125 contracts (12,500 sh) | BE SS: $39.71 | CC-SS: $31.96 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $277,625 | (ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 12500 |
| Normal income ref | $21,964/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $4,219/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-71,062 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 125 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 112 × $30 | 89% | $11,040 | $1,117 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 83 × $32.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 28.7% | 97% | 7% | $996 | $4,269 | -$6,771 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 83 × $32.50 28.7% OTM over spot $25.26 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.14 mid) = $996 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,269/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $32.50) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $32.64) 97% EV / mo +$3,463 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.1 mo [0.5-2.5] median · 70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 67% without) · ~0.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $-769 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 4% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$13,246 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $37 @ 78% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 83 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.43/sh now → $1.72 mid-life (likely $1.24–$2.25) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.60/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 112 simulated challenges: the $32 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 7, at $34 (overshoots $1.02). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $32.50 is at/above CC-SS $31.96: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.12 collected) or spot ≥ $32.64 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $32)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.21 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $31.96, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-71,062 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$71,062 − CC assignment net of premium (83 × $32.50): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (42 × $40): +$210 Total Position P&L @ SS: $210 (+$71,272 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $625 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-415, the opportunity cost of earning $4,269/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.97 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$19,505, position total $12,690 (+$83,752 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 90 × $30.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 20.7% | 91% | 19% | $1,710 | $7,329 | -$3,711 | $11,395 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 90 × $30.50 20.7% OTM over spot $25.26 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.31 mid) = $1,710 credit for the 7d cycle → $7,329/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $30.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $30.81) 92% EV / mo +$3,152 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.0 mo [0.5-2.4] median · 71% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 67% without) · ~1.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,381 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$12,288 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $35 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 90 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.20/sh now → $1.56 mid-life (likely $1.25–$2.17) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.19/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.37/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 326 simulated challenges: the $30 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $31 (overshoots $0.89). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $30.50 is $1 below CC-SS $31.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.19 collected) or spot ≥ $30.81 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $30)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.21 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $31.96, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-71,062 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$71,062 − CC assignment net of premium (90 × $30.50): -$11,395 + Conservative CC premium (35 × $40): +$175 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,220 (+$59,842 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $625 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,845, the opportunity cost of earning $7,329/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.97 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$38,520, position total $-6,360 (+$64,702 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 125 × $30.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 20.7% | 91% | 19% | $2,375 | $10,179 | -$861 | $15,826 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 × $30.50 20.7% OTM over spot $25.26 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.31 mid) = $2,375 credit for the 7d cycle → $10,179/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $30.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $30.81) 92% EV / mo +$4,377 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.2 mo [0.5-2.7] median · 70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 66% without) · ~2.