FORTRESS FIGHT: GLXY @ $24.88

BE SS: $39.71  |  CC-SS: $33.71  |  25 contracts (2,500 sh) |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GENERATED2026-07-11 03:39

GLXY @ $24.88   UNDERWATER $14.83 (37.3% below BE SS)

PARTIAL: 100 of 125 contracts already capped (100x $30C). FIGHTing the 25 uncapped; all figures (income, hedge, cap give-up) are for that slice.

25 of 125 contracts (2,500 sh uncapped)  |  BE SS: $39.71  |  CC-SS: $33.71  |  IV: HIGH  |  Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $37.50 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $4.148/sh)
SP: $37.50 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $21.813/sh)
HP: $17.50 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $6.960/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$55,525(ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 2500
Normal income ref$9,519/mo95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)$0/moHP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $845/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L$-18,775fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$4,760/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$9,519/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
0.6 mo to earn back $5,525
ML VELOCITY
5.8 mo to earn back $55,525
Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $33.71 (probe: $33.5C 13d) brings only $404/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-02
$0
Hole (after banked)
$18,775
was $18,775 · 0% earned back
Cycles closed
0
Credit in flight
$2,054
CC-SS ratchet
$33.77 → $33.71
Open legAcctCredit/shIn flightOpened
100x $30C 17 Jul 2026U10001299$0.21$2,0542026-07-11
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 46 (live) · RSI 47 · MACD bullish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 37 · %B 23 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $34.93 (+40%) · daily UBB $35.82 · 1-wk expected move ±$3 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-28: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 25 contracts at $27.50 / 6d. This is the safest strike (survival 80%, breach 20%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($4,760/mo); it brings $4,875/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 23 × $26/6d for $9,775/mo, but breach risk rises to 34% (+14pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 25 × $29.50/6d (92% survival, $2,125/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $14,554 (263% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $40, recoverable in 1.5 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 25 contracts realizes $-18,975 and cuts bleed by $0/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 (6d) · sell 25 × $27.50, 80% survival, $4,875/mo (E[net] $688/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.
TrackExpirySellSurvivalIncome/moE[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆17 Jul 2026 · 6d25 × $27.5080%$4,875$688

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 6d · E[net] $688/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 25 × $27.50 (primary), 80% survival, breach 20%, $4,875/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $28.50 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 87% (breach 20% → 13%) for $1,635/mo less (34% income) buys safety you do not really need here.
GLXY  spot $24.88 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsPer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
🛡 safe yield25 × $29.5017 Jul6d18.6%92%17%$425$2,125-$2,750$10,104
Sell 25 × $29.50 18.6% OTM over spot $24.88 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.20 mid)
= $425 credit for the 6d cycle → $2,125/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $29.50)
92%
Breach risk
8%
POP (stays ≤ $29.70)
92%
EV / mo
+$1,123
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.7 mo [0.8-3.1] median  ·  64% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 58% without)  ·  ~2.8 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $5,393
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
10%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$2,874
Free roll-up
+$2/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$35 @ 82% POP
78% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.87/sh now → $1.32 mid-life (likely $1.06–$1.99)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.15/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 313 simulated challenges: the $30 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $30 (overshoots $0.85). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (25 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$3024 Jul 202610d left+$0.67/sh+$1,665
cycle +$2,090
[+$1,356…+$2,419] · 99% credit
67%
surv 54%
-$6,926 NOT
cap gain +$11,849
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$3124 Jul 202610d left+$0.12/sh+$294
cycle +$719
[-$234…+$898] · 65% credit
74%
surv 65%
-$4,874 NOT
cap gain +$13,901
Max even-money escape in the band~$3331 Jul 202617d left+$0.10/sh+$251
cycle +$676
[-$467…+$966] · 60% credit
78%
surv 73%
-$692 NOT
cap gain +$18,083
SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$3531 Jul 202617d left-$0.14/sh-$358
