125 contracts (12,500 sh) | BE SS: $39.71 | CC-SS: $33.20 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $277,625 | (ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 12500 |
| Normal income ref | $46,406/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $4,337/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-90,125 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 125 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 10 Jul 2026 · 2d | 97 × $28 | 92% | $23,280 | $12,156 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 17 Jul 2026 · 9d | 123 × $28 | 79% | $23,370 | $756 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 73 × $30.50 | 10 Jul | 2d | 23.7% | 99% | 2% | $292 | $4,380 | -$18,900 | $19,438 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 73 × $30.50 23.7% OTM over spot $24.65 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.06 mid) = $292 credit for the 2d cycle → $4,380/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $30.50) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $30.56) 99% EV / mo +$4,050 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.2 mo [0.6-2.7] median · 58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 58% without) · ~0.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $-11,878 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$7,987 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $36 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 73 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.60/sh now → $1.13 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.04/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.09/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $30.50 is $3 below CC-SS $33.20: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.04 collected) or spot ≥ $30.56 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $30)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.53 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.20, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-90,125 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$90,125 − CC assignment net of premium (73 × $30.50): -$19,438 + Conservative CC premium (52 × $40): +$260 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,178 (+$70,947 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $625 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,803, the opportunity cost of earning $4,380/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$31,974, position total $-13,619 (+$76,506 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 64 × $28 | 10 Jul | 2d | 13.6% | 92% | 16% | $1,024 | $15,360 | -$7,920 | $32,274 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 64 × $28 13.6% OTM over spot $24.65 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.20 mid) = $1,024 credit for the 2d cycle → $15,360/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $28) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $28.20) 93% EV / mo +$11,093 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.6-3.4] median · 64% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 56% without) · ~4.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,729 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,386 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $33 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 64 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.42/sh now → $1.00 mid-life (likely $1.04–$1.96) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.84/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 254 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $29 (overshoots $0.90). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $28 is $5 below CC-SS $33.20: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.16 collected) or spot ≥ $28.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.53 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.20, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-90,125 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$90,125 − CC assignment net of premium (64 × $28): -$32,274 + Conservative CC premium (61 × $40): +$305 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-31,969 (+$58,156 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $625 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-32,594, the opportunity cost of earning $15,360/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$43,264, position total $-24,864 (+$65,261 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 97 × $28 | 10 Jul | 2d | 13.6% | 92% | 8% | $1,552 | $23,280 | — | $48,915 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 97 × $28 13.6% OTM over spot $24.65 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.20 mid) = $1,552 credit for the 2d cycle → $23,280/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $28) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $28.20) 93% EV / mo +$16,813 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.2 mo [0.5-3.0] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.3 mo) · 70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 62% without) · ~4.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $17,653 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$8,163 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $33 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 97 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.42/sh now → $1.00 mid-life (likely $1.03–$1.97) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.84/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 229 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $29 (overshoots $0.95). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $28 is $5 below CC-SS $33.20: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.16 collected) or spot ≥ $28.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.53 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.20, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-90,125 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$90,125 − CC assignment net of premium (97 × $28): -$48,915 + Conservative CC premium (28 × $40): +$140 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-48,775 (+$41,350 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $625 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-49,400, the opportunity cost of earning $23,280/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$65,572, position total $-47,337 (+$42,788 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 125 × $28 | 10 Jul | 2d | 13.6% | 92% | 16% | $2,000 | $30,000 | +$6,720 | $63,035 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 × $28 13.6% OTM over spot $24.65 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.20 mid) = $2,000 credit for the 2d cycle → $30,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $28) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $28.20) 93% EV / mo +$21,667 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.5-2.8] median · 68% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without) · ~4.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $27,343 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$10,520 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $33 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.42/sh now → $1.00 mid-life (likely $1.07–$1.90) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.84/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 234 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $29 (overshoots $0.88). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $28 is $5 below CC-SS $33.20: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.16 collected) or spot ≥ $28.