125 contracts (12,500 sh) | BE SS: $39.71 | CC-SS: $33.00 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $277,625 | (ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 12500 |
| Normal income ref | $45,250/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $4,378/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-78,875 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 125 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 8d | 108 × $28.50 | 77% | $22,680 | $392 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 73 × $32.50 | 17 Jul | 8d | 27.0% | 93% | 15% | $1,168 | $4,380 | -$18,300 | $2,454 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 73 × $32.50 27.0% OTM over spot $25.59 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.19 mid) = $1,168 credit for the 8d cycle → $4,380/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $32.50) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $32.69) 93% EV / mo +$1,928 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.2 mo [0.6-2.5] median · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 60% without) · ~1.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $-2,142 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$12,577 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $34 @ 73% POP 65% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 73 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.66/sh now → $1.88 mid-life (likely $1.47–$2.53) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.72/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 238 simulated challenges: the $32 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $34 (overshoots $1.06). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $32.50 is $0 below CC-SS $33.00: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.16 collected) or spot ≥ $32.69 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $32)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.20 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.00, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-78,875 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$78,875 − CC assignment net of premium (73 × $32.50): -$2,454 + Conservative CC premium (52 × $40): +$260 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,194 (+$76,681 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $625 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,819, the opportunity cost of earning $4,380/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.96 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$16,790, position total $4,386 (+$83,260 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 125 × $32 | 17 Jul | 8d | 25.0% | 92% | 17% | $2,375 | $8,906 | -$13,774 | $10,076 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 × $32 25.0% OTM over spot $25.59 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.30 mid) = $2,375 credit for the 8d cycle → $8,906/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $32) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $32.30) 93% EV / mo +$3,748 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.2 mo [0.6-2.7] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.4 mo) · 68% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 63% without) · ~1.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,777 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$20,612 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $34 @ 74% POP 65% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.60/sh now → $1.84 mid-life (likely $1.42–$2.44) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.19/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.65/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 300 simulated challenges: the $32 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $33 (overshoots $1.03). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $32 is $1 below CC-SS $33.00: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.19 collected) or spot ≥ $32.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $32)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.20 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.00, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-78,875 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$78,875 − CC assignment net of premium (125 × $32): -$10,076 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,076 (+$68,799 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $625 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,701, the opportunity cost of earning $8,906/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.96 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$34,625, position total $-13,710 (+$65,165 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 103 × $29.50 | 17 Jul | 8d | 15.3% | 83% | 36% | $4,017 | $15,064 | -$7,616 | $31,993 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 103 × $29.50 15.3% OTM over spot $25.59 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.48 mid) = $4,017 credit for the 8d cycle → $15,064/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $29.50) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $29.98) 85% EV / mo +$3,124 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.1 mo [0.4-2.3] median · 68% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 62% without) · ~3.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,512 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 25% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$12,733 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $31 @ 74% POP 66% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 103 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.30/sh now → $1.63 mid-life (likely $1.59–$2.55) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.24/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 748 simulated challenges: the $30 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $30 (overshoots $1.00). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $29.50 is $3 below CC-SS $33.00: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.39 collected) or spot ≥ $29.98 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $30)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.20 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.00, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-78,875 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$78,875 − CC assignment net of premium (103 × $29.50): -$31,993 + Conservative CC premium (22 × $40): +$110 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-31,883 (+$46,992 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $625 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-32,508, the opportunity cost of earning $15,064/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.96 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$52,221, position total $-31,196 (+$47,679 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 108 × $28.50 | 17 Jul | 8d | 11.4% | 77% | 36% | $6,048 | $22,680 | — | $42,510 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 108 × $28.50 11.4% OTM over spot $25.59 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.72 mid) = $6,048 credit for the 8d cycle → $22,680/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $28.50) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $29.22) 82% EV / mo +$3,908 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.1 mo [0.6-2.5] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.2 mo) · 70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 62% without) · ~5.