FORTRESS FIGHT: GLD @ $373.81

BE SS: $456.00 | CC-SS: $468.88 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GLD @ $373.81 UNDERWATER $82.19 (18.0% below BE SS)

PARTIAL: 5 of 10 contracts already capped (5x $390C). FIGHTing the 5 uncapped; all figures (income, hedge, cap give-up) are for that slice.

5 of 10 contracts (500 sh uncapped) | BE SS: $456.00 | CC-SS: $468.88 | IV: LOW | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $320 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $173.979/sh)

SP: $450 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $43.857/sh)

HP: $330 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $4.500/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$128,000	(ND $136.00 + SW $120) x 500
Normal income ref	$8,845/mo	45% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$537/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-61,085	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$4,423/mo

HEDGE COVER
$537/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$8,845/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
7.7 mo to earn back $68,000

ML VELOCITY
14.5 mo to earn back $128,000

Deep drawdown (unpriceable at CC-SS): no listed call within 92% of CC-SS $468.88 in the fetched chain; the deepest available is $391C (14d, $2,026/mo, a BELOW-CC-SS strike, not a safe CC). Income at true CC-SS ≈ $0, so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$248

Hole (after banked)

$60,837

was $61,085 · 0% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$676

CC-SS ratchet

$509.55 → $468.88

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
5x $390C 17 Jul 2026	U10001299	$1.35	$676	2026-07-10

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYPULLBACK · %B 12 (live) · RSI 39 · MACD bearish, hist rising

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 40 · %B 36 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELS20W MA (bounce target) $419.79 (+12%) · daily UBB $396.42 · 1-wk expected move ±$11 (chain IV)

SETUPSpring loaded, not ignited: 🎯 or 💎 at short DTE, normal tripwires. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 5 contracts at $385 / 4d. This is the safest strike (survival 93%, breach 7%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($4,423/mo); it brings $5,325/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 5 × $381/4d for $9,487/mo, but breach risk rises to 18% (+11pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 5 × $396/4d (99+% survival, $562/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $41,230 (61% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $456, recoverable in 4.7 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 5 contracts realizes $-61,115 and cuts bleed by $537/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: THIS FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 (4d) · sell 5 × $385, 93% survival, $5,325/mo (E[net] $2,923/mo).
The two weekly tracks below are ranked by E[net]/mo = income − P(touch) × escape cost. Each has its own full ladder.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
THIS FRIDAY 🏆	17 Jul 2026 · 4d	5 × $385	93%	$5,325	$2,923
NEXT FRIDAY	24 Jul 2026 · 11d	5 × $383	76%	$4,841	$1,126

📅 THIS FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 4d · E[net] $2,923/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 5 × $385 (primary), 93% survival, breach 7%, $5,325/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $388 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 97% (breach 7% → 3%) for $2,400/mo less (45% income) buys safety you do not really need here.

GLD spot $373.81 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

5 × $396

17 Jul

5.9%

99+%

$75

$562

-$4,762

$36,365

Sell 5 × $396 5.9% OTM over spot $373.81 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.21 mid)

= $75 credit for the 4d cycle → $562/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $396)

99+%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $396.20)

99+%

EV / mo

+$558

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 6.8 mo [6.2-7.5] median · 5% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 5% without) · ~0.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $-4,235

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,902

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$406 @ 80% POP

71% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $8.42/sh now → $5.95 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.80/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$396	20 Jul 2026	5d left	+$1.01/sh	+$506 cycle +$581	75% surv 51%	-$50,519 NOT cap gain +$10,566
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$397	20 Jul 2026	5d left	+$0.25/sh	+$124 cycle +$199	76% surv 55%	-$50,365 NOT cap gain +$10,720
Max even-money escape in the band	~$406	31 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.34/sh	+$168 cycle +$243	80% surv 71%	-$46,271 NOT cap gain +$14,814
SS $456 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$562/mo
vs 50% target ($4,423/mo)	-87%
vs normal income ($8,845/mo)	6% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$26/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $396 is $73 below CC-SS $468.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$36,365
… as % of IC ($68,000)	53.5%
… as % of ML ($128,000)	28.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	4.1 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-61,112

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $396.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $396)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $396.42 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $392.04	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $392-396.20	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $396.20	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$396.00 (2.8σ)	$75	$-51,024	+$10,061	+$70
+2.5%	$405.90 (4.0σ)	$-4,875	$-51,519	+$9,566	-$4,880
+5%	$415.80 (5.2σ)	$-9,825	$-52,014	+$9,071	-$9,830
SS (= V-bounce)	$456.00 (10.2σ)	$-29,925	$-54,024	+$7,061	-$29,430

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $468.88, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-61,085

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$42,781

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $396): -$36,365

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-54,668 (+$6,417 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-25,238 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-29,430, the opportunity cost of earning $562/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $419.79 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,820, position total $-52,214 (+$8,871 vs today)

▸

33% normal

5 × $388

17 Jul

3.8%

97%

$390

$2,925

-$2,400

$40,050

Sell 5 × $388 3.8% OTM over spot $373.81 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.86 mid)

= $390 credit for the 4d cycle → $2,925/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $388)

97%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $388.86)

98%

EV / mo

+$2,795

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 6.8 mo [5.3-7.6] median, 0.6 mo faster than no FIGHT (7.4 mo) · 6% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 5% without) · ~2.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,490

