5 of 10 contracts (500 sh uncapped) | BE SS: $456.00 | CC-SS: $465.11 | IV: LOW | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $128,000 | (ND $136.00 + SW $120) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $12,750/mo | 45% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $537/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-61,085 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5x $390C 17 Jul 2026 | U10001299 | $1.35 | $676 | 2026-07-10 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 4d | 5 × $383 | 92% | $7,050 | $3,940 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 11d | 5 × $380 | 73% | $6,545 | $1,930 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $396 | 17 Jul | 4d | 6.5% | 99+% | 0% | $75 | $562 | -$6,488 | $34,482 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $396 6.5% OTM over spot $371.97 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.21 mid) = $75 credit for the 4d cycle → $562/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $396) 99+% Breach risk 0% POP (stays ≤ $396.20) 99+% EV / mo +$561 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 5.2 mo [3.4-7.2] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (5.4 mo) · 20% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 20% without) · ~0.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $-4,518 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,540 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $406 @ 80% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $10.23/sh now → $7.23 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.08/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $396 is $69 below CC-SS $465.11: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $396.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $396)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.41 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $465.11, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-61,085 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$65,574 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $396): -$34,482 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-29,994 (+$31,091 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-564 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-29,430, the opportunity cost of earning $562/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 5 × $386 | 17 Jul | 4d | 3.8% | 97% | 7% | $575 | $4,312 | -$2,738 | $38,982 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $386 3.8% OTM over spot $371.97 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $1.23 mid) = $575 credit for the 4d cycle → $4,312/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $386) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $387.24) 98% EV / mo +$4,172 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 5.3 mo [4.2-6.9] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (5.5 mo) · 18% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 16% without) · ~2.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,877 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,763 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $398 @ 83% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.44/sh now → $6.68 mid-life (likely $5.49–$10.33) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.53/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 177 simulated challenges: the $386 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $389 (overshoots $2.57). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $386 is $79 below CC-SS $465.11: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.29/sh (~25% of the $1.15 collected) or spot ≥ $387.24 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $386)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.41 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $465.11, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-61,085 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$65,574 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $386): -$38,982 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-34,494 (+$26,591 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-564 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-33,930, the opportunity cost of earning $4,312/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $383 | 17 Jul | 4d | 3.0% | 92% | 13% | $940 | $7,050 | — | $40,117 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $383 3.0% OTM over spot $371.97 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $2.01 mid) = $940 credit for the 4d cycle → $7,050/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $383) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $385.01) 95% EV / mo +$6,550 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 5.0 mo [3.4-7.4] median, 0.4 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (4.6 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 30% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 20% without) · ~6.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $10,606 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,317 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $396 @ 84% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.21/sh now → $6.51 mid-life (likely $5.75–$10.25) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.88/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.63/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 382 simulated challenges: the $383 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $385 (overshoots $2.34). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $383 is $82 below CC-SS $465.11: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.47/sh (~25% of the $1.88 collected) or spot ≥ $385.01 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $383)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.41 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $465.11, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-61,085 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$65,574 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $383): -$40,117 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-35,629 (+$25,456 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-564 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-35,065, the opportunity cost of earning $7,050/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $382 | 17 Jul | 4d | 2.7% | 90% | 20% | $1,080 | $8,100 | +$1,050 | $40,477 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $382 2.7% OTM over spot $371.97 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $2.33 mid) = $1,080 credit for the 4d cycle → $8,100/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $382) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $384.33) 94% EV / mo +$7,367 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 5.3 mo [3.7-7.2] median · 27% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 14% without) · ~8.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $14,709 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 16% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,150 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $396 @ 85% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.13/sh now → $6.46 mid-life (likely $6.13–$10.83) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.30/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 494 simulated challenges: the $382 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $384 (overshoots $2.