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $15,399 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 36% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$10,631 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $31 @ 76% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 108 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.18/sh now → $1.54 mid-life (likely $1.61–$2.53) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.56/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.98/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,069 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $29 (overshoots $0.93). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $28.50 is $4 below CC-SS $33.00: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.56 collected) or spot ≥ $29.22 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.20 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.00, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-78,875 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$78,875 − CC assignment net of premium (108 × $28.50): -$42,510 + Conservative CC premium (17 × $40): +$85 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-42,425 (+$36,450 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $625 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-43,050, the opportunity cost of earning $22,680/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.96 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$63,720, position total $-42,719 (+$36,156 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 99 × $26 | 17 Jul | 8d | 1.6% | 57% | 91% | $12,177 | $45,664 | +$22,984 | $57,084 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 99 × $26 1.6% OTM over spot $25.59 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.44 mid) = $12,177 credit for the 8d cycle → $45,664/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26) 57% Breach risk 43% POP (stays ≤ $27.44) 70% EV / mo +$1,414 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.0 mo [0.4-2.3] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.1 mo) · 70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 61% without) · ~16.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $21,124 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 72% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,168 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $32 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 99 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.91/sh now → $1.35 mid-life (likely $1.87–$2.67) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.23/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.12/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,154 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 8, at $27 (overshoots $0.99). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $26 is $7 below CC-SS $33.00: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.31/sh (~25% of the $1.23 collected) or spot ≥ $27.44 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.20 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.00, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-78,875 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$78,875 − CC assignment net of premium (99 × $26): -$57,084 + Conservative CC premium (26 × $40): +$130 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-56,954 (+$21,921 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $625 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-57,579, the opportunity cost of earning $45,664/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.96 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$76,527, position total $-55,481 (+$23,394 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (2 expiries scanned, 12 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.852 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$78,875 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $625
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $28.50 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.56 | 108/125 | $22,680 | $18,472 | 77% | 82% | +$3,908 | -$42,510 | 153.9% | $-42,425 (vs do-nothing $-43,050) |
| $28 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.60 | 101/125 | $22,725 | $18,587 | 74% | 79% | +$1,323 | -$44,401 | 160.7% | $-44,281 (vs do-nothing $-44,906) |
| $28.50 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.95 | 120/125 | $22,800 | $18,472 | 73% | 79% | +$3,831 | -$42,553 | 154.0% | $-42,528 (vs do-nothing $-43,153) |
| $28 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.11 | 102/125 | $22,644 | $18,496 | 70% | 78% | +$3,852 | -$39,638 | 143.5% | $-39,523 (vs do-nothing $-40,148) |
| $27.50 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.74 | 82/125 | $22,755 | $18,807 | 70% | 77% | +$1,654 | -$39,000 | 141.2% | $-38,785 (vs do-nothing $-39,410) |
| $27.50 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.29 | 88/125 | $22,704 | $18,696 | 67% | 76% | +$3,877 | -$37,014 | 134.0% | $-36,829 (vs do-nothing $-37,454) |
| $27 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.91 | 67/125 | $22,864 | $19,065 | 66% | 74% | +$2,023 | -$34,077 | 123.4% | $-33,787 (vs do-nothing $-34,412) |
| $27 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.30 | 88/125 | $22,880 | $18,872 | 64% | 74% | +$1,103 | -$41,326 | 149.6% | $-41,141 (vs do-nothing $-41,766) |
| $26.50 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.50 | 76/125 | $22,800 | $18,912 | 61% | 73% | +$1,138 | -$37,970 | 137.4% | $-37,725 (vs do-nothing $-38,350) |
| $26 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.70 | 67/125 | $22,780 | $18,982 | 57% | 71% | +$882 | -$35,484 | 128.4% | $-35,194 (vs do-nothing $-35,819) |
| $26 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.23 | 50/125 | $23,062 | $19,434 | 57% | 70% | +$714 | -$28,831 | 104.4% | $-28,456 (vs do-nothing $-29,081) |
| $25.50 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.90 | 60/125 | $22,800 | $19,072 | 54% | 69% | +$417 | -$33,577 | 121.5% | $-33,252 (vs do-nothing $-33,877) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 125 contracts at the conservative CC.