FORTRESS FIGHT: GLXY @ $24.88

BE SS: $39.71  |  CC-SS: $33.35  |  25 contracts (2,500 sh) |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GENERATED2026-07-11 14:09

GLXY @ $24.88   UNDERWATER $14.83 (37.3% below BE SS)

PARTIAL: 100 of 125 contracts already capped (100x $30C). FIGHTing the 25 uncapped; all figures (income, hedge, cap give-up) are for that slice.

25 of 125 contracts (2,500 sh uncapped)  |  BE SS: $39.71  |  CC-SS: $33.35  |  IV: HIGH  |  Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $37.50 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $4.148/sh)
SP: $37.50 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $21.813/sh)
HP: $17.50 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $6.960/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$55,525(ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 2500
Normal income ref$11,784/mo95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)$0/moHP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $926/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L$-17,825fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$5,892/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$11,784/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
0.5 mo to earn back $5,525
ML VELOCITY
4.7 mo to earn back $55,525
Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $33.35 (probe: $33C 13d) brings only $58/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-02
$0
Hole (after banked)
$17,825
was $17,825 · 0% earned back
Cycles closed
0
Credit in flight
$2,054
Open legAcctCredit/shIn flightOpened
100x $30C 17 Jul 2026U10001299$0.21$2,0542026-07-11
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 46 (live) · RSI 47 · MACD bullish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 37 · %B 23 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $34.93 (+40%) · daily UBB $35.82 · 1-wk expected move ±$4 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-28: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 15 contracts at $26 / 6d. This is the safest strike (survival 66%, breach 34%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($5,892/mo); it brings $6,000/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 20 × $25/6d for $12,000/mo, but breach risk rises to 46% (+12pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 25 × $29.50/6d (91% survival, $2,000/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $9,819 (178% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $40, recoverable in 0.8 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 15 contracts realizes $-10,815 and cuts bleed by $0/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 (6d) · sell 15 × $26, 66% survival, $6,000/mo (E[net] $1,642/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.
TrackExpirySellSurvivalIncome/moE[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆17 Jul 2026 · 6d15 × $2666%$6,000$1,642