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,401

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$400 @ 83% POP

75% survival

Buyback gross: $7.89/sh now → $5.58 mid-life (likely $4.11–$8.11) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.78/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.80/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 168 simulated challenges: the $388 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $390 (overshoots $2.30). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$388	20 Jul 2026	5d left	+$0.93/sh	+$463 cycle +$853 [+$293…+$955] · 82% credit	75% surv 51%	-$53,847 NOT cap gain +$7,238
Max even-money escape in the band	~$397	31 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.39/sh	+$196 cycle +$586 [-$284…+$885] · 65% credit	80% surv 70%	-$49,978 NOT cap gain +$11,107
SS $456 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$389	20 Jul 2026	5d left	+$0.15/sh	+$75 cycle +$465 [-$163…+$522] · 64% credit	76% surv 55%	-$53,699 NOT cap gain +$7,386
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$400	31 Jul 2026	16d left	-$0.74/sh	-$371 cycle +$19 [-$953…+$287] · 35% credit	83% surv 75%	-$49,195 NOT cap gain +$11,890
budget: banked $390 debit $371 (95% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$19 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $4,537/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,925/mo
vs 50% target ($4,423/mo)	-34%
vs normal income ($8,845/mo)	33% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,388/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $388 is $81 below CC-SS $468.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$40,050
… as % of IC ($68,000)	58.9%
… as % of ML ($128,000)	31.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	4.5 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-61,125

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.78 collected) or spot ≥ $388.86 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $388)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $396.42 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $384.12	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $384-388.86	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $388.86	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$388.00 (1.8σ)	$390	$-54,309	+$6,776	+$385
+2.5%	$397.70 (3.0σ)	$-4,460	$-54,794	+$6,291	-$4,465
+5%	$407.40 (4.2σ)	$-9,310	$-55,279	+$5,806	-$9,315
SS (= V-bounce)	$456.00 (10.2σ)	$-33,610	$-57,709	+$3,376	-$33,115

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $468.88, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-61,085

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$42,781

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $388): -$40,050

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-58,353 (+$2,732 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-25,238 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-33,115, the opportunity cost of earning $2,925/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $419.79 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$15,505, position total $-55,899 (+$5,186 vs today)

▸

🎯 50% normal

5 × $385

17 Jul

3.0%

93%

12%

$710

$5,325

—

$41,230

Sell 5 × $385 3.0% OTM over spot $373.81 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $1.48 mid)

= $710 credit for the 4d cycle → $5,325/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $385)

93%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $386.48)

95%

EV / mo

+$4,872

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 6.9 mo [5.1-7.8] median, 0.5 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (6.4 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 8% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 4% without) · ~6.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,880

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

12%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,012

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$398 @ 84% POP

77% survival

Buyback gross: $7.70/sh now → $5.44 mid-life (likely $4.96–$9.11) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.42/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.02/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 353 simulated challenges: the $385 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $388 (overshoots $2.52). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$385	20 Jul 2026	5d left	+$0.89/sh	+$447 cycle +$1,157 [+$47…+$799] · 78% credit	75% surv 51%	-$54,892 NOT cap gain +$6,193
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$392	31 Jul 2026	16d left	+$1.12/sh	+$561 cycle +$1,271 [-$244…+$973] · 67% credit	78% surv 66%	-$51,543 NOT cap gain +$9,542
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$386	20 Jul 2026	5d left	+$0.11/sh	+$57 cycle +$767 [-$419…+$346] · 45% credit	76% surv 55%	-$54,747 NOT cap gain +$6,338
Max even-money escape in the band	~$394	31 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.26/sh	+$131 cycle +$841 [-$753…+$513] · 42% credit	80% surv 70%	-$51,073 NOT cap gain +$10,012
SS $456 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$398	31 Jul 2026	16d left	-$1.22/sh	-$611 cycle +$99 [-$1,661…-$264] · 14% credit	84% surv 77%	-$50,015 NOT cap gain +$11,070
budget: banked $710 debit $611 (86% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$99 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,958/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$5,325/mo
vs 50% target ($4,423/mo)	+20%
vs normal income ($8,845/mo)	60% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$4,788/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $385 is $84 below CC-SS $468.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$41,230
… as % of IC ($68,000)	60.6%
… as % of ML ($128,000)	32.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)	4.7 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-61,115

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.35/sh (~25% of the $1.42 collected) or spot ≥ $386.48 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $385)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $396.42 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $381.15	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $381-386.48	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $386.48	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$385.00 (1.4σ)	$710	$-55,339	+$5,746	+$705
+2.5%	$394.62 (2.6σ)	$-4,102	$-55,821	+$5,264	-$4,107
+5%	$404.25 (3.8σ)	$-8,915	$-56,302	+$4,783	-$8,920
SS (= V-bounce)	$456.00 (10.2σ)	$-34,790	$-58,889	+$2,196	-$34,295

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $468.88, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-61,085

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$42,781

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $385): -$41,230

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-59,533 (+$1,552 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-25,238 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-34,295, the opportunity cost of earning $5,325/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $419.79 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$16,685, position total $-57,079 (+$4,006 vs today)

▸

🛡 safe yield

5 × $384

17 Jul

2.7%

91%

19%

$765

$5,738

+$413

$41,675

Sell 5 × $384 2.7% OTM over spot $373.81 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $1.70 mid)

= $765 credit for the 4d cycle → $5,738/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $384)

91%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $385.69)

94%

EV / mo

+$5,074

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 6.8 mo [5.9-8.1] median, 0.6 mo faster than no FIGHT (7.4 mo) · 12% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 5% without) · ~8.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $13,703

