125 contracts (12,500 sh) | BE SS: $39.71 | CC-SS: $34.05 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $277,625 | (ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 12500 |
| Normal income ref | $37,734/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $4,571/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-104,188 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 125 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY | 10 Jul 2026 · 2d | 90 × $26 | 81% | $18,900 | $-10,718 |
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 9d | 100 × $27 | 77% | $19,000 | $-2,121 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 102 × $29 | 10 Jul | 2d | 20.3% | 96% | 8% | $306 | $4,590 | -$14,310 | $51,166 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 102 × $29 20.3% OTM over spot $24.10 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.16 mid) = $306 credit for the 2d cycle → $4,590/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $29) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $29.16) 97% EV / mo +$1,807 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.8-2.8] median · 58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without) · ~0.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $-9,269 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 2% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$11,621 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $33 @ 79% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 102 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.65/sh now → $1.17 mid-life (likely $1.03–$2.24) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.03/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.14/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 53 simulated challenges: the $29 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $30 (overshoots $0.95). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $29 is $5 below CC-SS $34.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.03 collected) or spot ≥ $29.16 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $29)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.58 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.05, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-104,188 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$104,187 − CC assignment net of premium (102 × $29): -$51,166 + Conservative CC premium (23 × $35): +$69 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-51,097 (+$53,090 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $375 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-51,472, the opportunity cost of earning $4,590/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$60,078, position total $-50,857 (+$53,330 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 125 × $27.50 | 10 Jul | 2d | 14.1% | 92% | 17% | $625 | $9,375 | -$9,525 | $81,204 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 × $27.50 14.1% OTM over spot $24.10 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.19 mid) = $625 credit for the 2d cycle → $9,375/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27.50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $27.69) 93% EV / mo $-701 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.7-2.6] median · 58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without) · ~4.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,843 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$12,908 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $31 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.53/sh now → $1.08 mid-life (likely $1.16–$2.16) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 244 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $28 (overshoots $0.90). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27.50 is $7 below CC-SS $34.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $27.69 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.58 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.05, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-104,188 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$104,187 − CC assignment net of premium (125 × $27.50): -$81,204 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-81,204 (+$22,984 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $375 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-81,579, the opportunity cost of earning $9,375/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$92,125, position total $-82,973 (+$21,214 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 104 × $26.50 | 10 Jul | 2d | 10.0% | 85% | 30% | $832 | $12,480 | -$6,420 | $77,650 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 104 × $26.50 10.0% OTM over spot $24.10 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.24 mid) = $832 credit for the 2d cycle → $12,480/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26.50) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $26.74) 87% EV / mo $-5,902 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.8-3.2] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.7 mo) · 54% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 49% without) · ~10.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,725 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 17% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$9,842 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $29 @ 77% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 104 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.45/sh now → $1.03 mid-life (likely $1.12–$2.13) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.95/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 502 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $27 (overshoots $0.89). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $26.50 is $8 below CC-SS $34.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $26.74 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.58 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.05, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-104,188 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$104,187 − CC assignment net of premium (104 × $26.50): -$77,650 + Conservative CC premium (21 × $35): +$63 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-77,587 (+$26,601 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $375 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-77,962, the opportunity cost of earning $12,480/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$86,736, position total $-77,521 (+$26,666 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 90 × $26 | 10 Jul | 2d | 7.9% | 81% | 22% | $1,260 | $18,900 | — | $71,157 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 90 × $26 7.9% OTM over spot $24.10 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.32 mid) = $1,260 credit for the 2d cycle → $18,900/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $26.32) 84% EV / mo $-4,877 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.9-3.4] median · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 50% without) · ~15.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $16,545 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$7,729 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $30 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 90 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.41/sh now → $1.00 mid-life (likely $1.12–$2.18) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.86/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 659 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $27 (overshoots $0.90). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $26 is $8 below CC-SS $34.