FORTRESS FIGHT: GLXY @ $26.06

BE SS: $39.71  |  CC-SS: $34.14  |  125 contracts (12,500 sh)  |  2026-07-10 22:04 |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GLXY @ $26.06   UNDERWATER $13.65 (34.4% below BE SS)

125 contracts (12,500 sh)  |  BE SS: $39.71  |  CC-SS: $34.14  |  IV: HIGH  |  Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $37.50 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $4.148/sh)
SP: $37.50 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $21.813/sh)
HP: $17.50 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $6.960/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$277,625(ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 12500
Normal income ref$43,661/mo95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost$4,286/mo
Unrealized P&L$-86,375fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$21,830/mo
HEDGE COVER
$4,286/mo
NORMAL INCOME
$43,661/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
0.6 mo to earn back $27,625
ML VELOCITY
6.4 mo to earn back $277,625
Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $34.14 (probe: $34C 14d) brings only $1,339/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.
🏦 Campaign ledger: seeded, nothing tracked yet. Open short calls and banked credits appear here from the next cycle on; CC-SS ratchets down as premium accrues.
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 52 (live) · RSI 49 · MACD bullish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 42 · %B 30 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $34.99 (+34%) · daily UBB $35.71 · 1-wk expected move ±$4 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-28: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 93 contracts at $29 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 79%, breach 21%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($21,830/mo); it brings $21,921/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 100 × $27/7d for $43,714/mo, but breach risk rises to 38% (+16pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 125 × $32.50/7d (94% survival, $4,286/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $42,686 (155% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $40, recoverable in 1.0 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 93 contracts realizes $-65,240 and cuts bleed by $3,189/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 125 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 (7d) · sell 93 × $29, 79% survival, $21,921/mo (E[net] $4,035/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.
TrackExpirySellSurvivalIncome/moE[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆17 Jul 2026 · 7d93 × $2979%$21,921$4,035

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 7d · E[net] $4,035/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 93 × $29 (primary), 79% survival, breach 21%, $21,921/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $30 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 85% (breach 21% → 15%) for $7,371/mo less (34% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $30 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect GLXY to stay flat-to-down near term.
GLXY  spot $26.06 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsPer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
cover hedge125 × $32.5017 Jul7d24.7%94%13%$1,000$4,286-$17,636$19,498
Sell 125 × $32.50 24.7% OTM over spot $26.06 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.21 mid)
= $1,000 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,286/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $32.50)
94%
Breach risk
6%
POP (stays ≤ $32.72)
94%
EV / mo
+$636
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.2 mo [0.5-3.1] median  ·  58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 55% without)  ·  ~1.9 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $-6,715
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
8%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$19,832
Free roll-up
+$1/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$37 @ 80% POP
75% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.36/sh now → $1.67 mid-life (likely $1.27–$2.28)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.59/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 230 simulated challenges: the $32 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $33 (overshoots $0.94). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (125 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$3224 Jul 202610d left+$0.35/sh+$4,418
cycle +$5,418
[+$2,707…+$9,878] · 91% credit
66%
surv 54%
-$12,130 NOT
cap gain +$74,245
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$3324 Jul 202610d left+$0.27/sh+$3,331
cycle +$4,331
[+$1,812…+$8,223] · 90% credit
71%
surv 60%
-$3,170 NOT
cap gain +$83,205
Max even-money escape in the band~$3631 Jul 202618d left+$0.19/sh+$2,357
cycle +$3,357
[+$132…+$7,537] · 75% credit
78%
surv 72%
+$27,918 SAFE
cap gain +$114,293
SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$3731 Jul 202618d left-$0.05/sh-$640
cycle +$360
[-$3,352…+$4,336] · 48% credit
80%
surv 75%
+$35,608 SAFE
cap gain +$121,983
budget: banked $1,000 debit $640 (64% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$360 cash · rolled 125 ct earn ≈ $33,652/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$4,286/mo
vs 50% target ($21,830/mo)-80%
