FORTRESS FIGHT: GLXY @ $25.26

BE SS: $39.71  |  CC-SS: $34.13  |  125 contracts (12,500 sh)  |  2026-07-10 09:43 |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GLXY @ $25.26   UNDERWATER $14.45 (36.4% below BE SS)

125 contracts (12,500 sh)  |  BE SS: $39.71  |  CC-SS: $34.13  |  IV: HIGH  |  Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $37.50 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $4.148/sh)
SP: $37.50 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $21.813/sh)
HP: $17.50 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $6.960/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$277,625(ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 12500
Normal income ref$42,321/mo95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost$4,252/mo
Unrealized P&L$-94,125fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$21,161/mo
HEDGE COVER
$4,252/mo
NORMAL INCOME
$42,321/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
0.7 mo to earn back $27,625
ML VELOCITY
6.6 mo to earn back $277,625
Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $34.13 (probe: $34C 14d) brings only $268/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.
🏦 Campaign ledger: seeded, nothing tracked yet. Open short calls and banked credits appear here from the next cycle on; CC-SS ratchets down as premium accrues.
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 48 (live) · RSI 48 · MACD bullish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 38 · %B 23 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $34.94 (+38%) · daily UBB $36.25 · 1-wk expected move ±$4 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-28: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 118 contracts at $28.50 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 82%, breach 18%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($21,161/mo); it brings $21,240/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 102 × $26/7d for $42,403/mo, but breach risk rises to 39% (+22pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 100 × $32.50/7d (96% survival, $4,286/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $61,469 (223% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $40, recoverable in 1.5 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 118 contracts realizes $-89,621 and cuts bleed by $4,014/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 125 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 (7d) · sell 118 × $28.50, 82% survival, $21,240/mo (E[net] $4,605/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.
TrackExpirySellSurvivalIncome/moE[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆17 Jul 2026 · 7d118 × $28.5082%$21,240$4,605

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 7d · E[net] $4,605/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 118 × $28.50 (primary), 82% survival, breach 18%, $21,240/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $29.50 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 88% (breach 18% → 12%) for $7,196/mo less (34% income) buys safety you do not really need here.
GLXY  spot $25.26 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsPer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
cover hedge100 × $32.5017 Jul7d28.7%96%9%$1,000$4,286-$16,954$15,293
Sell 100 × $32.50 28.7% OTM over spot $25.26 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.14 mid)
= $1,000 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,286/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $32.50)
96%
Breach risk
4%
POP (stays ≤ $32.64)
96%
EV / mo
+$2,729
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.5 mo [0.7-2.8] median  ·  60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 58% without)  ·  ~0.9 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $-3,446
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
4%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$14,533
Free roll-up
+$1/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$36 @ 75% POP
69% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 100 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.20/sh now → $1.55 mid-life (likely $1.03–$1.96)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.45/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 131 simulated challenges: the $32 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 7, at $34 (overshoots $1.02). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (100 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$3224 Jul 202610d left+$0.61/sh+$6,058
cycle +$7,058
[+$6,608…+$10,409] · 99% credit
67%
surv 54%
-$10,157 NOT
cap gain +$83,968
Max even-money escape in the band~$3631 Jul 202618d left+$0.34/sh+$3,362
cycle +$4,362
[+$3,070…+$7,890] · 91% credit
75%
surv 69%
+$21,531 SAFE
cap gain +$115,656
SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$3424 Jul 202610d left+$0.07/sh+$669
cycle +$1,669
[+$336…+$4,751] · 79% credit
71%