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.14 collected) or spot ≥ $26.32 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.58 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.05, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-104,188 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$104,187 − CC assignment net of premium (90 × $26): -$71,157 + Conservative CC premium (35 × $35): +$105 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-71,052 (+$33,136 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $375 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-71,427, the opportunity cost of earning $18,900/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$79,020, position total $-69,763 (+$34,424 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 90 × $25.50 | 10 Jul | 2d | 5.8% | 75% | 52% | $2,520 | $37,800 | +$18,900 | $74,397 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 90 × $25.50 5.8% OTM over spot $24.10 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.43 mid) = $2,520 credit for the 2d cycle → $37,800/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25.50) 75% Breach risk 25% POP (stays ≤ $25.93) 80% EV / mo +$2,379 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.8-2.9] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.8 mo) · 68% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 55% without) · ~18.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $32,853 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 29% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,223 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $29 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 90 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.37/sh now → $0.97 mid-life (likely $1.15–$2.30) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.28/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.69/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 879 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 2, at $26 (overshoots $0.99). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $25.50 is $9 below CC-SS $34.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.28 collected) or spot ≥ $25.93 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.58 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.05, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-104,188 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$104,187 − CC assignment net of premium (90 × $25.50): -$74,397 + Conservative CC premium (35 × $35): +$105 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-74,292 (+$29,896 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $375 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-74,667, the opportunity cost of earning $37,800/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$82,260, position total $-73,003 (+$31,184 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 98 × $30 | 17 Jul | 9d | 24.5% | 91% | 19% | $1,372 | $4,573 | -$14,427 | $38,282 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 98 × $30 24.5% OTM over spot $24.10 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.40 mid) = $1,372 credit for the 9d cycle → $4,573/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $30) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $30.40) 92% EV / mo +$603 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.7-2.9] median · 48% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 46% without) · ~2.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $-12,150 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$18,399 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $30 @ 66% POP 54% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 98 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.85/sh now → $2.02 mid-life (likely $1.71–$2.74) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.88/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 384 simulated challenges: the $30 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $31 (overshoots $1.02). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $30 is $4 below CC-SS $34.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.14 collected) or spot ≥ $30.40 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $30)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.58 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.05, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-104,188 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$104,187 − CC assignment net of premium (98 × $30): -$38,282 + Conservative CC premium (27 × $35): +$81 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-38,201 (+$65,987 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $375 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-38,576, the opportunity cost of earning $4,573/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$46,844, position total $-37,611 (+$66,576 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 125 × $30 | 17 Jul | 9d | 24.5% | 91% | 19% | $1,750 | $5,833 | -$13,167 | $48,829 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 × $30 24.5% OTM over spot $24.10 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.40 mid) = $1,750 credit for the 9d cycle → $5,833/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $30) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $30.40) 92% EV / mo +$769 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.8-3.0] median · 58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without) · ~2.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $-3,618 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$23,468 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $30 @ 66% POP 54% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.85/sh now → $2.02 mid-life (likely $1.67–$2.91) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.88/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 389 simulated challenges: the $30 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $31 (overshoots $1.01). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $30 is $4 below CC-SS $34.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.14 collected) or spot ≥ $30.40 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $30)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.58 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.05, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-104,188 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$104,187 − CC assignment net of premium (125 × $30): -$48,829 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-48,829 (+$55,359 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $375 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-49,204, the opportunity cost of earning $5,833/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$59,750, position total $-50,598 (+$53,589 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 107 × $28 | 17 Jul | 9d | 16.2% | 83% | 36% | $3,745 | $12,483 | -$6,517 | $60,950 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 107 × $28 16.2% OTM over spot $24.10 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.53 mid) = $3,745 credit for the 9d cycle → $12,483/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $28) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $28.53) 86% EV / mo +$1,696 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.8-3.1] median · 56% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 50% without) · ~4.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,892 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 28% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$15,720 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $29 @ 69% POP 60% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 107 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.57/sh now → $1.82 mid-life (likely $1.77–$2.77) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.47/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 835 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $29 (overshoots $0.92). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $28 is $6 below CC-SS $34.