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 6d · E[net] $1,642/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 15 × $26 (primary), 66% survival, breach 34%, $6,000/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $27.50 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 80% (breach 34% → 20%) for $2,000/mo less (33% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $27.50 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect GLXY to stay flat-to-down near term.
GLXY  spot $24.88 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsPer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
🛡 safe yield25 × $29.5017 Jul6d18.6%91%18%$400$2,000-$4,000$9,215
Sell 25 × $29.50 18.6% OTM over spot $24.88 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.20 mid)
= $400 credit for the 6d cycle → $2,000/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $29.50)
91%
Breach risk
9%
POP (stays ≤ $29.70)
92%
EV / mo
+$926
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.2 mo [0.6-2.8] median  ·  67% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 62% without)  ·  ~2.7 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $4,131
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
10%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$2,871
Free roll-up
+$3/wk
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$32 @ 79% POP
71% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.85/sh now → $1.31 mid-life (likely $1.09–$2.01)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.15/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 315 simulated challenges: the $30 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $30 (overshoots $0.87). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (25 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$3024 Jul 202610d left+$1.08/sh+$2,690
cycle +$3,090
[+$2,673…+$3,425] · 100% credit
70%
surv 54%
-$4,340 NOT
cap gain +$13,485
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$3224 Jul 202610d left+$0.17/sh+$417
cycle +$817
[+$7…+$855] · 76% credit
79%
surv 71%
-$718 NOT
cap gain +$17,107
Max even-money escape in the band~$3224 Jul 202610d left+$0.17/sh+$417
cycle +$817
[+$7…+$855] · 76% credit
79%
surv 71%
-$718 NOT
cap gain +$17,107
SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$2,000/mo
vs 50% target ($5,892/mo)-66%
vs normal income ($11,784/mo)17% covered
Net income (after hedge)$2,000/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $29.50 is $4 below CC-SS $33.35: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$9,215
… as % of IC ($5,525)166.8%
… as % of ML ($55,525)16.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.8 mo
Surgical close (25 ct)$-17,912
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.16 collected) or spot ≥ $29.70 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $30)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $35.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $29.20Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$29-29.70
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $29.70
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$29.50 (1.4σ)$400$-7,030+$10,795+$375
+2.5%$30.24 (1.6σ)$-1,444$-7,214+$10,611-$1,469
+5%$30.98 (1.9σ)$-3,288$-7,399+$10,426-$3,313
SS (= V-bounce)$39.71 (4.6σ)$-25,125$-9,582+$8,242-$25,150
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.35, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,825
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,049
− CC assignment net of premium (25 × $29.50): -$9,215
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,992 (+$9,833 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $1,249 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,240, the opportunity cost of earning $2,000/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $34.93 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$13,175, position total $-8,387 (+$9,438 vs today)
33% normal ← lean20 × $27.5017 Jul6d10.5%80%41%$800$4,000-$2,000$10,892
Sell 20 × $27.50 10.5% OTM over spot $24.88 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.47 mid)
= $800 credit for the 6d cycle → $4,000/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $27.50)
80%
Breach risk
20%
POP (stays ≤ $27.96)
84%
EV / mo
+$1,242
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.2 mo [0.6-2.7] median  ·  72% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 62% without)  ·  ~6.4 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $5,512
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
30%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,548
Free roll-up
+$3/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$32 @ 82% POP
78% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.66/sh now → $1.17 mid-life (likely $1.21–$1.92)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.77/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 885 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $28 (overshoots $0.81). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (20 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$2824 Jul 202610d left+$0.97/sh+$1,938
cycle +$2,738
[+$1,768…+$2,164] · 100% credit
70%
surv 54%
-$9,187 NOT
cap gain +$8,638
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$3031 Jul 202617d left+$0.51/sh+$1,025
cycle +$1,825
[+$519…+$1,223] · 94% credit
75%
surv 67%
-$5,330 NOT
cap gain +$12,495
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$3024 Jul 202610d left+$0.06/sh+$111
cycle +$911
[-$316…+$170] · 38% credit
80%
surv 73%
-$5,119 NOT
cap gain +$12,706
Max even-money escape in the band~$3024 Jul 202610d left+$0.06/sh+$111
cycle +$911
[-$316…+$170] · 38% credit
80%
surv 73%
-$5,119 NOT
cap gain +$12,706
SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$3231 Jul 202617d left-$0.29/sh-$586
cycle +$214
[-$1,424…-$559] · 9% credit
82%
surv 78%
-$1,316 NOT
cap gain +$16,509
budget: banked $800 debit $586 (73% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$214 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $3,109/mo while parked; 5 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$4,000/mo
vs 50% target ($5,892/mo)-32%
vs normal income ($11,784/mo)34% covered
Net income (after hedge)$4,012/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $27.50 is $6 below CC-SS $33.35: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$10,892
… as % of IC ($5,525)197.1%
… as % of ML ($55,525)19.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.9 mo
Surgical close (20 ct)$-14,390
