FORTRESS FIGHT: GLXY @ $25.29

BE SS: $39.71  |  CC-SS: $31.95  |  125 contracts (12,500 sh)  |  2026-07-10 03:38 |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GLXY @ $25.29   UNDERWATER $14.43 (36.3% below BE SS)

125 contracts (12,500 sh)  |  BE SS: $39.71  |  CC-SS: $31.95  |  IV: HIGH  |  Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $37.50 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $4.148/sh)
SP: $37.50 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $21.813/sh)
HP: $17.50 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $6.960/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$277,625(ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 12500
Normal income ref$48,482/mo95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost$4,185/mo
Unrealized P&L$-70,750fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$24,241/mo
HEDGE COVER
$4,185/mo
NORMAL INCOME
$48,482/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
0.6 mo to earn back $27,625
ML VELOCITY
5.7 mo to earn back $277,625
Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $31.95 (probe: $32C 14d) brings only $4,018/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.
🏦 Campaign ledger: seeded, nothing tracked yet. Open short calls and banked credits appear here from the next cycle on; CC-SS ratchets down as premium accrues.
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 48 (live) · RSI 48 · MACD bullish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 38 · %B 23 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $34.95 (+38%) · daily UBB $36.24 · 1-wk expected move ±$4 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-28: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 116 contracts at $28.50 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 81%, breach 19%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($24,241/mo); it brings $24,360/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 97 × $26/7d for $48,639/mo, but breach risk rises to 39% (+21pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 89 × $32.50/7d (96% survival, $4,196/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $34,355 (124% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $40, recoverable in 0.7 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 116 contracts realizes $-66,294 and cuts bleed by $3,884/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 125 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 (7d) · sell 116 × $28.50, 81% survival, $24,360/mo (E[net] $6,138/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.
TrackExpirySellSurvivalIncome/moE[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆17 Jul 2026 · 7d116 × $28.5081%$24,360$6,138

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 7d · E[net] $6,138/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 116 × $28.50 (primary), 81% survival, breach 19%, $24,360/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $29.50 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 87% (breach 19% → 13%) for $8,310/mo less (34% income) buys safety you do not really need here.
GLXY  spot $25.29 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsPer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
cover hedge89 × $32.5017 Jul7d28.5%96%9%$979$4,196-$20,164$0
Sell 89 × $32.50 28.5% OTM over spot $25.29 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.13 mid)
= $979 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,196/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $32.50)
96%
Breach risk
4%
POP (stays ≤ $32.63)
96%
EV / mo
+$2,715
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.0 mo [0.4-2.6] median  ·  66% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 64% without)  ·  ~0.8 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $-2,031
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
4%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$13,722
Free roll-up
+$1/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$37 @ 78% POP
72% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 89 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.33/sh now → $1.65 mid-life (likely $1.15–$2.12)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.54/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 135 simulated challenges: the $32 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 7, at $33 (overshoots $0.94). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (89 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$3224 Jul 202610d left+$0.84/sh+$7,445
cycle +$8,424
[+$7,881…+$11,461] · 100% credit
69%
surv 54%
+$14,351 SAFE
cap gain +$85,101
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$3424 Jul 202610d left+$0.21/sh+$1,881
cycle +$2,860
[+$1,322…+$5,440] · 86% credit
71%
surv 61%
+$21,682 SAFE
cap gain +$92,432
Max even-money escape in the band~$3731 Jul 202618d left+$0.22/sh+$1,917
cycle +$2,896
[+$1,242…+$5,904] · 84% credit
78%
surv 72%
+$53,554 SAFE
cap gain +$124,304
SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$4,196/mo
vs 50% target ($24,241/mo)-83%
vs normal income ($48,482/mo)9% covered
Net income (after hedge)$165/mo
Downside budget
✓ $32.50 is at/above CC-SS $31.95: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($27,625)0.0%
… as % of ML ($277,625)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (89 ct)$-50,552
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.11 collected) or spot ≥ $32.63 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $32)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.24 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $32.17Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$32-32.63
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $32.63
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$32.50 (2.0σ)$979$6,906+$77,656+$712
+2.5%$33.31 (2.2σ)$-6,252$8,298+$79,048-$6,519
+5%$34.12 (2.4σ)$-13,484$9,689+$80,439-$13,750
SS (= V-bounce)$39.71 (3.9σ)$-63,190$13,097+$83,847-$48,238
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $31.95, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-70,750
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$70,750
− CC assignment net of premium (89 × $32.50): -$0
+ Conservative CC premium (36 × $38): +$108
Total Position P&L @ SS: $108 (+$70,858 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $375 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-267, the opportunity cost of earning $4,196/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $34.95 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$20,826, position total $11,102 (+$81,852 vs today)
🛡 safe yield125 × $30.5017 Jul7d20.6%91%19%$2,625$11,250-$13,110$15,521
Sell 125 × $30.50 20.6% OTM over spot $25.29 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.32 mid)
= $2,625 credit for the 7d cycle → $11,250/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $30.50)
91%
Breach risk
9%
POP (stays ≤ $30.82)
92%
EV / mo
+$5,375
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.2 mo [0.5-2.8] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.1 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung  ·  70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 66% without)  ·  ~2.2 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $5,727
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
12%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$16,099
Free roll-up
+$1/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$35 @ 79% POP
73% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.12/sh now → $1.50 mid-life (likely $1.26–$2.18)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.21/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.29/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 362 simulated challenges: the $30 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $31 (overshoots $0.95). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (125 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$3024 Jul 202610d left+$0.76/sh+$9,459
cycle +$12,084
[+$9,168…+$13,674] · 100% credit
69%
surv 54%
-$3,322 NOT
cap gain +$67,428
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$3224 Jul 202610d left+$0.15/sh+$1,919
cycle +$4,544
[-$213…+$4,631] · 72% credit
71%
surv 62%
+$2,032 SAFE
cap gain +$72,782
Max even-money escape in the band~$3531 Jul 202618d left+$0.09/sh+$1,122
cycle +$3,747
[-$1,647…+$4,075] · 63% credit
79%
surv 73%
+$33,073 SAFE
cap gain +$103,823
SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$11,250/mo
vs 50% target ($24,241/mo)-54%
vs normal income ($48,482/mo)23% covered
Net income (after hedge)$7,065/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $30.50 is $1 below CC-SS $31.95: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$15,521
… as % of IC ($27,625)56.2%
… as % of ML ($277,625)5.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.3 mo
Surgical close (125 ct)$-72,125
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.21 collected) or spot ≥ $30.82 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $30)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.24 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $30.20Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$30-30.82
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $30.82
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$30.50 (1.4σ)$2,625$-12,781+$57,969+$2,250
+2.5%$31.26 (1.6σ)$-6,906$-14,220+$56,530-$7,281
+5%$32.02 (1.8σ)$-16,437$-15,659+$55,091-$16,812
SS (= V-bounce)$39.71 (3.9σ)$-112,500$-30,165+$40,585-$91,500
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $31.95, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-70,750
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$70,750
− CC assignment net of premium (125 × $30.50): -$15,521
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,521 (+$55,229 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $375 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,896, the opportunity cost of earning $11,250/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $34.95 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$53,000, position total $-21,180 (+$49,570 vs today)
