125 contracts (12,500 sh) | BE SS: $39.71 | CC-SS: $33.81 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $277,625 | (ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 12500 |
| Normal income ref | $42,321/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $4,252/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-94,125 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 125 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 118 × $28.50 | 82% | $21,240 | $4,265 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 100 × $32.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 28.4% | 96% | 9% | $1,000 | $4,286 | -$16,954 | $12,083 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 100 × $32.50 28.4% OTM over spot $25.32 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.14 mid) = $1,000 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,286/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $32.50) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $32.64) 96% EV / mo +$2,650 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.6-2.9] median · 61% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 60% without) · ~1.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $-3,113 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 4% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$14,185 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $36 @ 75% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 100 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.15/sh now → $1.52 mid-life (likely $1.05–$1.99) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.42/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 134 simulated challenges: the $32 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 7, at $34 (overshoots $1.03). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $32.50 is $1 below CC-SS $33.81: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $32.64 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $32)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.24 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.81, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-94,125 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$90,082 − CC assignment net of premium (100 × $32.50): -$12,083 + Conservative CC premium (25 × $38): +$75 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,051 (+$78,074 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,668 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,383, the opportunity cost of earning $4,286/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.94 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$23,400, position total $-15,358 (+$78,767 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 125 × $30.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 20.5% | 91% | 18% | $2,000 | $8,571 | -$12,669 | $39,353 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 × $30.50 20.5% OTM over spot $25.32 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.49 mid) = $2,000 credit for the 7d cycle → $8,571/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $30.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $31.00) 93% EV / mo +$3,210 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.7-3.1] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.7 mo) · 63% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 60% without) · ~2.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,102 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$15,212 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $34 @ 76% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.95/sh now → $1.38 mid-life (likely $1.15–$2.04) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.22/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 366 simulated challenges: the $30 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $31 (overshoots $0.96). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $30.50 is $3 below CC-SS $33.81: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.16 collected) or spot ≥ $31.00 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $30)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.24 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.81, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-94,125 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$90,082 − CC assignment net of premium (125 × $30.50): -$39,353 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-43,397 (+$50,728 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,668 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-39,728, the opportunity cost of earning $8,571/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.94 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$53,500, position total $-45,533 (+$48,592 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 113 × $29.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 16.5% | 87% | 26% | $3,277 | $14,044 | -$7,196 | $45,406 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 113 × $29.50 16.5% OTM over spot $25.32 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.34 mid) = $3,277 credit for the 7d cycle → $14,044/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $29.50) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $29.84) 89% EV / mo +$6,120 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.2 mo [0.7-2.8] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.3 mo) · 58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 52% without) · ~3.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,957 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 19% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$11,509 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $32 @ 78% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 113 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.85/sh now → $1.31 mid-life (likely $1.23–$1.97) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.29/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.02/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 576 simulated challenges: the $30 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $30 (overshoots $0.86). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $29.50 is $4 below CC-SS $33.81: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.29 collected) or spot ≥ $29.84 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $30)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.24 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.81, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-94,125 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$90,082 − CC assignment net of premium (113 × $29.50): -$45,406 + Conservative CC premium (12 × $38): +$36 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-49,414 (+$44,711 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,668 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-45,745, the opportunity cost of earning $14,044/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.94 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$58,195, position total $-50,192 (+$43,933 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 118 × $28.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 12.6% | 82% | 27% | $4,956 | $21,240 | — | $57,682 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 118 × $28.50 12.6% OTM over spot $25.32 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.48 mid) = $4,956 credit for the 7d cycle → $21,240/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $28.50) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $28.98) 85% EV / mo +$7,638 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.7-3.3] median · 63% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 58% without) · ~5.