125 contracts (12,500 sh) | BE SS: $39.71 | CC-SS: $31.89 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $277,625 | (ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 12500 |
| Normal income ref | $46,875/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $4,304/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-67,938 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 125 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 10 Jul 2026 · 2d | 121 × $29.50 | 95% | $23,595 | $13,505 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 17 Jul 2026 · 9d | 124 × $29.50 | 83% | $23,560 | $4,778 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 72 × $30.50 | 10 Jul | 2d | 19.7% | 98% | 5% | $288 | $4,320 | -$19,275 | $9,696 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 72 × $30.50 19.7% OTM over spot $25.48 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.10 mid) = $288 credit for the 2d cycle → $4,320/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $30.50) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $30.60) 98% EV / mo +$3,390 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.0 mo [0.5-2.6] median · 70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 68% without) · ~0.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $-4,542 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 3% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$7,538 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 17 Jul 2026) $34 @ 79% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 72 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.54/sh now → $1.09 mid-life (likely $0.94–$2.03) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.04/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.05/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 76 simulated challenges: the $30 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $31 (overshoots $0.89). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $30.50 is $1 below CC-SS $31.89: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.04 collected) or spot ≥ $30.60 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $30)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.42 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $31.89, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-67,938 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$67,938 − CC assignment net of premium (72 × $30.50): -$9,696 + Conservative CC premium (53 × $40): +$265 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,431 (+$58,507 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $625 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,056, the opportunity cost of earning $4,320/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.93 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$31,608, position total $955 (+$68,892 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 115 × $30 | 10 Jul | 2d | 17.7% | 96% | 7% | $1,035 | $15,525 | -$8,070 | $20,661 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 115 × $30 17.7% OTM over spot $25.48 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.17 mid) = $1,035 credit for the 2d cycle → $15,525/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $30) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $30.17) 97% EV / mo +$12,920 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.9 mo [0.4-2.4] median · 72% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 70% without) · ~1.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,040 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 4% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$11,170 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 17 Jul 2026) $33 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 115 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.50/sh now → $1.06 mid-life (likely $1.01–$2.10) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.97/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 108 simulated challenges: the $30 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $31 (overshoots $0.95). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $30 is $2 below CC-SS $31.89: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot ≥ $30.17 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $30)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.42 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $31.89, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-67,938 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$67,938 − CC assignment net of premium (115 × $30): -$20,661 + Conservative CC premium (10 × $40): +$50 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,611 (+$47,326 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $625 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,236, the opportunity cost of earning $15,525/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.93 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$55,660, position total $-23,312 (+$44,625 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 121 × $29.50 | 10 Jul | 2d | 15.8% | 95% | 5% | $1,573 | $23,595 | — | $27,305 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 121 × $29.50 15.8% OTM over spot $25.48 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.17 mid) = $1,573 credit for the 2d cycle → $23,595/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $29.50) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $29.68) 96% EV / mo +$18,884 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.9 mo [0.4-1.8] median · 70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 66% without) · ~1.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,568 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 5% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$10,961 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $34 @ 80% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 121 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.46/sh now → $1.04 mid-life (likely $1.06–$2.05) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.91/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 161 simulated challenges: the $30 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $31 (overshoots $1.05). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $29.50 is $2 below CC-SS $31.89: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.13 collected) or spot ≥ $29.68 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $30)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.42 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $31.89, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-67,938 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$67,938 − CC assignment net of premium (121 × $29.50): -$27,305 + Conservative CC premium (4 × $40): +$20 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-27,285 (+$40,652 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $625 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-27,910, the opportunity cost of earning $23,595/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.93 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$64,130, position total $-31,812 (+$36,125 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 125 × $29 | 10 Jul | 2d | 13.8% | 93% | 15% | $2,125 | $31,875 | +$8,280 | $33,958 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 × $29 13.8% OTM over spot $25.48 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.23 mid) = $2,125 credit for the 2d cycle → $31,875/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $29) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $29.23) 94% EV / mo +$23,700 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.9 mo [0.4-2.4] median · 76% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 67% without) · ~2.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $14,207 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$10,508 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 17 Jul 2026) $33 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.43/sh now → $1.01 mid-life (likely $1.06–$1.92) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.84/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 227 simulated challenges: the $29 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $30 (overshoots $0.91). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $29 is $3 below CC-SS $31.89: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $29.23 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $29)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.42 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $31.89, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-67,938 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$67,938 − CC assignment net of premium (125 × $29): -$33,958 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-33,958 (+$33,979 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $625 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-34,583, the opportunity cost of earning $31,875/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.93 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$72,000, position total $-39,702 (+$28,235 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 112 × $28 | 10 Jul | 2d | 9.9% | 86% | 29% | $3,136 | $47,040 | +$23,445 | $40,394 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 112 × $28 9.9% OTM over spot $25.48 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.34 mid) = $3,136 credit for the 2d cycle → $47,040/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $28) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $28.34) 89% EV / mo +$27,841 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.8 mo [0.4-2.1] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.1 mo) · 82% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 69% without) · ~5.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $30,007 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 16% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$7,628 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 17 Jul 2026) $32 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 112 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.36/sh now → $0.96 mid-life (likely $1.10–$1.96) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.28/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.68/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 479 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $29 (overshoots $0.94). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $28 is $4 below CC-SS $31.89: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.28 collected) or spot ≥ $28.34 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.42 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $31.89, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-67,938 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$67,938 − CC assignment net of premium (112 × $28): -$40,394 + Conservative CC premium (13 × $40): +$65 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-40,329 (+$27,608 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $625 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-40,954, the opportunity cost of earning $47,040/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.93 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$74,480, position total $-42,117 (+$25,820 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 108 × $35 | 17 Jul | 9d | 37.3% | 97% | 7% | $1,296 | $4,320 | -$19,240 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 108 × $35 37.3% OTM over spot $25.48 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.13 mid) = $1,296 credit for the 9d cycle → $4,320/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $35) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $35.13) 97% EV / mo +$3,200 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.9 mo [0.4-2.1] median · 66% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 64% without) · ~0.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $-1,284 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 4% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$21,960 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $37 @ 73% POP 64% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 108 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.04/sh now → $2.15 mid-life (likely $1.33–$2.68) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 123 simulated challenges: the $35 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 9, at $36 (overshoots $1.18). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $35 is at/above CC-SS $31.89: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.12 collected) or spot ≥ $35.13 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $35)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.42 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $31.89, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-67,938 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$67,938 − CC assignment net of premium (108 × $35): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (17 × $40): +$85 Total Position P&L @ SS: $85 (+$68,022 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $625 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-540, the opportunity cost of earning $4,320/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.93 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $32,383 (+$100,320 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 125 × $31.50 | 17 Jul | 9d | 23.6% | 91% | 20% | $3,000 | $10,000 | -$13,560 | $1,833 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 × $31.50 23.6% OTM over spot $25.48 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.32 mid) = $3,000 credit for the 9d cycle → $10,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $31.