125 contracts (12,500 sh) | BE SS: $39.71 | CC-SS: $31.88 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $277,625 | (ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 12500 |
| Normal income ref | $49,554/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $4,219/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-69,812 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 125 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 116 × $28.50 | 82% | $24,857 | $6,152 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 124 × $33 | 17 Jul | 7d | 30.4% | 96% | 8% | $992 | $4,251 | -$20,606 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 124 × $33 30.4% OTM over spot $25.30 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.14 mid) = $992 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,251/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $33) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $33.14) 96% EV / mo +$2,557 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.0 mo [0.5-1.9] median · 65% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 63% without) · ~0.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $-1,574 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 4% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$19,941 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $38 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 124 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.39/sh now → $1.69 mid-life (likely $1.06–$2.13) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.61/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 111 simulated challenges: the $33 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 7, at $34 (overshoots $0.92). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $33 is at/above CC-SS $31.88: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $33.14 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $33)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.21 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $31.88, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-69,812 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$69,812 − CC assignment net of premium (124 × $33): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $40): +$5 Total Position P&L @ SS: $5 (+$69,818 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $625 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-620, the opportunity cost of earning $4,251/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.97 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$23,436, position total $9,326 (+$79,139 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 125 × $30.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 20.5% | 92% | 17% | $3,125 | $13,393 | -$11,464 | $14,167 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 × $30.50 20.5% OTM over spot $25.30 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.34 mid) = $3,125 credit for the 7d cycle → $13,393/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $30.50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $30.84) 93% EV / mo +$8,686 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.1 mo [0.5-2.6] median · 72% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 66% without) · ~2.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,211 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$15,566 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $36 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.11/sh now → $1.50 mid-life (likely $1.25–$2.19) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.25/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 364 simulated challenges: the $30 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $31 (overshoots $0.95). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $30.50 is $1 below CC-SS $31.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $30.84 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $30)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.21 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $31.88, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-69,812 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$69,812 − CC assignment net of premium (125 × $30.50): -$14,167 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,167 (+$55,646 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $625 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,792, the opportunity cost of earning $13,393/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.97 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$52,750, position total $-19,993 (+$49,820 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 110 × $29.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 16.6% | 88% | 26% | $3,850 | $16,500 | -$8,357 | $22,367 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 110 × $29.50 16.6% OTM over spot $25.30 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.39 mid) = $3,850 credit for the 7d cycle → $16,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $29.50) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $29.89) 89% EV / mo +$8,996 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.0 mo [0.4-2.0] median · 72% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 65% without) · ~3.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $10,719 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 19% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$11,782 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $35 @ 83% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 110 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.01/sh now → $1.42 mid-life (likely $1.26–$2.08) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.07/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 564 simulated challenges: the $30 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $30 (overshoots $0.87). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $29.50 is $2 below CC-SS $31.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.35 collected) or spot ≥ $29.89 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $30)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.21 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $31.88, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-69,812 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$69,812 − CC assignment net of premium (110 × $29.50): -$22,367 + Conservative CC premium (15 × $40): +$75 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,292 (+$47,521 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $625 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,917, the opportunity cost of earning $16,500/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.97 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$56,320, position total $-23,488 (+$46,325 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 116 × $28.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 12.6% | 82% | 28% | $5,800 | $24,857 | — | $33,447 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 116 × $28.50 12.6% OTM over spot $25.30 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.54 mid) = $5,800 credit for the 7d cycle → $24,857/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $28.50) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $29.05) 85% EV / mo +$11,084 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.1 mo [0.5-2.4] median · 70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 59% without) · ~5.