125 contracts (12,500 sh) | BE SS: $39.71 | CC-SS: $34.14 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $277,625 | (ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 12500 |
| Normal income ref | $43,661/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $4,286/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-86,375 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 125 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 93 × $29 | 79% | $21,921 | $4,035 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 125 × $32.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 24.7% | 94% | 13% | $1,000 | $4,286 | -$17,636 | $19,498 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 × $32.50 24.7% OTM over spot $26.06 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.21 mid) = $1,000 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,286/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $32.50) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $32.72) 94% EV / mo +$636 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.2 mo [0.5-3.1] median · 58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 55% without) · ~1.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $-6,715 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$19,832 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $37 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.36/sh now → $1.67 mid-life (likely $1.27–$2.28) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.59/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 230 simulated challenges: the $32 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $33 (overshoots $0.94). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $32.50 is $2 below CC-SS $34.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $32.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $32)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $35.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.14, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-86,375 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$86,353 − CC assignment net of premium (125 × $32.50): -$19,498 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,520 (+$66,855 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $103 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,623, the opportunity cost of earning $4,286/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.99 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$30,125, position total $-21,061 (+$65,314 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 97 × $30 | 17 Jul | 7d | 15.1% | 85% | 32% | $3,395 | $14,550 | -$7,371 | $36,761 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 97 × $30 15.1% OTM over spot $26.06 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.43 mid) = $3,395 credit for the 7d cycle → $14,550/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $30) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $30.43) 87% EV / mo +$4,838 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.0 mo [0.5-2.6] median · 64% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without) · ~4.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,942 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$10,910 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $35 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 97 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.08/sh now → $1.47 mid-life (likely $1.43–$2.33) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.12/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 673 simulated challenges: the $30 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $31 (overshoots $0.98). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $30 is $4 below CC-SS $34.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.35 collected) or spot ≥ $30.43 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $30)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $35.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.14, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-86,375 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$86,353 − CC assignment net of premium (97 × $30): -$36,761 + Conservative CC premium (28 × $40): +$28 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-36,755 (+$49,620 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $103 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-36,858, the opportunity cost of earning $14,550/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.99 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$45,008, position total $-35,916 (+$50,459 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 93 × $29 | 17 Jul | 7d | 11.3% | 79% | 32% | $5,115 | $21,921 | — | $42,686 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 93 × $29 11.3% OTM over spot $26.06 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.66 mid) = $5,115 credit for the 7d cycle → $21,921/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $29) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $29.66) 83% EV / mo +$7,080 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.0 mo [0.5-2.8] median · 67% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 58% without) · ~6.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $15,070 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$7,914 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $35 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 93 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.98/sh now → $1.40 mid-life (likely $1.47–$2.30) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.85/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 961 simulated challenges: the $29 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $30 (overshoots $0.92). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $29 is $5 below CC-SS $34.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.55 collected) or spot ≥ $29.66 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $29)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $35.