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

15%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,934

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$397 @ 84% POP

78% survival

Buyback gross: $7.63/sh now → $5.40 mid-life (likely $4.85–$9.15) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.53/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.87/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 436 simulated challenges: the $384 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $386 (overshoots $2.47). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$384	20 Jul 2026	5d left	+$0.88/sh	+$442 cycle +$1,207 [-$2…+$799] · 75% credit	75% surv 50%	-$55,293 NOT cap gain +$5,792
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$391	31 Jul 2026	16d left	+$1.08/sh	+$539 cycle +$1,304 [-$278…+$987] · 66% credit	78% surv 67%	-$51,960 NOT cap gain +$9,125
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$385	20 Jul 2026	5d left	+$0.10/sh	+$52 cycle +$817 [-$436…+$352] · 45% credit	76% surv 55%	-$55,147 NOT cap gain +$5,938
Max even-money escape in the band	~$393	31 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.22/sh	+$109 cycle +$874 [-$766…+$517] · 43% credit	80% surv 70%	-$51,490 NOT cap gain +$9,595
SS $456 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$397	31 Jul 2026	16d left	-$1.26/sh	-$629 cycle +$136 [-$1,674…-$267] · 12% credit	84% surv 78%	-$50,428 NOT cap gain +$10,657
budget: banked $765 debit $629 (82% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$136 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,882/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$5,738/mo
vs 50% target ($4,423/mo)	+30%
vs normal income ($8,845/mo)	65% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$5,201/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $384 is $85 below CC-SS $468.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$41,675
… as % of IC ($68,000)	61.3%
… as % of ML ($128,000)	32.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	4.7 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-61,168

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.38/sh (~25% of the $1.53 collected) or spot ≥ $385.69 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $384)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $396.42 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $380.16	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $380-385.69	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $385.69	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$384.00 (1.3σ)	$765	$-55,734	+$5,351	+$760
+2.5%	$393.60 (2.5σ)	$-4,035	$-56,214	+$4,871	-$4,040
+5%	$403.20 (3.7σ)	$-8,835	$-56,694	+$4,391	-$8,840
SS (= V-bounce)	$456.00 (10.2σ)	$-35,235	$-59,334	+$1,751	-$34,740

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $468.88, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-61,085

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$42,781

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $384): -$41,675

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-59,978 (+$1,107 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-25,238 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-34,740, the opportunity cost of earning $5,738/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $419.79 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$17,130, position total $-57,524 (+$3,561 vs today)

▸

100% normal

5 × $381

17 Jul

1.9%

82%

36%

$1,265

$9,487

+$4,162

$42,675

Sell 5 × $381 1.9% OTM over spot $373.81 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $2.71 mid)

= $1,265 credit for the 4d cycle → $9,487/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $381)

82%

Breach risk

18%

POP (stays ≤ $383.71)

89%

EV / mo

+$7,630

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 7.0 mo [5.4-8.2] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (6.9 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 20% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 4% without) · ~16.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $28,632

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

27%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,367

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$398 @ 88% POP

84% survival

Buyback gross: $7.44/sh now → $5.26 mid-life (likely $5.37–$8.99) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.53/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.73/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 805 simulated challenges: the $381 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $383 (overshoots $2.33). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$386	31 Jul 2026	16d left	+$1.87/sh	+$936 cycle +$2,201 [+$74…+$1,141] · 77% credit	76% surv 62%	-$53,313 NOT cap gain +$7,772
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$381	20 Jul 2026	5d left	+$0.85/sh	+$426 cycle +$1,691 [-$25…+$660] · 74% credit	75% surv 50%	-$56,158 NOT cap gain +$4,927
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$382	20 Jul 2026	5d left	+$0.07/sh	+$34 cycle +$1,299 [-$488…+$204] · 35% credit	76% surv 56%	-$56,015 NOT cap gain +$5,070
Max even-money escape in the band	~$390	31 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.09/sh	+$46 cycle +$1,311 [-$910…+$190] · 31% credit	80% surv 71%	-$52,403 NOT cap gain +$8,682
SS $456 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$398	31 Jul 2026	16d left	-$2.43/sh	-$1,215 cycle +$50 [-$2,475…-$1,212]	88% surv 84%	-$50,064 NOT cap gain +$11,021
budget: banked $1,265 debit $1,215 (96% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$50 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,657/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$9,487/mo
vs 50% target ($4,423/mo)	+115%
vs normal income ($8,845/mo)	107% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$8,951/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $381 is $88 below CC-SS $468.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$42,675
… as % of IC ($68,000)	62.8%
… as % of ML ($128,000)	33.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	4.8 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-61,175

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.63/sh (~25% of the $2.53 collected) or spot ≥ $383.71 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $381)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $396.42 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $377.19	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $377-383.71	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $383.71	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$381.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,265	$-56,584	+$4,501	+$1,260
+2.5%	$390.52 (2.1σ)	$-3,497	$-57,061	+$4,024	-$3,502
+5%	$400.05 (3.3σ)	$-8,260	$-57,537	+$3,548	-$8,265
SS (= V-bounce)	$456.00 (10.2σ)	$-36,235	$-60,334	+$751	-$35,740

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $468.88, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-61,085

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$42,781

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $381): -$42,675

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-60,978 (+$107 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-25,238 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-35,740, the opportunity cost of earning $9,487/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $419.79 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$18,130, position total $-58,524 (+$2,561 vs today)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on GLD are the tiebreakers.

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 24 Jul 2026 · 11d · E[net] $1,126/mo

🎯 Engine pick: sell 5 × $383 (primary), 76% survival, breach 24%, $4,841/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $387 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 84% (breach 24% → 16%) for $1,691/mo less (35% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $387 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect GLD to stay flat-to-down near term.

