+$1,059	-$42,027	61.8%	$-37,238 (vs do-nothing $-34,105)
$379	9d	20 Jul 2026	$3.65	3/5	$3,650	$3,114	60%	72%	+$898	-$26,461	38.9%	$-24,841 (vs do-nothing $-21,708)
$378	4d	15 Jul 2026	$2.80	2/5	$4,200	$3,667	59%	72%	+$1,292	-$18,011	26.5%	$-17,975 (vs do-nothing $-14,842)
$379	11d	22 Jul 2026	$3.85	4/5	$4,200	$3,661	59%	70%	+$619	-$35,202	51.8%	$-31,997 (vs do-nothing $-28,864)
$380	20d	31 Jul 2026	$6.25	4/5	$3,750	$3,211	59%	71%	+$874	-$33,842	49.8%	$-30,637 (vs do-nothing $-27,504)
$379	13d	24 Jul 2026	$4.95	4/5	$4,569	$4,031	58%	71%	+$1,112	-$34,762	51.1%	$-31,557 (vs do-nothing $-28,424)
$378	6d	17 Jul 2026	$3.65	2/5	$3,650	$3,117	57%	71%	+$998	-$17,841	26.2%	$-17,805 (vs do-nothing $-14,672)
$379	20d	31 Jul 2026	$6.70	4/5	$4,020	$3,481	57%	70%	+$886	-$34,062	50.1%	$-30,857 (vs do-nothing $-27,724)
$378	9d	20 Jul 2026	$4.10	3/5	$4,100	$3,564	56%	70%	+$918	-$26,626	39.2%	$-25,006 (vs do-nothing $-21,873)
$378	11d	22 Jul 2026	$4.70	3/5	$3,845	$3,310	56%	70%	+$803	-$26,446	38.9%	$-24,826 (vs do-nothing $-21,693)
$378	13d	24 Jul 2026	$5.45	3/5	$3,773	$3,237	55%	70%	+$876	-$26,221	38.6%	$-24,601 (vs do-nothing $-21,468)
$378	20d	31 Jul 2026	$7.20	4/5	$4,320	$3,781	55%	69%	+$913	-$34,262	50.4%	$-31,057 (vs do-nothing $-27,924)
$377	4d	15 Jul 2026	$3.25	2/5	$4,875	$4,342	54%	70%	+$1,295	-$18,121	26.6%	$-18,085 (vs do-nothing $-14,952)
$377	6d	17 Jul 2026	$4.15	2/5	$4,150	$3,617	53%	69%	+$1,026	-$17,941	26.4%	$-17,905 (vs do-nothing $-14,772)
$377	9d	20 Jul 2026	$4.60	3/5	$4,600	$4,064	53%	68%	+$946	-$26,776	39.4%	$-25,156 (vs do-nothing $-22,023)
$377	11d	22 Jul 2026	$5.20	3/5	$4,255	$3,719	53%	68%	+$825	-$26,596	39.1%	$-24,976 (vs do-nothing $-21,843)
$377	13d	24 Jul 2026	$5.95	3/5	$4,119	$3,583	53%	68%	+$893	-$26,371	38.8%	$-24,751 (vs do-nothing $-21,618)
$377	20d	31 Jul 2026	$7.75	4/5	$4,650	$4,111	53%	68%	+$954	-$34,442	50.6%	$-31,237 (vs do-nothing $-28,104)
$376	20d	31 Jul 2026	$8.25	3/5	$3,712	$3,177	50%	67%	+$712	-$25,981	38.2%	$-24,361 (vs do-nothing $-21,228)
$376	13d	24 Jul 2026	$6.50	3/5	$4,500	$3,964	50%	67%	+$922	-$26,506	39.0%	$-24,886 (vs do-nothing $-21,753)
$376	11d	22 Jul 2026	$5.80	3/5	$4,745	$4,210	50%	67%	+$899	-$26,716	39.3%	$-25,096 (vs do-nothing $-21,963)
$376	9d	20 Jul 2026	$5.15	3/5	$5,150	$4,614	50%	67%	+$982	-$26,911	39.6%	$-25,291 (vs do-nothing $-22,158)
$376	6d	17 Jul 2026	$4.65	2/5	$4,650	$4,117	50%	67%	+$1,006	-$18,041	26.5%	$-18,005 (vs do-nothing $-14,872)
$376	4d	15 Jul 2026	$3.80	2/5	$5,700	$5,167	49%	68%	+$1,354	-$18,211	26.8%	$-18,175 (vs do-nothing $-15,042)
$375	20d	31 Jul 2026	$8.80	3/5	$3,960	$3,424	48%	66%	+$719	-$26,116	38.4%	$-24,496 (vs do-nothing $-21,363)
