125 contracts (12,500 sh) | BE SS: $39.71 | CC-SS: $32.05 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $277,625 | (ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 12500 |
| Normal income ref | $45,000/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $4,219/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-70,750 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 125 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 108 × $28.50 | 81% | $22,680 | $5,618 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 76 × $32.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 28.0% | 96% | 8% | $988 | $4,234 | -$18,446 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 76 × $32.50 28.0% OTM over spot $25.39 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.15 mid) = $988 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,234/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $32.50) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $32.65) 96% EV / mo +$3,216 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.9 mo [0.4-2.1] median · 65% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 64% without) · ~1.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $-911 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 5% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$11,194 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $38 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 76 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.27/sh now → $1.60 mid-life (likely $1.13–$2.21) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.47/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 136 simulated challenges: the $32 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $33 (overshoots $0.89). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $32.50 is at/above CC-SS $32.05: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.13 collected) or spot ≥ $32.65 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $32)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.20 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $32.05, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-70,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$70,750 − CC assignment net of premium (76 × $32.50): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (49 × $40): +$196 Total Position P&L @ SS: $196 (+$70,946 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $500 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-304, the opportunity cost of earning $4,234/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.97 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$17,784, position total $13,396 (+$84,146 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 125 × $30.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 20.1% | 91% | 19% | $2,375 | $10,179 | -$12,501 | $17,048 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 × $30.50 20.1% OTM over spot $25.39 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.31 mid) = $2,375 credit for the 7d cycle → $10,179/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $30.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $30.81) 92% EV / mo +$4,455 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.1 mo [0.5-2.6] median · 70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 66% without) · ~2.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,284 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$15,780 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $35 @ 79% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.05/sh now → $1.45 mid-life (likely $1.22–$2.11) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.19/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.26/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 362 simulated challenges: the $30 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $31 (overshoots $0.92). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $30.50 is $2 below CC-SS $32.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.19 collected) or spot ≥ $30.81 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $30)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.20 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $32.05, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-70,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$70,750 − CC assignment net of premium (125 × $30.50): -$17,048 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,048 (+$53,702 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $500 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,548, the opportunity cost of earning $10,179/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.97 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$53,500, position total $-22,516 (+$48,234 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 99 × $29.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 16.2% | 86% | 28% | $3,465 | $14,850 | -$7,830 | $21,818 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 99 × $29.50 16.2% OTM over spot $25.39 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.39 mid) = $3,465 credit for the 7d cycle → $14,850/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $29.50) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $29.89) 88% EV / mo +$6,891 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.9 mo [0.4-2.2] median · 68% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 62% without) · ~3.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,505 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 18% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$10,194 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $35 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 99 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.95/sh now → $1.38 mid-life (likely $1.25–$2.06) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 532 simulated challenges: the $30 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $30 (overshoots $0.90). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $29.50 is $3 below CC-SS $32.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.35 collected) or spot ≥ $29.89 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $30)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.20 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $32.05, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-70,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$70,750 − CC assignment net of premium (99 × $29.50): -$21,818 + Conservative CC premium (26 × $40): +$104 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,714 (+$49,036 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $500 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,214, the opportunity cost of earning $14,850/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.97 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$50,688, position total $-19,600 (+$51,150 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 108 × $28.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 12.2% | 81% | 28% | $5,292 | $22,680 | — | $33,089 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 108 × $28.50 12.2% OTM over spot $25.39 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.54 mid) = $5,292 credit for the 7d cycle → $22,680/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $28.50) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $29.04) 84% EV / mo +$7,990 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.9 mo [0.4-2.2] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.1 mo) · 72% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 64% without) · ~4.