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.53 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.20, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-90,125 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$90,125 − CC assignment net of premium (125 × $28): -$63,035 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-63,035 (+$27,090 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $625 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-63,660, the opportunity cost of earning $30,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$84,500, position total $-66,405 (+$23,720 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 124 × $26.50 | 10 Jul | 2d | 7.5% | 80% | 41% | $3,100 | $46,500 | +$23,220 | $80,015 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 124 × $26.50 7.5% OTM over spot $24.65 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.43 mid) = $3,100 credit for the 2d cycle → $46,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26.50) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $26.93) 85% EV / mo +$12,485 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.2 mo [0.6-2.8] median · 77% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 58% without) · ~12.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $36,264 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$8,376 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $32 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 124 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.31/sh now → $0.93 mid-life (likely $1.07–$2.09) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.68/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 711 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 2, at $27 (overshoots $0.97). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $26.50 is $7 below CC-SS $33.20: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $26.93 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.53 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.20, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-90,125 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$90,125 − CC assignment net of premium (124 × $26.50): -$80,015 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $40): +$5 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-80,010 (+$10,115 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $625 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-80,635, the opportunity cost of earning $46,500/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$101,308, position total $-83,208 (+$6,917 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 87 × $32.50 | 17 Jul | 9d | 31.8% | 95% | 10% | $1,305 | $4,350 | -$19,020 | $4,809 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 87 × $32.50 31.8% OTM over spot $24.65 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.23 mid) = $1,305 credit for the 9d cycle → $4,350/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $32.50) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $32.73) 95% EV / mo +$2,747 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.2 mo [0.6-2.8] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.3 mo) · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 60% without) · ~1.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $-1,881 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$15,980 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $34 @ 73% POP 64% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 87 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.81/sh now → $1.99 mid-life (likely $1.44–$2.65) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.84/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 203 simulated challenges: the $32 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 9, at $34 (overshoots $1.12). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $32.50 is $1 below CC-SS $33.20: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $32.73 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $32)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.53 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.20, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-90,125 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$90,125 − CC assignment net of premium (87 × $32.50): -$4,809 + Conservative CC premium (38 × $40): +$190 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,619 (+$85,506 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $625 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,244, the opportunity cost of earning $4,350/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$19,749, position total $-1,464 (+$88,661 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 125 × $31 | 17 Jul | 9d | 25.8% | 92% | 17% | $2,750 | $9,167 | -$14,203 | $24,785 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 × $31 25.8% OTM over spot $24.65 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.30 mid) = $2,750 credit for the 9d cycle → $9,167/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $31) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $31.30) 93% EV / mo +$4,688 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.6-3.5] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.5 mo) · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 59% without) · ~2.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,319 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$20,382 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $33 @ 73% POP 65% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.61/sh now → $1.85 mid-life (likely $1.57–$2.70) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.63/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 393 simulated challenges: the $31 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $32 (overshoots $1.08). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $31 is $2 below CC-SS $33.20: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.22 collected) or spot ≥ $31.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $31)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.53 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.20, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-90,125 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$90,125 − CC assignment net of premium (125 × $31): -$24,785 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,785 (+$65,340 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $625 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-25,410, the opportunity cost of earning $9,167/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$46,250, position total $-28,155 (+$61,970 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 105 × $29 | 17 Jul | 9d | 17.6% | 85% | 32% | $4,620 | $15,400 | -$7,970 | $39,509 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 105 × $29 17.6% OTM over spot $24.65 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.50 mid) = $4,620 credit for the 9d cycle → $15,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $29) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $29.50) 87% EV / mo +$6,351 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.2 mo [0.5-2.5] median · 67% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 60% without) · ~3.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,534 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 26% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$12,974 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $32 @ 77% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 105 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.37/sh now → $1.68 mid-life (likely $1.62–$2.61) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.44/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.24/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 778 simulated challenges: the $29 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $30 (overshoots $1.04). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $29 is $4 below CC-SS $33.20: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.44 collected) or spot ≥ $29.50 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $29)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.53 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.20, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-90,125 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$90,125 − CC assignment net of premium (105 × $29): -$39,509 + Conservative CC premium (20 × $40): +$100 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-39,409 (+$50,716 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $625 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-40,034, the opportunity cost of earning $15,400/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$57,540, position total $-39,345 (+$50,780 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 123 × $28 | 17 Jul | 9d | 13.6% | 79% | 35% | $7,011 | $23,370 | — | $56,983 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 123 × $28 13.6% OTM over spot $24.65 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.68 mid) = $7,011 credit for the 9d cycle → $23,370/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $28) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $28.68) 83% EV / mo +$5,218 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.0 mo [0.5-2.4] median · 67% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 58% without) · ~5.