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $382 is $83 below CC-SS $465.11: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.54/sh (~25% of the $2.16 collected) or spot ≥ $384.33 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $382)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.41 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $465.11, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-61,085 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$65,574 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $382): -$40,477 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-35,989 (+$25,096 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-564 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-35,425, the opportunity cost of earning $8,100/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $378 | 17 Jul | 4d | 1.6% | 77% | 45% | $1,925 | $14,438 | +$7,388 | $41,632 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $378 1.6% OTM over spot $371.97 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $4.10 mid) = $1,925 credit for the 4d cycle → $14,438/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $378) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $382.10) 89% EV / mo +$11,705 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 5.3 mo [3.4-7.1] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (5.2 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 37% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 17% without) · ~19.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $34,320 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 35% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,198 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $398 @ 90% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.83/sh now → $6.25 mid-life (likely $6.73–$11.34) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.40/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,061 simulated challenges: the $378 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $381 (overshoots $2.50). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $378 is $87 below CC-SS $465.11: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.96/sh (~25% of the $3.85 collected) or spot ≥ $382.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $378)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.41 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $465.11, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-61,085 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$65,574 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $378): -$41,632 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-37,144 (+$23,941 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-564 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-36,580, the opportunity cost of earning $14,438/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $402 | 24 Jul | 11d | 8.1% | 98% | 3% | $205 | $559 | -$5,986 | $31,352 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $402 8.1% OTM over spot $371.97 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.48 mid) = $205 credit for the 11d cycle → $559/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $402) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $402.48) 98% EV / mo +$523 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 5.2 mo [3.5-6.7] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (5.1 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 23% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 22% without) · ~0.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $-2,588 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 2% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,293 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $407 @ 77% POP 61% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $12.72/sh now → $9.00 mid-life (likely $6.09–$10.44) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.41/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$8.59/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 69 simulated challenges: the $402 strike is typically first touched on day 9 of 11, at $405 (overshoots $2.62). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $402 is $63 below CC-SS $465.11: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.41 collected) or spot ≥ $402.48 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $402)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.41 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $465.11, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-61,085 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$65,574 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $402): -$31,352 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,864 (+$34,221 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-564 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-26,300, the opportunity cost of earning $559/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $390 | 24 Jul | 11d | 4.8% | 91% | 18% | $820 | $2,236 | -$4,309 | $36,737 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $390 4.8% OTM over spot $371.97 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $1.77 mid) = $820 credit for the 11d cycle → $2,236/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $390) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $391.77) 93% EV / mo +$1,843 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.9 mo [3.8-7.3] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (4.8 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 24% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 18% without) · ~3.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,853 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,271 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $397 @ 79% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $11.57/sh now → $8.18 mid-life (likely $6.69–$11.20) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.64/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.54/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 445 simulated challenges: the $390 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 11, at $393 (overshoots $2.61). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $390 is $75 below CC-SS $465.11: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.41/sh (~25% of the $1.64 collected) or spot ≥ $391.77 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $390)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.41 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $465.11, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-61,085 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$65,574 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $390): -$36,737 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-32,249 (+$28,836 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-564 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-31,685, the opportunity cost of earning $2,236/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 5 × $384 | 24 Jul | 11d | 3.2% | 82% | 37% | $1,600 | $4,364 | -$2,182 | $38,957 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $384 3.2% OTM over spot $371.97 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $3.40 mid) = $1,600 credit for the 11d cycle → $4,364/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $384) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $387.40) 88% EV / mo +$3,172 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 5.4 mo [3.7-6.9] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (5.3 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 26% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 18% without) · ~6.