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $31.82) 92% EV / mo +$4,268 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.1 mo [0.5-2.2] median · 67% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 64% without) · ~1.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,994 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$19,913 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $34 @ 74% POP 66% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.59/sh now → $1.83 mid-life (likely $1.44–$2.51) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.24/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.59/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 430 simulated challenges: the $32 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $32 (overshoots $0.93). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $31.50 is $0 below CC-SS $31.89: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.24 collected) or spot ≥ $31.82 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $32)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.42 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $31.89, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-67,938 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$67,938 − CC assignment net of premium (125 × $31.50): -$1,833 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,833 (+$66,104 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $625 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,458, the opportunity cost of earning $10,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.93 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$39,875, position total $-7,577 (+$60,360 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 117 × $30 | 17 Jul | 9d | 17.7% | 85% | 31% | $4,680 | $15,600 | -$7,960 | $17,394 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 117 × $30 17.7% OTM over spot $25.48 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.49 mid) = $4,680 credit for the 9d cycle → $15,600/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $30) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $30.50) 87% EV / mo +$5,392 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.9 mo [0.4-2.2] median · 74% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 66% without) · ~2.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,295 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 23% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$15,243 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $32 @ 75% POP 66% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 117 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.41/sh now → $1.70 mid-life (likely $1.60–$2.58) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.30/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 689 simulated challenges: the $30 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $31 (overshoots $0.96). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $30 is $2 below CC-SS $31.89: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.40 collected) or spot ≥ $30.50 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $30)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.42 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $31.89, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-67,938 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$67,938 − CC assignment net of premium (117 × $30): -$17,394 + Conservative CC premium (8 × $40): +$40 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,354 (+$50,584 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $625 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,979, the opportunity cost of earning $15,600/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.93 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$53,001, position total $-20,663 (+$47,274 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 124 × $29.50 | 17 Jul | 9d | 15.8% | 83% | 27% | $7,068 | $23,560 | — | $22,526 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 124 × $29.50 15.8% OTM over spot $25.48 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.62 mid) = $7,068 credit for the 9d cycle → $23,560/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $29.50) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $30.12) 86% EV / mo +$10,213 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.8 mo [0.4-1.8] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.0 mo) · 78% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 68% without) · ~2.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $13,082 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 27% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$13,521 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $32 @ 75% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 124 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.35/sh now → $1.66 mid-life (likely $1.62–$2.58) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.57/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.09/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 821 simulated challenges: the $30 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $31 (overshoots $1.02). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $29.50 is $2 below CC-SS $31.89: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.57 collected) or spot ≥ $30.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $30)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.42 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $31.89, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-67,938 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$67,938 − CC assignment net of premium (124 × $29.50): -$22,526 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $40): +$5 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,521 (+$45,416 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $625 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,146, the opportunity cost of earning $23,560/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.93 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$60,264, position total $-27,961 (+$39,976 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 100 × $26 | 17 Jul | 9d | 2.0% | 58% | 90% | $14,100 | $47,000 | +$23,440 | $44,766 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 100 × $26 2.0% OTM over spot $25.48 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $1.54 mid) = $14,100 credit for the 9d cycle → $47,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26) 58% Breach risk 42% POP (stays ≤ $27.54) 71% EV / mo +$5,869 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.8 mo [0.4-1.9] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.1 mo) · 75% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 67% without) · ~13.