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.35 collected) or spot ≥ $28.53 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.58 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.05, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-104,188 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$104,187 − CC assignment net of premium (107 × $28): -$60,950 + Conservative CC premium (18 × $35): +$54 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-60,896 (+$43,291 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $375 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-61,271, the opportunity cost of earning $12,483/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$70,299, position total $-61,093 (+$43,094 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 100 × $27 | 17 Jul | 9d | 12.0% | 77% | 37% | $5,700 | $19,000 | — | $64,763 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 100 × $27 12.0% OTM over spot $24.10 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.81 mid) = $5,700 credit for the 9d cycle → $19,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $27.82) 82% EV / mo +$3,493 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.7-2.9] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.5 mo) · 59% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without) · ~6.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $11,370 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 37% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$11,534 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $28 @ 72% POP 64% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 100 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.44/sh now → $1.72 mid-life (likely $1.89–$2.79) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.57/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.15/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,103 simulated challenges: the $27 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 9, at $28 (overshoots $0.90). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27 is $7 below CC-SS $34.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.57 collected) or spot ≥ $27.82 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $27)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.58 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.05, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-104,188 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$104,187 − CC assignment net of premium (100 × $27): -$64,763 + Conservative CC premium (25 × $35): +$75 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-64,688 (+$39,499 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $375 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-65,063, the opportunity cost of earning $19,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$73,500, position total $-64,273 (+$39,914 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 107 × $25 | 17 Jul | 9d | 3.7% | 62% | 82% | $11,342 | $37,807 | +$18,807 | $85,453 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 107 × $25 3.7% OTM over spot $24.10 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $1.33 mid) = $11,342 credit for the 9d cycle → $37,807/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25) 62% Breach risk 38% POP (stays ≤ $26.33) 73% EV / mo +$1,261 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.8-3.1] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.6 mo) · 64% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without) · ~15.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $22,040 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 66% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,123 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $29 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 107 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.17/sh now → $1.54 mid-life (likely $2.05–$2.85) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,974 simulated challenges: the $25 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $26 (overshoots $0.89). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $25 is $9 below CC-SS $34.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.27/sh (~25% of the $1.06 collected) or spot ≥ $26.33 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $25)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.58 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.05, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-104,188 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$104,187 − CC assignment net of premium (107 × $25): -$85,453 + Conservative CC premium (18 × $35): +$54 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-85,399 (+$18,788 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $375 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-85,774, the opportunity cost of earning $37,807/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$94,802, position total $-85,596 (+$18,591 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 16 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.838 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$104,187 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $375
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $26 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.14 | 90/125 | $18,900 | $14,526 | 81% | 84% | $-4,877 | -$71,157 | 257.6% | $-71,052 (vs do-nothing $-71,427) |
| $27 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.57 | 100/125 | $19,000 | $14,570 | 77% | 82% | +$3,493 | -$64,763 | 234.4% | $-64,688 (vs do-nothing $-65,063) |
| $25.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.28 | 45/125 | $18,900 | $14,779 | 75% | 80% | +$1,190 | -$37,198 | 134.7% | $-36,958 (vs do-nothing $-37,333) |
| $27 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.87 | 116/125 | $18,922 | $14,402 | 74% | 80% | +$2,232 | -$71,645 | 259.3% | $-71,618 (vs do-nothing $-71,993) |
| $26.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.04 | 97/125 | $18,915 | $14,502 | 71% | 78% | +$2,616 | -$63,111 | 228.5% | $-63,027 (vs do-nothing $-63,402) |
| $26 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.80 | 71/125 | $18,933 | $14,666 | 70% | 77% | +$2,374 | -$51,449 | 186.2% | $-51,287 (vs do-nothing $-51,662) |
| $26 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.14 | 89/125 | $19,024 | $14,656 | 68% | 76% | +$1,634 | -$61,466 | 222.5% | $-61,358 (vs do-nothing $-61,733) |
| $25 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.26 | 49/125 | $19,110 | $14,967 | 67% | 75% | $-9,281 | -$43,053 | 155.8% | $-42,825 (vs do-nothing $-43,200) |
| $25.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.31 | 77/125 | $18,913 | $14,612 | 64% | 74% | +$1,494 | -$55,720 | 201.7% | $-55,576 (vs do-nothing $-55,951) |
| $25 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.06 | 54/125 | $19,080 | $14,909 | 62% | 73% | +$636 | -$43,126 | 156.1% | $-42,913 (vs do-nothing $-43,288) |
| $25 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.41 | 72/125 | $19,035 | $14,762 | 61% | 72% | +$261 | -$54,981 | 199.0% | $-54,822 (vs do-nothing $-55,197) |
| $24.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.35 | 36/125 | $18,900 | $14,830 | 59% | 71% | $-11,197 | -$33,107 | 119.8% | $-32,840 (vs do-nothing $-33,215) |
| $24.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.48 | 68/125 | $18,870 | $14,620 | 57% | 70% | $-1,474 | -$54,851 | 198.6% | $-54,680 (vs do-nothing $-55,055) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $24 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.71 | 59/125 | $18,917 | $14,717 | 54% | 69% | $-1,245 | -$49,184 | 178.0% | $-48,986 (vs do-nothing $-49,361) |
| $24 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.45 | 40/125 | $19,333 | $15,241 | 52% | 68% | $-108 | -$34,385 | 124.5% | $-34,130 (vs do-nothing $-34,505) |
| $24 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.85 | 15/125 | $19,125 | $15,173 | 50% | 69% | +$1,507 | -$13,794 | 49.9% | $-13,464 (vs do-nothing $-13,839) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 125 contracts at the conservative CC.