FORTRESS FIGHT: GLD @ $377.90

BE SS: $456.00 | CC-SS: $470.76 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GLD @ $377.90 UNDERWATER $78.10 (17.1% below BE SS)

PARTIAL: 5 of 10 contracts already capped (5x $390C). FIGHTing the 5 uncapped; all figures (income, hedge, cap give-up) are for that slice.

5 of 10 contracts (500 sh uncapped) | BE SS: $456.00 | CC-SS: $470.76 | IV: LOW | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $320 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $173.979/sh)

SP: $450 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $43.857/sh)

HP: $330 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $4.500/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$128,000	(ND $136.00 + SW $120) x 500
Normal income ref	$6,635/mo	45% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$526/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-59,625	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$3,317/mo

HEDGE COVER
$526/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$6,635/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
10.2 mo to earn back $68,000

ML VELOCITY
19.3 mo to earn back $128,000

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $470.76 (probe: $470C 13d) brings only $12/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$248

Hole (after banked)

$59,377

was $59,625 · 0% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$676

CC-SS ratchet

$510.40 → $470.76

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
5x $390C 17 Jul 2026	U10001299	$1.35	$676	2026-07-10

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYPULLBACK · %B 16 (live) · RSI 39 · MACD bearish, hist rising

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 43 · %B 47 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELS20W MA (bounce target) $419.79 (+11%) · daily UBB $396.48 · 1-wk expected move ±$11 (chain IV)

SETUPSpring loaded, not ignited: 🎯 or 💎 at short DTE, normal tripwires. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 5 contracts at $385 / 6d. This is the safest strike (survival 78%, breach 22%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($3,317/mo); it brings $3,550/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 5 × $380/6d for $7,350/mo, but breach risk rises to 41% (+19pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 5 × $394/6d (95% survival, $575/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $42,170 (62% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $456, recoverable in 6.4 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 5 contracts realizes $-59,655 and cuts bleed by $526/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 (6d) · sell 5 × $385, 78% survival, $3,550/mo (E[net] $709/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆	17 Jul 2026 · 6d	5 × $385	78%	$3,550	$709

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 6d · E[net] $709/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 5 × $385 (primary), 78% survival, breach 22%, $3,550/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $387 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 83% (breach 22% → 17%) for $1,200/mo less (34% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $387 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect GLD to stay flat-to-down near term.

GLD spot $377.90 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

5 × $394

17 Jul

4.3%

95%

10%

$115

$575

-$2,975

$38,265

Sell 5 × $394 4.3% OTM over spot $377.90 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.29 mid)

= $115 credit for the 6d cycle → $575/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $394)

95%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $394.29)

95%

EV / mo

+$367

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 7.4 mo [7.0-8.0] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (7.6 mo) · 4% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 2% without) · ~2.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $-237

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,676

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$406 @ 78% POP

73% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $5.06/sh now → $3.58 mid-life (likely $2.98–$5.41) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.23/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.35/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 213 simulated challenges: the $394 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 6, at $397 (overshoots $2.68). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$394	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.53/sh	+$267 cycle +$382 [+$159…+$568] · 89% credit	65% surv 51%	-$51,998 NOT cap gain +$7,627
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$404	31 Jul 2026	17d left	+$0.34/sh	+$172 cycle +$287 [-$192…+$519] · 66% credit	76% surv 70%	-$47,548 NOT cap gain +$12,077
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$395	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.03/sh	+$16 cycle +$131 [-$159…+$282] · 60% credit	67% surv 55%	-$51,754 NOT cap gain +$7,871
Max even-money escape in the band	~$405	31 Jul 2026	17d left	+$0.03/sh	+$16 cycle +$131 [-$366…+$352] · 55% credit	77% surv 72%	-$47,254 NOT cap gain +$12,371
SS $456 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$406	31 Jul 2026	17d left	-$0.23/sh	-$113 cycle +$2 [-$514…+$214] · 41% credit	78% surv 73%	-$46,933 NOT cap gain +$12,692
budget: banked $115 debit $113 (99% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,960/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$575/mo
vs 50% target ($3,317/mo)	-83%
vs normal income ($6,635/mo)	9% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$49/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $394 is $77 below CC-SS $470.76: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$38,265
… as % of IC ($68,000)	56.3%
… as % of ML ($128,000)	29.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	5.8 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-59,652