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $15,001 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 30% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,293 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $394 @ 82% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $11.01/sh now → $7.79 mid-life (likely $7.54–$11.45) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.59/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 911 simulated challenges: the $384 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $387 (overshoots $2.53). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $384 is $81 below CC-SS $465.11: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.80/sh (~25% of the $3.20 collected) or spot ≥ $387.40 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $384)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.41 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $465.11, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-61,085 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$65,574 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $384): -$38,957 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-34,469 (+$26,616 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-564 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-33,905, the opportunity cost of earning $4,364/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $380 | 24 Jul | 11d | 2.2% | 73% | 45% | $2,400 | $6,545 | — | $40,157 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $380 2.2% OTM over spot $371.97 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $5.03 mid) = $2,400 credit for the 11d cycle → $6,545/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $380) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $385.02) 83% EV / mo +$4,268 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.8 mo [3.7-6.9] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (4.9 mo) · 32% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 20% without) · ~10.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $21,675 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 45% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,364 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $395 @ 88% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $10.64/sh now → $7.53 mid-life (likely $8.46–$11.94) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.73/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,349 simulated challenges: the $380 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $382 (overshoots $2.50). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $380 is $85 below CC-SS $465.11: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.20/sh (~25% of the $4.80 collected) or spot ≥ $385.02 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $380)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.41 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $465.11, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-61,085 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$65,574 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $380): -$40,157 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-35,669 (+$25,416 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-564 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-35,105, the opportunity cost of earning $6,545/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $372 | 24 Jul | 11d | 0.0% | 51% | 99+% | $4,675 | $12,750 | +$6,205 | $41,882 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $372 0.0% OTM over spot $371.97 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $9.62 mid) = $4,675 credit for the 11d cycle → $12,750/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $372) 51% Breach risk 49% POP (stays ≤ $381.62) 76% EV / mo +$6,291 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 5.1 mo [3.6-6.8] median, 0.6 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (4.5 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 35% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 18% without) · ~40.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $26,549 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 84% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$1,165 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $389 @ 90% POP 88% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.93/sh now → $7.02 mid-life (likely $9.95–$13.88) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $9.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$2.33/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,521 simulated challenges: the $372 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 11, at $375 (overshoots $3.11). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $372 is $93 below CC-SS $465.11: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.34/sh (~25% of the $9.35 collected) or spot ≥ $381.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $372)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.41 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $465.11, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-61,085 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$65,574 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $372): -$41,882 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-37,394 (+$23,691 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-564 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-36,830, the opportunity cost of earning $12,750/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (5 expiries scanned, 80 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.408 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$65,574 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-564
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $383 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.88 | 5/5 | $7,050 | $6,513 | 92% | 95% | +$6,550 | -$40,117 | 59.0% | $-35,629 (vs do-nothing $-35,065) |
| $382 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.16 | 4/5 | $6,480 | $5,946 | 90% | 94% | +$5,894 | -$32,382 | 47.6% | $-28,904 (vs do-nothing $-28,340) |
| $381 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.53 | 4/5 | $7,590 | $7,056 | 88% | 93% | +$6,749 | -$32,634 | 48.0% | $-29,156 (vs do-nothing $-28,592) |
| $380 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.94 | 3/5 | $6,615 | $6,084 | 85% | 92% | +$5,729 | -$24,652 | 36.3% | $-22,185 (vs do-nothing $-21,621) |
| $379 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.35 | 3/5 | $7,538 | $7,006 | 81% | 91% | +$6,320 | -$24,829 | 36.5% | $-22,362 (vs do-nothing $-21,798) |
| $380 | 7d | 20 Jul 2026 | $3.30 | 5/5 | $7,071 | $6,535 | 79% | 88% | +$5,393 | -$40,907 | 60.2% | $-36,419 (vs do-nothing $-35,855) |
| $378 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.85 | 3/5 | $8,662 | $8,131 | 77% | 89% | +$7,023 | -$24,979 | 36.7% | $-22,512 (vs do-nothing $-21,948) |
| $379 | 7d | 20 Jul 2026 | $3.85 | 4/5 | $6,600 | $6,066 | 76% | 87% | +$4,920 | -$32,906 | 48.4% | $-29,428 (vs do-nothing $-28,864) |
| $380 | 9d | 22 Jul 2026 | $4.10 | 5/5 | $6,833 | $6,296 | 75% | 85% | +$4,779 | -$40,507 | 59.6% | $-36,019 (vs do-nothing $-35,455) |
| $377 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.35 | 2/5 | $6,525 | $5,996 | 73% | 88% | +$5,083 | -$16,753 | 24.6% | $-15,296 (vs do-nothing $-14,732) |
| $378 | 7d | 20 Jul 2026 | $4.30 | 4/5 | $7,371 | $6,837 | 73% | 86% | +$5,291 | -$33,126 | 48.7% | $-29,648 (vs do-nothing $-29,084) |
| $380 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.80 | 5/5 | $6,545 | $6,009 | 73% | 83% | +$4,268 | -$40,157 | 59.1% | $-35,669 (vs do-nothing $-35,105) |
| $379 | 9d | 22 Jul 2026 | $4.50 | 5/5 | $7,500 | $6,963 | 73% | 84% | +$5,050 | -$40,807 | 60.0% | $-36,319 (vs do-nothing $-35,755) |
Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 67.