cycle +$67
[-$1,163…+$290] · 33% credit
82%
surv 78%
+$1,868 SAFE
cap gain +$20,643
budget: banked $425 debit $358 (84% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$67 cash · rolled 25 ct earn ≈ $5,191/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$2,125/mo
vs 50% target ($4,760/mo)-55%
vs normal income ($9,519/mo)22% covered
Net income (after hedge)$2,125/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $29.50 is $4 below CC-SS $33.71: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$10,104
… as % of IC ($5,525)182.9%
… as % of ML ($55,525)18.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.1 mo
Surgical close (25 ct)$-18,850
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $29.70 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $30)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $35.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $29.20Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$29-29.70
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $29.70
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$29.50 (1.5σ)$425$-8,590+$10,185+$400
+2.5%$30.24 (1.7σ)$-1,419$-8,876+$9,899-$1,444
+5%$30.98 (1.9σ)$-3,263$-9,162+$9,613-$3,288
SS (= V-bounce)$39.71 (4.7σ)$-25,100$-12,547+$6,228-$25,125
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.71, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,775
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,657
− CC assignment net of premium (25 × $29.50): -$10,104
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,222 (+$8,553 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-93 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,129, the opportunity cost of earning $2,125/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $34.93 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$13,150, position total $-10,694 (+$8,081 vs today)
33% normal24 × $28.5017 Jul6d14.5%87%27%$648$3,240-$1,635$11,860
Sell 24 × $28.50 14.5% OTM over spot $24.88 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.32 mid)
= $648 credit for the 6d cycle → $3,240/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $28.50)
87%
Breach risk
13%
POP (stays ≤ $28.82)
89%
EV / mo
+$1,477
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.4 mo [0.8-3.2] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.4 mo)  ·  67% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 62% without)  ·  ~4.2 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $6,241
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
16%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$2,354
Free roll-up
+$2/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$34 @ 83% POP
79% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 24 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.77/sh now → $1.25 mid-life (likely $1.13–$1.95)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.27/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.98/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 482 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $29 (overshoots $0.83). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (24 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$2824 Jul 202610d left+$0.63/sh+$1,517
cycle +$2,165
[+$1,148…+$2,013] · 99% credit
67%
surv 54%
-$8,962 NOT
cap gain +$9,813
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$3231 Jul 202617d left+$0.18/sh+$425
cycle +$1,073
[-$280…+$790] · 64% credit
77%
surv 71%
-$3,463 NOT
cap gain +$15,312
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$3024 Jul 202610d left+$0.08/sh+$198
cycle +$846
[-$362…+$499] · 55% credit
74%
surv 66%
-$6,858 NOT
cap gain +$11,917
Max even-money escape in the band~$3231 Jul 202617d left+$0.05/sh+$115
cycle +$763
[-$648…+$478] · 45% credit
79%
surv 73%
-$2,717 NOT
cap gain +$16,058
SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$3431 Jul 202617d left-$0.19/sh-$464
cycle +$184
[-$1,320…-$164] · 20% credit
83%
surv 79%
-$127 NOT
cap gain +$18,648
budget: banked $648 debit $464 (72% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$184 cash · rolled 24 ct earn ≈ $4,478/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$3,240/mo
vs 50% target ($4,760/mo)-32%
vs normal income ($9,519/mo)34% covered
Net income (after hedge)$3,242/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $28.50 is $5 below CC-SS $33.71: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$11,860
… as % of IC ($5,525)214.7%
… as % of ML ($55,525)21.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.2 mo
Surgical close (24 ct)$-18,132
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.27 collected) or spot ≥ $28.82 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $35.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $28.21Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$28-28.82
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $28.82
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$28.50 (1.1σ)$648$-10,479+$8,296+$624
+2.5%$29.21 (1.4σ)$-1,062$-10,684+$8,091-$1,086
+5%$29.93 (1.6σ)$-2,772$-10,888+$7,887-$2,796
SS (= V-bounce)$39.71 (4.7σ)$-26,256$-13,702+$5,073-$26,280
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.71, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,775