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.23 collected) or spot ≥ $394.29 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $394)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $396.48 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $390.06	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $390-394.29	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $394.29	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$394.00 (1.6σ)	$115	$-52,265	+$7,360	+$110
+2.5%	$403.85 (2.6σ)	$-4,810	$-52,757	+$6,868	-$4,815
+5%	$413.70 (3.6σ)	$-9,735	$-53,250	+$6,375	-$9,740
SS (= V-bounce)	$456.00 (7.9σ)	$-30,885	$-55,365	+$4,260	-$30,390

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $470.76, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-59,625

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$41,787

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $394): -$38,265

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-56,103 (+$3,522 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-25,713 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-30,390, the opportunity cost of earning $575/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $419.79 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,780, position total $-53,554 (+$6,071 vs today)

▸

🛡 safe yield

5 × $390

17 Jul

3.2%

90%

20%

$275

$1,375

-$2,175

$40,105

Sell 5 × $390 3.2% OTM over spot $377.90 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.58 mid)

= $275 credit for the 6d cycle → $1,375/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $390)

90%

Breach risk

10%

POP (stays ≤ $390.58)

91%

EV / mo

+$781

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 6.9 mo [5.7-8.0] median, 0.4 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (6.5 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 8% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 5% without) · ~6.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,652

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

16%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,456

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$403 @ 80% POP

76% survival

Buyback gross: $4.90/sh now → $3.46 mid-life (likely $3.01–$5.17) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.91/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 485 simulated challenges: the $390 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $392 (overshoots $2.29). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$390	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.51/sh	+$255 cycle +$530 [+$136…+$499] · 90% credit	65% surv 51%	-$53,650 NOT cap gain +$5,975
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$399	31 Jul 2026	17d left	+$0.54/sh	+$270 cycle +$545 [-$42…+$541] · 71% credit	76% surv 69%	-$49,540 NOT cap gain +$10,085
Max even-money escape in the band	~$400	31 Jul 2026	17d left	+$0.24/sh	+$118 cycle +$393 [-$218…+$376] · 54% credit	77% surv 71%	-$49,242 NOT cap gain +$10,383
SS $456 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$391	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.01/sh	+$4 cycle +$279 [-$158…+$199] · 47% credit	67% surv 55%	-$53,406 NOT cap gain +$6,219
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$403	31 Jul 2026	17d left	-$0.53/sh	-$267 cycle +$8 [-$672…-$47] · 24% credit	80% surv 76%	-$48,277 NOT cap gain +$11,348
budget: banked $275 debit $267 (97% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$8 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,583/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$1,375/mo
vs 50% target ($3,317/mo)	-59%
vs normal income ($6,635/mo)	21% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$849/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $390 is $81 below CC-SS $470.76: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$40,105
… as % of IC ($68,000)	59.0%
… as % of ML ($128,000)	31.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	6.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-59,642

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.55 collected) or spot ≥ $390.58 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $390)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $396.48 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $386.10	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $386-390.58	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $390.58	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$390.00 (1.2σ)	$275	$-53,905	+$5,720	+$270
+2.5%	$399.75 (2.2σ)	$-4,600	$-54,392	+$5,233	-$4,605
+5%	$409.50 (3.2σ)	$-9,475	$-54,880	+$4,745	-$9,480
SS (= V-bounce)	$456.00 (7.9σ)	$-32,725	$-57,205	+$2,420	-$32,230