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,196 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$17,067 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $35 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.20/sh now → $1.56 mid-life (likely $1.28–$2.26) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.19/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.37/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 338 simulated challenges: the $30 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $31 (overshoots $0.92). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $30.50 is $1 below CC-SS $31.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.19 collected) or spot ≥ $30.81 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $30)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.21 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $31.96, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-71,062 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$71,062 − CC assignment net of premium (125 × $30.50): -$15,826 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,826 (+$55,236 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $625 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,451, the opportunity cost of earning $10,179/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.97 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$53,500, position total $-21,515 (+$49,547 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 112 × $30 | 17 Jul | 7d | 18.8% | 89% | 14% | $2,576 | $11,040 | — | $19,332 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 112 × $30 18.8% OTM over spot $25.26 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.31 mid) = $2,576 credit for the 7d cycle → $11,040/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $30) 89% Breach risk 11% POP (stays ≤ $30.31) 90% EV / mo +$4,371 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.9 mo [0.5-2.2] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.0 mo) · 67% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 62% without) · ~2.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,902 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$14,407 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $34 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 112 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.14/sh now → $1.52 mid-life (likely $1.28–$2.28) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.23/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.29/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 409 simulated challenges: the $30 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $31 (overshoots $0.96). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $30 is $2 below CC-SS $31.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.23 collected) or spot ≥ $30.31 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $30)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.21 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $31.96, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-71,062 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$71,062 − CC assignment net of premium (112 × $30): -$19,332 + Conservative CC premium (13 × $40): +$65 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,267 (+$51,795 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $625 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,892, the opportunity cost of earning $11,040/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.97 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$53,088, position total $-21,038 (+$50,024 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 125 × $29 | 17 Jul | 7d | 14.8% | 85% | 32% | $5,125 | $21,964 | +$10,924 | $31,826 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 × $29 14.8% OTM over spot $25.26 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.44 mid) = $5,125 credit for the 7d cycle → $21,964/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $29) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $29.45) 87% EV / mo +$9,794 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.0 mo [0.5-2.6] median · 71% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 64% without) · ~3.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $18,146 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$12,872 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $35 @ 84% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.04/sh now → $1.44 mid-life (likely $1.34–$2.22) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.41/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 654 simulated challenges: the $29 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $30 (overshoots $0.88). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $29 is $3 below CC-SS $31.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.41 collected) or spot ≥ $29.45 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $29)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.21 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $31.96, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-71,062 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$71,062 − CC assignment net of premium (125 × $29): -$31,826 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-31,826 (+$39,236 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $625 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-32,451, the opportunity cost of earning $21,964/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.97 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$69,500, position total $-37,515 (+$33,547 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 33 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.849 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$71,062 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $625