GLD spot $373.81 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

5 × $402

24 Jul

11d

7.5%

98%

$205

$559

-$4,282

$33,235

Sell 5 × $402 7.5% OTM over spot $373.81 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.48 mid)

= $205 credit for the 11d cycle → $559/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $402)

98%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $402.48)

98%

EV / mo

+$500

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 6.7 mo [5.5-7.8] median, 0.9 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (5.8 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 8% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 7% without) · ~0.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $-1,772

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$3,682

Free roll-up

+$0/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$406 @ 75% POP

60% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $10.99/sh now → $7.77 mid-life (likely $6.19–$10.11) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.41/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.36/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 87 simulated challenges: the $402 strike is typically first touched on day 9 of 11, at $405 (overshoots $3.13). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$402	27 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.52/sh	+$262 cycle +$467 [+$261…+$853] · 93% credit	72% surv 51%	-$47,932 NOT cap gain +$13,153
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$402	27 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.41/sh	+$205 cycle +$410 [+$192…+$777] · 91% credit	72% surv 51%	-$47,904 NOT cap gain +$13,181
Max even-money escape in the band	~$406	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.29/sh	+$145 cycle +$350 [-$57…+$787] · 74% credit	75% surv 60%	-$46,164 NOT cap gain +$14,921
SS $456 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$559/mo
vs 50% target ($4,423/mo)	-87%
vs normal income ($8,845/mo)	6% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$22/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $402 is $67 below CC-SS $468.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$33,235
… as % of IC ($68,000)	48.9%
… as % of ML ($128,000)	26.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	3.8 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-61,120

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.41 collected) or spot ≥ $402.48 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $402)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $396.42 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $397.98	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $398-402.48	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $402.48	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$402.00 (2.1σ)	$205	$-48,194	+$12,891	+$200
+2.5%	$412.05 (2.9σ)	$-4,820	$-48,697	+$12,388	-$4,825
+5%	$422.10 (3.6σ)	$-9,845	$-49,199	+$11,886	-$9,850
SS (= V-bounce)	$456.00 (6.2σ)	$-26,795	$-50,894	+$10,191	-$26,300

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $468.88, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-61,085

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$42,781

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $402): -$33,235

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-51,538 (+$9,547 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-25,238 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-26,300, the opportunity cost of earning $559/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $419.79 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,690, position total $-49,084 (+$12,001 vs today)

▸

🛡 safe yield

5 × $391

24 Jul

11d

4.6%

90%

20%

$725

$1,977

-$2,864

$38,215

Sell 5 × $391 4.6% OTM over spot $373.81 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $1.58 mid)

= $725 credit for the 11d cycle → $1,977/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $391)

90%

Breach risk

10%

POP (stays ≤ $392.58)

92%

EV / mo

+$1,503

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 6.8 mo [5.4-8.2] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (7.0 mo) · 8% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 6% without) · ~3.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,378

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

17%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,835

Free roll-up

+$0/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$398 @ 79% POP

68% survival

Buyback gross: $10.07/sh now → $7.12 mid-life (likely $5.96–$9.42) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.67/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 520 simulated challenges: the $391 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 11, at $393 (overshoots $2.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$391	27 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.46/sh	+$232 cycle +$957 [+$78…+$653] · 84% credit	72% surv 51%	-$52,393 NOT cap gain +$8,692
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$391	27 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.35/sh	+$174 cycle +$899 [+$17…+$576] · 77% credit	72% surv 51%	-$52,365 NOT cap gain +$8,720
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$394	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.57/sh	+$283 cycle +$1,008 [+$6…+$701] · 75% credit	74% surv 58%	-$50,906 NOT cap gain +$10,179
Max even-money escape in the band	~$395	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.07/sh	+$34 cycle +$759 [-$262…+$440] · 55% credit	75% surv 61%	-$50,705 NOT cap gain +$10,380
SS $456 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$398	31 Jul 2026	12d left	-$1.28/sh	-$642 cycle +$83 [-$974…-$268] · 15% credit	79% surv 68%	-$50,031 NOT cap gain +$11,054
budget: banked $725 debit $642 (88% used ≈ 1.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$83 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $7,297/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$1,977/mo
vs 50% target ($4,423/mo)	-55%
vs normal income ($8,845/mo)	22% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,440/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $391 is $78 below CC-SS $468.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$38,215
… as % of IC ($68,000)	56.2%
… as % of ML ($128,000)	29.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	4.3 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-61,152

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.36/sh (~25% of the $1.45 collected) or spot ≥ $392.58 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $391)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $396.42 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $387.09	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $387-392.58	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $392.58	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$391.00 (1.3σ)	$725	$-52,624	+$8,461	+$720
+2.5%	$400.77 (2.0σ)	$-4,162	$-53,113	+$7,972	-$4,167
+5%	$410.55 (2.8σ)	$-9,050	$-53,602	+$7,483	-$9,055
SS (= V-bounce)	$456.00 (6.2σ)	$-31,775	$-55,874	+$5,211	-$31,280

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $468.88, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-61,085

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$42,781

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $391): -$38,215

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-56,518 (+$4,567 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-25,238 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-31,280, the opportunity cost of earning $1,977/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $419.79 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$13,670, position total $-54,064 (+$7,021 vs today)

▸

33% normal ← lean

5 × $387

24 Jul

11d

3.5%

84%

32%

$1,155

$3,150

-$1,691

$39,785

Sell 5 × $387 3.5% OTM over spot $373.81 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $2.46 mid)

= $1,155 credit for the 11d cycle → $3,150/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $387)

84%

Breach risk

16%

POP (stays ≤ $389.46)

88%

EV / mo

+$2,171

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 7.2 mo [5.6-7.6] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (7.1 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 9% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 5% without) · ~6.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $13,091

