FORTRESS FIGHT: GLXY @ $25.64

BE SS: $39.71  |  CC-SS: $33.74  |  125 contracts (12,500 sh) |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GENERATED2026-07-10 22:35

GLXY @ $25.64   UNDERWATER $14.07 (35.4% below BE SS)

125 contracts (12,500 sh)  |  BE SS: $39.71  |  CC-SS: $33.74  |  IV: HIGH  |  Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $37.50 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $4.148/sh)
SP: $37.50 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $21.813/sh)
HP: $17.50 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $6.960/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$277,625(ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 12500
Normal income ref$47,143/mo95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost$4,286/mo
Unrealized P&L$-86,375fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$23,571/mo
HEDGE COVER
$4,286/mo
NORMAL INCOME
$47,143/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
0.6 mo to earn back $27,625
ML VELOCITY
5.9 mo to earn back $277,625
Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $33.74 (probe: $33.5C 14d) brings only $2,411/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.
🏦 Campaign ledger: seeded, nothing tracked yet. Open short calls and banked credits appear here from the next cycle on; CC-SS ratchets down as premium accrues.
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 50 (live) · RSI 49 · MACD bullish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 40 · %B 27 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $34.99 (+36%) · daily UBB $35.72 · 1-wk expected move ±$4 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-28: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 123 contracts at $28.50 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 79%, breach 21%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($23,571/mo); it brings $23,721/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 95 × $26/7d for $47,636/mo, but breach risk rises to 43% (+22pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 112 × $32.50/7d (95% survival, $4,320/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $58,975 (213% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $40, recoverable in 1.3 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 123 contracts realizes $-86,592 and cuts bleed by $4,217/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 125 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 (7d) · sell 123 × $28.50, 79% survival, $23,721/mo (E[net] $-3,020/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.
TrackExpirySellSurvivalIncome/moE[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆17 Jul 2026 · 7d123 × $28.5079%$23,721$-3,020

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 7d · E[net] $-3,020/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 123 × $28.50 (primary), 79% survival, breach 21%, $23,721/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $29.50 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 85% (breach 21% → 15%) for $8,087/mo less (34% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $29.50 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect GLXY to stay flat-to-down near term.
GLXY  spot $25.64 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsPer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
cover hedge112 × $32.5017 Jul7d26.8%95%11%$1,008$4,320-$19,401$12,933
Sell 112 × $32.50 26.8% OTM over spot $25.64 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.21 mid)
= $1,008 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,320/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $32.50)
95%
Breach risk
5%
POP (stays ≤ $32.71)
95%
EV / mo
+$1,649
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.3 mo [0.6-3.0] median  ·  62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 59% without)  ·  ~1.5 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $-5,754
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
6%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$20,796
Free roll-up
+$0/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$35 @ 73% POP
66% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 112 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.75/sh now → $1.95 mid-life (likely $1.37–$2.74)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.86/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 171 simulated challenges: the $32 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $33 (overshoots $0.99). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (112 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$3224 Jul 202610d left+$0.34/sh+$3,862
cycle +$4,870
[+$2,409…+$10,047] · 87% credit
68%
surv 54%
-$8,519 NOT
cap gain +$77,856
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$3324 Jul 202610d left+$0.19/sh+$2,152
cycle +$3,160
[+$512…+$8,244] · 77% credit
69%
surv 56%
-$6,400 NOT
cap gain +$79,975
Max even-money escape in the band~$3531 Jul 202618d left+$0.13/sh+$1,462
cycle +$2,470
