FORTRESS FIGHT: GLXY @ $25.39

BE SS: $39.71  |  CC-SS: $32.05  |  125 contracts (12,500 sh)  |  2026-07-10 02:23 |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GLXY @ $25.39   UNDERWATER $14.32 (36.0% below BE SS)

125 contracts (12,500 sh)  |  BE SS: $39.71  |  CC-SS: $32.05  |  IV: HIGH  |  Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $37.50 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $4.148/sh)
SP: $37.50 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $21.813/sh)
HP: $17.50 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $6.960/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$277,625(ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 12500
Normal income ref$45,000/mo95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost$4,219/mo
Unrealized P&L$-70,750fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$22,500/mo
HEDGE COVER
$4,219/mo
NORMAL INCOME
$45,000/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
0.6 mo to earn back $27,625
ML VELOCITY
6.2 mo to earn back $277,625
Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $32.05 (probe: $32C 14d) brings only $4,018/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.
🏦 Campaign ledger: seeded, nothing tracked yet. Open short calls and banked credits appear here from the next cycle on; CC-SS ratchets down as premium accrues.
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 49 (live) · RSI 48 · MACD bullish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 39 · %B 23 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $34.97 (+38%) · daily UBB $36.20 · 1-wk expected move ±$4 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-28: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 108 contracts at $28.50 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 81%, breach 19%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($22,500/mo); it brings $22,680/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 120 × $27/7d for $45,257/mo, but breach risk rises to 31% (+11pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 76 × $32.50/7d (96% survival, $4,234/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $33,089 (120% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $40, recoverable in 0.7 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 108 contracts realizes $-61,668 and cuts bleed by $3,645/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 125 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 (7d) · sell 108 × $28.50, 81% survival, $22,680/mo (E[net] $5,618/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.
TrackExpirySellSurvivalIncome/moE[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆17 Jul 2026 · 7d108 × $28.5081%$22,680$5,618

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 7d · E[net] $5,618/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 108 × $28.50 (primary), 81% survival, breach 19%, $22,680/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $29.50 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 86% (breach 19% → 14%) for $7,830/mo less (35% income) buys safety you do not really need here.
GLXY  spot $25.39 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsPer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
cover hedge76 × $32.5017 Jul7d28.0%96%8%$988$4,234-$18,446$0
Sell 76 × $32.50 28.0% OTM over spot $25.39 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.15 mid)
= $988 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,234/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $32.50)
96%
Breach risk
4%
POP (stays ≤ $32.65)
96%
EV / mo
+$3,216
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.9 mo [0.4-2.1] median  ·  65% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 64% without)  ·  ~1.0 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $-911
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
5%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$11,194
Free roll-up
+$1/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$38 @ 81% POP
77% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 76 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.27/sh now → $1.60 mid-life (likely $1.13–$2.21)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.47/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 136 simulated challenges: the $32 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $33 (overshoots $0.89). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (76 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$3224 Jul 202610d left+$0.63/sh+$4,789
cycle +$5,777
[+$4,332…+$8,045] · 100% credit
67%
surv 54%
+$10,714 SAFE
cap gain +$81,464
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$3424 Jul 202610d left+$0.23/sh+$1,783
cycle +$2,771
[+$938…+$4,745] · 86% credit
70%
surv 61%
+$19,449 SAFE
cap gain +$90,199
Max even-money escape in the band~$3731 Jul 202618d left+$0.26/sh+$1,942
cycle +$2,930
[+$1,040…+$5,234] · 85% credit
78%
surv 72%
+$51,482 SAFE
cap gain +$122,232
SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$3831 Jul 202618d left-$0.09/sh-$667
cycle +$321
[-$2,100…+$2,528] · 50% credit
81%
surv 77%
+$64,811 SAFE
cap gain +$135,561
budget: banked $988 debit $667 (68% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$321 cash · rolled 76 ct earn ≈ $19,191/mo while parked; 49 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$4,234/mo
vs 50% target ($22,500/mo)-81%
vs normal income ($45,000/mo)9% covered
Net income (after hedge)$436/mo
Downside budget
✓ $32.50 is at/above CC-SS $32.05: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($27,625)0.0%
… as % of ML ($277,625)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (76 ct)$-43,130
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.13 collected) or spot ≥ $32.65 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $32)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.20 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $32.17Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$32-32.65
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $32.65
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$32.50 (1.9σ)$988$5,925+$76,675+$684
+2.5%$33.31 (2.1σ)$-5,187$8,382+$79,132-$5,491
+5%$34.12 (2.4σ)$-11,362$10,840+$81,590-$11,666
SS (= V-bounce)$39.71 (3.9σ)$-53,808$27,735+$98,485-$54,112
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $32.05, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-70,750
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$70,750
− CC assignment net of premium (76 × $32.50): -$0
+ Conservative CC premium (49 × $40): +$196
Total Position P&L @ SS: $196 (+$70,946 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $500 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-304, the opportunity cost of earning $4,234/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $34.97 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$17,784, position total $13,396 (+$84,146 vs today)
🛡 safe yield125 × $30.5017 Jul7d20.1%91%19%$2,375$10,179-$12,501$17,048
Sell 125 × $30.50 20.1% OTM over spot $25.39 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.31 mid)
= $2,375 credit for the 7d cycle → $10,179/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $30.50)
91%
Breach risk
9%
POP (stays ≤ $30.81)
92%
EV / mo
+$4,455
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.1 mo [0.5-2.6] median  ·  70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 66% without)  ·  ~2.3 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $3,284
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
12%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$15,780
Free roll-up
+$1/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$35 @ 79% POP
73% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.05/sh now → $1.45 mid-life (likely $1.22–$2.11)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.19/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.26/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 362 simulated challenges: the $30 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $31 (overshoots $0.92). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (125 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$3024 Jul 202610d left+$0.57/sh+$7,180
cycle +$9,555
[+$5,747…+$10,525] · 99% credit
67%
surv 54%
-$6,955 NOT
cap gain +$63,795
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$3224 Jul 202610d left+$0.18/sh+$2,250
cycle +$4,625
[+$94…+$4,842] · 76% credit
71%
surv 61%
-$144 NOT
cap gain +$70,606
Max even-money escape in the band~$3531 Jul 202618d left+$0.13/sh+$1,563
cycle +$3,938
[-$1,013…+$4,415] · 67% credit
79%
surv 73%
+$31,045 SAFE
cap gain +$101,795
SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$10,179/mo
vs 50% target ($22,500/mo)-55%
vs normal income ($45,000/mo)23% covered
Net income (after hedge)$5,960/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $30.50 is $2 below CC-SS $32.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$17,048
… as % of IC ($27,625)61.7%
… as % of ML ($277,625)6.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.4 mo
Surgical close (125 ct)$-72,250
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.19 collected) or spot ≥ $30.81 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $30)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.20 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $30.20Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$30-30.81
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $30.81
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$30.50 (1.4σ)$2,375$-14,134+$56,616+$1,875
+2.5%$31.26 (1.6σ)$-7,156$-15,564+$55,186-$7,656
+5%$32.02 (1.8σ)$-16,687$-16,994+$53,756-$17,187
SS (= V-bounce)$39.71 (3.9σ)$-112,750$-31,403+$39,347-$113,250
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $32.05, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-70,750
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$70,750
− CC assignment net of premium (125 × $30.50): -$17,048