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

27%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,290

Free roll-up

+$0/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$396 @ 81% POP

73% survival

Buyback gross: $9.74/sh now → $6.89 mid-life (likely $6.25–$9.95) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.31/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.58/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 821 simulated challenges: the $387 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 11, at $389 (overshoots $2.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$387	27 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.44/sh	+$221 cycle +$1,376 [-$15…+$512] · 73% credit	72% surv 51%	-$53,774 NOT cap gain +$7,311
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$387	27 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.33/sh	+$163 cycle +$1,318 [-$80…+$449] · 64% credit	72% surv 51%	-$53,746 NOT cap gain +$7,339
Max even-money escape in the band	~$390	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.49/sh	+$244 cycle +$1,399 [-$154…+$566] · 60% credit	74% surv 58%	-$52,315 NOT cap gain +$8,770
SS $456 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$396	31 Jul 2026	12d left	-$2.20/sh	-$1,102 cycle +$53 [-$1,644…-$892] · 3% credit	81% surv 73%	-$50,961 NOT cap gain +$10,124
budget: banked $1,155 debit $1,102 (95% used ≈ 1.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$53 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $5,857/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$3,150/mo
vs 50% target ($4,423/mo)	-29%
vs normal income ($8,845/mo)	36% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,613/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $387 is $82 below CC-SS $468.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$39,785
… as % of IC ($68,000)	58.5%
… as % of ML ($128,000)	31.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	4.5 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-61,162

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.58/sh (~25% of the $2.31 collected) or spot ≥ $389.46 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $387)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $396.42 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $383.13	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $383-389.46	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $389.46	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$387.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,155	$-53,994	+$7,091	+$1,150
+2.5%	$396.67 (1.7σ)	$-3,682	$-54,478	+$6,607	-$3,687
+5%	$406.35 (2.4σ)	$-8,520	$-54,962	+$6,123	-$8,525
SS (= V-bounce)	$456.00 (6.2σ)	$-33,345	$-57,444	+$3,641	-$32,850

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $468.88, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-61,085

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$42,781

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $387): -$39,785

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-58,088 (+$2,997 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-25,238 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-32,850, the opportunity cost of earning $3,150/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $419.79 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$15,240, position total $-55,634 (+$5,451 vs today)

▸

🎯 50% normal

5 × $383

24 Jul

11d

2.5%

76%

41%

$1,775

$4,841

—

$41,165

Sell 5 × $383 2.5% OTM over spot $373.81 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $3.75 mid)

= $1,775 credit for the 11d cycle → $4,841/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $383)

76%

Breach risk

24%

POP (stays ≤ $386.75)

83%

EV / mo

+$2,941

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 6.5 mo [5.5-7.6] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (6.3 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 10% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 5% without) · ~10.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $17,446

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

41%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,556

Free roll-up

+$0/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$395 @ 85% POP

79% survival

Buyback gross: $9.42/sh now → $6.66 mid-life (likely $7.18–$10.35) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.11/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,227 simulated challenges: the $383 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $386 (overshoots $2.51). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$385	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$1.05/sh	+$525 cycle +$2,300 [+$85…+$586] · 83% credit	74% surv 56%	-$53,664 NOT cap gain +$7,421
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$383	27 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.42/sh	+$210 cycle +$1,985 [-$101…+$314] · 57% credit	72% surv 51%	-$54,964 NOT cap gain +$6,121
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$383	27 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.30/sh	+$152 cycle +$1,927 [-$166…+$241] · 47% credit	72% surv 51%	-$54,937 NOT cap gain +$6,148
Max even-money escape in the band	~$386	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.41/sh	+$207 cycle +$1,982 [-$278…+$239] · 42% credit	74% surv 59%	-$53,532 NOT cap gain +$7,553
SS $456 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$395	31 Jul 2026	12d left	-$3.32/sh	-$1,659 cycle +$116 [-$2,470…-$1,801]	85% surv 79%	-$51,348 NOT cap gain +$9,737
budget: banked $1,775 debit $1,659 (93% used ≈ 1.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$116 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $4,180/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$4,841/mo
vs 50% target ($4,423/mo)	+9%
vs normal income ($8,845/mo)	55% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$4,304/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $383 is $86 below CC-SS $468.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$41,165
… as % of IC ($68,000)	60.5%
… as % of ML ($128,000)	32.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)	4.7 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-61,185

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.89/sh (~25% of the $3.55 collected) or spot ≥ $386.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $383)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $396.42 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $379.17	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $379-386.75	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $386.75	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$383.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,775	$-55,174	+$5,911	+$1,770
+2.5%	$392.57 (1.4σ)	$-3,012	$-55,653	+$5,432	-$3,017
+5%	$402.15 (2.1σ)	$-7,800	$-56,132	+$4,953	-$7,805
SS (= V-bounce)	$456.00 (6.2σ)	$-34,725	$-58,824	+$2,261	-$34,230

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $468.88, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-61,085

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$42,781

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $383): -$41,165

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-59,468 (+$1,617 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-25,238 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-34,230, the opportunity cost of earning $4,841/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $419.79 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$16,620, position total $-57,014 (+$4,071 vs today)

▸

100% normal

5 × $376

24 Jul

11d

0.6%

57%

87%

$3,425

$9,341

+$4,500

$43,015

Sell 5 × $376 0.6% OTM over spot $373.81 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $7.07 mid)

= $3,425 credit for the 11d cycle → $9,341/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $376)

57%

Breach risk

43%

POP (stays ≤ $383.07)

75%

EV / mo

+$4,333

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 6.0 mo [5.1-7.2] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (6.2 mo) · 16% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 7% without) · ~28.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $23,541

