125 contracts (12,500 sh) | BE SS: $39.71 | CC-SS: $35.86 (banked floor $34.31) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $277,625 | (ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 12500 |
| Normal income ref | $38,182/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay โ $0/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-204,438 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Status | Leg | Credit/sh | Credit | Opened | Closed | Close/sh | Banked | Account | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLOSED | 28x $18C 23 Oct 2026 | $0.20 | $560 | 2026-10-20 | 2026-10-21 | $0.20 | $0 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 50x $18C 23 Oct 2026 | $0.20 | $1,000 | 2026-10-20 | 2026-10-21 | $0.20 | $0 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 47x $18C 23 Oct 2026 | $0.20 | $940 | 2026-10-20 | 2026-10-21 | $0.20 | $0 | U10001299 | execution |
| EXPIRED | 125x $20C 16 Oct 2026 | $0.17 | $2,125 | 2026-10-15 | 2026-10-17 | $0.00 | $2,125 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 34x $21C 16 Oct 2026 | $0.12 | $408 | 2026-10-14 | 2026-10-15 | $0.06 | $204 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 12x $21C 16 Oct 2026 | $0.12 | $144 | 2026-10-14 | 2026-10-15 | $0.06 | $72 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 11x $21C 16 Oct 2026 | $0.12 | $132 | 2026-10-14 | 2026-10-15 | $0.06 | $66 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 10x $21C 16 Oct 2026 | $0.12 | $120 | 2026-10-14 | 2026-10-15 | $0.06 | $60 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 9x $21C 16 Oct 2026 | $0.12 | $108 | 2026-10-14 | 2026-10-15 | $0.06 | $54 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 8x $21C 16 Oct 2026 | $0.12 | $96 | 2026-10-14 | 2026-10-15 | $0.06 | $48 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 7x $21C 16 Oct 2026 | $0.12 | $84 | 2026-10-14 | 2026-10-15 | $0.06 | $42 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 34x $21C 16 Oct 2026 | $0.12 | $408 | 2026-10-14 | 2026-10-15 | $0.06 | $204 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 125x $22C 16 Oct 2026 | $0.15 | $1,875 | 2026-10-13 | 2026-10-14 | $0.06 | $1,125 | U10001299 | execution |
| EXPIRED | 100x $23C 9 Oct 2026 | $0.10 | $979 | 2026-10-08 | 2026-10-12 | $0.00 | $979 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 50x $24C 9 Oct 2026 | $0.18 | $906 | 2026-10-07 | 2026-10-08 | $0.04 | $706 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $24C 9 Oct 2026 | $0.18 | $18 | 2026-10-07 | 2026-10-08 | $0.03 | $15 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $24C 9 Oct 2026 | $0.18 | $18 | 2026-10-07 | 2026-10-08 | $0.03 | $15 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $24C 9 Oct 2026 | $0.18 | $18 | 2026-10-07 | 2026-10-08 | $0.04 | $14 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $24C 9 Oct 2026 | $0.18 | $18 | 2026-10-07 | 2026-10-08 | $0.03 | $15 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 18x $24C 9 Oct 2026 | $0.18 | $326 | 2026-10-07 | 2026-10-08 | $0.03 | $272 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 14x $24C 9 Oct 2026 | $0.18 | $254 | 2026-10-07 | 2026-10-08 | $0.04 | $198 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 14x $24C 9 Oct 2026 | $0.18 | $254 | 2026-10-07 | 2026-10-08 | $0.04 | $198 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 41x $25C 9 Oct 2026 | $0.19 | $779 | 2026-10-06 | 2026-10-07 | $0.09 | $410 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 4x $25C 9 Oct 2026 | $0.19 | $76 | 2026-10-06 | 2026-10-07 | $0.12 | $28 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 14x $25C 9 Oct 2026 | $0.19 | $266 | 2026-10-06 | 2026-10-07 | $0.09 | $140 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 41x $25C 9 Oct 2026 | $0.19 | $779 | 2026-10-06 | 2026-10-07 | $0.09 | $410 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 30x $28C 9 Oct 2026 | $0.15 | $437 | 2026-10-05 | 2026-10-06 | $0.03 | $347 | U10001299 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 40x $28C 9 Oct 2026 | $0.15 | $583 | 2026-10-05 | 2026-10-06 | $0.03 | $463 | U10001299 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 30x $28C 9 Oct 2026 | $0.15 | $437 | 2026-10-05 | 2026-10-06 | $0.03 | $347 | U10001299 | snapshot |
| EXPIRED | 100x $26C 2 Oct 2026 | $0.26 | $2,631 | 2026-09-29 | 2026-10-05 | $0.00 | $2,631 | U10001299 | snapshot |
| UNKNOWN | 100x $30C 16 Oct 2026 | $0.66 | $6,603 | 2026-09-25 | 2026-09-29 | $0.66 | $0 | U10001299 | snapshot |
| UNKNOWN | 100x $32.5C 16 Oct 2026 | $0.34 | $3,431 | 2026-09-21 | 2026-09-25 | $0.34 | $0 | U10001299 | snapshot |