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $379 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.25 | 5/5 | $7,159 | $6,622 | 70% | 82% | +$4,516 | -$40,432 | 59.5% | $-35,944 (vs do-nothing $-35,380) |
| $378 | 9d | 22 Jul 2026 | $5.00 | 4/5 | $6,667 | $6,133 | 70% | 83% | +$4,346 | -$32,846 | 48.3% | $-29,368 (vs do-nothing $-28,804) |
| $377 | 7d | 20 Jul 2026 | $4.85 | 4/5 | $8,314 | $7,780 | 70% | 84% | +$5,764 | -$33,306 | 49.0% | $-29,828 (vs do-nothing $-29,264) |
| $376 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.90 | 2/5 | $7,350 | $6,821 | 69% | 87% | +$5,484 | -$16,843 | 24.8% | $-15,386 (vs do-nothing $-14,822) |
| $378 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.75 | 5/5 | $7,841 | $7,304 | 68% | 81% | +$4,790 | -$40,682 | 59.8% | $-36,194 (vs do-nothing $-35,630) |
| $377 | 9d | 22 Jul 2026 | $5.55 | 4/5 | $7,400 | $6,866 | 67% | 82% | +$4,670 | -$33,026 | 48.6% | $-29,548 (vs do-nothing $-28,984) |
| $376 | 7d | 20 Jul 2026 | $5.40 | 3/5 | $6,943 | $6,411 | 66% | 83% | +$4,623 | -$25,114 | 36.9% | $-22,647 (vs do-nothing $-22,083) |
| $377 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.25 | 4/5 | $6,818 | $6,284 | 65% | 80% | +$4,016 | -$32,746 | 48.2% | $-29,268 (vs do-nothing $-28,704) |
| $375 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.55 | 2/5 | $8,325 | $7,796 | 65% | 86% | +$5,956 | -$16,913 | 24.9% | $-15,456 (vs do-nothing $-14,892) |
| $376 | 9d | 22 Jul 2026 | $6.10 | 4/5 | $8,133 | $7,599 | 64% | 81% | +$4,944 | -$33,206 | 48.8% | $-29,728 (vs do-nothing $-29,164) |
| $376 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.85 | 4/5 | $7,473 | $6,939 | 62% | 79% | +$4,273 | -$32,906 | 48.4% | $-29,428 (vs do-nothing $-28,864) |
| $375 | 7d | 20 Jul 2026 | $6.00 | 3/5 | $7,714 | $7,183 | 62% | 82% | +$4,929 | -$25,234 | 37.1% | $-22,767 (vs do-nothing $-22,203) |
| $377 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.05 | 5/5 | $6,708 | $6,171 | 62% | 77% | +$3,417 | -$40,032 | 58.9% | $-35,544 (vs do-nothing $-34,980) |
| $375 | 9d | 22 Jul 2026 | $6.65 | 3/5 | $6,650 | $6,119 | 60% | 80% | +$3,875 | -$25,039 | 36.8% | $-22,572 (vs do-nothing $-22,008) |
| $374 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $6.20 | 2/5 | $9,300 | $8,771 | 60% | 84% | +$6,344 | -$16,983 | 25.0% | $-15,526 (vs do-nothing $-14,962) |
| $376 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.70 | 5/5 | $7,250 | $6,713 | 60% | 77% | +$3,628 | -$40,207 | 59.1% | $-35,719 (vs do-nothing $-35,155) |
| $375 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.45 | 4/5 | $8,127 | $7,593 | 59% | 78% | +$4,492 | -$33,066 | 48.6% | $-29,588 (vs do-nothing $-29,024) |
| $374 | 7d | 20 Jul 2026 | $6.65 | 3/5 | $8,550 | $8,019 | 58% | 81% | +$5,240 | -$25,339 | 37.3% | $-22,872 (vs do-nothing $-22,308) |
| $375 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.25 | 5/5 | $7,708 | $7,171 | 58% | 76% | +$3,733 | -$40,432 | 59.5% | $-35,944 (vs do-nothing $-35,380) |
| $374 | 9d | 22 Jul 2026 | $7.35 | 3/5 | $7,350 | $6,819 | 57% | 79% | +$4,152 | -$25,129 | 37.0% | $-22,662 (vs do-nothing $-22,098) |