33% normal107 × $29.5017 Jul7d16.7%87%27%$3,745$16,050-$8,310$22,488
Sell 107 × $29.50 16.7% OTM over spot $25.29 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.40 mid)
= $3,745 credit for the 7d cycle → $16,050/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $29.50)
87%
Breach risk
13%
POP (stays ≤ $29.89)
89%
EV / mo
+$7,707
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.9 mo [0.4-2.6] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.0 mo)  ·  71% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 64% without)  ·  ~3.4 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $9,822
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
18%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$11,487
Free roll-up
+$1/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$35 @ 83% POP
79% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 107 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.01/sh now → $1.42 mid-life (likely $1.33–$2.21)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.07/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 525 simulated challenges: the $30 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $30 (overshoots $0.93). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (107 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$3024 Jul 202610d left+$0.72/sh+$7,685
cycle +$11,430
[+$6,670…+$10,231] · 100% credit
68%
surv 54%
-$14,535 NOT
cap gain +$56,215
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$3231 Jul 202618d left+$0.51/sh+$5,481
cycle +$9,226
[+$3,135…+$7,562] · 95% credit
76%
surv 68%
+$12,074 SAFE
cap gain +$82,824
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$3124 Jul 202610d left+$0.13/sh+$1,346
cycle +$5,091
[-$1,202…+$2,949] · 57% credit
72%
surv 62%
-$7,979 NOT
cap gain +$62,771
Max even-money escape in the band~$3431 Jul 202618d left+$0.03/sh+$334
cycle +$4,079
[-$2,995…+$2,000] · 42% credit
79%
surv 74%
+$22,846 SAFE
cap gain +$93,596
SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$3531 Jul 202618d left-$0.29/sh-$3,114
cycle +$631
[-$7,224…-$1,707] · 16% credit
83%
surv 79%
+$35,318 SAFE
cap gain +$106,068
budget: banked $3,745 debit $3,114 (83% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$631 cash · rolled 107 ct earn ≈ $20,197/mo while parked; 18 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$16,050/mo
vs 50% target ($24,241/mo)-34%
vs normal income ($48,482/mo)33% covered
Net income (after hedge)$11,942/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $29.50 is $2 below CC-SS $31.95: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$22,488
… as % of IC ($27,625)81.4%
… as % of ML ($277,625)8.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.5 mo
Surgical close (107 ct)$-61,043
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.35 collected) or spot ≥ $29.89 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $30)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.24 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $29.20Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$29-29.89
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $29.89
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$29.50 (1.1σ)$3,745$-22,219+$48,531+$3,424
+2.5%$30.24 (1.3σ)$-4,146$-22,284+$48,466-$4,467
+5%$30.98 (1.5σ)$-12,038$-22,348+$48,402-$12,359
SS (= V-bounce)$39.71 (3.9σ)$-105,502$-26,191+$44,559-$87,526
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $31.95, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-70,750
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$70,750
− CC assignment net of premium (107 × $29.50): -$22,488
+ Conservative CC premium (18 × $38): +$54
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,434 (+$48,316 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $375 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,809, the opportunity cost of earning $16,050/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $34.95 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$54,570, position total $-22,696 (+$48,054 vs today)
🎯 50% normal116 × $28.5017 Jul7d12.7%81%27%$5,684$24,360$34,355
Sell 116 × $28.50 12.7% OTM over spot $25.29 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.54 mid)
= $5,684 credit for the 7d cycle → $24,360/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $28.50)
81%
Breach risk
19%
POP (stays ≤ $29.05)
85%
EV / mo
+$9,571
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.1 mo [0.4-2.6] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.0 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung  ·  70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 58% without)  ·  ~5.0 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $16,379
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
27%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$9,986
Free roll-up