| UNKNOWN | 100x $26.5C 25 Sep 2026 | $0.16 | $1,600 | 2026-09-18 | 2026-09-21 | $0.16 | $0 | U10001299 | execution |
| EXPIRED | 100x $30C 11 Sep 2026 | $0.13 | $1,258 | 2026-09-08 | 2026-09-14 | $0.00 | $1,258 | U10001299 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 50x $30C 28 Aug 2026 | $0.11 | $529 | 2026-08-24 | 2026-08-25 | $0.03 | $379 | U10001299 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 50x $30C 28 Aug 2026 | $0.11 | $529 | 2026-08-24 | 2026-08-25 | $0.03 | $379 | U10001299 | snapshot |
| EXPIRED | 100x $24C 21 Aug 2026 | $0.27 | $2,700 | 2026-08-14 | 2026-08-24 | $0.00 | $2,700 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 81x $26C 21 Aug 2026 | $0.14 | $1,134 | 2026-08-13 | 2026-08-14 | $0.09 | $405 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 19x $26C 21 Aug 2026 | $0.14 | $266 | 2026-08-13 | 2026-08-14 | $0.09 | $95 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 62x $27C 24 Jul 2026 | $0.12 | $744 | 2026-07-18 | 2026-07-20 | $0.19 | $-434 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 63x $27C 24 Jul 2026 | $0.12 | $756 | 2026-07-18 | 2026-07-20 | $0.19 | $-441 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 50x $30C 17 Jul 2026 | $0.21 | $1,027 | 2026-07-11 | 2026-07-14 | $0.03 | $877 | U10001299 | seed |
| CLOSED | 50x $30C 17 Jul 2026 | $0.21 | $1,027 | 2026-07-11 | 2026-07-14 | $0.03 | $877 | U10001299 | seed |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 125 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 ⚡ | 30 Oct 2026 · 4d | 125 × $18 | 83% | $24,375 | $5,634 |
| NEXT FRIDAY ⚡ | 6 Nov 2026 · 11d | 125 × $17.50 | 74% | $20,455 | $-1,234 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | ๐ก safe yield | 125 × $19.50 | 30 Oct | 4d | 24.7% | 92%hist 95% | 17%hist 13% | +3pp | $1,125 | $8,438 | -$15,938 | $203,343 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 ร $19.50 24.7% OTM over spot $15.64 30 Oct 2026 (4d, $0.14 mid) = $1,125 credit for the 4d cycle โ $8,438/mo projected Survival (stays โค $19.50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays โค $19.64) 93% EV / mo +$2,499 ๐ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 35% whole by 9mo vs 32% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,642/mo median; plan ~$3,157/mo after 68% keep · $29,441 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.7 mo [1.6-4.9], measured ONLY among the 35% of futures that got whole ๐ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$12,048 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026) $22 @ 75% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.49/sh now โ $1.05 mid-life (likely $0.91โ$1.71) โ โ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.96/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours ๐ Across 306 simulated challenges: the $20 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $20 (overshoots $0.87). The [P25โP75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays โค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $19.50 is $16 below CC-SS $35.86: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot โฅ $19.64 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โ $20)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $24.68 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic ยท fortress delta 0.72 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ CC-SS $35.86, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-204,438 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$181,957 โ CC assignment net of premium (125 ร $19.50): -$203,343 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-225,824 ($-21,386 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-170,074 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-55,750, the opportunity cost of earning $8,438/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (โ $22.82 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$40,375, position total $-180,192 (+$24,245 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 125 × $19 | 30 Oct | 4d | 21.5% | 90%hist 86% | 22%hist 23% | +4pp | $1,875 | $14,062 | -$10,313 | $208,843 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 ร $19 21.5% OTM over spot $15.64 30 Oct 2026 (4d, $0.26 mid) = $1,875 credit for the 4d cycle โ $14,062/mo projected Survival (stays โค $19) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays โค $19.26) 91% EV / mo +$5,580 ๐ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 37% whole by 9mo vs 33% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $7,112/mo median; plan ~$4,836/mo after 68% keep · $44,506 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.6 mo [1.7-4.9], measured ONLY among the 37% of futures that