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

73%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

+$290

Free roll-up

+$0/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$393 @ 91% POP

89% survival

Buyback gross: $8.87/sh now → $6.27 mid-life (likely $8.51–$11.20) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $6.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.58/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 2,193 simulated challenges: the $376 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 11, at $379 (overshoots $2.62). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$377	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$1.47/sh	+$735 cycle +$4,160 [+$163…+$426] · 88% credit	73% surv 54%	-$55,404 NOT cap gain +$5,681
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$376	27 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.38/sh	+$192 cycle +$3,617 [-$240…-$34] · 22% credit	72% surv 51%	-$56,483 NOT cap gain +$4,602
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$376	27 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.27/sh	+$133 cycle +$3,558 [-$305…-$99] · 17% credit	72% surv 51%	-$56,456 NOT cap gain +$4,629
Max even-money escape in the band	~$379	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.28/sh	+$142 cycle +$3,567 [-$523…-$201] · 13% credit	75% surv 59%	-$55,097 NOT cap gain +$5,988
SS $456 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$393	31 Jul 2026	12d left	-$4.58/sh	-$2,291 cycle +$1,134 [-$3,686…-$2,927]	91% surv 89%	-$51,230 NOT cap gain +$9,855
budget: banked $3,425 debit $2,291 (67% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,134 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,110/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$9,341/mo
vs 50% target ($4,423/mo)	+111%
vs normal income ($8,845/mo)	106% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$8,804/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $376 is $93 below CC-SS $468.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$43,015
… as % of IC ($68,000)	63.3%
… as % of ML ($128,000)	33.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	4.9 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-61,198

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.71/sh (~25% of the $6.85 collected) or spot ≥ $383.07 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $376)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $396.42 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $372.24	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $372-383.07	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $383.07	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$376.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$3,425	$-56,674	+$4,411	+$3,420
+2.5%	$385.40 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-1,275	$-57,144	+$3,941	-$1,280
+5%	$394.80 (1.6σ)	$-5,975	$-57,614	+$3,471	-$5,980
SS (= V-bounce)	$456.00 (6.2σ)	$-36,575	$-60,674	+$411	-$36,080

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $468.88, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-61,085

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$42,781

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $376): -$43,015

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-61,318 ($-233 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-25,238 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-36,080, the opportunity cost of earning $9,341/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $419.79 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$18,470, position total $-58,864 (+$2,221 vs today)

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (102 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (6 expiries scanned, 102 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$42,781 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-25,238

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$385	4d	17 Jul 2026	$1.42	5/5	$5,325	$4,788	93%	95%	+$4,872	-$41,230	60.6%	$-59,533 (vs do-nothing $-34,295)
$384	4d	17 Jul 2026	$1.53	4/5	$4,590	$4,056	91%	94%	+$4,059	-$33,340	49.0%	$-53,030 (vs do-nothing $-27,792)
$383	4d	17 Jul 2026	$1.88	4/5	$5,640	$5,106	88%	92%	+$4,877	-$33,600	49.4%	$-53,290 (vs do-nothing $-28,052)
$382	4d	17 Jul 2026	$2.16	3/5	$4,860	$4,329	85%	91%	+$4,053	-$25,416	37.4%	$-46,493 (vs do-nothing $-21,255)
$383	7d	20 Jul 2026	$2.28	5/5	$4,886	$4,349	83%	88%	+$3,613	-$41,800	61.5%	$-60,103 (vs do-nothing $-34,865)
$381	4d	17 Jul 2026	$2.53	3/5	$5,692	$5,161	82%	89%	+$4,578	-$25,605	37.7%	$-46,682 (vs do-nothing $-21,444)
$382	7d	20 Jul 2026	$2.60	4/5	$4,457	$3,923	80%	87%	+$3,172	-$33,712	49.6%	$-53,402 (vs do-nothing $-28,164)
$383	9d	22 Jul 2026	$2.87	5/5	$4,783	$4,246	79%	85%	+$3,125	-$41,505	61.0%	$-59,808 (vs do-nothing $-34,570)
$380	4d	17 Jul 2026	$2.94	3/5	$6,615	$6,084	78%	88%	+$5,107	-$25,782	37.9%	$-46,859 (vs do-nothing $-21,621)
$381	7d	20 Jul 2026	$2.97	4/5	$5,091	$4,557	77%	85%	+$3,485	-$33,964	49.9%	$-53,654 (vs do-nothing $-28,416)
$382	9d	22 Jul 2026	$3.25	5/5	$5,417	$4,880	76%	84%	+$3,427	-$41,815	61.5%	$-60,118 (vs do-nothing $-34,880)
$383	11d	24 Jul 2026	$3.55	5/5	$4,841	$4,304	76%	83%	+$2,941	-$41,165	60.5%	$-59,468 (vs do-nothing $-34,230)
$379	4d	17 Jul 2026	$3.35	2/5	$5,025	$4,496	74%	86%	+$3,690	-$17,306	25.4%	$-39,770 (vs do-nothing $-14,532)