| $374 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.05 | 3/5 | $6,586 | $6,055 | 57% | 77% | +$3,506 | -$24,919 | 36.6% | $-22,452 (vs do-nothing $-21,888) |
| $374 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.85 | 4/5 | $6,567 | $6,033 | 55% | 75% | +$3,086 | -$32,506 | 47.8% | $-29,028 (vs do-nothing $-28,464) |
| $373 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $6.70 | 2/5 | $10,050 | $9,521 | 55% | 83% | +$6,424 | -$17,083 | 25.1% | $-15,626 (vs do-nothing $-15,062) |
| $373 | 7d | 20 Jul 2026 | $7.30 | 3/5 | $9,386 | $8,854 | 55% | 80% | +$5,490 | -$25,444 | 37.4% | $-22,977 (vs do-nothing $-22,413) |
| $373 | 9d | 22 Jul 2026 | $7.95 | 3/5 | $7,950 | $7,419 | 54% | 78% | +$4,289 | -$25,249 | 37.1% | $-22,782 (vs do-nothing $-22,218) |
| $373 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.60 | 3/5 | $7,036 | $6,505 | 54% | 77% | +$3,573 | -$25,054 | 36.8% | $-22,587 (vs do-nothing $-22,023) |
| $373 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $10.50 | 4/5 | $7,000 | $6,466 | 53% | 75% | +$3,201 | -$32,646 | 48.0% | $-29,168 (vs do-nothing $-28,604) |
| $372 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.10 | 4/5 | $7,400 | $6,866 | 51% | 74% | +$3,265 | -$32,806 | 48.2% | $-29,328 (vs do-nothing $-28,764) |
| $372 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $9.35 | 3/5 | $7,650 | $7,119 | 51% | 76% | +$3,775 | -$25,129 | 37.0% | $-22,662 (vs do-nothing $-22,098) |
| $372 | 9d | 22 Jul 2026 | $7.55 | 3/5 | $7,550 | $7,019 | 51% | 77% | +$3,386 | -$25,669 | 37.7% | $-23,202 (vs do-nothing $-22,638) |
| $372 | 7d | 20 Jul 2026 | $7.85 | 2/5 | $6,729 | $6,200 | 51% | 79% | +$3,700 | -$17,053 | 25.1% | $-15,596 (vs do-nothing $-15,032) |
| $372 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $7.45 | 2/5 | $11,175 | $10,646 | 51% | 82% | +$6,796 | -$17,133 | 25.2% | $-15,676 (vs do-nothing $-15,112) |
| $371 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.75 | 4/5 | $7,833 | $7,299 | 49% | 73% | +$3,345 | -$32,946 | 48.4% | $-29,468 (vs do-nothing $-28,904) |
| $371 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $10.00 | 3/5 | $8,182 | $7,650 | 48% | 75% | +$3,867 | -$25,234 | 37.1% | $-22,767 (vs do-nothing $-22,203) |
| $371 | 9d | 22 Jul 2026 | $9.15 | 3/5 | $9,150 | $8,619 | 48% | 76% | +$4,443 | -$25,489 | 37.5% | $-23,022 (vs do-nothing $-22,458) |
| $371 | 7d | 20 Jul 2026 | $8.60 | 2/5 | $7,371 | $6,843 | 47% | 78% | +$3,872 | -$17,103 | 25.2% | $-15,646 (vs do-nothing $-15,082) |
| $370 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $12.40 | 4/5 | $8,267 | $7,733 | 47% | 73% | +$3,407 | -$33,086 | 48.7% | $-29,608 (vs do-nothing $-29,044) |
| $371 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $8.15 | 2/5 | $12,225 | $11,696 | 46% | 81% | +$7,012 | -$17,193 | 25.3% | $-15,736 (vs do-nothing $-15,172) |
| $370 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $10.70 | 3/5 | $8,755 | $8,223 | 45% | 74% | +$3,972 | -$25,324 | 37.2% | $-22,857 (vs do-nothing $-22,293) |
| $369 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $13.10 | 3/5 | $6,550 | $6,019 | 45% | 72% | +$2,614 | -$24,904 | 36.6% | $-22,437 (vs do-nothing $-21,873) |