got whole ๐ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$10,837 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026) $22 @ 76% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.44/sh now โ $1.02 mid-life (likely $0.96โ$1.78) โ โ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.87/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours ๐ Across 425 simulated challenges: the $19 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $20 (overshoots $0.92). The [P25โP75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays โค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $19 is $17 below CC-SS $35.86: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot โฅ $19.26 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โ $19)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $24.68 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic ยท fortress delta 0.72 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ CC-SS $35.86, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-204,438 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$181,957 โ CC assignment net of premium (125 ร $19): -$208,843 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-231,324 ($-26,886 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-170,074 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-61,250, the opportunity cost of earning $14,062/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (โ $22.82 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$45,875, position total $-185,692 (+$18,745 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | ๐ฏ 50% normal | 125 × $18 | 30 Oct | 4d | 15.1% | 83%hist 86% | 36%hist 30% | +9pp | $3,250 | $24,375 | — | $219,968 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 ร $18 15.1% OTM over spot $15.64 30 Oct 2026 (4d, $0.32 mid) = $3,250 credit for the 4d cycle โ $24,375/mo projected Survival (stays โค $18) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays โค $18.32) 85% EV / mo +$7,055 ๐ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 40% whole by 9mo vs 30% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $10,584/mo median; plan ~$7,197/mo after 68% keep · $64,266 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.8 mo [1.7-5.2], measured ONLY among the 40% of futures that got whole ๐ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$8,560 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 6 Nov 2026) $20 @ 78% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.34/sh now โ $0.94 mid-life (likely $0.98โ$1.67) โ โ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.68/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours ๐ Across 722 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $19 (overshoots $0.83). The [P25โP75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays โค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18 is $18 below CC-SS $35.86: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.26 collected) or spot โฅ $18.32 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โ $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $24.68 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic ยท fortress delta 0.72 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ CC-SS $35.86, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-204,438 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$181,957 โ CC assignment net of premium (125 ร $18): -$219,968 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-242,449 ($-38,011 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-170,074 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-72,375, the opportunity cost of earning $24,375/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (โ $22.82 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$57,000, position total $-196,818 (+$7,620 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 125 × $17 | 30 Oct | 4d | 8.7% | 73%hist 83% | 58%hist 44% | +16pp | $6,125 | $45,938 | +$21,562 | $229,593 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 ร $17 8.7% OTM over spot $15.64 30 Oct 2026 (4d, $0.54 mid) = $6,125 credit for the 4d cycle โ $45,938/mo projected Survival (stays โค $17) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays โค $17.55) 79% EV / mo +$11,335 ๐ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +16pp 48% whole by 9mo vs 32% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~6.