$375	13d	24 Jul 2026	$7.05	3/5	$4,881	$4,345	47%	66%	+$927	-$26,641	39.2%	$-25,021 (vs do-nothing $-21,888)
$375	11d	22 Jul 2026	$6.40	3/5	$5,236	$4,701	47%	66%	+$942	-$26,836	39.5%	$-25,216 (vs do-nothing $-22,083)
$375	9d	20 Jul 2026	$5.40	2/5	$3,600	$3,067	46%	65%	+$451	-$18,091	26.6%	$-18,055 (vs do-nothing $-14,922)
$374	20d	31 Jul 2026	$9.40	3/5	$4,230	$3,694	46%	65%	+$737	-$26,236	38.6%	$-24,616 (vs do-nothing $-21,483)
$375	6d	17 Jul 2026	$5.25	2/5	$5,250	$4,717	45%	66%	+$1,222	-$18,121	26.6%	$-18,085 (vs do-nothing $-14,952)
$374	13d	24 Jul 2026	$7.65	3/5	$5,296	$4,760	45%	65%	+$944	-$26,761	39.4%	$-25,141 (vs do-nothing $-22,008)
$373	20d	31 Jul 2026	$10.00	3/5	$4,500	$3,964	44%	65%	+$744	-$26,356	38.8%	$-24,736 (vs do-nothing $-21,603)
$375	4d	15 Jul 2026	$4.35	2/5	$6,525	$5,992	44%	65%	+$1,320	-$18,301	26.9%	$-18,265 (vs do-nothing $-15,132)
$374	11d	22 Jul 2026	$6.95	2/5	$3,791	$3,258	44%	64%	+$610	-$17,981	26.4%	$-17,945 (vs do-nothing $-14,812)
$374	9d	20 Jul 2026	$6.20	2/5	$4,133	$3,600	43%	64%	+$586	-$18,131	26.7%	$-18,095 (vs do-nothing $-14,962)
$372	20d	31 Jul 2026	$10.60	3/5	$4,770	$4,234	42%	64%	+$740	-$26,476	38.9%	$-24,856 (vs do-nothing $-21,723)
$373	13d	24 Jul 2026	$8.25	2/5	$3,808	$3,275	42%	64%	+$626	-$17,921	26.4%	$-17,885 (vs do-nothing $-14,752)
$374	6d	17 Jul 2026	$5.85	2/5	$5,850	$5,317	41%	65%	+$1,243	-$18,201	26.8%	$-18,165 (vs do-nothing $-15,032)
$373	11d	22 Jul 2026	$7.60	2/5	$4,145	$3,612	41%	63%	+$627	-$18,051	26.5%	$-18,015 (vs do-nothing $-14,882)
$371	20d	31 Jul 2026	$11.20	3/5	$5,040	$4,504	40%	63%	+$724	-$26,596	39.1%	$-24,976 (vs do-nothing $-21,843)
$373	9d	20 Jul 2026	$6.80	2/5	$4,533	$4,000	40%	63%	+$563	-$18,211	26.8%	$-18,175 (vs do-nothing $-15,042)
$374	4d	15 Jul 2026	$4.95	1/5	$3,712	$3,182	40%	64%	+$637	-$9,190	13.5%	$-10,739 (vs do-nothing $-7,606)
$372	13d	24 Jul 2026	$8.85	2/5	$4,085	$3,552	40%	63%	+$607	-$18,001	26.5%	$-17,965 (vs do-nothing $-14,832)
$372	11d	22 Jul 2026	$8.10	2/5	$4,418	$3,885	39%	62%	+$544	-$18,151	26.7%	$-18,115 (vs do-nothing $-14,982)
$370	20d	31 Jul 2026	$11.85	3/5	$5,332	$4,797	38%	62%	+$721	-$26,701	39.3%	$-25,081 (vs do-nothing $-21,948)
$373	6d	17 Jul 2026	$6.45	2/5	$6,450	$5,917	38%	64%	+$1,218	-$18,281	26.9%	$-18,245 (vs do-nothing $-15,112)
$371	13d	24 Jul 2026	$9.50	2/5	$4,385	$3,852	37%	62%	+$599	-$18,071	26.6%	$-18,035 (vs do-nothing $-14,902)
$372	9d	20 Jul 2026	$7.55	2/5	$5,033	$4,500	37%	62%	+$614	-$18,261	26.9%	$-18,225 (vs do-nothing $-15,092)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-11 03:39