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $470.76, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-59,625

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$41,787

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $390): -$40,105

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-57,943 (+$1,682 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-25,713 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-32,230, the opportunity cost of earning $1,375/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $419.79 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$14,620, position total $-55,394 (+$4,231 vs today)

▸

33% normal ← lean

5 × $387

17 Jul

2.4%

83%

33%

$470

$2,350

-$1,200

$41,410

Sell 5 × $387 2.4% OTM over spot $377.90 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $1.01 mid)

= $470 credit for the 6d cycle → $2,350/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $387)

83%

Breach risk

17%

POP (stays ≤ $388.01)

86%

EV / mo

+$1,044

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 6.8 mo [5.9-7.5] median, 0.5 mo faster than no FIGHT (7.3 mo) · 8% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 4% without) · ~11.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,810

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

26%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,217

Free roll-up

+$0/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$401 @ 81% POP

78% survival

Buyback gross: $4.77/sh now → $3.37 mid-life (likely $3.26–$5.45) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.94/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.43/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 774 simulated challenges: the $387 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $389 (overshoots $2.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$387	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.49/sh	+$246 cycle +$716 [+$51…+$390] · 83% credit	65% surv 51%	-$54,814 NOT cap gain +$4,811
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$387	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.44/sh	+$219 cycle +$689 [+$19…+$360] · 79% credit	65% surv 51%	-$54,796 NOT cap gain +$4,829
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$395	31 Jul 2026	17d left	+$0.81/sh	+$403 cycle +$873 [-$7…+$575] · 75% credit	75% surv 67%	-$51,012 NOT cap gain +$8,613
Max even-money escape in the band	~$397	31 Jul 2026	17d left	+$0.16/sh	+$79 cycle +$549 [-$393…+$221] · 42% credit	77% surv 71%	-$50,436 NOT cap gain +$9,189
SS $456 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$401	31 Jul 2026	17d left	-$0.89/sh	-$445 cycle +$25 [-$1,027…-$342] · 11% credit	81% surv 78%	-$49,160 NOT cap gain +$10,465
budget: banked $470 debit $445 (95% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$25 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,193/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,350/mo
vs 50% target ($3,317/mo)	-29%
vs normal income ($6,635/mo)	35% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,824/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $387 is $84 below CC-SS $470.76: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$41,410
… as % of IC ($68,000)	60.9%
… as % of ML ($128,000)	32.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	6.2 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-59,660

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.23/sh (~25% of the $0.94 collected) or spot ≥ $388.01 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $387)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $396.48 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $383.13	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $383-388.01	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $388.01	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$387.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$470	$-55,060	+$4,565	+$465
+2.5%	$396.67 (1.9σ)	$-4,367	$-55,544	+$4,081	-$4,372
+5%	$406.35 (2.9σ)	$-9,205	$-56,027	+$3,598	-$9,210
SS (= V-bounce)	$456.00 (7.9σ)	$-34,030	$-58,510	+$1,115	-$33,535

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $470.76, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-59,625

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$41,787

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $387): -$41,410

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-59,248 (+$377 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-25,713 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-33,535, the opportunity cost of earning $2,350/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $419.79 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$15,925, position total $-56,699 (+$2,926 vs today)

▸

🎯 50% normal

5 × $385

17 Jul

1.9%

78%

34%

$710

$3,550

—

$42,170

Sell 5 × $385 1.9% OTM over spot $377.90 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $1.48 mid)

= $710 credit for the 6d cycle → $3,550/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $385)

78%

Breach risk

22%

POP (stays ≤ $386.48)

82%

EV / mo

+$1,420

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 6.7 mo [5.6-7.9] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (7.0 mo) · 9% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 4% without) · ~15.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $12,889