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $15,433/mo median; plan ~$10,495/mo after 68% keep · $89,269 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.7 mo [1.5-4.8], measured ONLY among the 48% of futures that got whole ๐ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 40% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,808 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 6 Nov 2026) $20 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.24/sh now โ $0.87 mid-life (likely $1.01โ$1.63) โ โ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.49/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.38/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours ๐ Across 1,196 simulated challenges: the $17 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $18 (overshoots $0.76). The [P25โP75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays โค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17 is $19 below CC-SS $35.86: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.49 collected) or spot โฅ $17.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โ $17)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $24.68 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic ยท fortress delta 0.72 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ CC-SS $35.86, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-204,438 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$181,957 โ CC assignment net of premium (125 ร $17): -$229,593 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-252,074 ($-47,636 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-170,074 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-82,000, the opportunity cost of earning $45,938/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (โ $22.82 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$66,625, position total $-206,442 ($-2,005 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | ๐ก safe yield | 125 × $21 | 6 Nov | 11d | 34.3% | 93%hist 95% | 16%hist 13% | +1pp | $875 | $2,386 | -$18,068 | $184,843 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 ร $21 34.3% OTM over spot $15.64 6 Nov 2026 (11d, $0.28 mid) = $875 credit for the 11d cycle โ $2,386/mo projected Survival (stays โค $21) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays โค $21.27) 93% EV / mo $-498 ๐ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 28% whole by 9mo vs 28% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,450/mo median; plan ~$986/mo after 68% keep · $10,820 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.6 mo [2.0-5.7], measured ONLY among the 28% of futures that got whole ๐ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$18,486 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026) $22 @ 71% POP 64% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.19/sh now โ $1.55 mid-life (likely $1.20โ$2.02) โ โ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours ๐ Across 311 simulated challenges: the $21 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $22 (overshoots $0.74). The [P25โP75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays โค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $21 is $15 below CC-SS $35.86: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.07 collected) or spot โฅ $21.27 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โ $21)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $24.68 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic ยท fortress delta 0.72 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ CC-SS $35.86, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-204,438 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$181,957 โ CC assignment net of premium (125 ร $21): -$184,843 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-207,324 ($-2,886 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-170,074 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-37,250, the opportunity cost of earning $2,386/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (โ $22.82 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$21,875, position total $-161,692 (+$42,745 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 125 × $18.50 | 6 Nov | 11d | 18.3% | 79%hist 83% | 44%hist 40% | +5pp | $5,000 | $13,636 | -$6,818 | $211,968 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 ร $18.50 18.3% OTM over spot $15.64 6 Nov 2026 (11d, $0.54 mid) = $5,000 credit for the 11d cycle โ $13,636/mo projected Survival (stays โค $18.50) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays โค $19.04) 83% EV / mo +$170 ๐ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 32% whole by 9mo vs 26% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $5,192/mo median; plan ~$3,531/mo after 68% keep · $39,041 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.2 mo [2.0-5.5], measured ONLY among the 32% of futures that got whole ๐ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 31% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$11,076 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026) $21 @ 76% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.82/sh now โ $1.29 mid-life (likely $1.29โ$1.91) โ โ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.89/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours ๐ Across 925 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $19 (overshoots $0.67). The [P25โP75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays โค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18.50 is $17 below CC-SS $35.86: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.40 collected) or spot โฅ $19.04 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โ $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $24.68 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic ยท fortress delta 0.72 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ CC-SS $35.86, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-204,438 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$181,957 โ CC assignment net of premium (125 ร $18.50): -$211,968 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-234,449 ($-30,011 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-170,074 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-64,375, the opportunity cost of earning $13,636/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (โ $22.82 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$49,000, position total $-188,818 (+$15,620 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | ๐ฏ 50% normal | 125 × $17.50 | 6 Nov | 11d | 11.9% | 74%hist 83% | 55%hist 44% | +8pp | $7,500 | $20,455 | — | $221,968 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 ร $17.50 11.9% OTM over spot $15.64 6 Nov 2026 (11d, $0.67 mid) = $7,500 credit for the 11d cycle โ $20,455/mo projected Survival (stays โค $17.50) 74% Breach risk 26% POP (stays โค $18.16) 80% EV / mo +$4,766 ๐ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 30% whole by 9mo vs 22% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $7,268/mo median; plan ~$4,942/mo after 68% keep · $54,812 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.1 mo [2.4-5.8], measured ONLY among the 30% of futures that got whole ๐ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 46% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$7,337 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026) $20 @ 77% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.68/sh now โ $1.19 mid-life (likely $1.38โ$1.94) โ โ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.59/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours ๐ Across 1,380 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $18 (overshoots $0.64). The [P25โP75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays โค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17.50 is $18 below CC-SS $35.86: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.60 collected) or spot โฅ $18.16 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โ $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $24.68 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic ยท fortress delta 0.72 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ CC-SS $35.86, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-204,438 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$181,957 โ CC assignment net of premium (125 ร $17.50): -$221,968 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-244,449 ($-40,011 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-170,074 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-74,375, the opportunity cost of earning $20,455/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (โ $22.82 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$59,000, position total $-198,818 (+$5,620 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 125 × $15.50 | 6 Nov | 11d | -0.9% | 53%hist 70% | 100%hist 89% | · | $15,750 | $42,955 | +$22,500 | $238,718 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 ร $15.50 0.9% ITM over spot $15.64 6 Nov 2026 (11d, $1.38 mid) = $15,750 credit for the 11d cycle โ $42,955/mo projected Survival (stays โค $15.50) 53% Breach risk 47% POP (stays โค $16.88) 68% EV / mo +$2,555 ๐ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$3,266 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 13 Nov 2026) $21 @ 91% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.41/sh now โ $1.00 mid-life โ โ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.26/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays โค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15.50 is $20 below CC-SS $35.86: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.32/sh (~25% of the $1.26 collected) or spot โฅ $16.