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $14,068 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 35% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$12,559 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $31 @ 78% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 123 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.25/sh now → $1.59 mid-life (likely $1.65–$2.52) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.57/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.02/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,040 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $29 (overshoots $0.95). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $28 is $5 below CC-SS $33.20: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.57 collected) or spot ≥ $28.68 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.53 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.20, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-90,125 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$90,125 − CC assignment net of premium (123 × $28): -$56,983 + Conservative CC premium (2 × $40): +$10 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-56,973 (+$33,152 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $625 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-57,598, the opportunity cost of earning $23,370/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$78,105, position total $-60,000 (+$30,125 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 101 × $25 | 17 Jul | 9d | 1.4% | 57% | 93% | $14,039 | $46,797 | +$23,427 | $68,809 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 101 × $25 1.4% OTM over spot $24.65 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $1.54 mid) = $14,039 credit for the 9d cycle → $46,797/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25) 57% Breach risk 43% POP (stays ≤ $26.55) 69% EV / mo +$2,062 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.0 mo [0.5-2.8] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.2 mo) · 68% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without) · ~18.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $23,851 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 75% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$417 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $31 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 101 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.91/sh now → $1.35 mid-life (likely $1.88–$2.68) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.04/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,262 simulated challenges: the $25 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 9, at $26 (overshoots $1.02). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $25 is $8 below CC-SS $33.20: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.35/sh (~25% of the $1.39 collected) or spot ≥ $26.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $25)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.53 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.20, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-90,125 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$90,125 − CC assignment net of premium (101 × $25): -$68,809 + Conservative CC premium (24 × $40): +$120 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-68,689 (+$21,436 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $625 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-69,314, the opportunity cost of earning $46,797/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$86,153, position total $-67,938 (+$22,187 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 20 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.843 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$90,125 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $625
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $28 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.16 | 97/125 | $23,280 | $19,205 | 92% | 93% | +$16,813 | -$48,915 | 177.1% | $-48,775 (vs do-nothing $-49,400) |
| $27.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.15 | 104/125 | $23,400 | $19,260 | 89% | 91% | +$12,045 | -$57,749 | 209.0% | $-57,644 (vs do-nothing $-58,269) |
| $27 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.14 | 111/125 | $23,310 | $19,104 | 85% | 89% | +$3,874 | -$67,297 | 243.6% | $-67,227 (vs do-nothing $-67,852) |
| $26.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.25 | 62/125 | $23,250 | $19,503 | 80% | 85% | +$6,243 | -$40,007 | 144.8% | $-39,692 (vs do-nothing $-40,317) |
| $28 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.57 | 123/125 | $23,370 | $19,052 | 79% | 83% | +$5,218 | -$56,983 | 206.3% | $-56,973 (vs do-nothing $-57,598) |
| $27.50 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.66 | 106/125 | $23,320 | $19,161 | 77% | 81% | +$6,149 | -$53,454 | 193.5% | $-53,359 (vs do-nothing $-53,984) |
| $26 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.47 | 33/125 | $23,265 | $19,790 | 74% | 80% | +$9,453 | -$22,218 | 80.4% | $-21,758 (vs do-nothing $-22,383) |
| $27 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.89 | 79/125 | $23,437 | $19,531 | 73% | 80% | +$7,779 | -$41,971 | 151.9% | $-41,741 (vs do-nothing $-42,366) |
| $27.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.12 | 111/125 | $23,310 | $19,104 | 73% | 80% | +$5,763 | -$50,869 | 184.1% | $-50,799 (vs do-nothing $-51,424) |
| $27 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.17 | 106/125 | $23,254 | $19,095 | 70% | 78% | +$3,860 | -$53,348 | 193.1% | $-53,253 (vs do-nothing $-53,878) |
| $26.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.37 | 91/125 | $23,376 | $19,357 | 67% | 76% | +$4,183 | -$48,528 | 175.7% | $-48,358 (vs do-nothing $-48,983) |
| $25.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.51 | 31/125 | $23,715 | $20,259 | 66% | 78% | +$4,481 | -$22,298 | 80.7% | $-21,828 (vs do-nothing $-22,453) |
| $26 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.05 | 67/125 | $23,450 | $19,657 | 65% | 76% | +$2,321 | -$41,224 | 149.2% | $-40,934 (vs do-nothing $-41,559) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $26 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.56 | 80/125 | $23,400 | $19,485 | 64% | 74% | +$4,027 | -$45,142 | 163.4% | $-44,917 (vs do-nothing $-45,542) |
| $25.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.74 | 72/125 | $23,490 | $19,650 | 60% | 73% | +$3,551 | -$42,932 | 155.4% | $-42,667 (vs do-nothing $-43,292) |
| $25 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.67 | 24/125 | $24,120 | $20,730 | 58% | 74% | +$2,714 | -$18,079 | 65.4% | $-17,574 (vs do-nothing $-18,199) |
| $25 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.76 | 71/125 | $23,430 | $19,599 | 57% | 74% | +$1,035 | -$45,744 | 165.6% | $-45,474 (vs do-nothing $-46,099) |
| $25 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.39 | 51/125 | $23,630 | $19,987 | 57% | 69% | +$1,041 | -$34,745 | 125.8% | $-34,375 (vs do-nothing $-35,000) |
| $24.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.13 | 59/125 | $23,563 | $19,845 | 53% | 70% | +$2,452 | -$38,779 | 140.4% | $-38,449 (vs do-nothing $-39,074) |
| $24.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.94 | 17/125 | $23,970 | $20,645 | 49% | 68% | +$2,863 | -$13,197 | 47.8% | $-12,657 (vs do-nothing $-13,282) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 125 contracts at the conservative CC.