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

34%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$948

Free roll-up

+$0/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$401 @ 84% POP

81% survival

Buyback gross: $4.69/sh now → $3.32 mid-life (likely $3.54–$5.66) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.42/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.90/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,028 simulated challenges: the $385 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $387 (overshoots $2.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$385	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.48/sh	+$241 cycle +$951 [+$18…+$328] · 78% credit	65% surv 51%	-$55,479 NOT cap gain +$4,146
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$385	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.43/sh	+$214 cycle +$924 [-$15…+$295] · 71% credit	65% surv 51%	-$55,461 NOT cap gain +$4,164
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$393	31 Jul 2026	17d left	+$0.75/sh	+$375 cycle +$1,085 [-$96…+$401] · 67% credit	75% surv 68%	-$51,700 NOT cap gain +$7,925
Max even-money escape in the band	~$395	31 Jul 2026	17d left	+$0.11/sh	+$53 cycle +$763 [-$485…+$52] · 30% credit	77% surv 71%	-$51,122 NOT cap gain +$8,503
SS $456 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$401	31 Jul 2026	17d left	-$1.33/sh	-$664 cycle +$46 [-$1,393…-$712] · 2% credit	84% surv 81%	-$49,139 NOT cap gain +$10,486
budget: banked $710 debit $664 (94% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$46 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,755/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$3,550/mo
vs 50% target ($3,317/mo)	+7%
vs normal income ($6,635/mo)	54% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,024/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $385 is $86 below CC-SS $470.76: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$42,170
… as % of IC ($68,000)	62.0%
… as % of ML ($128,000)	32.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	6.4 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-59,655

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.35/sh (~25% of the $1.42 collected) or spot ≥ $386.48 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $385)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $396.48 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $381.15	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $381-386.48	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $386.48	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$385.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$710	$-55,720	+$3,905	+$705
+2.5%	$394.62 (1.7σ)	$-4,102	$-56,201	+$3,424	-$4,107
+5%	$404.25 (2.7σ)	$-8,915	$-56,682	+$2,943	-$8,920
SS (= V-bounce)	$456.00 (7.9σ)	$-34,790	$-59,270	+$355	-$34,295

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $470.76, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-59,625

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$41,787

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $385): -$42,170

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-60,008 ($-383 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-25,713 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-34,295, the opportunity cost of earning $3,550/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $419.79 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$16,685, position total $-57,459 (+$2,166 vs today)

▸

100% normal

5 × $380

17 Jul

0.6%

59%

83%

$1,470

$7,350

+$3,800

$43,910

Sell 5 × $380 0.6% OTM over spot $377.90 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $3.12 mid)

= $1,470 credit for the 6d cycle → $7,350/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $380)

59%

Breach risk

41%

POP (stays ≤ $383.12)

71%

EV / mo

+$1,361

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 6.4 mo [5.2-7.6] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (6.3 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 14% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 6% without) · ~38.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $18,751

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

65%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$117

Free roll-up

+$0/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$402 @ 90% POP

89% survival

Buyback gross: $4.49/sh now → $3.17 mid-life (likely $4.22–$6.18) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.94/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.23/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,963 simulated challenges: the $380 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 6, at $383 (overshoots $2.60). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$387	31 Jul 2026	17d left	+$0.95/sh	+$474 cycle +$1,944 [-$128…+$235] · 62% credit	74% surv 66%	-$53,541 NOT cap gain +$6,084
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$380	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.45/sh	+$227 cycle +$1,697 [-$85…+$110] · 52% credit	65% surv 51%	-$56,983 NOT cap gain +$2,642
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$380	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.40/sh	+$200 cycle +$1,670 [-$119…+$81] · 42% credit	65% surv 51%	-$56,965 NOT cap gain +$2,660
Max even-money escape in the band	~$389	31 Jul 2026	17d left	+$0.27/sh	+$136 cycle +$1,606 [-$549…-$145] · 16% credit	76% surv 70%	-$52,979 NOT cap gain +$6,646
SS $456 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$402	31 Jul 2026	17d left	-$2.16/sh	-$1,081 cycle +$389 [-$2,196…-$1,482]	90% surv 89%	-$48,346 NOT cap gain +$11,279
budget: banked $1,470 debit $1,081 (74% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$389 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $892/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$7,350/mo
vs 50% target ($3,317/mo)	+122%
vs normal income ($6,635/mo)	111% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$6,824/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $380 is $91 below CC-SS $470.76: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$43,910
… as % of IC ($68,000)	64.6%
… as % of ML ($128,000)	34.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	6.6 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-59,715