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โ $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $24.68 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic ยท fortress delta 0.72 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ CC-SS $35.86, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-204,438 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$181,957 โ CC assignment net of premium (125 ร $15.50): -$238,718 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-261,199 ($-56,761 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-170,074 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-91,125, the opportunity cost of earning $42,955/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (โ $22.82 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$75,750, position total $-215,568 ($-11,130 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 15 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary ๐ฏ is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.720 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$181,957 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-170,074
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Per cycle | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | Touch | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Recover | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $18 | 4d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.26 | 125/125 | $3,250 | $24,375 | $24,375 | 83%hist 86% | 36%hist 30% | 85% | +$7,055 | -$219,968 | 796.3% | 5.8mo | $-242,449 (vs do-nothing $-72,375) |
| $17.50 | 4d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.32 | 125/125 | $4,000 | $30,000 | $30,000 | 78%hist 83% | 46%hist 40% | 82% | +$5,392 | -$225,468 | 816.2% | 5.9mo | $-247,949 (vs do-nothing $-77,875) |
| $17.50 | 11d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.60 | 125/125 | $7,500 | $20,455 | $20,455 | 74%hist 83% | 55%hist 44% | 80% | +$4,766 | -$221,968 | 803.5% | 5.8mo | $-244,449 (vs do-nothing $-74,375) |
| $17 | 4d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.49 | 125/125 | $6,125 | $45,938 | $45,938 | 73%hist 83% | 58%hist 44% | 79% | +$11,335 | -$229,593 | 831.1% | 6.0mo | $-252,074 (vs do-nothing $-82,000) |
| $17 | 11d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.67 | 125/125 | $8,375 | $22,841 | $22,841 | 69%hist 66% | 66%hist 54% | 76% | +$2,152 | -$227,343 | 823.0% | 6.0mo | $-249,824 (vs do-nothing $-79,750) |
| $16.50 | 4d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.62 | 125/125 | $7,750 | $58,125 | $58,125 | 66%hist 66% | 72%hist 68% | 75% | +$10,205 | -$234,218 | 847.8% | 6.1mo | $-256,699 (vs do-nothing $-86,625) |
| $16.50 | 11d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.83 | 125/125 | $10,375 | $28,295 | $28,295 | 64%hist 66% | 78%hist 68% | 73% | +$2,348 | -$231,593 | 838.3% | 6.1mo | $-254,074 (vs do-nothing $-84,000) |
| $16.50 | 25d | 20 Nov 2026 | $1.28 | 125/125 | $16,000 | $19,200 | $19,200 | 63%hist 66% | 86%hist 79% | 71% | $-4,130 | -$225,968 | 818.0% | 5.9mo | $-248,449 (vs do-nothing $-78,375) |
| $16 | 25d | 20 Nov 2026 | $1.54 | 125/125 | $19,250 | $23,100 | $23,100 | 60%hist 70% | 94%hist 89% | 70% | $-3,160 | -$228,968 | 828.8% | 6.0mo | $-251,449 (vs do-nothing $-81,375) |
| $16 | 18d | 13 Nov 2026 | $1.27 | 125/125 | $15,875 | $26,458 | $26,458 | 59%hist 70% | 93%hist 89% | 69% | $-3,995 | -$232,343 | 841.1% | 6.1mo | $-254,824 (vs do-nothing $-84,750) |
| $16 | 4d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.85 | 125/125 | $10,625 | $79,688 | $79,688 | 59%hist 70% | 88%hist 79% | 71% | +$14,597 | -$237,593 | 860.1% | 6.2mo | $-260,074 (vs do-nothing $-90,000) |
| $16 | 11d | 6 Nov 2026 | $1.02 | 125/125 | $12,750 | $34,773 | $34,773 | 58%hist 70% | 90%hist 89% | 71% | +$2,166 | -$235,468 | 852.4% | 6.2mo | $-257,949 (vs do-nothing $-87,875) |
| $15.50 | 25d | 20 Nov 2026 | $1.74 | 125/125 | $21,750 | $26,100 | $26,100 | 56%hist 70% | 100%hist 89% | 68% | $-3,386 | -$232,718 | 842.4% | 6.1mo | $-255,199 (vs do-nothing $-85,125) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Per cycle | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | Touch | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Recover | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $15.50 | 11d | 6 Nov 2026 | $1.26 | 125/125 | $15,750 | $42,955 | $42,955 | 53%hist 70% | 100%hist 89% | 68% | +$2,555 | -$238,718 | 864.1% | 6.3mo | $-261,199 (vs do-nothing $-91,125) |