[-$999…+$8,079] · 68% credit
73%
surv 66%
+$14,186 SAFE
cap gain +$100,561
SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$4,320/mo
vs 50% target ($23,571/mo)-82%
vs normal income ($47,143/mo)9% covered
Net income (after hedge)$62/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $32.50 is $1 below CC-SS $33.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$12,933
… as % of IC ($27,625)46.8%
… as % of ML ($277,625)4.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.3 mo
Surgical close (112 ct)$-78,736
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot ≥ $32.71 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $32)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $35.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $32.17Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$32-32.71
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $32.71
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$32.50 (1.9σ)$1,008$-12,381+$73,994+$896
+2.5%$33.31 (2.1σ)$-8,092$-12,838+$73,537-$8,204
+5%$34.12 (2.3σ)$-17,192$-13,295+$73,080-$17,304
SS (= V-bounce)$39.71 (3.8σ)$-79,744$-16,436+$69,939-$79,856
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.74, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-86,375
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$86,214
− CC assignment net of premium (112 × $32.50): -$12,933
+ Conservative CC premium (13 × $40): +$13
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,081 (+$73,294 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-36 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,045, the opportunity cost of earning $4,320/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $34.99 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$26,880, position total $-13,781 (+$72,594 vs today)
🛡 safe yield125 × $3117 Jul7d20.9%91%19%$2,000$8,571-$15,150$32,309
Sell 125 × $31 20.9% OTM over spot $25.64 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.22 mid)
= $2,000 credit for the 7d cycle → $8,571/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $31)
91%
Breach risk
9%
POP (stays ≤ $31.22)
91%
EV / mo
+$2,371
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.2 mo [0.5-2.6] median  ·  62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 58% without)  ·  ~2.7 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $1,294
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
11%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$20,633
Free roll-up
+$0/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$34 @ 75% POP
68% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.56/sh now → $1.81 mid-life (likely $1.60–$2.78)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.65/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 330 simulated challenges: the $31 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $32 (overshoots $1.07). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (125 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$3124 Jul 202610d left+$0.32/sh+$3,988
cycle +$5,988
[+$845…+$7,799] · 80% credit
68%
surv 54%
-$23,370 NOT
cap gain +$63,005
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$3331 Jul 202618d left+$0.24/sh+$3,048
cycle +$5,048
[-$1,510…+$6,775] · 64% credit
72%
surv 64%
-$4,524 NOT
cap gain +$81,851
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$3124 Jul 202610d left+$0.17/sh+$2,081
cycle +$4,081
[-$1,444…+$5,567] · 63% credit
69%
surv 56%
-$21,448 NOT
cap gain +$64,927
Max even-money escape in the band~$3331 Jul 202618d left+$0.07/sh+$883
cycle +$2,883
[-$4,033…+$4,595] · 49% credit
74%
surv 66%
-$1,371 NOT
cap gain +$85,004
SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$3431 Jul 202618d left-$0.14/sh-$1,695
cycle +$305
[-$7,116…+$1,919] · 35% credit
75%
surv 68%
+$1,370 SAFE
cap gain +$87,745
budget: banked $2,000 debit $1,695 (85% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$305 cash · rolled 125 ct earn ≈ $34,897/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$8,571/mo
vs 50% target ($23,571/mo)-64%
vs normal income ($47,143/mo)18% covered
Net income (after hedge)$4,286/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $31 is $3 below CC-SS $33.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$32,309
… as % of IC ($27,625)117.0%
… as % of ML ($277,625)11.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.7 mo
Surgical close (125 ct)$-87,125
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.16 collected) or spot ≥ $31.22 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $31)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $35.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $30.69Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$31-31.22
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $31.22
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$31.00 (1.5σ)$2,000$-27,358+$59,017+$1,875
+2.5%$31.77 (1.7σ)$-7,687$-28,801+$57,574-$7,812
+5%$32.55 (1.9σ)$-17,375$-30,245+$56,130-$17,500
SS (= V-bounce)$39.71 (3.8σ)$-106,875$-43,580+$42,795-$107,000