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $21,671 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 27% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$9,696 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $34 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 118 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.76/sh now → $1.24 mid-life (likely $1.27–$2.00) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.42/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.82/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 811 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $29 (overshoots $0.87). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $28.50 is $5 below CC-SS $33.81: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.42 collected) or spot ≥ $28.98 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.24 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.81, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-94,125 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$90,082 − CC assignment net of premium (118 × $28.50): -$57,682 + Conservative CC premium (7 × $38): +$21 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-61,704 (+$32,421 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,668 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-58,036, the opportunity cost of earning $21,240/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.94 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$71,036, position total $-63,048 (+$31,077 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 102 × $26 | 17 Jul | 7d | 2.7% | 60% | 84% | $9,894 | $42,403 | +$21,163 | $69,750 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 102 × $26 2.7% OTM over spot $25.32 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.08 mid) = $9,894 credit for the 7d cycle → $42,403/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26) 60% Breach risk 40% POP (stays ≤ $27.08) 71% EV / mo +$1,913 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.2 mo [0.6-2.8] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.3 mo) · 63% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 52% without) · ~19.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $26,461 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 65% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,137 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $34 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 102 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.53/sh now → $1.08 mid-life (likely $1.43–$2.12) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.97/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.11/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,961 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $27 (overshoots $0.91). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $26 is $8 below CC-SS $33.81: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.24/sh (~25% of the $0.97 collected) or spot ≥ $27.08 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $36.24 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.81, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-94,125 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$90,082 − CC assignment net of premium (102 × $26): -$69,750 + Conservative CC premium (23 × $38): +$69 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-73,725 (+$20,400 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,668 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-70,056, the opportunity cost of earning $42,403/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.94 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$81,294, position total $-73,258 (+$20,867 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 21 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.849 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$90,082 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,668
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $28.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.42 | 118/125 | $21,240 | $17,018 | 82% | 85% | +$7,638 | -$57,682 | 208.8% | $-61,704 (vs do-nothing $-58,036) |
| $28 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.45 | 110/125 | $21,214 | $17,026 | 78% | 82% | +$4,010 | -$58,941 | 213.4% | $-62,939 (vs do-nothing $-59,271) |
| $27.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.54 | 92/125 | $21,291 | $17,181 | 74% | 79% | +$2,826 | -$53,068 | 192.1% | $-57,012 (vs do-nothing $-53,344) |
| $28 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.91 | 109/125 | $21,255 | $17,071 | 73% | 79% | +$4,088 | -$53,391 | 193.3% | $-57,386 (vs do-nothing $-53,718) |
| $28.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.20 | 124/125 | $21,257 | $17,009 | 73% | 79% | +$3,097 | -$50,943 | 184.4% | $-54,983 (vs do-nothing $-51,315) |
| $28 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.28 | 116/125 | $21,211 | $16,998 | 70% | 77% | +$1,934 | -$52,528 | 190.1% | $-56,544 (vs do-nothing $-52,876) |
| $27 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.66 | 75/125 | $21,214 | $17,176 | 70% | 76% | +$2,107 | -$46,112 | 166.9% | $-50,005 (vs do-nothing $-46,337) |
| $27.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.06 | 94/125 | $21,351 | $17,232 | 70% | 77% | +$3,880 | -$49,334 | 178.6% | $-53,284 (vs do-nothing $-49,616) |
| $27.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.61 | 93/125 | $21,390 | $17,275 | 68% | 76% | +$3,907 | -$43,694 | 158.2% | $-47,641 (vs do-nothing $-43,973) |
| $27 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.03 | 96/125 | $21,189 | $17,061 | 67% | 75% | +$231 | -$55,471 | 200.8% | $-59,428 (vs do-nothing $-55,759) |
| $27 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.75 | 85/125 | $21,250 | $17,169 | 65% | 74% | +$3,232 | -$42,995 | 155.6% | $-46,919 (vs do-nothing $-43,250) |
| $26.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.19 | 83/125 | $21,165 | $17,093 | 63% | 73% | $-10 | -$50,782 | 183.8% | $-54,699 (vs do-nothing $-51,031) |
| $26.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.95 | 76/125 | $21,171 | $17,129 | 62% | 73% | +$3,065 | -$40,723 | 147.4% | $-44,619 (vs do-nothing $-40,951) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $26 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.97 | 51/125 | $21,201 | $17,266 | 60% | 71% | +$957 | -$34,875 | 126.2% | $-38,696 (vs do-nothing $-35,028) |
| $26 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.18 | 84/125 | $21,240 | $17,163 | 59% | 70% | $-3,674 | -$55,677 | 201.5% | $-59,598 (vs do-nothing $-55,929) |
| $26 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.13 | 70/125 | $21,300 | $17,283 | 59% | 71% | +$2,619 | -$39,748 | 143.9% | $-43,626 (vs do-nothing $-39,958) |
| $25.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.37 | 63/125 | $21,330 | $17,343 | 56% | 73% | +$2,561 | -$37,411 | 135.4% | $-41,268 (vs do-nothing $-37,600) |
| $25.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.58 | 63/125 | $21,330 | $17,343 | 55% | 69% | $-277 | -$42,388 | 153.4% | $-46,245 (vs do-nothing $-42,577) |
| $25 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.58 | 58/125 | $21,377 | $17,412 | 53% | 68% | +$2,152 | -$36,124 | 130.8% | $-39,966 (vs do-nothing $-36,298) |
| $25 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.82 | 55/125 | $21,450 | $17,498 | 51% | 67% | $-243 | -$38,435 | 139.1% | $-42,269 (vs do-nothing $-38,600) |
| $25 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.41 | 36/125 | $21,754 | $17,883 | 49% | 65% | +$474 | -$26,634 | 96.4% | $-30,410 (vs do-nothing $-26,742) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 125 contracts at the conservative CC.