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.73/sh (~25% of the $2.94 collected) or spot ≥ $383.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $380)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $396.48 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $376.20	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $376-383.12	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $383.12	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$380.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,470	$-57,210	+$2,415	+$1,465
+2.5%	$389.50 (1.2σ)	$-3,280	$-57,685	+$1,940	-$3,285
+5%	$399.00 (2.1σ)	$-8,030	$-58,160	+$1,465	-$8,035
SS (= V-bounce)	$456.00 (7.9σ)	$-36,530	$-61,010	-$1,385	-$36,035

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $470.76, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-59,625

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$41,787

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $380): -$43,910

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-61,748 ($-2,123 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-25,713 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-36,035, the opportunity cost of earning $7,350/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $419.79 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$18,425, position total $-59,199 (+$426 vs today)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on GLD are the tiebreakers.

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (86 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (6 expiries scanned, 86 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$41,787 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-25,713

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$384	4d	15 Jul 2026	$0.92	5/5	$3,450	$2,924	79%	82%	+$1,024	-$42,920	63.1%	$-60,758 (vs do-nothing $-35,045)
$385	6d	17 Jul 2026	$1.42	5/5	$3,550	$3,024	78%	82%	+$1,420	-$42,170	62.0%	$-60,008 (vs do-nothing $-34,295)
$383	4d	15 Jul 2026	$1.18	4/5	$3,540	$3,017	75%	80%	+$984	-$34,632	50.9%	$-54,045 (vs do-nothing $-28,332)
$384	6d	17 Jul 2026	$1.53	5/5	$3,825	$3,299	74%	79%	+$1,146	-$42,615	62.7%	$-60,453 (vs do-nothing $-34,740)
$383	6d	17 Jul 2026	$1.88	4/5	$3,760	$3,237	71%	77%	+$1,094	-$34,352	50.5%	$-53,765 (vs do-nothing $-28,052)
$382	4d	15 Jul 2026	$1.43	4/5	$4,290	$3,767	70%	77%	+$969	-$34,932	51.4%	$-54,345 (vs do-nothing $-28,632)
$385	13d	24 Jul 2026	$2.89	5/5	$3,335	$2,809	69%	76%	+$744	-$41,435	60.9%	$-59,273 (vs do-nothing $-33,560)
$384	11d	22 Jul 2026	$2.54	5/5	$3,464	$2,938	68%	75%	+$642	-$42,110	61.9%	$-59,948 (vs do-nothing $-34,235)
$383	9d	20 Jul 2026	$2.28	5/5	$3,800	$3,274	68%	75%	+$768	-$42,740	62.9%	$-60,578 (vs do-nothing $-34,865)
$382	6d	17 Jul 2026	$2.16	4/5	$4,320	$3,797	67%	75%	+$1,042	-$34,640	50.9%	$-54,053 (vs do-nothing $-28,340)
$384	13d	24 Jul 2026	$3.20	5/5	$3,692	$3,167	67%	74%	+$751	-$41,780	61.4%	$-59,618 (vs do-nothing $-33,905)
$383	11d	22 Jul 2026	$2.87	5/5	$3,914	$3,388	66%	74%	+$666	-$42,445	62.4%	$-60,283 (vs do-nothing $-34,570)
$381	4d	15 Jul 2026	$1.73	3/5	$3,892	$3,371	66%	74%	+$703	-$26,409	38.8%	$-47,397 (vs do-nothing $-21,684)