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.74, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-86,375
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$86,214
− CC assignment net of premium (125 × $31): -$32,309
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-32,470 (+$53,905 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-36 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-32,434, the opportunity cost of earning $8,571/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $34.99 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$47,875, position total $-34,789 (+$51,586 vs today)
33% normal ← lean114 × $29.5017 Jul7d15.1%85%31%$3,648$15,634-$8,087$44,742
Sell 114 × $29.50 15.1% OTM over spot $25.64 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.40 mid)
= $3,648 credit for the 7d cycle → $15,634/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $29.50)
85%
Breach risk
15%
POP (stays ≤ $29.89)
87%
EV / mo
+$5,439
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.2 mo [0.6-2.8] median  ·  63% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without)  ·  ~4.5 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $9,542
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
21%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$15,491
Free roll-up
+$0/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$32 @ 75% POP
69% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 114 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.37/sh now → $1.68 mid-life (likely $1.61–$2.58)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.32/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.36/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 634 simulated challenges: the $30 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $30 (overshoots $0.92). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (114 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$3131 Jul 202618d left+$0.39/sh+$4,489
cycle +$8,137
[+$483…+$6,694] · 78% credit
71%
surv 62%
-$22,699 NOT
cap gain +$63,676
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$3024 Jul 202610d left+$0.29/sh+$3,354
cycle +$7,002
[+$119…+$5,526] · 76% credit
67%
surv 54%
-$38,302 NOT
cap gain +$48,073
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$3024 Jul 202610d left+$0.14/sh+$1,616
cycle +$5,264
[-$1,859…+$3,641] · 56% credit
69%
surv 56%
-$36,210 NOT
cap gain +$50,165
Max even-money escape in the band~$3231 Jul 202618d left+$0.01/sh+$156
cycle +$3,804
[-$4,457…+$2,039] · 37% credit
74%
surv 67%
-$16,395 NOT
cap gain +$69,980
SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$3231 Jul 202618d left-$0.18/sh-$2,079
cycle +$1,569
[-$7,225…-$383] · 24% credit
75%
surv 69%
-$13,311 NOT
cap gain +$73,064
budget: banked $3,648 debit $2,079 (57% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,569 cash · rolled 114 ct earn ≈ $28,433/mo while parked; 11 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$15,634/mo
vs 50% target ($23,571/mo)-34%
vs normal income ($47,143/mo)33% covered
Net income (after hedge)$11,372/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $29.50 is $4 below CC-SS $33.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$44,742
… as % of IC ($27,625)162.0%
… as % of ML ($277,625)16.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.9 mo
Surgical close (114 ct)$-79,629
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.32 collected) or spot ≥ $29.89 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $30)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $35.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $29.20Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$29-29.89
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $29.89
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$29.50 (1.0σ)$3,648$-41,655+$44,720+$3,534
+2.5%$30.24 (1.2σ)$-4,759$-42,218+$44,157-$4,873
+5%$30.98 (1.4σ)$-13,167$-42,780+$43,595-$13,281
SS (= V-bounce)$39.71 (3.8σ)$-112,746$-49,440+$36,935-$112,860
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.74, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-86,375
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$86,214
− CC assignment net of premium (114 × $29.50): -$44,742
+ Conservative CC premium (11 × $40): +$11
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-44,892 (+$41,483 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-36 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-44,856, the opportunity cost of earning $15,634/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $34.99 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$58,938, position total $-45,841 (+$40,534 vs today)
🎯 50% normal123 × $28.5017 Jul7d11.2%79%32%$5,535$23,721$58,975
Sell 123 × $28.50 11.2% OTM over spot $25.64 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.58 mid)
= $5,535 credit for the 7d cycle → $23,721/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $28.50)
79%
Breach risk
21%
POP (stays ≤ $29.08)
82%
EV / mo
+$3,910