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.14, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-86,375 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$86,353 − CC assignment net of premium (93 × $29): -$42,686 + Conservative CC premium (32 × $40): +$32 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-42,675 (+$43,700 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $103 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-42,779, the opportunity cost of earning $21,921/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.99 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$50,592, position total $-41,496 (+$44,879 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 100 × $27 | 17 Jul | 7d | 3.6% | 62% | 79% | $10,200 | $43,714 | +$21,793 | $61,198 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 100 × $27 3.6% OTM over spot $26.06 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.11 mid) = $10,200 credit for the 7d cycle → $43,714/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27) 62% Breach risk 38% POP (stays ≤ $28.11) 73% EV / mo +$5,963 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.1 mo [0.5-2.6] median · 68% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 56% without) · ~15.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $23,835 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 61% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,385 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $35 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 100 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.78/sh now → $1.26 mid-life (likely $1.67–$2.37) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.02/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.24/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,821 simulated challenges: the $27 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $28 (overshoots $0.91). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27 is $7 below CC-SS $34.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.26/sh (~25% of the $1.02 collected) or spot ≥ $28.11 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $27)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $35.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.14, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-86,375 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$86,353 − CC assignment net of premium (100 × $27): -$61,198 + Conservative CC premium (25 × $40): +$25 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-61,195 (+$25,180 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $103 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-61,298, the opportunity cost of earning $43,714/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.99 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$69,700, position total $-60,611 (+$25,764 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 19 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.855 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$86,353 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $103
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $29 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.55 | 93/125 | $21,921 | $17,704 | 79% | 83% | +$7,080 | -$42,686 | 154.5% | $-42,675 (vs do-nothing $-42,779) |
| $30 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.23 | 125/125 | $21,964 | $17,679 | 76% | 81% | +$6,087 | -$36,373 | 131.7% | $-36,395 (vs do-nothing $-36,498) |
| $28.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.45 | 114/125 | $21,986 | $17,724 | 75% | 80% | $-800 | -$59,164 | 214.2% | $-59,175 (vs do-nothing $-59,278) |
| $28 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.70 | 73/125 | $21,900 | $17,726 | 71% | 78% | +$3,737 | -$39,711 | 143.7% | $-39,681 (vs do-nothing $-39,784) |
| $28.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.89 | 115/125 | $21,932 | $17,668 | 71% | 78% | +$1,483 | -$54,623 | 197.7% | $-54,635 (vs do-nothing $-54,738) |
| $28.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.25 | 123/125 | $21,964 | $17,683 | 69% | 76% | $-576 | -$53,995 | 195.5% | $-54,015 (vs do-nothing $-54,118) |
| $28 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.06 | 97/125 | $22,033 | $17,807 | 68% | 77% | +$1,829 | -$49,274 | 178.4% | $-49,268 (vs do-nothing $-49,371) |
| $27.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.81 | 63/125 | $21,870 | $17,717 | 67% | 76% | +$2,490 | -$36,728 | 133.0% | $-36,688 (vs do-nothing $-36,791) |
| $28 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.43 | 107/125 | $21,859 | $17,611 | 66% | 74% | $-188 | -$50,395 | 182.4% | $-50,399 (vs do-nothing $-50,502) |
| $27.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.05 | 98/125 | $22,050 | $17,822 | 65% | 74% | $-1,759 | -$54,780 | 198.3% | $-54,775 (vs do-nothing $-54,878) |
| $27.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.59 | 97/125 | $22,033 | $17,807 | 63% | 74% | $-378 | -$48,983 | 177.3% | $-48,977 (vs do-nothing $-49,080) |
| $27 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.02 | 50/125 | $21,857 | $17,732 | 62% | 73% | +$2,982 | -$30,599 | 110.8% | $-30,546 (vs do-nothing $-30,649) |
| $27 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.53 | 67/125 | $21,966 | $17,805 | 61% | 73% | +$3,066 | -$37,586 | 136.1% | $-37,550 (vs do-nothing $-37,653) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $27 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.79 | 86/125 | $21,991 | $17,789 | 61% | 72% | $-226 | -$46,009 | 166.5% | $-45,991 (vs do-nothing $-46,095) |
| $26.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.00 | 77/125 | $22,000 | $17,817 | 58% | 71% | $-181 | -$43,427 | 157.2% | $-43,400 (vs do-nothing $-43,504) |
| $26.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.47 | 70/125 | $22,050 | $17,882 | 57% | 70% | $-768 | -$43,189 | 156.3% | $-43,156 (vs do-nothing $-43,259) |
| $26 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.26 | 68/125 | $21,954 | $17,791 | 55% | 70% | +$177 | -$39,983 | 144.7% | $-39,948 (vs do-nothing $-40,051) |
| $26 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.69 | 61/125 | $22,091 | $17,942 | 53% | 69% | $-772 | -$39,344 | 142.4% | $-39,302 (vs do-nothing $-39,405) |
| $26 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.43 | 36/125 | $22,063 | $17,968 | 52% | 68% | +$2,089 | -$24,155 | 87.4% | $-24,088 (vs do-nothing $-24,191) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 125 contracts at the conservative CC.