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $22,632 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 72% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$333 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $33 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 100 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.95/sh now → $1.38 mid-life (likely $1.90–$2.67) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.41/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,163 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 9, at $27 (overshoots $0.97). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $26 is $6 below CC-SS $31.89: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.35/sh (~25% of the $1.41 collected) or spot ≥ $27.54 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.42 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $31.89, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-67,938 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$67,938 − CC assignment net of premium (100 × $26): -$44,766 + Conservative CC premium (25 × $40): +$125 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-44,641 (+$23,296 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $625 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-45,266, the opportunity cost of earning $47,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.93 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$75,200, position total $-42,777 (+$25,160 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 25 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.849 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$67,938 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $625
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $29.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.13 | 121/125 | $23,595 | $19,329 | 95% | 96% | +$18,884 | -$27,305 | 98.8% | $-27,285 (vs do-nothing $-27,910) |
| $29 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.17 | 92/125 | $23,460 | $19,466 | 93% | 94% | +$17,443 | -$24,993 | 90.5% | $-24,828 (vs do-nothing $-25,453) |
| $28.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.22 | 72/125 | $23,760 | $19,953 | 90% | 91% | +$16,038 | -$22,800 | 82.5% | $-22,535 (vs do-nothing $-23,160) |
| $28 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.28 | 56/125 | $23,520 | $19,863 | 86% | 89% | +$13,920 | -$20,197 | 73.1% | $-19,852 (vs do-nothing $-20,477) |
| $29.50 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.57 | 124/125 | $23,560 | $19,266 | 83% | 86% | +$10,213 | -$22,526 | 81.5% | $-22,521 (vs do-nothing $-23,146) |
| $27.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.43 | 37/125 | $23,865 | $20,386 | 81% | 86% | +$13,996 | -$14,640 | 53.0% | $-14,200 (vs do-nothing $-14,825) |
| $29 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.64 | 110/125 | $23,467 | $19,303 | 80% | 84% | +$8,910 | -$24,713 | 89.5% | $-24,638 (vs do-nothing $-25,263) |
| $28.50 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.74 | 96/125 | $23,680 | $19,648 | 77% | 82% | +$8,123 | -$25,408 | 92.0% | $-25,263 (vs do-nothing $-25,888) |
| $27 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.56 | 28/125 | $23,520 | $20,126 | 75% | 82% | +$12,221 | -$12,115 | 43.9% | $-11,630 (vs do-nothing $-12,255) |
| $28 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.75 | 94/125 | $23,500 | $19,487 | 74% | 79% | +$4,933 | -$29,485 | 106.7% | $-29,330 (vs do-nothing $-29,955) |
| $28 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.07 | 117/125 | $23,473 | $19,244 | 71% | 77% | +$2,571 | -$32,955 | 119.3% | $-32,915 (vs do-nothing $-33,540) |
| $27.50 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.88 | 80/125 | $23,467 | $19,585 | 70% | 77% | +$4,309 | -$28,053 | 101.6% | $-27,828 (vs do-nothing $-28,453) |
| $26.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.72 | 22/125 | $23,760 | $20,422 | 68% | 78% | +$10,714 | -$10,267 | 37.2% | $-9,752 (vs do-nothing $-10,377) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $27.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.43 | 88/125 | $23,595 | $19,638 | 68% | 76% | +$5,431 | -$26,019 | 94.2% | $-25,834 (vs do-nothing $-26,459) |
| $27 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.03 | 69/125 | $23,690 | $19,911 | 66% | 75% | +$3,773 | -$26,611 | 96.3% | $-26,331 (vs do-nothing $-26,956) |
| $27 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.38 | 91/125 | $23,546 | $19,561 | 65% | 74% | +$1,930 | -$31,911 | 115.5% | $-31,741 (vs do-nothing $-32,366) |
| $26.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.57 | 80/125 | $23,550 | $19,668 | 61% | 72% | +$1,773 | -$30,533 | 110.5% | $-30,308 (vs do-nothing $-30,933) |
| $26 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.88 | 18/125 | $23,760 | $20,459 | 60% | 74% | +$8,538 | -$9,012 | 32.6% | $-8,477 (vs do-nothing $-9,102) |
| $26 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.41 | 50/125 | $23,500 | $19,899 | 58% | 71% | +$2,934 | -$22,383 | 81.0% | $-22,008 (vs do-nothing $-22,633) |
| $26 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.75 | 72/125 | $23,625 | $19,818 | 58% | 71% | +$1,262 | -$29,784 | 107.8% | $-29,519 (vs do-nothing $-30,144) |
| $25.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.00 | 63/125 | $23,625 | $19,902 | 54% | 69% | +$1,396 | -$27,636 | 100.0% | $-27,326 (vs do-nothing $-27,951) |
| $25.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.04 | 16/125 | $24,960 | $21,678 | 52% | 70% | +$6,238 | -$8,555 | 31.0% | $-8,010 (vs do-nothing $-8,635) |
| $25 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.16 | 58/125 | $23,490 | $19,814 | 51% | 68% | +$346 | -$27,415 | 99.2% | $-27,080 (vs do-nothing $-27,705) |
| $25 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.90 | 38/125 | $24,067 | $20,578 | 49% | 67% | +$2,484 | -$18,949 | 68.6% | $-18,514 (vs do-nothing $-19,139) |
| $25 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.32 | 12/125 | $23,760 | $20,516 | 43% | 66% | +$4,910 | -$6,680 | 24.2% | $-6,115 (vs do-nothing $-6,740) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 125 contracts at the conservative CC.