vs normal income ($43,661/mo)10% covered
Net income (after hedge)$0/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $32.50 is $2 below CC-SS $34.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$19,498
… as % of IC ($27,625)70.6%
… as % of ML ($277,625)7.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.4 mo
Surgical close (125 ct)$-88,063
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $32.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $32)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $35.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $32.17Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$32-32.72
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $32.72
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$32.50 (1.7σ)$1,000$-16,548+$69,828+$875
+2.5%$33.31 (1.9σ)$-9,156$-18,020+$68,355-$9,281
+5%$34.12 (2.2σ)$-19,312$-19,493+$66,882-$19,438
SS (= V-bounce)$39.71 (3.6σ)$-89,125$-29,616+$56,759-$89,250
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.14, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-86,375
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$86,353
− CC assignment net of premium (125 × $32.50): -$19,498
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,520 (+$66,855 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $103 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,623, the opportunity cost of earning $4,286/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $34.99 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$30,125, position total $-21,061 (+$65,314 vs today)
33% normal ← lean97 × $3017 Jul7d15.1%85%32%$3,395$14,550-$7,371$36,761
Sell 97 × $30 15.1% OTM over spot $26.06 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.43 mid)
= $3,395 credit for the 7d cycle → $14,550/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $30)
85%
Breach risk
15%
POP (stays ≤ $30.43)
87%
EV / mo
+$4,838
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.0 mo [0.5-2.6] median  ·  64% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without)  ·  ~4.4 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $6,942
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
22%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$10,910
Free roll-up
+$1/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$35 @ 81% POP
77% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 97 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.08/sh now → $1.47 mid-life (likely $1.43–$2.33)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.12/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 673 simulated challenges: the $30 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $31 (overshoots $0.98). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (97 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$3024 Jul 202610d left+$0.31/sh+$3,009
cycle +$6,404
[+$679…+$4,644] · 81% credit
66%
surv 54%
-$37,835 NOT
cap gain +$48,540
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$3131 Jul 202618d left+$0.37/sh+$3,593
cycle +$6,988
[+$556…+$5,292] · 79% credit
71%
surv 62%
-$21,860 NOT
cap gain +$64,515
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$3124 Jul 202610d left+$0.19/sh+$1,847
cycle +$5,242
[-$347…+$3,302] · 70% credit
71%
surv 60%
-$28,950 NOT
cap gain +$57,425
Max even-money escape in the band~$3431 Jul 202618d left+$0.04/sh+$358
cycle +$3,753
[-$2,736…+$1,687] · 39% credit
79%
surv 73%
+$1,624 SAFE
cap gain +$87,999
SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$3531 Jul 202618d left-$0.19/sh-$1,841
cycle +$1,554
[-$5,457…-$685] · 20% credit
81%
surv 77%
+$10,112 SAFE
cap gain +$96,487
budget: banked $3,395 debit $1,841 (54% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,554 cash · rolled 97 ct earn ≈ $20,773/mo while parked; 28 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$14,550/mo
vs 50% target ($21,830/mo)-33%
vs normal income ($43,661/mo)33% covered
Net income (after hedge)$10,324/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $30 is $4 below CC-SS $34.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$36,761
… as % of IC ($27,625)133.1%
… as % of ML ($277,625)13.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.8 mo
Surgical close (97 ct)$-67,803
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.35 collected) or spot ≥ $30.43 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $30)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $35.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $29.70Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$30-30.43
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $30.43
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$30.00 (1.1σ)$3,395$-40,843+$45,532+$3,298
+2.5%$30.75 (1.3σ)$-3,880$-40,103+$46,272-$3,977
+5%$31.50 (1.5σ)$-11,155$-39,362+$47,013-$11,252
SS (= V-bounce)$39.71 (3.6σ)$-90,792$-31,255+$55,120-$90,889
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.14, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-86,375
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$86,353
− CC assignment net of premium (97 × $30): -$36,761
+ Conservative CC premium (28 × $40): +$28
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-36,755 (+$49,620 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $103 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-36,858, the opportunity cost of earning $14,550/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $34.99 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$45,008, position total $-35,916 (+$50,459 vs today)