Show 73 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 73.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$385	20d	31 Jul 2026	$4.55	5/5	$3,412	$2,887	65%	74%	+$774	-$40,605	59.7%	$-58,443 (vs do-nothing $-32,730)
$382	9d	20 Jul 2026	$2.60	4/5	$3,467	$2,943	65%	73%	+$611	-$34,464	50.7%	$-53,877 (vs do-nothing $-28,164)
$383	13d	24 Jul 2026	$3.55	5/5	$4,096	$3,570	64%	73%	+$769	-$42,105	61.9%	$-59,943 (vs do-nothing $-34,230)
$384	20d	31 Jul 2026	$4.90	5/5	$3,675	$3,149	64%	73%	+$778	-$40,930	60.2%	$-58,768 (vs do-nothing $-33,055)
$381	6d	17 Jul 2026	$2.53	3/5	$3,795	$3,274	63%	73%	+$806	-$26,169	38.5%	$-47,157 (vs do-nothing $-21,444)
$382	11d	22 Jul 2026	$3.25	4/5	$3,545	$3,022	63%	72%	+$569	-$34,204	50.3%	$-53,617 (vs do-nothing $-27,904)
$382	13d	24 Jul 2026	$3.95	4/5	$3,646	$3,123	62%	72%	+$647	-$33,924	49.9%	$-53,337 (vs do-nothing $-27,624)
$383	20d	31 Jul 2026	$5.30	5/5	$3,975	$3,449	62%	72%	+$801	-$41,230	60.6%	$-59,068 (vs do-nothing $-33,355)
$381	9d	20 Jul 2026	$2.97	4/5	$3,960	$3,437	61%	71%	+$620	-$34,716	51.1%	$-54,129 (vs do-nothing $-28,416)
$380	4d	15 Jul 2026	$2.13	3/5	$4,792	$4,271	61%	71%	+$772	-$26,589	39.1%	$-47,577 (vs do-nothing $-21,864)
$381	11d	22 Jul 2026	$3.60	4/5	$3,927	$3,404	60%	71%	+$534	-$34,464	50.7%	$-53,877 (vs do-nothing $-28,164)
$382	20d	31 Jul 2026	$5.70	4/5	$3,420	$2,897	59%	71%	+$644	-$33,224	48.9%	$-52,637 (vs do-nothing $-26,924)
$381	13d	24 Jul 2026	$4.35	4/5	$4,015	$3,492	59%	70%	+$649	-$34,164	50.2%	$-53,577 (vs do-nothing $-27,864)
$380	6d	17 Jul 2026	$2.94	3/5	$4,410	$3,889	59%	71%	+$817	-$26,346	38.7%	$-47,334 (vs do-nothing $-21,621)
$380	9d	20 Jul 2026	$3.30	4/5	$4,400	$3,877	58%	69%	+$519	-$34,984	51.4%	$-54,397 (vs do-nothing $-28,684)
$381	20d	31 Jul 2026	$6.15	4/5	$3,690	$3,167	57%	70%	+$662	-$33,444	49.2%	$-52,857 (vs do-nothing $-27,144)
$380	11d	22 Jul 2026	$4.10	3/5	$3,355	$2,833	57%	69%	+$467	-$25,998	38.2%	$-46,986 (vs do-nothing $-21,273)
$380	13d	24 Jul 2026	$4.80	3/5	$3,323	$2,802	56%	69%	+$500	-$25,788	37.9%	$-46,776 (vs do-nothing $-21,063)
$379	4d	15 Jul 2026	$2.52	2/5	$3,780	$3,261	56%	69%	+$453	-$17,848	26.2%	$-40,411 (vs do-nothing $-14,698)