+$1/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$34 @ 83% POP
80% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 116 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.91/sh now → $1.35 mid-life (likely $1.35–$2.16)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.49/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.86/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 814 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $29 (overshoots $0.89). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (116 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$2824 Jul 202610d left+$0.68/sh+$7,895
cycle +$13,579
[+$6,321…+$9,786] · 100% credit
68%
surv 54%
-$23,025 NOT
cap gain +$47,725
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$3131 Jul 202618d left+$0.44/sh+$5,131
cycle +$10,815
[+$2,064…+$6,582] · 91% credit
76%
surv 69%
+$3,024 SAFE
cap gain +$73,774
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$3024 Jul 202610d left+$0.10/sh+$1,146
cycle +$6,830
[-$2,011…+$2,204] · 49% credit
72%
surv 62%
-$16,879 NOT
cap gain +$53,871
Max even-money escape in the band~$3231 Jul 202618d left+$0.02/sh+$257
cycle +$5,941
[-$4,005…+$1,244] · 34% credit
76%
surv 71%
+$3,456 SAFE
cap gain +$74,206
SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$3431 Jul 202618d left-$0.34/sh-$3,893
cycle +$1,791
[-$8,650…-$3,289] · 10% credit
83%
surv 80%
+$25,838 SAFE
cap gain +$96,588
budget: banked $5,684 debit $3,893 (68% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,791 cash · rolled 116 ct earn ≈ $19,629/mo while parked; 9 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$24,360/mo
vs 50% target ($24,241/mo)+0%
vs normal income ($48,482/mo)50% covered
Net income (after hedge)$20,213/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $28.50 is $3 below CC-SS $31.95: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$34,355
… as % of IC ($27,625)124.4%
… as % of ML ($277,625)12.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.7 mo
Surgical close (116 ct)$-66,294
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.49 collected) or spot ≥ $29.05 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.24 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $28.21Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$28-29.05
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $29.05
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$28.50 (≤1σ, normal week)$5,684$-30,920+$39,830+$5,336
+2.5%$29.21 (1.1σ)$-2,581$-31,623+$39,127-$2,929
+5%$29.93 (1.3σ)$-10,846$-32,327+$38,423-$11,194
SS (= V-bounce)$39.71 (3.9σ)$-124,352$-43,529+$27,221-$104,864
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $31.95, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-70,750
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$70,750
− CC assignment net of premium (116 × $28.50): -$34,355
+ Conservative CC premium (9 × $38): +$27
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-34,328 (+$36,422 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $375 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-34,703, the opportunity cost of earning $24,360/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $34.95 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$69,136, position total $-37,289 (+$33,461 vs today)
100% normal97 × $2617 Jul7d2.8%61%83%$11,349$48,639+$24,279$46,382
Sell 97 × $26 2.8% OTM over spot $25.29 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.23 mid)
= $11,349 credit for the 7d cycle → $48,639/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $26)
61%
Breach risk
39%
POP (stays ≤ $27.23)
72%
EV / mo
+$10,454
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.0 mo [0.4-2.6] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.2 mo)  ·  77% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 63% without)  ·  ~14.1 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $23,651
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
66%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$64
Free roll-up
+$1/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$35 @ 92% POP
91% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 97 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.66/sh now → $1.18 mid-life (likely $1.56–$2.25)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $1.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.01/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,987 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $27 (overshoots $0.87). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (97 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$2624 Jul 202610d left+$0.59/sh+$5,729
cycle +$17,078
[+$3,638…+$4,910] · 100% credit
68%
surv 53%
-$46,000 NOT
cap gain +$24,750
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$2831 Jul 202618d left+$0.37/sh+$3,604
cycle +$14,953
[-$183…+$2,074] · 72% credit
75%
surv 68%
-$24,619 NOT
cap gain +$46,131
Max even-money escape in the band~$2931 Jul 202618d left+$0.28/sh+$2,700
cycle +$14,049
[-$1,151…+$1,150] · 52% credit