Show 89 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 89.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$380	7d	20 Jul 2026	$3.30	4/5	$5,657	$5,123	74%	84%	+$3,668	-$34,232	50.3%	$-53,922 (vs do-nothing $-28,684)
$382	11d	24 Jul 2026	$3.95	5/5	$5,386	$4,850	73%	82%	+$3,171	-$41,465	61.0%	$-59,768 (vs do-nothing $-34,530)
$381	9d	22 Jul 2026	$3.60	4/5	$4,800	$4,266	73%	83%	+$2,903	-$33,712	49.6%	$-53,402 (vs do-nothing $-28,164)
$382	14d	27 Jul 2026	$4.40	5/5	$4,713	$4,176	71%	80%	+$2,500	-$41,240	60.6%	$-59,544 (vs do-nothing $-34,306)
$381	11d	24 Jul 2026	$4.35	4/5	$4,745	$4,211	71%	81%	+$2,689	-$33,412	49.1%	$-53,102 (vs do-nothing $-27,864)
$379	7d	20 Jul 2026	$3.85	3/5	$4,950	$4,419	70%	82%	+$3,120	-$25,809	38.0%	$-46,886 (vs do-nothing $-21,648)
$378	4d	17 Jul 2026	$3.85	2/5	$5,775	$5,246	70%	85%	+$4,038	-$17,406	25.6%	$-39,870 (vs do-nothing $-14,632)
$380	9d	22 Jul 2026	$4.10	4/5	$5,467	$4,933	70%	81%	+$3,136	-$33,912	49.9%	$-53,602 (vs do-nothing $-28,364)
$382	18d	31 Jul 2026	$5.70	5/5	$4,750	$4,213	69%	80%	+$2,547	-$40,590	59.7%	$-58,893 (vs do-nothing $-33,655)
$381	14d	27 Jul 2026	$4.78	5/5	$5,120	$4,583	69%	79%	+$2,617	-$41,550	61.1%	$-59,854 (vs do-nothing $-34,616)
$380	11d	24 Jul 2026	$4.80	4/5	$5,236	$4,702	68%	80%	+$2,862	-$33,632	49.5%	$-53,322 (vs do-nothing $-28,084)
$379	9d	22 Jul 2026	$4.50	3/5	$4,500	$3,969	67%	80%	+$2,517	-$25,614	37.7%	$-46,691 (vs do-nothing $-21,453)
$381	18d	31 Jul 2026	$6.15	5/5	$5,125	$4,588	67%	79%	+$2,677	-$40,865	60.1%	$-59,168 (vs do-nothing $-33,930)
$378	7d	20 Jul 2026	$4.30	3/5	$5,529	$4,997	67%	81%	+$3,306	-$25,974	38.2%	$-47,051 (vs do-nothing $-21,813)
$380	14d	27 Jul 2026	$5.20	4/5	$4,454	$3,920	67%	78%	+$2,198	-$33,473	49.2%	$-53,164 (vs do-nothing $-27,925)
$377	4d	17 Jul 2026	$4.35	2/5	$6,525	$5,996	65%	83%	+$4,305	-$17,506	25.7%	$-39,970 (vs do-nothing $-14,732)
$379	11d	24 Jul 2026	$5.25	4/5	$5,727	$5,193	65%	79%	+$3,000	-$33,852	49.8%	$-53,542 (vs do-nothing $-28,304)
$380	18d	31 Jul 2026	$6.45	5/5	$5,375	$4,838	64%	77%	+$2,444	-$41,215	60.6%	$-59,518 (vs do-nothing $-34,280)
$378	9d	22 Jul 2026	$5.00	3/5	$5,000	$4,469	64%	79%	+$2,683	-$25,764	37.9%	$-46,841 (vs do-nothing $-21,603)
$379	14d	27 Jul 2026	$5.66	4/5	$4,853	$4,319	64%	77%	+$2,320	-$33,687	49.5%	$-53,378 (vs do-nothing $-28,139)
$377	7d	20 Jul 2026	$4.85	3/5	$6,236	$5,704	63%	80%	+$3,564	-$26,109	38.4%	$-47,186 (vs do-nothing $-21,948)
$378	11d	24 Jul 2026	$5.75	3/5	$4,705	$4,173	63%	77%	+$2,368	-$25,539	37.6%	$-46,616 (vs do-nothing $-21,378)
$379	18d	31 Jul 2026	$7.10	4/5	$4,733	$4,199	62%	76%	+$2,145	-$33,112	48.7%	$-52,802 (vs do-nothing $-27,564)
$378	14d	27 Jul 2026	$6.13	4/5	$5,252	$4,718	62%	76%	+$2,418	-$33,901	49.9%	$-53,591 (vs do-nothing $-28,353)
$377	9d	22 Jul 2026	$5.55	3/5	$5,550	$5,019	61%	78%	+$2,860	-$25,899	38.1%	$-46,976 (vs do-nothing $-21,738)
$376	4d	17 Jul 2026	$4.90	2/5	$7,350	$6,821	61%	81%	+$4,563	-$17,596	25.9%	$-40,060 (vs do-nothing $-14,822)
$378	18d	31 Jul 2026	$7.55	4/5	$5,033	$4,499	60%	75%	+$2,184	-$33,332	49.0%	$-53,022 (vs do-nothing $-27,784)
$377	11d	24 Jul 2026	$6.25	3/5	$5,114	$4,582	60%	77%	+$2,457	-$25,689	37.8%	$-46,766 (vs do-nothing $-21,528)
$377	14d	27 Jul 2026	$6.60	4/5	$5,659	$5,125	59%	75%	+$2,499	-$34,111	50.2%	$-53,801 (vs do-nothing $-28,563)
$376	7d	20 Jul 2026	$5.40	2/5	$4,629	$4,100	59%	78%	+$2,507	-$17,496	25.7%	$-39,960 (vs do-nothing $-14,722)