🎯 50% normal93 × $2917 Jul7d11.3%79%32%$5,115$21,921$42,686
Sell 93 × $29 11.3% OTM over spot $26.06 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.66 mid)
= $5,115 credit for the 7d cycle → $21,921/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $29)
79%
Breach risk
21%
POP (stays ≤ $29.66)
83%
EV / mo
+$7,080
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.0 mo [0.5-2.8] median  ·  67% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 58% without)  ·  ~6.3 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $15,070
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
32%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$7,914
Free roll-up
+$1/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$35 @ 84% POP
81% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 93 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.98/sh now → $1.40 mid-life (likely $1.47–$2.30)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.85/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 961 simulated challenges: the $29 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $30 (overshoots $0.92). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (93 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$2924 Jul 202610d left+$0.29/sh+$2,730
cycle +$7,845
[+$37…+$3,495] · 76% credit
66%
surv 53%
-$47,076 NOT
cap gain +$39,299
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$3031 Jul 202618d left+$0.33/sh+$3,069
cycle +$8,184
[-$355…+$3,676] · 70% credit
71%
surv 63%
-$31,348 NOT
cap gain +$55,027
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$3024 Jul 202610d left+$0.16/sh+$1,502
cycle +$6,617
[-$983…+$2,081] · 57% credit
71%
surv 61%
-$38,259 NOT
cap gain +$48,116
Max even-money escape in the band~$3131 Jul 202618d left+$0.17/sh+$1,537
cycle +$6,652
[-$2,158…+$2,067] · 47% credit
72%
surv 65%
-$27,536 NOT
cap gain +$58,839
SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$3531 Jul 202618d left-$0.48/sh-$4,438
cycle +$677
[-$8,996…-$4,357] · 3% credit
84%
surv 81%
+$9,239 SAFE
cap gain +$95,614
budget: banked $5,115 debit $4,438 (87% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$677 cash · rolled 93 ct earn ≈ $14,318/mo while parked; 32 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$21,921/mo
vs 50% target ($21,830/mo)+0%
vs normal income ($43,661/mo)50% covered
Net income (after hedge)$17,704/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $29 is $5 below CC-SS $34.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$42,686
… as % of IC ($27,625)154.5%
… as % of ML ($277,625)15.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.0 mo
Surgical close (93 ct)$-65,240
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.55 collected) or spot ≥ $29.66 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $29)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $35.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $28.71Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$29-29.66
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $29.66
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$29.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$5,115$-49,807+$36,568+$5,022
+2.5%$29.72 (≤1σ, normal week)$-1,627$-48,801+$37,574-$1,720
+5%$30.45 (1.2σ)$-8,370$-47,795+$38,580-$8,463
SS (= V-bounce)$39.71 (3.6σ)$-94,488$-34,947+$51,428-$94,581
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.14, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-86,375
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$86,353
− CC assignment net of premium (93 × $29): -$42,686
+ Conservative CC premium (32 × $40): +$32
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-42,675 (+$43,700 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $103 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-42,779, the opportunity cost of earning $21,921/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $34.99 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$50,592, position total $-41,496 (+$44,879 vs today)
100% normal100 × $2717 Jul7d3.6%62%79%$10,200$43,714+$21,793$61,198
Sell 100 × $27 3.6% OTM over spot $26.06 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.11 mid)
= $10,200 credit for the 7d cycle → $43,714/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $27)
62%
Breach risk
38%
POP (stays ≤ $28.11)
73%
EV / mo
+$5,963
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.1 mo [0.5-2.6] median  ·  68% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 56% without)  ·  ~15.2 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $23,835
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
61%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$2,385
Free roll-up
+$1/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$35 @ 91% POP
90% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 100 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.78/sh now → $1.26 mid-life (likely $1.67–$2.37)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $1.02/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.24/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,821 simulated challenges: the $27 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $28 (overshoots $0.91). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (100 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$2831 Jul 202618d left+$0.45/sh+$4,504