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,657
− CC assignment net of premium (24 × $28.50): -$11,860
+ Conservative CC premium (1 × $40): +$1
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,977 (+$6,798 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-93 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,884, the opportunity cost of earning $3,240/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $34.93 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$14,784, position total $-12,327 (+$6,448 vs today)
🎯 50% normal25 × $27.5017 Jul6d10.5%80%28%$975$4,875$14,554
Sell 25 × $27.50 10.5% OTM over spot $24.88 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.47 mid)
= $975 credit for the 6d cycle → $4,875/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $27.50)
80%
Breach risk
20%
POP (stays ≤ $27.97)
84%
EV / mo
+$1,564
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.6 mo [0.7-3.1] median  ·  67% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 56% without)  ·  ~6.8 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $8,540
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
28%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,984
Free roll-up
+$2/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$33 @ 83% POP
80% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.67/sh now → $1.18 mid-life (likely $1.25–$2.00)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.79/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 849 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $28 (overshoots $0.80). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (25 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$2824 Jul 202610d left+$0.60/sh+$1,498
cycle +$2,473
[+$1,000…+$1,677] · 98% credit
67%
surv 53%
-$10,767 NOT
cap gain +$8,008
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$3031 Jul 202617d left+$0.26/sh+$646
cycle +$1,621
[-$193…+$643] · 65% credit
76%
surv 69%
-$6,085 NOT
cap gain +$12,690
Max even-money escape in the band~$3131 Jul 202617d left+$0.12/sh+$309
cycle +$1,284
[-$585…+$300] · 41% credit
78%
surv 72%
-$5,366 NOT
cap gain +$13,409
SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$2924 Jul 202610d left+$0.05/sh+$122
cycle +$1,097
[-$579…+$113] · 34% credit
74%
surv 66%
-$8,721 NOT
cap gain +$10,054
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$3331 Jul 202617d left-$0.24/sh-$600
cycle +$375
[-$1,671…-$654] · 10% credit
83%
surv 80%
-$2,049 NOT
cap gain +$16,726
budget: banked $975 debit $600 (62% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$375 cash · rolled 25 ct earn ≈ $4,162/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$4,875/mo
vs 50% target ($4,760/mo)+2%
vs normal income ($9,519/mo)51% covered
Net income (after hedge)$4,875/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $27.50 is $6 below CC-SS $33.71: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$14,554
… as % of IC ($5,525)263.4%
… as % of ML ($55,525)26.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.5 mo
Surgical close (25 ct)$-18,975
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.39 collected) or spot ≥ $27.97 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $35.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $27.23Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$27-27.97
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $27.97
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$27.50 (≤1σ, normal week)$975$-12,265+$6,510+$950
+2.5%$28.19 (1.0σ)$-744$-12,532+$6,243-$769
+5%$28.88 (1.3σ)$-2,462$-12,798+$5,977-$2,488
SS (= V-bounce)$39.71 (4.7σ)$-29,550$-16,997+$1,778-$29,575
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.71, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,775
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,657
− CC assignment net of premium (25 × $27.50): -$14,554
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,672 (+$4,103 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-93 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,579, the opportunity cost of earning $4,875/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $34.93 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$17,600, position total $-15,144 (+$3,631 vs today)
100% normal23 × $2617 Jul6d4.5%66%71%$1,955$9,775+$4,900$15,782
Sell 23 × $26 4.5% OTM over spot $24.88 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.89 mid)
= $1,955 credit for the 6d cycle → $9,775/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $26)
66%
Breach risk
34%
POP (stays ≤ $26.89)
75%
EV / mo
+$2,826
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.5 mo [0.8-2.9] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.7 mo)  ·  73% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without)  ·  ~13.3 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $10,649
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
54%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$542
Free roll-up
+$2/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$34 @ 91% POP
90% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 23 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.54/sh now → $1.09 mid-life (likely $1.35–$2.00)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.24/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,611 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $27 (overshoots $0.77). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (23 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$2624 Jul 202610d left+$0.55/sh+$1,268
cycle +$3,223
[+$696…+$1,159] · 98% credit
67%
surv 53%
-$13,184 NOT
cap gain +$5,591
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$2831 Jul 202617d left+$0.40/sh+$911
cycle +$2,866
[+$86…+$666] · 80% credit
75%
surv 68%
-$9,063 NOT
cap gain +$9,712
Max even-money escape in the band~$2931 Jul 202617d left+$0.05/sh+$110
cycle +$2,065
[-$913…-$184] · 18% credit
78%
surv 73%
-$7,751 NOT
cap gain +$11,024
SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$2824 Jul 202610d left+$0.00/sh+$2
cycle +$1,957
[-$793…-$231] · 14% credit
75%
surv 67%
-$11,028 NOT
cap gain +$7,747
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$3431 Jul 202617d left-$0.66/sh-$1,512
cycle +$443
[-$2,978…-$1,936]
91%
surv 90%
+$1,189 SAFE
cap gain +$19,964
budget: banked $1,955 debit $1,512 (77% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$443 cash · rolled 23 ct earn ≈ $1,738/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$9,775/mo
vs 50% target ($4,760/mo)+105%
vs normal income ($9,519/mo)103% covered
Net income (after hedge)$9,780/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $26 is $8 below CC-SS $33.71: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$15,782
… as % of IC ($5,525)285.6%
… as % of ML ($55,525)28.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.7 mo
Surgical close (23 ct)$-17,365
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.85 collected) or spot ≥ $26.89 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $35.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $25.74Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$26-26.89
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $26.89
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$26.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$1,955$-14,452+$4,323+$1,932
+2.5%$26.65 (≤1σ, normal week)$460$-14,574+$4,201+$437
+5%$27.30 (≤1σ, normal week)$-1,035$-14,696+$4,079-$1,058
SS (= V-bounce)$39.71 (4.7σ)$-29,578$-17,023+$1,752-$29,601
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.71, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,775
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,657
− CC assignment net of premium (23 × $26): -$15,782
+ Conservative CC premium (2 × $40): +$2
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,898 (+$2,877 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-93 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,805, the opportunity cost of earning $9,775/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $34.93 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$18,584, position total $-16,126 (+$2,649 vs today)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on GLXY are the tiebreakers.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (17 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 17 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.845 (IBKR)  |  Recovery@SS: +$18,657 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $-93

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$27.506d17 Jul 2026$0.3925/25$4,875$4,87580%84%+$1,564-$14,554263.4%$-14,672 (vs do-nothing $-14,579)
$276d17 Jul 2026$0.5219/25$4,940$4,95476%81%+$1,596-$11,764212.9%$-11,876 (vs do-nothing $-11,783)
$27.5013d24 Jul 2026$0.9323/25$4,936$4,94173%80%+$1,373-$12,148219.9%$-12,264 (vs do-nothing $-12,171)
$27.5020d31 Jul 2026$1.3025/25$4,875$4,87570%78%+$868-$12,279222.2%$-12,397 (vs do-nothing $-12,304)
$2713d24 Jul 2026$0.9921/25$4,798$4,80770%78%+$925-$12,015217.5%$-12,130 (vs do-nothing $-12,036)
$2720d31 Jul 2026$1.5221/25$4,788$4,79768%76%+$960-$10,902197.3%$-11,017 (vs do-nothing $-10,923)
$26.5013d24 Jul 2026$1.2018/25$4,985$5,00167%76%+$1,051-$10,821195.9%$-10,932 (vs do-nothing $-10,839)
$266d17 Jul 2026$0.8512/25$5,100$5,13066%75%+$1,474-$8,234149.0%$-8,339 (vs do-nothing $-8,246)
$26.5020d31 Jul 2026$1.7019/25$4,845$4,85965%75%+$916-$10,472189.5%$-10,584 (vs do-nothing $-10,491)
$2613d24 Jul 2026$1.3516/25$4,985$5,00563%74%+$862-$10,179184.2%$-10,288 (vs do-nothing $-10,195)
$2620d31 Jul 2026$1.8917/25$4,820$4,83862%74%+$1,013-$9,897179.1%$-10,007 (vs do-nothing $-9,914)
$25.5013d24 Jul 2026$1.5414/25$4,975$5,00159%72%+$746-$9,340169.1%$-9,447 (vs do-nothing $-9,354)
$25.5020d31 Jul 2026$2.1016/25$5,040$5,06159%72%+$822-$9,779177.0%$-9,888 (vs do-nothing $-9,795)
Show 4 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$2520d31 Jul 2026$2.3214/25$4,872$4,89755%71%+$872-$8,948162.0%$-9,055 (vs do-nothing $-8,962)
$2513d24 Jul 2026$1.6513/25$4,950$4,97855%69%+$370-$9,180166.2%$-9,286 (vs do-nothing $-9,193)
$256d17 Jul 2026$1.179/25$5,265$5,30254%69%+$819-$6,787122.8%$-6,890 (vs do-nothing $-6,796)
$24.5013d24 Jul 2026$2.0511/25$5,204$5,23650%68%+$712-$7,878142.6%$-7,982 (vs do-nothing $-7,889)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1  |  2026-07-11 03:39