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $13,589 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 28% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$8,842 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $34 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 108 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.85/sh now → $1.31 mid-life (likely $1.26–$2.03) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.49/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.82/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 845 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $29 (overshoots $0.83). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $28.50 is $4 below CC-SS $32.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.49 collected) or spot ≥ $29.04 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.20 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $32.05, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-70,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$70,750 − CC assignment net of premium (108 × $28.50): -$33,089 + Conservative CC premium (17 × $40): +$68 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-33,021 (+$37,729 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $500 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-33,521, the opportunity cost of earning $22,680/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.97 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$64,584, position total $-33,532 (+$37,218 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 120 × $27 | 17 Jul | 7d | 6.3% | 69% | 64% | $10,560 | $45,257 | +$22,577 | $50,086 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 120 × $27 6.3% OTM over spot $25.39 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.92 mid) = $10,560 credit for the 7d cycle → $45,257/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27) 69% Breach risk 31% POP (stays ≤ $27.91) 77% EV / mo +$14,189 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.9 mo [0.4-2.2] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.0 mo) · 76% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 64% without) · ~8.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $24,959 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 50% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,905 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $35 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 120 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.70/sh now → $1.21 mid-life (likely $1.44–$2.13) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.88/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.33/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,492 simulated challenges: the $27 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $28 (overshoots $0.81). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27 is $5 below CC-SS $32.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.22/sh (~25% of the $0.88 collected) or spot ≥ $27.91 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $27)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.20 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $32.05, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-70,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$70,750 − CC assignment net of premium (120 × $27): -$50,086 + Conservative CC premium (5 × $40): +$20 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-50,066 (+$20,684 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $500 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-50,566, the opportunity cost of earning $45,257/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.97 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$85,080, position total $-54,076 (+$16,674 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 19 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.850 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$70,750 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $500
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $28.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.49 | 108/125 | $22,680 | $18,607 | 81% | 84% | +$7,990 | -$33,089 | 119.8% | $-33,021 (vs do-nothing $-33,521) |
| $28 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.49 | 108/125 | $22,680 | $18,607 | 78% | 82% | +$5,089 | -$38,489 | 139.3% | $-38,421 (vs do-nothing $-38,921) |
| $27.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.66 | 80/125 | $22,629 | $18,796 | 74% | 79% | +$6,152 | -$31,151 | 112.8% | $-30,971 (vs do-nothing $-31,471) |
| $28 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.91 | 116/125 | $22,620 | $18,478 | 72% | 78% | +$1,604 | -$36,468 | 132.0% | $-36,432 (vs do-nothing $-36,932) |
| $28 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.47 | 108/125 | $22,680 | $18,607 | 70% | 77% | +$4,222 | -$27,905 | 101.0% | $-27,837 (vs do-nothing $-28,337) |
| $27 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.88 | 60/125 | $22,629 | $18,967 | 69% | 77% | +$7,095 | -$25,043 | 90.7% | $-24,783 (vs do-nothing $-25,283) |
| $27.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.15 | 92/125 | $22,671 | $18,736 | 69% | 77% | +$3,276 | -$31,315 | 113.4% | $-31,183 (vs do-nothing $-31,683) |
| $27.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.71 | 93/125 | $22,719 | $18,774 | 67% | 76% | +$4,758 | -$26,448 | 95.7% | $-26,320 (vs do-nothing $-26,820) |
| $27 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.88 | 84/125 | $22,560 | $18,693 | 64% | 74% | +$4,287 | -$26,660 | 96.5% | $-26,496 (vs do-nothing $-26,996) |
| $26.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.39 | 76/125 | $22,637 | $18,838 | 62% | 73% | +$1,216 | -$31,645 | 114.6% | $-31,449 (vs do-nothing $-31,949) |
| $26.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.08 | 76/125 | $22,583 | $18,784 | 62% | 73% | +$4,021 | -$26,401 | 95.6% | $-26,205 (vs do-nothing $-26,705) |
| $26 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.07 | 50/125 | $22,929 | $19,353 | 59% | 71% | +$2,918 | -$24,919 | 90.2% | $-24,619 (vs do-nothing $-25,119) |
| $26 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.28 | 70/125 | $22,800 | $19,053 | 59% | 71% | +$3,671 | -$26,417 | 95.6% | $-26,197 (vs do-nothing $-26,697) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $26 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.47 | 72/125 | $22,680 | $18,916 | 59% | 71% | $-632 | -$33,004 | 119.5% | $-32,792 (vs do-nothing $-33,292) |
| $25.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.51 | 63/125 | $22,590 | $18,903 | 56% | 70% | +$3,391 | -$25,476 | 92.2% | $-25,228 (vs do-nothing $-25,728) |
| $25.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.68 | 63/125 | $22,680 | $18,993 | 55% | 69% | $-646 | -$30,705 | 111.1% | $-30,457 (vs do-nothing $-30,957) |
| $25 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.74 | 58/125 | $22,703 | $19,058 | 53% | 69% | +$3,059 | -$25,020 | 90.6% | $-24,752 (vs do-nothing $-25,252) |
| $25 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.15 | 49/125 | $22,575 | $19,008 | 51% | 67% | +$1,923 | -$24,029 | 87.0% | $-23,725 (vs do-nothing $-24,225) |
| $25 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.55 | 34/125 | $22,586 | $19,147 | 48% | 66% | +$2,294 | -$18,713 | 67.7% | $-18,349 (vs do-nothing $-18,849) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 125 contracts at the conservative CC.