125 contracts (12,500 sh) | BE SS: $39.71 | CC-SS: $33.41 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $277,625 | (ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 12500 |
| Normal income ref | $44,000/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $4,579/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-97,625 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 125 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 8d | 125 × $27.50 | 81% | $22,031 | $1,444 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | cover hedge | 102 × $32.50 | 17 Jul | 8d | 34.7% | 96% | 8% | $1,224 | $4,590 | -$17,441 | $8,012 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 102 × $32.50 34.7% OTM over spot $24.13 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.13 mid) = $1,224 credit for the 8d cycle → $4,590/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $32.50) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $32.63) 97% EV / mo +$3,260 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.7-2.7] median · 55% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without) · ~0.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $-6,190 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 4% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$18,073 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $34 @ 71% POP 62% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 102 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.67/sh now → $1.89 mid-life (likely $1.33–$2.34) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.77/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 113 simulated challenges: the $32 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $34 (overshoots $1.01). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $32.50 is $1 below CC-SS $33.41: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.12 collected) or spot ≥ $32.63 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $32)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.42 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.41, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-97,625 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$97,625 − CC assignment net of premium (102 × $32.50): -$8,012 + Conservative CC premium (23 × $40): +$115 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,897 (+$89,728 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $625 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,522, the opportunity cost of earning $4,590/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.91 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$23,358, position total $-7,408 (+$90,217 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 125 × $29.50 | 17 Jul | 8d | 22.3% | 90% | 21% | $3,375 | $12,656 | -$9,375 | $45,444 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 × $29.50 22.3% OTM over spot $24.13 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.32 mid) = $3,375 credit for the 8d cycle → $12,656/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $29.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $29.82) 91% EV / mo +$6,273 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.8-3.6] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.8 mo) · 56% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 51% without) · ~2.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,868 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$17,029 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $31 @ 73% POP 66% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.31/sh now → $1.63 mid-life (likely $1.39–$2.36) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.27/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.36/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 408 simulated challenges: the $30 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $30 (overshoots $0.98). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $29.50 is $4 below CC-SS $33.41: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.27 collected) or spot ≥ $29.82 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $30)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.42 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.41, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-97,625 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$97,625 − CC assignment net of premium (125 × $29.50): -$45,444 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-45,444 (+$52,181 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $625 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-46,069, the opportunity cost of earning $12,656/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.91 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$64,250, position total $-48,415 (+$49,210 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 122 × $29 | 17 Jul | 8d | 20.2% | 88% | 25% | $3,904 | $14,640 | -$7,391 | $49,844 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 122 × $29 20.2% OTM over spot $24.13 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.36 mid) = $3,904 credit for the 8d cycle → $14,640/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $29) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $29.36) 90% EV / mo +$6,830 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.8-3.0] median · 56% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 51% without) · ~3.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $10,245 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 16% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$15,503 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $31 @ 73% POP 66% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 122 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.25/sh now → $1.59 mid-life (likely $1.42–$2.25) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.32/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.27/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 489 simulated challenges: the $29 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $30 (overshoots $0.90). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $29 is $4 below CC-SS $33.41: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.32 collected) or spot ≥ $29.36 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $29)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.42 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.41, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-97,625 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$97,625 − CC assignment net of premium (122 × $29): -$49,844 + Conservative CC premium (3 × $40): +$15 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-49,829 (+$47,796 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $625 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-50,454, the opportunity cost of earning $14,640/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.91 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$68,198, position total $-52,348 (+$45,277 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 125 × $27.50 | 17 Jul | 8d | 14.0% | 81% | 30% | $5,875 | $22,031 | — | $67,944 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 × $27.50 14.0% OTM over spot $24.13 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.55 mid) = $5,875 credit for the 8d cycle → $22,031/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27.50) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $28.05) 84% EV / mo +$6,421 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.8-2.7] median · 63% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without) · ~5.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $16,425 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 30% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$12,486 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $30 @ 76% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.08/sh now → $1.47 mid-life (likely $1.49–$2.30) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.47/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.00/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 897 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $28 (overshoots $0.92). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27.50 is $6 below CC-SS $33.41: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.47 collected) or spot ≥ $28.05 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.42 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.41, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-97,625 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$97,625 − CC assignment net of premium (125 × $27.50): -$67,944 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-67,944 (+$29,681 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $625 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-68,569, the opportunity cost of earning $22,031/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.91 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$86,750, position total $-70,915 (+$26,710 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 107 × $25 | 17 Jul | 8d | 3.6% | 62% | 81% | $11,770 | $44,138 | +$22,106 | $78,169 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 107 × $25 3.6% OTM over spot $24.13 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.22 mid) = $11,770 credit for the 8d cycle → $44,138/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25) 62% Breach risk 38% POP (stays ≤ $26.21) 72% EV / mo +$6,280 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.8-3.2] median · 68% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 56% without) · ~15.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $27,539 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 63% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,876 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $31 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 107 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.80/sh now → $1.28 mid-life (likely $1.67–$2.41) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,896 simulated challenges: the $25 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $26 (overshoots $0.89). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $25 is $8 below CC-SS $33.41: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.28/sh (~25% of the $1.10 collected) or spot ≥ $26.21 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $25)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.42 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.41, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-97,625 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$97,625 − CC assignment net of premium (107 × $25): -$78,169 + Conservative CC premium (18 × $40): +$90 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-78,079 (+$19,546 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $625 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-78,704, the opportunity cost of earning $44,138/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.91 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$94,267, position total $-78,342 (+$19,283 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (2 expiries scanned, 12 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.842 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$97,625 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $625
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $27.50 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.47 | 125/125 | $22,031 | $17,452 | 81% | 84% | +$6,421 | -$67,944 | 246.0% | $-67,944 (vs do-nothing $-68,569) |
| $27 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.53 | 111/125 | $22,061 | $17,622 | 78% | 82% | +$4,833 | -$65,218 | 236.1% | $-65,148 (vs do-nothing $-65,773) |
| $27 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.92 | 120/125 | $22,080 | $17,551 | 73% | 79% | +$2,939 | -$65,826 | 238.3% | $-65,801 (vs do-nothing $-66,426) |
| $26 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.75 | 79/125 | $22,219 | $18,100 | 71% | 77% | +$3,514 | -$52,579 | 190.3% | $-52,349 (vs do-nothing $-52,974) |
| $26.50 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.04 | 106/125 | $22,048 | $17,659 | 70% | 77% | +$2,392 | -$62,175 | 225.1% | $-62,080 (vs do-nothing $-62,705) |
| $26 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.17 | 95/125 | $22,230 | $17,951 | 67% | 75% | +$1,830 | -$59,238 | 214.4% | $-59,088 (vs do-nothing $-59,713) |
| $25.50 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.27 | 87/125 | $22,098 | $17,899 | 64% | 74% | +$549 | -$57,729 | 209.0% | $-57,539 (vs do-nothing $-58,164) |
| $25 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.10 | 54/125 | $22,275 | $18,406 | 62% | 72% | +$3,169 | -$39,450 | 142.8% | $-39,095 (vs do-nothing $-39,720) |
| $25 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.44 | 77/125 | $22,176 | $18,077 | 61% | 72% | +$268 | -$53,635 | 194.2% | $-53,395 (vs do-nothing $-54,020) |
| $24.50 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.61 | 69/125 | $22,218 | $18,199 | 57% | 70% | $-239 | -$50,339 | 182.2% | $-50,059 (vs do-nothing $-50,684) |
| $24 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.89 | 59/125 | $22,302 | $18,383 | 53% | 68% | +$431 | -$44,342 | 160.5% | $-44,012 (vs do-nothing $-44,637) |
| $24 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.52 | 39/125 | $22,230 | $18,511 | 52% | 68% | +$2,159 | -$30,754 | 111.3% | $-30,324 (vs do-nothing $-30,949) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 125 contracts at the conservative CC.