surv 62%
-$2,387 NOT
cap gain +$91,738
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$4,286/mo
vs 50% target ($21,161/mo)-80%
vs normal income ($42,321/mo)10% covered
Net income (after hedge)$141/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $32.50 is $2 below CC-SS $34.13: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$15,293
… as % of IC ($27,625)55.4%
… as % of ML ($277,625)5.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.4 mo
Surgical close (100 ct)$-75,700
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $32.64 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $32)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.25 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $32.17Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$32-32.64
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $32.64
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$32.50 (2.0σ)$1,000$-16,216+$77,909+$700
+2.5%$33.31 (2.2σ)$-7,125$-15,718+$78,407-$7,425
+5%$34.12 (2.5σ)$-15,250$-15,220+$78,905-$15,550
SS (= V-bounce)$39.71 (4.0σ)$-71,100$-16,074+$78,051-$54,300
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.13, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-94,125
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$94,125
− CC assignment net of premium (100 × $32.50): -$15,293
+ Conservative CC premium (25 × $38): +$75
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,218 (+$78,907 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $375 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,593, the opportunity cost of earning $4,286/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $34.94 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$23,400, position total $-14,721 (+$79,404 vs today)
🛡 safe yield125 × $30.5017 Jul7d20.7%91%18%$2,000$8,571-$12,669$43,366
Sell 125 × $30.50 20.7% OTM over spot $25.26 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.49 mid)
= $2,000 credit for the 7d cycle → $8,571/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $30.50)
91%
Breach risk
9%
POP (stays ≤ $31.00)
93%
EV / mo
+$3,446
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.7 mo [0.7-3.5] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.8 mo)  ·  63% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 59% without)  ·  ~2.4 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $2,293
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
12%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$15,605
Free roll-up
+$1/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$34 @ 76% POP
70% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.99/sh now → $1.41 mid-life (likely $1.16–$2.04)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.25/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 358 simulated challenges: the $30 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $31 (overshoots $0.93). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (125 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$3024 Jul 202610d left+$0.55/sh+$6,849
cycle +$8,849
[+$6,076…+$10,689] · 100% credit
67%
surv 54%
-$29,666 NOT
cap gain +$64,459
Max even-money escape in the band~$3431 Jul 202618d left+$0.22/sh+$2,755
cycle +$4,755
[+$502…+$6,055] · 79% credit
76%
surv 70%
+$624 SAFE
cap gain +$94,749
SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$3224 Jul 202610d left+$0.02/sh+$273
cycle +$2,273
[-$1,828…+$3,162] · 58% credit
71%
surv 62%
-$23,083 NOT
cap gain +$71,042
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$8,571/mo
vs 50% target ($21,161/mo)-59%
vs normal income ($42,321/mo)20% covered
Net income (after hedge)$4,319/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $30.50 is $4 below CC-SS $34.13: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$43,366
… as % of IC ($27,625)157.0%
… as % of ML ($277,625)15.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.0 mo
Surgical close (125 ct)$-98,312
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.16 collected) or spot ≥ $31.00 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $30)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.25 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $30.20Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$30-31.00
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $31.00
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$30.50 (1.5σ)$2,000$-36,516+$57,609+$1,625
+2.5%$31.26 (1.7σ)$-7,531$-37,955+$56,170-$7,906
+5%$32.02 (1.9σ)$-17,062$-39,394+$54,731-$17,437
SS (= V-bounce)$39.71 (4.0σ)$-113,125$-53,899+$40,226-$92,125
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.13, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-94,125
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$94,125
− CC assignment net of premium (125 × $30.50): -$43,366