$377	18d	31 Jul 2026	$8.05	4/5	$5,367	$4,833	58%	74%	+$2,240	-$33,532	49.3%	$-53,222 (vs do-nothing $-27,984)
$376	9d	22 Jul 2026	$6.10	3/5	$6,100	$5,569	58%	76%	+$2,997	-$26,034	38.3%	$-47,111 (vs do-nothing $-21,873)
$376	11d	24 Jul 2026	$6.85	3/5	$5,605	$5,073	57%	75%	+$2,600	-$25,809	38.0%	$-46,886 (vs do-nothing $-21,648)
$376	14d	27 Jul 2026	$7.15	3/5	$4,599	$4,067	57%	74%	+$1,965	-$25,718	37.8%	$-46,795 (vs do-nothing $-21,557)
$375	4d	17 Jul 2026	$5.55	2/5	$8,325	$7,796	56%	80%	+$4,886	-$17,666	26.0%	$-40,130 (vs do-nothing $-14,892)
$376	18d	31 Jul 2026	$8.70	4/5	$5,800	$5,266	56%	74%	+$2,377	-$33,672	49.5%	$-53,362 (vs do-nothing $-28,124)
$375	7d	20 Jul 2026	$6.00	2/5	$5,143	$4,614	55%	77%	+$2,641	-$17,576	25.8%	$-40,040 (vs do-nothing $-14,802)
$375	9d	22 Jul 2026	$6.65	2/5	$4,433	$3,905	55%	75%	+$2,063	-$17,446	25.7%	$-39,910 (vs do-nothing $-14,672)
$375	11d	24 Jul 2026	$7.45	3/5	$6,095	$5,564	54%	74%	+$2,714	-$25,929	38.1%	$-47,006 (vs do-nothing $-21,768)
$375	14d	27 Jul 2026	$7.70	3/5	$4,953	$4,422	54%	74%	+$2,035	-$25,852	38.0%	$-46,930 (vs do-nothing $-21,692)
$375	18d	31 Jul 2026	$9.25	3/5	$4,625	$4,094	54%	73%	+$1,822	-$25,389	37.3%	$-46,466 (vs do-nothing $-21,228)
$374	18d	31 Jul 2026	$9.85	3/5	$4,925	$4,394	51%	72%	+$1,873	-$25,509	37.5%	$-46,586 (vs do-nothing $-21,348)
$374	4d	17 Jul 2026	$6.20	1/5	$4,650	$4,124	51%	79%	+$2,561	-$8,868	13.0%	$-32,719 (vs do-nothing $-7,481)
$374	14d	27 Jul 2026	$8.26	3/5	$5,307	$4,776	51%	73%	+$2,086	-$25,987	38.2%	$-47,065 (vs do-nothing $-21,826)
$374	11d	24 Jul 2026	$8.05	3/5	$6,586	$6,055	51%	73%	+$2,800	-$26,049	38.3%	$-47,126 (vs do-nothing $-21,888)
$374	7d	20 Jul 2026	$6.65	2/5	$5,700	$5,171	51%	76%	+$2,777	-$17,646	25.9%	$-40,110 (vs do-nothing $-14,872)
$374	9d	22 Jul 2026	$7.35	2/5	$4,900	$4,371	51%	74%	+$2,200	-$17,506	25.7%	$-39,970 (vs do-nothing $-14,732)
$373	18d	31 Jul 2026	$10.50	3/5	$5,250	$4,719	49%	71%	+$1,936	-$25,614	37.7%	$-46,691 (vs do-nothing $-21,453)
$373	14d	27 Jul 2026	$8.85	3/5	$5,692	$5,160	49%	72%	+$2,148	-$26,108	38.4%	$-47,185 (vs do-nothing $-21,947)
$373	11d	24 Jul 2026	$8.60	2/5	$4,691	$4,162	48%	72%	+$1,877	-$17,456	25.7%	$-39,920 (vs do-nothing $-14,682)
$373	9d	22 Jul 2026	$7.95	2/5	$5,300	$4,771	48%	73%	+$2,244	-$17,586	25.9%	$-40,050 (vs do-nothing $-14,812)
$373	7d	20 Jul 2026	$7.30	2/5	$6,257	$5,728	47%	75%	+$2,872	-$17,716	26.1%	$-40,180 (vs do-nothing $-14,942)
$372	18d	31 Jul 2026	$11.10	3/5	$5,550	$5,019	47%	70%	+$1,960	-$25,734	37.8%	$-46,811 (vs do-nothing $-21,573)
$373	4d	17 Jul 2026	$6.70	1/5	$5,025	$4,499	47%	77%	+$2,525	-$8,918	13.1%	$-32,769 (vs do-nothing $-7,531)
$372	14d	27 Jul 2026	$9.49	3/5	$6,101	$5,570	46%	71%	+$2,214	-$26,217	38.6%	$-47,294 (vs do-nothing $-22,056)
$372	11d	24 Jul 2026	$9.35	2/5	$5,100	$4,571	46%	72%	+$1,978	-$17,506	25.7%	$-39,970 (vs do-nothing $-14,732)
$371	18d	31 Jul 2026	$11.75	3/5	$5,875	$5,344	45%	70%	+$1,997	-$25,839	38.0%	$-46,916 (vs do-nothing $-21,678)
$372	9d	22 Jul 2026	$7.55	2/5	$5,033	$4,505	45%	72%	+$1,596	-$17,866	26.3%	$-40,330 (vs do-nothing $-15,092)
$372	7d	20 Jul 2026	$7.85	2/5	$6,729	$6,200	44%	73%	+$2,842	-$17,806	26.2%	$-40,270 (vs do-nothing $-15,032)
$371	14d	27 Jul 2026	$10.12	3/5	$6,504	$5,973	43%	70%	+$2,253	-$26,328	38.7%	$-47,406 (vs do-nothing $-22,168)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-13 16:21