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,048 (+$53,702 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $500 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,548, the opportunity cost of earning $10,179/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $34.97 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$53,500, position total $-22,516 (+$48,234 vs today)
33% normal99 × $29.5017 Jul7d16.2%86%28%$3,465$14,850-$7,830$21,818
Sell 99 × $29.50 16.2% OTM over spot $25.39 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.39 mid)
= $3,465 credit for the 7d cycle → $14,850/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $29.50)
86%
Breach risk
14%
POP (stays ≤ $29.89)
88%
EV / mo
+$6,891
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.9 mo [0.4-2.2] median  ·  68% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 62% without)  ·  ~3.6 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $7,505
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
18%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$10,194
Free roll-up
+$1/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$35 @ 83% POP
80% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 99 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.95/sh now → $1.38 mid-life (likely $1.25–$2.06)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.03/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 532 simulated challenges: the $30 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $30 (overshoots $0.90). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (99 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$3024 Jul 202610d left+$0.55/sh+$5,418
cycle +$8,883
[+$3,743…+$7,144] · 97% credit
67%
surv 54%
-$18,147 NOT
cap gain +$52,603
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$3231 Jul 202618d left+$0.41/sh+$4,028
cycle +$7,493
[+$1,830…+$5,861] · 87% credit
75%
surv 68%
+$8,141 SAFE
cap gain +$78,891
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$3124 Jul 202610d left+$0.15/sh+$1,522
cycle +$4,987
[-$666…+$3,050] · 66% credit
71%
surv 61%
-$10,303 NOT
cap gain +$60,447
Max even-money escape in the band~$3431 Jul 202618d left+$0.06/sh+$636
cycle +$4,101
[-$1,963…+$2,334] · 48% credit
79%
surv 74%
+$20,686 SAFE
cap gain +$91,436
SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$3531 Jul 202618d left-$0.25/sh-$2,519
cycle +$946
[-$5,575…-$973] · 17% credit
83%
surv 80%
+$33,469 SAFE
cap gain +$104,219
budget: banked $3,465 debit $2,519 (73% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$946 cash · rolled 99 ct earn ≈ $18,566/mo while parked; 26 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$14,850/mo
vs 50% target ($22,500/mo)-34%
vs normal income ($45,000/mo)33% covered
Net income (after hedge)$10,854/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $29.50 is $3 below CC-SS $32.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$21,818
… as % of IC ($27,625)79.0%
… as % of ML ($277,625)7.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.5 mo
Surgical close (99 ct)$-56,430
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.35 collected) or spot ≥ $29.89 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $30)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.20 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $29.20Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$29-29.89
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $29.89
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$29.50 (1.1σ)$3,465$-23,565+$47,185+$3,069
+2.5%$30.24 (1.3σ)$-3,836$-23,031+$47,719-$4,232
+5%$30.98 (1.5σ)$-11,138$-22,496+$48,254-$11,534
SS (= V-bounce)$39.71 (3.9σ)$-97,614$-16,163+$54,587-$98,010
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $32.05, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-70,750
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$70,750
− CC assignment net of premium (99 × $29.50): -$21,818
+ Conservative CC premium (26 × $40): +$104
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,714 (+$49,036 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $500 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,214, the opportunity cost of earning $14,850/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $34.97 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$50,688, position total $-19,600 (+$51,150 vs today)
🎯 50% normal108 × $28.5017 Jul7d12.2%81%28%$5,292$22,680$33,089
Sell 108 × $28.50 12.2% OTM over spot $25.39 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.54 mid)
= $5,292 credit for the 7d cycle → $22,680/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $28.50)
81%
Breach risk
19%
POP (stays ≤ $29.04)
84%
EV / mo
+$7,990
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.9 mo [0.4-2.2] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.1 mo)  ·  72% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 64% without)  ·  ~4.9 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $13,589
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
28%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$8,842