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-43,366 (+$50,759 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $375 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-43,741, the opportunity cost of earning $8,571/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $34.94 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$53,500, position total $-44,896 (+$49,229 vs today)
33% normal113 × $29.5017 Jul7d16.8%88%26%$3,277$14,044-$7,196$49,034
Sell 113 × $29.50 16.8% OTM over spot $25.26 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.34 mid)
= $3,277 credit for the 7d cycle → $14,044/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $29.50)
88%
Breach risk
12%
POP (stays ≤ $29.84)
89%
EV / mo
+$6,448
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.3 mo [0.7-2.8] median  ·  58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 52% without)  ·  ~3.8 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $10,378
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
18%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$11,847
Free roll-up
+$1/wk
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$32 @ 78% POP
72% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 113 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.89/sh now → $1.34 mid-life (likely $1.24–$2.00)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.29/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.05/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 545 simulated challenges: the $30 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $30 (overshoots $0.88). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (113 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$3024 Jul 202610d left+$0.52/sh+$5,876
cycle +$9,153
[+$4,280…+$8,020] · 98% credit
67%
surv 54%
-$39,939 NOT
cap gain +$54,186
Max even-money escape in the band~$3331 Jul 202618d left+$0.17/sh+$1,873
cycle +$5,150
[-$858…+$3,808] · 63% credit
76%
surv 71%
-$9,558 NOT
cap gain +$84,567
SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$3124 Jul 202610d left+$0.00/sh+$4
cycle +$3,281
[-$2,496…+$1,724] · 44% credit
71%
surv 63%
-$32,651 NOT
cap gain +$61,474
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$3224 Jul 202610d left-$0.28/sh-$3,143
cycle +$134
[-$6,106…-$1,901] · 14% credit
78%
surv 72%
-$19,880 NOT
cap gain +$74,245
budget: banked $3,277 debit $3,143 (96% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$134 cash · rolled 113 ct earn ≈ $35,943/mo while parked; 12 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$14,044/mo
vs 50% target ($21,161/mo)-34%
vs normal income ($42,321/mo)33% covered
Net income (after hedge)$9,843/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $29.50 is $5 below CC-SS $34.13: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$49,034
… as % of IC ($27,625)177.5%
… as % of ML ($277,625)17.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.2 mo
Surgical close (113 ct)$-85,710
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.29 collected) or spot ≥ $29.84 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $30)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.25 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $29.20Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$29-29.84
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $29.84
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$29.50 (1.2σ)$3,277$-45,815+$48,310+$2,938
+2.5%$30.24 (1.4σ)$-5,057$-46,322+$47,803-$5,396
+5%$30.98 (1.6σ)$-13,391$-46,829+$47,296-$13,730
SS (= V-bounce)$39.71 (4.0σ)$-112,096$-54,886+$39,239-$93,112
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.13, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-94,125
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$94,125
− CC assignment net of premium (113 × $29.50): -$49,034
+ Conservative CC premium (12 × $38): +$36
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-48,998 (+$45,127 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $375 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-49,373, the opportunity cost of earning $14,044/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $34.94 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$58,195, position total $-49,555 (+$44,570 vs today)
🎯 50% normal118 × $28.5017 Jul7d12.8%82%26%$4,956$21,240$61,469
Sell 118 × $28.50 12.8% OTM over spot $25.26 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.48 mid)
= $4,956 credit for the 7d cycle → $21,240/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $28.50)
82%
Breach risk
18%
POP (stays ≤ $28.98)
85%
EV / mo
+$8,161
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.6 mo [0.7-3.2] median  ·  64% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 58% without)  ·  ~5.8 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $20,020
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
26%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$10,030
Free roll-up
+$0/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$34 @ 82% POP
79% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 118 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.80/sh now → $1.27 mid-life (likely $1.30–$2.04)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.42/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.85/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 777 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $29 (overshoots $0.88). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (118 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$2824 Jul 202610d left+$0.49/sh+$5,815
cycle +$10,771
[+$3,802…+$7,238] · 99% credit
67%
surv 54%
-$48,949 NOT
cap gain +$45,176
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$3131 Jul 202618d left+$0.55/sh+$6,529
cycle +$11,485
[+$4,014…+$7,694] · 98% credit
75%
surv 67%
-$24,462 NOT
cap gain +$69,663
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$2924 Jul 202610d left+$0.38/sh+$4,436
cycle +$9,392
[+$2,135…+$5,595] · 93% credit
67%
surv 55%
-$47,780 NOT
cap gain +$46,345
Max even-money escape in the band~$3231 Jul 202618d left+$0.11/sh+$1,337
cycle +$6,293
[-$2,231…+$1,996] · 45% credit
77%
surv 71%
-$19,042 NOT
cap gain +$75,083
SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$3431 Jul 202618d left-$0.38/sh-$4,528
cycle +$428
[-$9,441…-$4,177] · 7% credit
82%
surv 79%
-$3,682 NOT
cap gain +$90,443
budget: banked $4,956 debit $4,528 (91% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$428 cash · rolled 118 ct earn ≈ $17,431/mo while parked; 7 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$21,240/mo
vs 50% target ($21,161/mo)+0%
vs normal income ($42,321/mo)50% covered
Net income (after hedge)$17,018/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $28.50 is $6 below CC-SS $34.13: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$61,469
… as % of IC ($27,625)222.5%
… as % of ML ($277,625)22.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.5 mo
Surgical close (118 ct)$-89,621
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.42 collected) or spot ≥ $28.98 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.25 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $28.21Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$28-28.98
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $28.98
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$28.50 (≤1σ, normal week)$4,956$-54,764+$39,361+$4,602
+2.5%$29.21 (1.1σ)$-3,451$-55,610+$38,515-$3,805
+5%$29.93 (1.3σ)$-11,859$-56,456+$37,669-$12,213
SS (= V-bounce)$39.71 (4.0σ)$-127,322$-69,272+$24,853-$107,498
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.13, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-94,125
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$94,125
− CC assignment net of premium (118 × $28.50): -$61,469
+ Conservative CC premium (7 × $38): +$21
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-61,448 (+$32,677 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $375 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-61,823, the opportunity cost of earning $21,240/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $34.94 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$71,036, position total $-62,411 (+$31,714 vs today)
100% normal102 × $2617 Jul7d2.9%61%83%$9,894$42,403+$21,163$73,024
Sell 102 × $26 2.9% OTM over spot $25.26 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.08 mid)
= $9,894 credit for the 7d cycle → $42,403/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $26)
61%
Breach risk
39%
POP (stays ≤ $27.08)
71%
EV / mo
+$3,049
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.2 mo [0.6-2.8] median  ·  64% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 52% without)  ·  ~18.2 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $26,461
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
64%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,388
Free roll-up
+$0/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$34 @ 90% POP
89% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 102 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.56/sh now → $1.11 mid-life (likely $1.46–$2.15)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.97/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.14/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,928 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $27 (overshoots $0.89). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (102 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$2624 Jul 202610d left+$0.43/sh+$4,362
cycle +$14,256
[+$1,603…+$3,345] · 94% credit
66%
surv 53%
-$71,947 NOT
cap gain +$22,178
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$2831 Jul 202618d left+$0.39/sh+$3,965
cycle +$13,859
[+$492…+$2,661] · 81% credit
75%
surv 68%
-$48,572 NOT
cap gain +$45,553
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$2624 Jul 202610d left+$0.31/sh+$3,202
cycle +$13,096
[+$138…+$2,045] · 77% credit
67%
surv 56%
-$70,560 NOT
cap gain +$23,565
Max even-money escape in the band~$2931 Jul 202618d left+$0.07/sh+$758