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $30 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.23 | 112/125 | $11,040 | $6,961 | 89% | 90% | +$4,371 | -$19,332 | 70.0% | $-19,267 (vs do-nothing $-19,892) |
| $29.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.35 | 74/125 | $11,100 | $7,428 | 87% | 89% | +$5,458 | -$15,585 | 56.4% | $-15,330 (vs do-nothing $-15,955) |
| $32 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.67 | 115/125 | $11,007 | $6,896 | 86% | 88% | +$4,511 | -$0 | 0.0% | $7,755 (vs do-nothing +$7,130) |
| $29 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.41 | 63/125 | $11,070 | $7,516 | 85% | 87% | +$4,936 | -$16,041 | 58.1% | $-15,731 (vs do-nothing $-16,356) |
| $31.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.63 | 123/125 | $11,070 | $6,873 | 84% | 87% | +$3,068 | -$0 | 0.0% | $2,149 (vs do-nothing +$1,524) |
| $30 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.43 | 120/125 | $11,057 | $6,892 | 83% | 86% | +$1,237 | -$18,313 | 66.3% | $-18,288 (vs do-nothing $-18,913) |
| $31 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.85 | 91/125 | $11,050 | $7,196 | 83% | 86% | +$4,242 | -$966 | 3.5% | $-796 (vs do-nothing $-1,421) |
| $28.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.48 | 54/125 | $11,109 | $7,651 | 82% | 85% | +$4,416 | -$16,071 | 58.2% | $-15,716 (vs do-nothing $-16,341) |
| $30.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.74 | 104/125 | $10,994 | $7,001 | 81% | 84% | +$2,063 | -$7,448 | 27.0% | $-7,343 (vs do-nothing $-7,968) |
| $29.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.52 | 99/125 | $11,031 | $7,091 | 81% | 84% | +$1,362 | -$19,168 | 69.4% | $-19,038 (vs do-nothing $-19,663) |
| $30 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.90 | 86/125 | $11,057 | $7,256 | 79% | 83% | +$2,596 | -$9,083 | 32.9% | $-8,888 (vs do-nothing $-9,513) |
| $28 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.49 | 53/125 | $11,130 | $7,683 | 78% | 82% | +$2,801 | -$18,370 | 66.5% | $-18,010 (vs do-nothing $-18,635) |
| $29.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.14 | 68/125 | $11,074 | $7,466 | 77% | 82% | +$3,427 | -$8,950 | 32.4% | $-8,665 (vs do-nothing $-9,290) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $28.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.83 | 62/125 | $11,027 | $7,483 | 76% | 81% | +$2,506 | -$16,282 | 58.9% | $-15,967 (vs do-nothing $-16,592) |
| $29 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.12 | 69/125 | $11,040 | $7,421 | 75% | 80% | +$2,193 | -$12,669 | 45.9% | $-12,389 (vs do-nothing $-13,014) |
| $27.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.66 | 39/125 | $11,031 | $7,734 | 75% | 80% | +$3,539 | -$14,805 | 53.6% | $-14,375 (vs do-nothing $-15,000) |
| $28 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.91 | 57/125 | $11,115 | $7,625 | 73% | 79% | +$1,882 | -$17,363 | 62.9% | $-17,023 (vs do-nothing $-17,648) |
| $28.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.20 | 65/125 | $11,143 | $7,567 | 73% | 79% | +$1,666 | -$14,665 | 53.1% | $-14,365 (vs do-nothing $-14,990) |
| $27 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.86 | 30/125 | $11,057 | $7,856 | 71% | 78% | +$3,717 | -$12,288 | 44.5% | $-11,813 (vs do-nothing $-12,438) |
| $28 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.47 | 53/125 | $11,130 | $7,683 | 70% | 78% | +$2,368 | -$13,176 | 47.7% | $-12,816 (vs do-nothing $-13,441) |
| $27.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.15 | 45/125 | $11,089 | $7,728 | 70% | 78% | +$2,537 | -$14,878 | 53.9% | $-14,478 (vs do-nothing $-15,103) |
| $27.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.70 | 46/125 | $11,171 | $7,799 | 68% | 77% | +$2,576 | -$12,678 | 45.9% | $-12,283 (vs do-nothing $-12,908) |
| $27 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.87 | 42/125 | $11,220 | $7,891 | 65% | 75% | +$2,376 | -$12,962 | 46.9% | $-12,547 (vs do-nothing $-13,172) |
| $26.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.39 | 37/125 | $11,021 | $7,745 | 63% | 74% | +$1,473 | -$15,045 | 54.5% | $-14,605 (vs do-nothing $-15,230) |
| $26.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.07 | 38/125 | $11,237 | $7,951 | 62% | 74% | +$2,250 | -$12,867 | 46.6% | $-12,432 (vs do-nothing $-13,057) |
| $26 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.06 | 25/125 | $11,357 | $8,210 | 61% | 72% | +$1,766 | -$12,240 | 44.3% | $-11,740 (vs do-nothing $-12,365) |
| $26 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.46 | 36/125 | $11,263 | $7,998 | 60% | 72% | +$515 | -$16,186 | 58.6% | $-15,741 (vs do-nothing $-16,366) |
| $26 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.27 | 34/125 | $11,026 | $7,782 | 59% | 72% | +$2,389 | -$12,533 | 45.4% | $-12,078 (vs do-nothing $-12,703) |
| $25.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.50 | 31/125 | $11,071 | $7,860 | 56% | 72% | +$2,262 | -$12,264 | 44.4% | $-11,794 (vs do-nothing $-12,419) |
| $25.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.82 | 63/125 | $11,070 | $7,516 | 56% | 67% | $-10,585 | -$35,508 | 128.5% | $-35,198 (vs do-nothing $-35,823) |
| $25 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.74 | 29/125 | $11,351 | $8,161 | 53% | 70% | +$2,159 | -$12,227 | 44.3% | $-11,747 (vs do-nothing $-12,372) |
| $25 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.15 | 24/125 | $11,057 | $7,921 | 52% | 69% | +$1,607 | -$11,535 | 41.8% | $-11,030 (vs do-nothing $-11,655) |
| $25 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.55 | 17/125 | $11,293 | $8,231 | 50% | 68% | +$1,576 | -$9,190 | 33.3% | $-8,650 (vs do-nothing $-9,275) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 125 contracts at the conservative CC.