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $18,579 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 28% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$9,843 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $34 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 116 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.91/sh now → $1.35 mid-life (likely $1.32–$2.14) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.85/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 837 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $29 (overshoots $0.88). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $28.50 is $3 below CC-SS $31.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.50 collected) or spot ≥ $29.05 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.21 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $31.88, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-69,812 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$69,812 − CC assignment net of premium (116 × $28.50): -$33,447 + Conservative CC premium (9 × $40): +$45 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-33,402 (+$36,411 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $625 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-34,027, the opportunity cost of earning $24,857/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.97 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$69,252, position total $-36,450 (+$33,363 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 100 × $26 | 17 Jul | 7d | 2.7% | 60% | 84% | $11,600 | $49,714 | +$24,857 | $47,233 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 100 × $26 2.7% OTM over spot $25.30 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.23 mid) = $11,600 credit for the 7d cycle → $49,714/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26) 60% Breach risk 40% POP (stays ≤ $27.23) 72% EV / mo +$10,404 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.9 mo [0.4-2.4] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.1 mo) · 78% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 66% without) · ~13.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $23,840 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 67% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$148 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $34 @ 90% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 100 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.66/sh now → $1.17 mid-life (likely $1.58–$2.30) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.01/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,001 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $27 (overshoots $0.90). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $26 is $6 below CC-SS $31.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.29/sh (~25% of the $1.16 collected) or spot ≥ $27.23 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.21 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $31.88, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-69,812 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$69,812 − CC assignment net of premium (100 × $26): -$47,233 + Conservative CC premium (25 × $40): +$125 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-47,108 (+$22,704 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $625 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-47,733, the opportunity cost of earning $49,714/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.97 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$78,100, position total $-45,218 (+$24,595 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 20 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.849 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$69,812 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $625
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $28.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.50 | 116/125 | $24,857 | $20,735 | 82% | 85% | +$11,084 | -$33,447 | 121.1% | $-33,402 (vs do-nothing $-34,027) |
| $28 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.57 | 102/125 | $24,917 | $20,945 | 78% | 83% | +$9,188 | -$33,796 | 122.3% | $-33,681 (vs do-nothing $-34,306) |
| $27.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.71 | 82/125 | $24,951 | $21,193 | 74% | 80% | +$8,705 | -$30,121 | 109.0% | $-29,906 (vs do-nothing $-30,531) |
| $28 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.04 | 112/125 | $24,960 | $20,881 | 73% | 80% | +$6,882 | -$31,845 | 115.3% | $-31,780 (vs do-nothing $-32,405) |
| $27 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.87 | 67/125 | $24,981 | $21,384 | 70% | 78% | +$8,113 | -$26,889 | 97.3% | $-26,599 (vs do-nothing $-27,224) |
| $28 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.48 | 118/125 | $24,949 | $20,805 | 70% | 77% | +$4,296 | -$28,359 | 102.7% | $-28,324 (vs do-nothing $-28,949) |
| $27.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.15 | 101/125 | $24,889 | $20,928 | 70% | 78% | +$5,708 | -$32,657 | 118.2% | $-32,537 (vs do-nothing $-33,162) |
| $27.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.71 | 102/125 | $24,917 | $20,945 | 67% | 76% | +$4,877 | -$27,268 | 98.7% | $-27,153 (vs do-nothing $-27,778) |
| $27 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.36 | 86/125 | $25,063 | $21,262 | 66% | 76% | +$5,937 | -$30,301 | 109.7% | $-30,106 (vs do-nothing $-30,731) |
| $27 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.89 | 92/125 | $24,840 | $20,975 | 65% | 74% | +$4,603 | -$27,539 | 99.7% | $-27,374 (vs do-nothing $-27,999) |
| $26.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.39 | 84/125 | $25,020 | $21,241 | 63% | 74% | +$3,252 | -$33,544 | 121.4% | $-33,339 (vs do-nothing $-33,964) |
| $26.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.07 | 84/125 | $24,840 | $21,061 | 62% | 73% | +$4,208 | -$27,832 | 100.7% | $-27,627 (vs do-nothing $-28,252) |
| $26 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.16 | 50/125 | $24,857 | $21,442 | 60% | 72% | +$5,202 | -$23,617 | 85.5% | $-23,242 (vs do-nothing $-23,867) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $26 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.63 | 71/125 | $24,799 | $21,159 | 59% | 72% | +$3,469 | -$30,199 | 109.3% | $-29,929 (vs do-nothing $-30,554) |
| $26 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.27 | 77/125 | $24,970 | $21,266 | 59% | 72% | +$5,118 | -$27,823 | 100.7% | $-27,583 (vs do-nothing $-28,208) |
| $25.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.49 | 70/125 | $24,900 | $21,271 | 56% | 71% | +$3,637 | -$27,253 | 98.7% | $-26,978 (vs do-nothing $-27,603) |
| $25.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.85 | 63/125 | $24,975 | $21,421 | 55% | 70% | +$3,147 | -$28,560 | 103.4% | $-28,250 (vs do-nothing $-28,875) |
| $25 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.73 | 64/125 | $24,960 | $21,395 | 53% | 69% | +$3,431 | -$26,581 | 96.2% | $-26,276 (vs do-nothing $-26,901) |
| $25 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.18 | 54/125 | $25,226 | $21,768 | 52% | 69% | +$3,762 | -$25,398 | 91.9% | $-25,043 (vs do-nothing $-25,668) |
| $25 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.58 | 37/125 | $25,054 | $21,778 | 49% | 67% | +$3,225 | -$19,622 | 71.0% | $-19,182 (vs do-nothing $-19,807) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 125 contracts at the conservative CC.