77%
surv 70%
-$20,216 NOT
cap gain +$50,534
SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$2724 Jul 202610d left+$0.04/sh+$340
cycle +$11,689
[-$3,458…-$1,183] · 12% credit
72%
surv 64%
-$38,495 NOT
cap gain +$32,255
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$3531 Jul 202618d left-$0.76/sh-$7,379
cycle +$3,970
[-$14,532…-$10,030]
92%
surv 91%
+$33,380 SAFE
cap gain +$104,130
budget: banked $11,349 debit $7,379 (65% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$3,970 cash · rolled 97 ct earn ≈ $6,724/mo while parked; 28 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$48,639/mo
vs 50% target ($24,241/mo)+101%
vs normal income ($48,482/mo)100% covered
Net income (after hedge)$44,573/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $26 is $6 below CC-SS $31.95: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$46,382
… as % of IC ($27,625)167.9%
… as % of ML ($277,625)16.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.0 mo
Surgical close (97 ct)$-55,532
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.29/sh (~25% of the $1.17 collected) or spot ≥ $27.23 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.24 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $25.74Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$26-27.23
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $27.23
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$26.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$11,349$-51,729+$19,021+$11,058
+2.5%$26.65 (≤1σ, normal week)$5,044$-51,136+$19,614+$4,753
+5%$27.30 (≤1σ, normal week)$-1,261$-50,543+$20,207-$1,552
SS (= V-bounce)$39.71 (3.9σ)$-121,638$-44,007+$26,743-$105,342
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $31.95, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-70,750
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$70,750
− CC assignment net of premium (97 × $26): -$46,382
+ Conservative CC premium (28 × $38): +$84
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-46,298 (+$24,452 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $375 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-46,673, the opportunity cost of earning $48,639/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $34.95 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$75,466, position total $-43,562 (+$27,188 vs today)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on GLXY are the tiebreakers.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (20 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 20 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.849 (IBKR)  |  Recovery@SS: +$70,750 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $375

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$28.507d17 Jul 2026$0.49116/125$24,360$20,21381%85%+$9,571-$34,355124.4%$-34,328 (vs do-nothing $-34,703)
$287d17 Jul 2026$0.55103/125$24,279$20,18878%82%+$7,608-$35,037126.8%$-34,971 (vs do-nothing $-35,346)
$27.507d17 Jul 2026$0.6489/125$24,411$20,38074%80%+$6,230-$33,924122.8%$-33,816 (vs do-nothing $-34,191)
$2814d24 Jul 2026$0.91125/125$24,375$20,19072%79%+$2,661-$38,021137.6%$-38,021 (vs do-nothing $-38,396)
$277d17 Jul 2026$0.8369/125$24,544$20,59970%77%+$6,869-$28,439102.9%$-28,272 (vs do-nothing $-28,646)
$2821d31 Jul 2026$1.58108/125$24,377$20,26570%77%+$5,749-$25,61492.7%$-25,563 (vs do-nothing $-25,938)
$27.5014d24 Jul 2026$1.1698/125$24,360$20,29069%77%+$4,517-$32,258116.8%$-32,177 (vs do-nothing $-32,552)
$27.5021d31 Jul 2026$1.67102/125$24,334$20,24868%76%+$4,544-$28,373102.7%$-28,304 (vs do-nothing $-28,679)
$2714d24 Jul 2026$1.1996/125$24,480$20,41966%75%+$1,918-$36,112130.7%$-36,025 (vs do-nothing $-36,400)
$2721d31 Jul 2026$1.8592/125$24,314$20,27065%75%+$4,289-$28,535103.3%$-28,436 (vs do-nothing $-28,811)
$26.5014d24 Jul 2026$1.3982/125$24,424$20,42363%73%+$2,152-$33,306120.6%$-33,177 (vs do-nothing $-33,552)
$26.5021d31 Jul 2026$2.1081/125$24,300$20,30362%73%+$4,577-$27,14898.3%$-27,016 (vs do-nothing $-27,391)
$267d17 Jul 2026$1.1749/125$24,570$20,71061%72%+$5,281-$23,43084.8%$-23,202 (vs do-nothing $-23,577)
Show 7 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$2614d24 Jul 2026$1.5872/125$24,377$20,41959%72%+$1,877-$31,476113.9%$-31,317 (vs do-nothing $-31,692)
$2621d31 Jul 2026$2.2576/125$24,429$20,45359%72%+$3,787-$28,133101.8%$-27,986 (vs do-nothing $-28,361)
$25.5021d31 Jul 2026$2.4769/125$24,347$20,40256%71%+$3,505-$27,47399.5%$-27,305 (vs do-nothing $-27,680)
$25.5014d24 Jul 2026$1.8163/125$24,435$20,51556%71%+$3,123-$29,242105.9%$-29,056 (vs do-nothing $-29,431)
$2521d31 Jul 2026$2.7163/125$24,390$20,47053%69%+$3,288-$26,72296.7%$-26,536 (vs do-nothing $-26,911)
$2514d24 Jul 2026$2.1553/125$24,418$20,54152%69%+$3,780-$25,44992.1%$-25,233 (vs do-nothing $-25,608)
$257d17 Jul 2026$1.6235/125$24,300$20,50050%67%+$3,869-$18,66167.6%$-18,391 (vs do-nothing $-18,766)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 125 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.0  |  2026-07-10 03:38