Free roll-up
+$1/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$34 @ 84% POP
81% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 108 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.85/sh now → $1.31 mid-life (likely $1.26–$2.03)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.49/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.82/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 845 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $29 (overshoots $0.83). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (108 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$2824 Jul 202610d left+$0.52/sh+$5,624
cycle +$10,916
[+$3,380…+$7,263] · 97% credit
67%
surv 54%
-$26,775 NOT
cap gain +$43,975
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$3131 Jul 202618d left+$0.35/sh+$3,736
cycle +$9,028
[+$863…+$5,219] · 84% credit
75%
surv 68%
-$985 NOT
cap gain +$69,765
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$3024 Jul 202610d left+$0.13/sh+$1,383
cycle +$6,675
[-$1,388…+$2,468] · 53% credit
71%
surv 62%
-$19,275 NOT
cap gain +$51,475
Max even-money escape in the band~$3331 Jul 202618d left+$0.01/sh+$70
cycle +$5,362
[-$3,280…+$1,209] · 37% credit
80%
surv 75%
+$11,286 SAFE
cap gain +$82,036
SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$3431 Jul 202618d left-$0.30/sh-$3,263
cycle +$2,029
[-$7,192…-$2,375] · 13% credit
84%
surv 81%
+$23,891 SAFE
cap gain +$94,641
budget: banked $5,292 debit $3,263 (62% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2,029 cash · rolled 108 ct earn ≈ $18,118/mo while parked; 17 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$22,680/mo
vs 50% target ($22,500/mo)+1%
vs normal income ($45,000/mo)50% covered
Net income (after hedge)$18,607/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $28.50 is $4 below CC-SS $32.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$33,089
… as % of IC ($27,625)119.8%
… as % of ML ($277,625)11.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.7 mo
Surgical close (108 ct)$-61,668
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.49 collected) or spot ≥ $29.04 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.20 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $28.21Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$28-29.04
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $29.04
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$28.50 (≤1σ, normal week)$5,292$-32,399+$38,351+$4,860
+2.5%$29.21 (1.0σ)$-2,403$-32,524+$38,226-$2,835
+5%$29.93 (1.2σ)$-10,098$-32,649+$38,101-$10,530
SS (= V-bounce)$39.71 (3.9σ)$-115,776$-34,361+$36,389-$116,208
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $32.05, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-70,750
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$70,750
− CC assignment net of premium (108 × $28.50): -$33,089
+ Conservative CC premium (17 × $40): +$68
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-33,021 (+$37,729 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $500 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-33,521, the opportunity cost of earning $22,680/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $34.97 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$64,584, position total $-33,532 (+$37,218 vs today)
100% normal120 × $2717 Jul7d6.3%69%64%$10,560$45,257+$22,577$50,086
Sell 120 × $27 6.3% OTM over spot $25.39 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.92 mid)
= $10,560 credit for the 7d cycle → $45,257/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $27)
69%
Breach risk
31%
POP (stays ≤ $27.91)
77%
EV / mo
+$14,189
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.9 mo [0.4-2.2] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.0 mo)  ·  76% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 64% without)  ·  ~8.8 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $24,959
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
50%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$3,905
Free roll-up
+$1/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$35 @ 90% POP
89% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 120 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.70/sh now → $1.21 mid-life (likely $1.44–$2.13)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.88/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.33/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,492 simulated challenges: the $27 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $28 (overshoots $0.81). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (120 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$2724 Jul 202610d left+$0.48/sh+$5,785
cycle +$16,345
[+$2,583…+$5,323] · 94% credit
67%
surv 54%
-$37,332 NOT
cap gain +$33,418
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$2931 Jul 202618d left+$0.50/sh+$5,990
cycle +$16,550
[+$2,419…+$5,386] · 93% credit
75%
surv 67%
-$14,761 NOT
cap gain +$55,989
Max even-money escape in the band~$3031 Jul 202618d left+$0.26/sh+$3,102