cycle +$14,704
[-$34…+$2,777] · 75% credit
70%
surv 60%
-$51,554 NOT
cap gain +$34,821
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$2724 Jul 202610d left+$0.26/sh+$2,618
cycle +$12,818
[-$1,230…+$1,158] · 50% credit
66%
surv 53%
-$63,486 NOT
cap gain +$22,889
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$2824 Jul 202610d left+$0.11/sh+$1,062
cycle +$11,262
[-$2,489…-$326] · 22% credit
72%
surv 61%
-$54,995 NOT
cap gain +$31,380
Max even-money escape in the band~$2931 Jul 202618d left+$0.09/sh+$937
cycle +$11,137
[-$4,348…-$1,070] · 17% credit
73%
surv 66%
-$44,433 NOT
cap gain +$41,942
SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$3531 Jul 202618d left-$0.96/sh-$9,636
cycle +$564
[-$18,425…-$12,904]
91%
surv 90%
+$14,463 SAFE
cap gain +$100,838
budget: banked $10,200 debit $9,636 (94% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$564 cash · rolled 100 ct earn ≈ $4,916/mo while parked; 25 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$43,714/mo
vs 50% target ($21,830/mo)+100%
vs normal income ($43,661/mo)100% covered
Net income (after hedge)$39,482/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $27 is $7 below CC-SS $34.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$61,198
… as % of IC ($27,625)221.5%
… as % of ML ($277,625)22.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.4 mo
Surgical close (100 ct)$-70,050
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.26/sh (~25% of the $1.02 collected) or spot ≥ $28.11 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $27)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $35.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $26.73Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$27-28.11
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $28.11
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$27.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$10,200$-66,104+$20,271+$10,100
+2.5%$27.67 (≤1σ, normal week)$3,450$-65,640+$20,735+$3,350
+5%$28.35 (≤1σ, normal week)$-3,300$-65,176+$21,199-$3,400
SS (= V-bounce)$39.71 (3.6σ)$-116,900$-57,366+$29,009-$117,000
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.14, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-86,375
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$86,353
− CC assignment net of premium (100 × $27): -$61,198
+ Conservative CC premium (25 × $40): +$25
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-61,195 (+$25,180 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $103 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-61,298, the opportunity cost of earning $43,714/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $34.99 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$69,700, position total $-60,611 (+$25,764 vs today)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on GLXY are the tiebreakers.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (19 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 19 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.855 (IBKR)  |  Recovery@SS: +$86,353 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $103

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$297d17 Jul 2026$0.5593/125$21,921$17,70479%83%+$7,080-$42,686154.5%$-42,675 (vs do-nothing $-42,779)
$3021d31 Jul 2026$1.23125/125$21,964$17,67976%81%+$6,087-$36,373131.7%$-36,395 (vs do-nothing $-36,498)
$28.507d17 Jul 2026$0.45114/125$21,986$17,72475%80%$-800-$59,164214.2%$-59,175 (vs do-nothing $-59,278)
$287d17 Jul 2026$0.7073/125$21,900$17,72671%78%+$3,737-$39,711143.7%$-39,681 (vs do-nothing $-39,784)
$28.5014d24 Jul 2026$0.89115/125$21,932$17,66871%78%+$1,483-$54,623197.7%$-54,635 (vs do-nothing $-54,738)
$28.5021d31 Jul 2026$1.25123/125$21,964$17,68369%76%$-576-$53,995195.5%$-54,015 (vs do-nothing $-54,118)
$2814d24 Jul 2026$1.0697/125$22,033$17,80768%77%+$1,829-$49,274178.4%$-49,268 (vs do-nothing $-49,371)
$27.507d17 Jul 2026$0.8163/125$21,870$17,71767%76%+$2,490-$36,728133.0%$-36,688 (vs do-nothing $-36,791)
$2821d31 Jul 2026$1.43107/125$21,859$17,61166%74%$-188-$50,395182.4%$-50,399 (vs do-nothing $-50,502)
$27.5014d24 Jul 2026$1.0598/125$22,050$17,82265%74%$-1,759-$54,780198.3%$-54,775 (vs do-nothing $-54,878)
$27.5021d31 Jul 2026$1.5997/125$22,033$17,80763%74%$-378-$48,983177.3%$-48,977 (vs do-nothing $-49,080)
$277d17 Jul 2026$1.0250/125$21,857$17,73262%73%+$2,982-$30,599110.8%$-30,546 (vs do-nothing $-30,649)
$2714d24 Jul 2026$1.5367/125$21,966$17,80561%73%+$3,066-$37,586136.1%$-37,550 (vs do-nothing $-37,653)
Show 6 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$2721d31 Jul 2026$1.7986/125$21,991$17,78961%72%$-226-$46,009166.5%$-45,991 (vs do-nothing $-46,095)
$26.5021d31 Jul 2026$2.0077/125$22,000$17,81758%71%$-181-$43,427157.2%$-43,400 (vs do-nothing $-43,504)
$26.5014d24 Jul 2026$1.4770/125$22,050$17,88257%70%$-768-$43,189156.3%$-43,156 (vs do-nothing $-43,259)
$2621d31 Jul 2026$2.2668/125$21,954$17,79155%70%+$177-$39,983144.7%$-39,948 (vs do-nothing $-40,051)
$2614d24 Jul 2026$1.6961/125$22,091$17,94253%69%$-772-$39,344142.4%$-39,302 (vs do-nothing $-39,405)
$267d17 Jul 2026$1.4336/125$22,063$17,96852%68%+$2,089-$24,15587.4%$-24,088 (vs do-nothing $-24,191)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 125 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1  |  2026-07-10 22:04