cycle +$10,652
[-$3,874…-$918] · 16% credit
76%
surv 71%
-$46,472 NOT
cap gain +$47,653
SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$3431 Jul 202618d left-$0.78/sh-$7,910
cycle +$1,984
[-$15,752…-$10,623]
90%
surv 89%
-$2,078 NOT
cap gain +$92,047
budget: banked $9,894 debit $7,910 (80% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,984 cash · rolled 102 ct earn ≈ $5,621/mo while parked; 23 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$42,403/mo
vs 50% target ($21,161/mo)+100%
vs normal income ($42,321/mo)100% covered
Net income (after hedge)$38,249/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $26 is $8 below CC-SS $34.13: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$73,024
… as % of IC ($27,625)264.3%
… as % of ML ($277,625)26.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.7 mo
Surgical close (102 ct)$-77,928
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.24/sh (~25% of the $0.97 collected) or spot ≥ $27.08 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.25 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $25.74Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$26-27.08
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $27.08
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$26.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$9,894$-76,309+$17,816+$9,588
+2.5%$26.65 (≤1σ, normal week)$3,264$-76,041+$18,084+$2,958
+5%$27.30 (≤1σ, normal week)$-3,366$-75,772+$18,352-$3,672
SS (= V-bounce)$39.71 (4.0σ)$-129,948$-74,586+$19,539-$112,812
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.13, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-94,125
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$94,125
− CC assignment net of premium (102 × $26): -$73,024
+ Conservative CC premium (23 × $38): +$69
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-72,955 (+$21,170 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $375 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-73,330, the opportunity cost of earning $42,403/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $34.94 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$81,294, position total $-72,621 (+$21,504 vs today)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on GLXY are the tiebreakers.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (21 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 21 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.849 (IBKR)  |  Recovery@SS: +$94,125 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $375

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$28.507d17 Jul 2026$0.42118/125$21,240$17,01882%85%+$8,161-$61,469222.5%$-61,448 (vs do-nothing $-61,823)
$287d17 Jul 2026$0.45110/125$21,214$17,02679%83%+$5,589-$62,472226.1%$-62,427 (vs do-nothing $-62,802)
$27.507d17 Jul 2026$0.5492/125$21,291$17,18175%80%+$4,597-$56,021202.8%$-55,922 (vs do-nothing $-56,297)
$2814d24 Jul 2026$0.91109/125$21,255$17,07173%80%+$4,506-$56,890205.9%$-56,842 (vs do-nothing $-57,217)
$28.5021d31 Jul 2026$1.20124/125$21,257$17,00973%79%+$3,441-$54,923198.8%$-54,920 (vs do-nothing $-55,295)
$277d17 Jul 2026$0.6675/125$21,214$17,17671%78%+$3,915-$48,519175.6%$-48,369 (vs do-nothing $-48,744)
$2821d31 Jul 2026$1.28116/125$21,211$16,99870%77%+$2,287-$56,251203.6%$-56,224 (vs do-nothing $-56,599)
$27.5014d24 Jul 2026$1.0694/125$21,351$17,23270%78%+$4,286-$52,351189.5%$-52,258 (vs do-nothing $-52,633)
$27.5021d31 Jul 2026$1.6193/125$21,390$17,27568%76%+$4,215-$46,679169.0%$-46,583 (vs do-nothing $-46,958)
$2714d24 Jul 2026$1.0396/125$21,189$17,06167%75%+$697-$58,553212.0%$-58,466 (vs do-nothing $-58,841)
$2721d31 Jul 2026$1.7585/125$21,250$17,16965%75%+$3,538-$45,724165.5%$-45,604 (vs do-nothing $-45,979)
$26.5014d24 Jul 2026$1.1983/125$21,165$17,09363%74%+$439-$53,446193.5%$-53,320 (vs do-nothing $-53,695)
$26.5021d31 Jul 2026$1.9576/125$21,171$17,12962%73%+$3,362-$43,162156.2%$-43,015 (vs do-nothing $-43,390)
Show 8 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$267d17 Jul 2026$0.9751/125$21,201$17,26661%71%+$1,524-$36,512132.2%$-36,290 (vs do-nothing $-36,665)
$2614d24 Jul 2026$1.1884/125$21,240$17,16360%71%$-3,170-$58,374211.3%$-58,251 (vs do-nothing $-58,626)
$2621d31 Jul 2026$2.1370/125$21,300$17,28360%72%+$2,914-$41,995152.0%$-41,830 (vs do-nothing $-42,205)
$25.5021d31 Jul 2026$2.3763/125$21,330$17,34357%74%+$2,846-$39,433142.7%$-39,247 (vs do-nothing $-39,622)
$25.5014d24 Jul 2026$1.5863/125$21,330$17,34356%70%+$139-$44,410160.8%$-44,224 (vs do-nothing $-44,599)
$2521d31 Jul 2026$2.5858/125$21,377$17,41253%69%+$2,433-$37,986137.5%$-37,785 (vs do-nothing $-38,160)
$2514d24 Jul 2026$1.8255/125$21,450$17,49852%68%+$154-$40,201145.5%$-39,991 (vs do-nothing $-40,366)
$257d17 Jul 2026$1.4136/125$21,754$17,88350%66%+$994-$27,789100.6%$-27,522 (vs do-nothing $-27,897)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 125 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.0  |  2026-07-10 09:43