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.0 mo [0.5-2.4] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.1 mo)  ·  69% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 62% without)  ·  ~6.2 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $15,597
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
32%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$14,066
Free roll-up
+$0/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$33 @ 80% POP
76% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 123 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.25/sh now → $1.59 mid-life (likely $1.59–$2.55)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.14/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 955 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $29 (overshoots $0.86). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (123 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$3031 Jul 202618d left+$0.35/sh+$4,301
cycle +$9,836
[-$833…+$5,843] · 68% credit
72%
surv 62%
-$31,647 NOT
cap gain +$54,728
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$2824 Jul 202610d left+$0.28/sh+$3,421
cycle +$8,956
[-$624…+$5,130] · 67% credit
67%
surv 53%
-$46,994 NOT
cap gain +$39,381
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$2924 Jul 202610d left+$0.13/sh+$1,548
cycle +$7,083
[-$2,828…+$3,014] · 46% credit
69%
surv 56%
-$45,037 NOT
cap gain +$41,338
Max even-money escape in the band~$3031 Jul 202618d left+$0.14/sh+$1,756
cycle +$7,291
[-$3,815…+$2,892] · 44% credit
73%
surv 65%
-$28,873 NOT
cap gain +$57,502
SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$3331 Jul 202618d left-$0.41/sh-$5,050
cycle +$485
[-$11,568…-$4,341] · 10% credit
80%
surv 76%
-$9,085 NOT
cap gain +$77,290
budget: banked $5,535 debit $5,050 (91% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$485 cash · rolled 123 ct earn ≈ $24,252/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$23,721/mo
vs 50% target ($23,571/mo)+1%
vs normal income ($47,143/mo)50% covered
Net income (after hedge)$19,440/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $28.50 is $5 below CC-SS $33.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$58,975
… as % of IC ($27,625)213.5%
… as % of ML ($277,625)21.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.3 mo
Surgical close (123 ct)$-86,592
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.45 collected) or spot ≥ $29.08 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $35.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $28.21Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$28-29.08
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $29.08
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$28.50 (≤1σ, normal week)$5,535$-50,415+$35,960+$5,412
+2.5%$29.21 (≤1σ, normal week)$-3,229$-51,599+$34,776-$3,352
+5%$29.93 (1.2σ)$-11,993$-52,784+$33,591-$12,116
SS (= V-bounce)$39.71 (3.8σ)$-132,348$-69,051+$17,324-$132,471
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.74, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-86,375
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$86,214
− CC assignment net of premium (123 × $28.50): -$58,975
+ Conservative CC premium (2 × $40): +$2
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-59,134 (+$27,241 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-36 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-59,098, the opportunity cost of earning $23,721/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $34.99 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$74,292, position total $-61,204 (+$25,171 vs today)
100% normal95 × $2617 Jul7d1.4%57%92%$11,115$47,636+$23,914$62,460
Sell 95 × $26 1.4% OTM over spot $25.64 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.44 mid)
= $11,115 credit for the 7d cycle → $47,636/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $26)
57%
Breach risk
43%
POP (stays ≤ $27.44)
71%
EV / mo
+$3,472
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.0 mo [0.5-2.3] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.1 mo)  ·  70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 58% without)  ·  ~19.1 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $20,229
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
73%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$2,080
Free roll-up
+$0/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$34 @ 90% POP
89% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 95 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.96/sh now → $1.39 mid-life (likely $1.91–$2.81)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $1.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.22/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 2,179 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $27 (overshoots $0.96). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (95 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$2631 Jul 202618d left+$0.69/sh+$6,539
cycle +$17,654
[+$1,383…+$4,155] · 86% credit
69%