| $370 | 9d | 22 Jul 2026 | $9.85 | 2/5 | $6,567 | $6,038 | 44% | 75% | +$3,041 | -$17,053 | 25.1% | $-15,596 (vs do-nothing $-15,032) |
| $370 | 7d | 20 Jul 2026 | $9.25 | 2/5 | $7,929 | $7,400 | 43% | 77% | +$3,920 | -$17,173 | 25.3% | $-15,716 (vs do-nothing $-15,152) |
| $368 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $13.70 | 3/5 | $6,850 | $6,319 | 43% | 71% | +$2,610 | -$25,024 | 36.8% | $-22,557 (vs do-nothing $-21,993) |
| $369 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $11.45 | 3/5 | $9,368 | $8,837 | 42% | 74% | +$4,091 | -$25,399 | 37.4% | $-22,932 (vs do-nothing $-22,368) |
| $370 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $8.90 | 1/5 | $6,675 | $6,149 | 42% | 80% | +$3,612 | -$8,621 | 12.7% | $-8,175 (vs do-nothing $-7,611) |
| $369 | 9d | 22 Jul 2026 | $10.65 | 2/5 | $7,100 | $6,571 | 41% | 74% | +$3,162 | -$17,093 | 25.1% | $-15,636 (vs do-nothing $-15,072) |
| $367 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $14.50 | 3/5 | $7,250 | $6,719 | 40% | 71% | +$2,694 | -$25,084 | 36.9% | $-22,617 (vs do-nothing $-22,053) |
| $368 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $12.20 | 2/5 | $6,655 | $6,126 | 40% | 73% | +$2,789 | -$16,983 | 25.0% | $-15,526 (vs do-nothing $-14,962) |
| $369 | 7d | 20 Jul 2026 | $10.25 | 2/5 | $8,786 | $8,257 | 40% | 76% | +$4,231 | -$17,173 | 25.3% | $-15,716 (vs do-nothing $-15,152) |
| $366 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $15.25 | 3/5 | $7,625 | $7,094 | 38% | 70% | +$2,741 | -$25,159 | 37.0% | $-22,692 (vs do-nothing $-22,128) |
| $368 | 9d | 22 Jul 2026 | $11.20 | 2/5 | $7,467 | $6,938 | 38% | 73% | +$3,091 | -$17,183 | 25.3% | $-15,726 (vs do-nothing $-15,162) |
| $369 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $9.65 | 1/5 | $7,238 | $6,712 | 37% | 79% | +$3,682 | -$8,646 | 12.7% | $-8,200 (vs do-nothing $-7,636) |
| $367 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $12.95 | 2/5 | $7,064 | $6,535 | 37% | 72% | +$2,835 | -$17,033 | 25.0% | $-15,576 (vs do-nothing $-15,012) |
| $365 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $15.90 | 3/5 | $7,950 | $7,419 | 36% | 70% | +$2,726 | -$25,264 | 37.2% | $-22,797 (vs do-nothing $-22,233) |
| $368 | 7d | 20 Jul 2026 | $11.10 | 2/5 | $9,514 | $8,986 | 36% | 76% | +$4,379 | -$17,203 | 25.3% | $-15,746 (vs do-nothing $-15,182) |
| $367 | 9d | 22 Jul 2026 | $12.20 | 2/5 | $8,133 | $7,605 | 35% | 73% | +$3,299 | -$17,183 | 25.3% | $-15,726 (vs do-nothing $-15,162) |
| $366 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $13.60 | 2/5 | $7,418 | $6,890 | 35% | 71% | +$2,809 | -$17,103 | 25.2% | $-15,646 (vs do-nothing $-15,082) |
| $368 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $10.45 | 1/5 | $7,838 | $7,312 | 33% | 78% | +$3,756 | -$8,666 | 12.7% | $-8,220 (vs do-nothing $-7,656) |
| $367 | 7d | 20 Jul 2026 | $11.60 | 2/5 | $9,943 | $9,414 | 33% | 74% | +$4,195 | -$17,303 | 25.4% | $-15,846 (vs do-nothing $-15,282) |
| $366 | 9d | 22 Jul 2026 | $12.95 | 2/5 | $8,633 | $8,105 | 33% | 72% | +$3,318 | -$17,233 | 25.3% | $-15,776 (vs do-nothing $-15,212) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.