| $15.50 | 4d | 30 Oct 2026 | $1.02 | 125/125 | $12,750 | $95,625 | $95,625 | 51%hist 70% | 100%hist 89% | 67% | +$9,202 | -$241,718 | 875.0% | 6.3mo | $-264,199 (vs do-nothing $-94,125) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Per cycle | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | Touch | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Recover | Total P&L @ SS | Why not eligible |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $23 | 4d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.01 | 125/125 | $125 | $938 | $938 | 99%hist 95% | 2%hist 4% | 99% | +$638 | -$160,593 | 581.3% | 4.2mo | $-183,074 (vs do-nothing $-13,000) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $24 | 18d | 13 Nov 2026 | $0.05 | 125/125 | $625 | $1,042 | $1,042 | 98%hist 95% | 5%hist 4% | 98% | +$689 | -$147,593 | 534.3% | 3.9mo | $-170,074 (vs do-nothing +$0) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $30 | 25d | 20 Nov 2026 | $0.01 | 125/125 | $125 | $150 | $150 | 98%hist 95% | 5%hist 4% | 98% | $-442 | -$73,093 | 264.6% | 1.9mo | $-95,574 (vs do-nothing +$74,500) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $21.50 | 4d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.03 | 125/125 | $375 | $2,812 | $2,812 | 97%hist 95% | 6%hist 4% | 98% | +$1,486 | -$179,093 | 648.3% | 4.7mo | $-201,574 (vs do-nothing $-31,500) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $21 | 4d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.03 | 125/125 | $375 | $2,812 | $2,812 | 96%hist 95% | 7%hist 4% | 97% | +$831 | -$185,343 | 670.9% | 4.9mo | $-207,824 (vs do-nothing $-37,750) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $27.50 | 25d | 20 Nov 2026 | $0.01 | 125/125 | $125 | $150 | $150 | 96%hist 95% | 9%hist 4% | 96% | $-1,060 | -$104,343 | 377.7% | 2.7mo | $-126,824 (vs do-nothing +$43,250) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $20.50 | 4d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.07 | 125/125 | $875 | $6,562 | $6,562 | 95%hist 95% | 10%hist 4% | 96% | +$3,673 | -$191,093 | 691.7% | 5.0mo | $-213,574 (vs do-nothing $-43,500) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $20 | 4d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.07 | 125/125 | $875 | $6,562 | $6,562 | 94%hist 95% | 13%hist 13% | 94% | +$2,408 | -$197,343 | 714.4% | 5.2mo | $-219,824 (vs do-nothing $-49,750) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $25 | 25d | 20 Nov 2026 | $0.10 | 125/125 | $1,250 | $1,500 | $1,500 | 93%hist 95% | 15%hist 13% | 93% | $-956 | -$134,468 | 486.8% | 3.5mo | $-156,949 (vs do-nothing +$13,125) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $21 | 11d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.07 | 125/125 | $875 | $2,386 | $2,386 | 93%hist 95% | 16%hist 13% | 93% | $-498 | -$184,843 | 669.1% | 4.8mo | $-207,324 (vs do-nothing $-37,250) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $19.50 | 4d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.09 | 125/125 | $1,125 | $8,438 | $8,438 | 92%hist 95% | 17%hist 13% | 93% | +$2,499 | -$203,343 | 736.1% | 5.3mo | $-225,824 (vs do-nothing $-55,750) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $19 | 4d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.15 | 125/125 | $1,875 | $14,062 | $14,062 | 90%hist 86% | 22%hist 23% | 91% | +$5,580 | -$208,843 | 756.0% | 5.5mo | $-231,324 (vs do-nothing $-61,250) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $23 | 25d | 20 Nov 2026 | $0.17 | 125/125 | $2,125 | $2,550 | $2,550 | 89%hist 86% | 23%hist 23% | 90% | $-1,739 | -$158,593 | 574.1% | 4.2mo | $-181,074 (vs do-nothing $-11,000) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $22.50 | 25d | 20 Nov 2026 | $0.16 | 125/125 | $2,000 | $2,400 | $2,400 | 88%hist 86% | 26%hist 23% | 89% | $-2,521 | -$164,968 | 597.2% | 4.3mo | $-187,449 (vs do-nothing $-17,375) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $20 | 11d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.18 | 125/125 | $2,250 | $6,136 | $6,136 | 87%hist 86% | 27%hist 23% | 89% | $-566 | -$195,968 | 709.4% | 5.1mo | $-218,449 (vs do-nothing $-48,375) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $22 | 25d | 20 Nov 2026 | $0.21 | 125/125 | $2,625 | $3,150 | $3,150 | 87%hist 86% | 29%hist 23% | 88% | $-2,492 | -$170,593 | 617.5% | 4.5mo | $-193,074 (vs do-nothing $-23,000) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $21 | 18d | 13 Nov 2026 | $0.20 | 125/125 | $2,500 | $4,167 | $4,167 | 87%hist 86% | 29%hist 23% | 88% | $-2,091 | -$183,218 | 663.2% | 4.8mo | $-205,699 (vs do-nothing $-35,625) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $18.50 | 4d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.18 | 125/125 | $2,250 | $16,875 | $16,875 | 87%hist 86% | 28%hist 23% | 88% | +$4,748 | -$214,718 | 777.3% | 5.6mo | $-237,199 (vs do-nothing $-67,125) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $21.50 | 25d | 20 Nov 2026 | $0.24 | 125/125 | $3,000 | $3,600 | $3,600 | 86%hist 86% | 32%hist 30% | 87% | $-2,863 | -$176,468 | 638.8% | 4.6mo | $-198,949 (vs do-nothing $-28,875) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $19.50 | 11d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.22 | 125/125 | $2,750 | $7,500 | $7,500 | 85%hist 86% | 32%hist 30% | 87% | $-1,006 | -$201,718 | 730.2% | 5.3mo | $-224,199 (vs do-nothing $-54,125) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $21 | 25d | 20 Nov 2026 | $0.31 | 125/125 | $3,875 | $4,650 | $4,650 | 84%hist 86% | 35%hist 30% | 85% | $-2,746 | -$181,843 | 658.3% | 4.8mo | $-204,324 (vs do-nothing $-34,250) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $20 | 18d | 13 Nov 2026 | $0.30 | 125/125 | $3,750 | $6,250 | $6,250 | 83%hist 86% | 37%hist 30% | 85% | $-2,532 | -$194,468 | 704.0% | 5.1mo | $-216,949 (vs do-nothing $-46,875) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $19 | 11d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.22 | 125/125 | $2,750 | $7,500 | $7,500 | 82%hist 86% | 38%hist 30% | 84% | $-3,235 | -$207,968 | 752.8% | 5.4mo | $-230,449 (vs do-nothing $-60,375) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $20 | 25d | 20 Nov 2026 | $0.45 | 125/125 | $5,625 | $6,750 | $6,750 | 81%hist 86% | 43%hist 40% | 82% | $-2,900 | -$192,593 | 697.2% | 5.0mo | $-215,074 (vs do-nothing $-45,000) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $18.50 | 11d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.40 | 125/125 | $5,000 | $13,636 | $13,636 | 79%hist 83% | 44%hist 40% | 83% | +$170 | -$211,968 | 767.3% | 5.6mo | $-234,449 (vs do-nothing $-64,375) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $19.50 | 25d | 20 Nov 2026 | $0.42 | 125/125 | $5,250 | $6,300 | $6,300 | 79%hist 83% | 48%hist 40% | 81% | $-4,701 | -$199,218 | 721.2% | 5.2mo | $-221,699 (vs do-nothing $-51,625) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $19 | 18d | 13 Nov 2026 | $0.45 | 125/125 | $5,625 | $9,375 | $9,375 | 79%hist 83% | 47%hist 40% | 81% | $-2,831 | -$205,093 | 742.4% | 5.4mo | $-227,574 (vs do-nothing $-57,500) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $19 | 25d | 20 Nov 2026 | $0.39 | 125/125 | $4,875 | $5,850 | $5,850 | 76%hist 83% | 53%hist 44% | 79% | $-6,674 | -$205,843 | 745.1% | 5.4mo | $-228,324 (vs do-nothing $-58,250) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $18 | 11d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.43 | 125/125 | $5,375 | $14,659 | $14,659 | 76%hist 83% | 52%hist 44% | 80% | $-2,127 | -$217,843 | 788.6% | 5.7mo | $-240,324 (vs do-nothing $-70,250) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $18.50 | 25d | 20 Nov 2026 | $0.76 | 125/125 | $9,500 | $11,400 | $11,400 | 74%hist 83% | 59%hist 44% | 78% | $-2,835 | -$207,468 | 751.0% | 5.4mo | $-229,949 (vs do-nothing $-59,875) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $18 | 18d | 13 Nov 2026 | $0.61 | 125/125 | $7,625 | $12,708 | $12,708 | 73%hist 83% | 60%hist 44% | 77% | $-4,068 | -$215,593 | 780.4% | 5.6mo | $-238,074 (vs do-nothing $-68,000) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $18 | 25d | 20 Nov 2026 | $0.89 | 125/125 | $11,125 | $13,350 | $13,350 | 72%hist 83% | 65%hist 54% | 76% | $-2,803 | -$212,093 | 767.8% | 5.6mo | $-234,574 (vs do-nothing $-64,500) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $17.50 | 25d | 20 Nov 2026 | $1.01 | 125/125 | $12,625 | $15,150 | $15,150 | 69%hist 66% | 71%hist 68% | 75% | $-3,145 | -$216,843 | 785.0% | 5.7mo | $-239,324 (vs do-nothing $-69,250) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $17 | 18d | 13 Nov 2026 | $0.86 | 125/125 | $10,750 | $17,917 | $17,917 | 66%hist 66% | 75%hist 68% | 73% | $-4,850 | -$224,968 | 814.4% | 5.9mo | $-247,449 (vs do-nothing $-77,375) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $17 | 25d | 20 Nov 2026 | $1.09 | 125/125 | $13,625 | $16,350 | $16,350 | 66%hist 66% | 78%hist 68% | 73% | $-4,332 | -$222,093 | 804.0% | 5.8mo | $-244,574 (vs do-nothing $-74,500) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
Per cycle = bid x 100 x contracts, the cash this expiry pays. Touch = P(strike trades before expiry), with the graded record's hist pill. Recover = months of this income to close the hole to CC-SS. Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 125 contracts at the conservative CC.