surv 57%
-$61,032 NOT
cap gain +$25,343
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$2624 Jul 202610d left+$0.24/sh+$2,279
cycle +$13,394
[-$2,627…-$1] · 25% credit
67%
surv 53%
-$69,121 NOT
cap gain +$17,254
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$2624 Jul 202610d left+$0.09/sh+$837
cycle +$11,952
[-$4,364…-$1,534] · 11% credit
69%
surv 57%
-$66,734 NOT
cap gain +$19,641
Max even-money escape in the band~$2831 Jul 202618d left+$0.05/sh+$473
cycle +$11,588
[-$6,176…-$2,369] · 9% credit
74%
surv 66%
-$51,141 NOT
cap gain +$35,234
SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$3431 Jul 202618d left-$1.04/sh-$9,877
cycle +$1,238
[-$20,395…-$13,826]
90%
surv 89%
+$2,333 SAFE
cap gain +$88,708
budget: banked $11,115 debit $9,877 (89% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,238 cash · rolled 95 ct earn ≈ $5,531/mo while parked; 30 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$47,636/mo
vs 50% target ($23,571/mo)+102%
vs normal income ($47,143/mo)101% covered
Net income (after hedge)$43,414/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $26 is $8 below CC-SS $33.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$62,460
… as % of IC ($27,625)226.1%
… as % of ML ($277,625)22.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.3 mo
Surgical close (95 ct)$-68,210
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.29/sh (~25% of the $1.17 collected) or spot ≥ $27.44 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $35.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $25.74Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$26-27.44
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $27.44
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$26.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$11,115$-71,401+$14,974+$11,020
+2.5%$26.65 (≤1σ, normal week)$4,940$-70,661+$15,714+$4,845
+5%$27.30 (≤1σ, normal week)$-1,235$-69,922+$16,453-$1,330
SS (= V-bounce)$39.71 (3.8σ)$-119,130$-55,805+$30,570-$119,225
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.74, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-86,375
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$86,214
− CC assignment net of premium (95 × $26): -$62,460
+ Conservative CC premium (30 × $40): +$30
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-62,591 (+$23,784 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-36 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-62,555, the opportunity cost of earning $47,636/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $34.99 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$74,290, position total $-61,174 (+$25,201 vs today)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on GLXY are the tiebreakers.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (17 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 17 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.851 (IBKR)  |  Recovery@SS: +$86,214 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $-36

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$28.507d17 Jul 2026$0.45123/125$23,721$19,44079%82%+$3,910-$58,975213.5%$-59,134 (vs do-nothing $-59,098)
$287d17 Jul 2026$0.5895/125$23,614$19,39375%80%+$4,464-$49,065177.6%$-49,196 (vs do-nothing $-49,160)
$28.5014d24 Jul 2026$0.89124/125$23,649$19,36574%80%+$4,800-$53,998195.5%$-54,159 (vs do-nothing $-54,122)
$27.507d17 Jul 2026$0.7178/125$23,734$19,54971%77%+$4,162-$43,171156.3%$-43,285 (vs do-nothing $-43,249)
$2821d31 Jul 2026$1.43116/125$23,697$19,43168%77%+$2,540-$50,051181.2%$-50,203 (vs do-nothing $-50,167)
$27.5014d24 Jul 2026$1.05105/125$23,625$19,38268%77%+$1,588-$54,544197.4%$-54,686 (vs do-nothing $-54,649)
$277d17 Jul 2026$0.8466/125$23,760$19,60167%75%+$3,272-$38,971141.1%$-39,073 (vs do-nothing $-39,037)
$27.5021d31 Jul 2026$1.59104/125$23,623$19,38266%76%+$2,290-$48,409175.2%$-48,549 (vs do-nothing $-48,513)
$2714d24 Jul 2026$1.3582/125$23,721$19,52864%75%+$3,630-$44,237160.1%$-44,355 (vs do-nothing $-44,319)
$2721d31 Jul 2026$1.7993/125$23,781$19,56463%73%+$2,381-$46,079166.8%$-46,208 (vs do-nothing $-46,172)
$26.5014d24 Jul 2026$1.4775/125$23,625$19,44661%73%+$2,272-$43,310156.8%$-43,422 (vs do-nothing $-43,385)
$26.5021d31 Jul 2026$2.0083/125$23,714$19,51960%73%+$2,346-$43,531157.6%$-43,650 (vs do-nothing $-43,614)
$2621d31 Jul 2026$2.2474/125$23,680$19,50457%72%+$2,423-$40,735147.5%$-40,845 (vs do-nothing $-40,809)
Show 4 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$2614d24 Jul 2026$1.6966/125$23,901$19,74257%72%+$2,173-$39,961144.7%$-40,063 (vs do-nothing $-40,027)
$267d17 Jul 2026$1.1748/125$24,069$19,94857%71%+$1,755-$31,559114.2%$-31,643 (vs do-nothing $-31,607)
$25.5021d31 Jul 2026$2.3970/125$23,900$19,73254%71%+$1,527-$40,983148.4%$-41,089 (vs do-nothing $-41,053)
$25.5014d24 Jul 2026$1.9058/125$23,614$19,47253%71%+$1,648-$36,799133.2%$-36,894 (vs do-nothing $-36,857)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 125 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1  |  2026-07-10 22:35