$380	20d	31 Jul 2026	$6.45	4/5	$3,870	$3,347	55%	69%	+$575	-$33,724	49.6%	$-53,137 (vs do-nothing $-27,424)
$379	6d	17 Jul 2026	$3.35	2/5	$3,350	$2,831	55%	68%	+$501	-$17,682	26.0%	$-40,245 (vs do-nothing $-14,532)
$379	9d	20 Jul 2026	$3.85	3/5	$3,850	$3,329	54%	68%	+$490	-$26,373	38.8%	$-47,361 (vs do-nothing $-21,648)
$379	11d	22 Jul 2026	$4.50	3/5	$3,682	$3,161	54%	68%	+$421	-$26,178	38.5%	$-47,166 (vs do-nothing $-21,453)
$379	13d	24 Jul 2026	$5.25	3/5	$3,635	$3,113	54%	68%	+$491	-$25,953	38.2%	$-46,941 (vs do-nothing $-21,228)
$379	20d	31 Jul 2026	$7.10	4/5	$4,260	$3,737	53%	68%	+$682	-$33,864	49.8%	$-53,277 (vs do-nothing $-27,564)
$378	20d	31 Jul 2026	$7.55	3/5	$3,398	$2,876	51%	67%	+$491	-$25,563	37.6%	$-46,551 (vs do-nothing $-20,838)
$378	13d	24 Jul 2026	$5.75	3/5	$3,981	$3,460	51%	66%	+$493	-$26,103	38.4%	$-47,091 (vs do-nothing $-21,378)
$378	11d	22 Jul 2026	$5.00	3/5	$4,091	$3,570	51%	66%	+$427	-$26,328	38.7%	$-47,316 (vs do-nothing $-21,603)
$378	9d	20 Jul 2026	$4.30	3/5	$4,300	$3,779	51%	66%	+$447	-$26,538	39.0%	$-47,526 (vs do-nothing $-21,813)
$378	6d	17 Jul 2026	$3.85	2/5	$3,850	$3,331	51%	67%	+$498	-$17,782	26.1%	$-40,345 (vs do-nothing $-14,632)
$378	4d	15 Jul 2026	$3.00	2/5	$4,500	$3,981	51%	66%	+$434	-$17,952	26.4%	$-40,515 (vs do-nothing $-14,802)
$377	20d	31 Jul 2026	$8.05	3/5	$3,622	$3,101	49%	66%	+$480	-$25,713	37.8%	$-46,701 (vs do-nothing $-20,988)
$377	13d	24 Jul 2026	$6.25	3/5	$4,327	$3,806	48%	65%	+$473	-$26,253	38.6%	$-47,241 (vs do-nothing $-21,528)
$377	11d	22 Jul 2026	$5.55	3/5	$4,541	$4,020	48%	65%	+$443	-$26,463	38.9%	$-47,451 (vs do-nothing $-21,738)
$377	9d	20 Jul 2026	$4.85	3/5	$4,850	$4,329	48%	65%	+$461	-$26,673	39.2%	$-47,661 (vs do-nothing $-21,948)
$376	20d	31 Jul 2026	$8.70	3/5	$3,915	$3,394	47%	65%	+$526	-$25,818	38.0%	$-46,806 (vs do-nothing $-21,093)
$377	6d	17 Jul 2026	$4.35	2/5	$4,350	$3,831	47%	65%	+$446	-$17,882	26.3%	$-40,445 (vs do-nothing $-14,732)
$377	4d	15 Jul 2026	$3.50	2/5	$5,250	$4,731	46%	64%	+$355	-$18,052	26.5%	$-40,615 (vs do-nothing $-14,902)
$376	13d	24 Jul 2026	$6.85	3/5	$4,742	$4,221	46%	64%	+$500	-$26,373	38.8%	$-47,361 (vs do-nothing $-21,648)
$376	11d	22 Jul 2026	$6.10	2/5	$3,327	$2,808	45%	64%	+$286	-$17,732	26.1%	$-40,295 (vs do-nothing $-14,582)