cycle +$13,662
[-$1,199…+$2,254] · 57% credit
76%
surv 69%
-$12,336 NOT
cap gain +$58,414
SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$2824 Jul 202610d left+$0.09/sh+$1,092
cycle +$11,652
[-$2,963…+$290] · 28% credit
71%
surv 62%
-$30,284 NOT
cap gain +$40,466
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$3531 Jul 202618d left-$0.82/sh-$9,889
cycle +$671
[-$18,084…-$12,011]
90%
surv 89%
+$33,110 SAFE
cap gain +$103,860
budget: banked $10,560 debit $9,889 (94% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$671 cash · rolled 120 ct earn ≈ $7,626/mo while parked; 5 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$45,257/mo
vs 50% target ($22,500/mo)+101%
vs normal income ($45,000/mo)101% covered
Net income (after hedge)$41,081/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $27 is $5 below CC-SS $32.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$50,086
… as % of IC ($27,625)181.3%
… as % of ML ($277,625)18.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.1 mo
Surgical close (120 ct)$-68,340
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.22/sh (~25% of the $0.88 collected) or spot ≥ $27.91 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $27)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.20 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $26.73Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$27-27.91
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $27.91
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$27.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$10,560$-43,117+$27,633+$10,080
+2.5%$27.67 (≤1σ, normal week)$2,460$-44,045+$26,705+$1,980
+5%$28.35 (≤1σ, normal week)$-5,640$-44,973+$25,777-$6,120
SS (= V-bounce)$39.71 (3.9σ)$-141,960$-60,593+$10,157-$142,440
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $32.05, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-70,750
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$70,750
− CC assignment net of premium (120 × $27): -$50,086
+ Conservative CC premium (5 × $40): +$20
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-50,066 (+$20,684 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $500 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-50,566, the opportunity cost of earning $45,257/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $34.97 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$85,080, position total $-54,076 (+$16,674 vs today)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on GLXY are the tiebreakers.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (19 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 19 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.850 (IBKR)  |  Recovery@SS: +$70,750 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $500

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$28.507d17 Jul 2026$0.49108/125$22,680$18,60781%84%+$7,990-$33,089119.8%$-33,021 (vs do-nothing $-33,521)
$287d17 Jul 2026$0.49108/125$22,680$18,60778%82%+$5,089-$38,489139.3%$-38,421 (vs do-nothing $-38,921)
$27.507d17 Jul 2026$0.6680/125$22,629$18,79674%79%+$6,152-$31,151112.8%$-30,971 (vs do-nothing $-31,471)
$2814d24 Jul 2026$0.91116/125$22,620$18,47872%78%+$1,604-$36,468132.0%$-36,432 (vs do-nothing $-36,932)
$2821d31 Jul 2026$1.47108/125$22,680$18,60770%77%+$4,222-$27,905101.0%$-27,837 (vs do-nothing $-28,337)
$277d17 Jul 2026$0.8860/125$22,629$18,96769%77%+$7,095-$25,04390.7%$-24,783 (vs do-nothing $-25,283)
$27.5014d24 Jul 2026$1.1592/125$22,671$18,73669%77%+$3,276-$31,315113.4%$-31,183 (vs do-nothing $-31,683)
$27.5021d31 Jul 2026$1.7193/125$22,719$18,77467%76%+$4,758-$26,44895.7%$-26,320 (vs do-nothing $-26,820)
$2721d31 Jul 2026$1.8884/125$22,560$18,69364%74%+$4,287-$26,66096.5%$-26,496 (vs do-nothing $-26,996)
$26.5014d24 Jul 2026$1.3976/125$22,637$18,83862%73%+$1,216-$31,645114.6%$-31,449 (vs do-nothing $-31,949)
$26.5021d31 Jul 2026$2.0876/125$22,583$18,78462%73%+$4,021-$26,40195.6%$-26,205 (vs do-nothing $-26,705)
$267d17 Jul 2026$1.0750/125$22,929$19,35359%71%+$2,918-$24,91990.2%$-24,619 (vs do-nothing $-25,119)
$2621d31 Jul 2026$2.2870/125$22,800$19,05359%71%+$3,671-$26,41795.6%$-26,197 (vs do-nothing $-26,697)
Show 6 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$2614d24 Jul 2026$1.4772/125$22,680$18,91659%71%$-632-$33,004119.5%$-32,792 (vs do-nothing $-33,292)
$25.5021d31 Jul 2026$2.5163/125$22,590$18,90356%70%+$3,391-$25,47692.2%$-25,228 (vs do-nothing $-25,728)
$25.5014d24 Jul 2026$1.6863/125$22,680$18,99355%69%$-646-$30,705111.1%$-30,457 (vs do-nothing $-30,957)
$2521d31 Jul 2026$2.7458/125$22,703$19,05853%69%+$3,059-$25,02090.6%$-24,752 (vs do-nothing $-25,252)
$2514d24 Jul 2026$2.1549/125$22,575$19,00851%67%+$1,923-$24,02987.0%$-23,725 (vs do-nothing $-24,225)
$257d17 Jul 2026$1.5534/125$22,586$19,14748%66%+$2,294-$18,71367.7%$-18,349 (vs do-nothing $-18,849)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 125 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.0  |  2026-07-10 02:23