$375	20d	31 Jul 2026	$9.25	3/5	$4,162	$3,641	45%	64%	+$516	-$25,953	38.2%	$-46,941 (vs do-nothing $-21,228)
$376	9d	20 Jul 2026	$5.40	2/5	$3,600	$3,081	44%	63%	+$289	-$17,872	26.3%	$-40,435 (vs do-nothing $-14,722)
$375	13d	24 Jul 2026	$7.45	2/5	$3,438	$2,920	43%	63%	+$337	-$17,662	26.0%	$-40,225 (vs do-nothing $-14,512)
$376	6d	17 Jul 2026	$4.90	2/5	$4,900	$4,381	43%	63%	+$397	-$17,972	26.4%	$-40,535 (vs do-nothing $-14,822)
$374	20d	31 Jul 2026	$9.85	3/5	$4,432	$3,911	43%	63%	+$516	-$26,073	38.3%	$-47,061 (vs do-nothing $-21,348)
$375	11d	22 Jul 2026	$6.65	2/5	$3,627	$3,108	42%	62%	+$257	-$17,822	26.2%	$-40,385 (vs do-nothing $-14,672)
$376	4d	15 Jul 2026	$4.05	2/5	$6,075	$5,556	41%	62%	+$264	-$18,142	26.7%	$-40,705 (vs do-nothing $-14,992)
$373	20d	31 Jul 2026	$10.50	3/5	$4,725	$4,204	41%	63%	+$529	-$26,178	38.5%	$-47,166 (vs do-nothing $-21,453)
$375	9d	20 Jul 2026	$6.00	2/5	$4,000	$3,481	41%	62%	+$276	-$17,952	26.4%	$-40,515 (vs do-nothing $-14,802)
$374	13d	24 Jul 2026	$8.05	2/5	$3,715	$3,197	41%	62%	+$326	-$17,742	26.1%	$-40,305 (vs do-nothing $-14,592)
$375	6d	17 Jul 2026	$5.55	2/5	$5,550	$5,031	39%	62%	+$403	-$18,042	26.5%	$-40,605 (vs do-nothing $-14,892)
$374	11d	22 Jul 2026	$7.35	2/5	$4,009	$3,490	39%	61%	+$291	-$17,882	26.3%	$-40,445 (vs do-nothing $-14,732)
$372	20d	31 Jul 2026	$11.10	2/5	$3,330	$2,811	39%	62%	+$339	-$17,532	25.8%	$-40,095 (vs do-nothing $-14,382)
$373	13d	24 Jul 2026	$8.60	2/5	$3,969	$3,450	38%	61%	+$278	-$17,832	26.2%	$-40,395 (vs do-nothing $-14,682)
$374	9d	20 Jul 2026	$6.65	2/5	$4,433	$3,914	38%	61%	+$270	-$18,022	26.5%	$-40,585 (vs do-nothing $-14,872)
$371	20d	31 Jul 2026	$11.75	2/5	$3,525	$3,006	37%	61%	+$333	-$17,602	25.9%	$-40,165 (vs do-nothing $-14,452)
$375	4d	15 Jul 2026	$4.75	1/5	$3,562	$3,046	37%	60%	+$159	-$9,101	13.4%	$-33,239 (vs do-nothing $-7,526)
$373	11d	22 Jul 2026	$7.95	2/5	$4,336	$3,818	37%	60%	+$252	-$17,962	26.4%	$-40,525 (vs do-nothing $-14,812)
$374	6d	17 Jul 2026	$6.20	2/5	$6,200	$5,681	36%	60%	+$369	-$18,112	26.6%	$-40,675 (vs do-nothing $-14,962)
$372	13d	24 Jul 2026	$9.35	2/5	$4,315	$3,797	36%	60%	+$309	-$17,882	26.3%	$-40,445 (vs do-nothing $-14,732)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-11 13:38