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.40 collected) or spot ≥ $27.96 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $35.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $27.23Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$27-27.96
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $27.96
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$27.50 (≤1σ, normal week)$800$-11,125+$6,700+$780
+2.5%$28.19 (1.0σ)$-575$-10,953+$6,872-$595
+5%$28.88 (1.2σ)$-1,950$-10,781+$7,044-$1,970
SS (= V-bounce)$39.71 (4.6σ)$-23,620$-8,072+$9,752-$23,640
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.35, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,825
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,049
− CC assignment net of premium (20 × $27.50): -$10,892
+ Conservative CC premium (5 × $40): +$5
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,663 (+$8,162 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $1,249 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,912, the opportunity cost of earning $4,000/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $34.93 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$14,060, position total $-9,267 (+$8,558 vs today)
🎯 50% normal15 × $2617 Jul6d4.5%66%54%$1,200$6,000$9,819
Sell 15 × $26 4.5% OTM over spot $24.88 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.88 mid)
= $1,200 credit for the 6d cycle → $6,000/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $26)
66%
Breach risk
34%
POP (stays ≤ $26.88)
75%
EV / mo
+$1,382
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.4 mo [0.7-3.3] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.5 mo)  ·  71% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 62% without)  ·  ~14.1 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $7,291
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
54%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$416
Free roll-up
+$2/wk
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$34 @ 95% POP
94% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.52/sh now → $1.08 mid-life (likely $1.38–$2.04)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.28/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,618 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $27 (overshoots $0.81). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (15 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$2624 Jul 202610d left+$0.89/sh+$1,338
cycle +$2,538
[+$1,140…+$1,335] · 100% credit
69%
surv 53%
-$12,757 NOT
cap gain +$5,068
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$2831 Jul 202617d left+$0.41/sh+$622
cycle +$1,822
[+$84…+$469] · 82% credit
76%
surv 68%
-$8,703 NOT
cap gain +$9,122
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$2824 Jul 202610d left+$0.10/sh+$156
cycle +$1,356
[-$250…+$25] · 29% credit
78%
surv 71%
-$9,169 NOT
cap gain +$8,656
Max even-money escape in the band~$2824 Jul 202610d left+$0.10/sh+$156
cycle +$1,356
[-$250…+$25] · 29% credit
78%
surv 71%
-$9,169 NOT
cap gain +$8,656
SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$3424 Jul 202610d left-$0.77/sh-$1,150
cycle +$50
[-$2,026…-$1,430]
95%
surv 94%
+$1,900 SAFE
cap gain +$19,725
budget: banked $1,200 debit $1,150 (96% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$50 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $1,399/mo while parked; 10 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$6,000/mo
vs 50% target ($5,892/mo)+2%
vs normal income ($11,784/mo)51% covered
Net income (after hedge)$6,023/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $26 is $7 below CC-SS $33.35: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$9,819
… as % of IC ($5,525)177.7%
… as % of ML ($55,525)17.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.8 mo
Surgical close (15 ct)$-10,815
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.80 collected) or spot ≥ $26.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $35.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $25.74Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$26-26.88
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $26.88
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$26.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$1,200$-14,095+$3,730+$1,185
+2.5%$26.65 (≤1σ, normal week)$225$-13,607+$4,218+$210
+5%$27.30 (≤1σ, normal week)$-750$-13,120+$4,705-$765
SS (= V-bounce)$39.71 (4.6σ)$-19,365$-3,812+$14,012-$19,380
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.35, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,825
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,049
− CC assignment net of premium (15 × $26): -$9,819
+ Conservative CC premium (10 × $40): +$10
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,585 (+$9,240 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $1,249 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,834, the opportunity cost of earning $6,000/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $34.93 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,195, position total $-7,397 (+$10,428 vs today)
100% normal20 × $2517 Jul6d0.5%54%97%$2,400$12,000+$6,000$14,292
Sell 20 × $25 0.5% OTM over spot $24.88 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $1.28 mid)
= $2,400 credit for the 6d cycle → $12,000/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $25)
54%
Breach risk
46%
POP (stays ≤ $26.28)
69%
EV / mo
+$2,033
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.3 mo [0.7-2.7] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.5 mo)  ·  76% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 64% without)  ·  ~22.8 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $7,760
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
73%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
+$370
Free roll-up
+$2/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$32 @ 90% POP
89% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.43/sh now → $1.01 mid-life (likely $1.41–$2.17)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $1.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.19/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 2,189 simulated challenges: the $25 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 6, at $26 (overshoots $0.91). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (20 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$2524 Jul 202610d left+$0.84/sh+$1,685
cycle +$4,085
[+$1,381…+$1,538] · 100% credit
69%
surv 53%
-$13,465 NOT
cap gain +$4,360
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$2731 Jul 202617d left+$0.35/sh+$704
cycle +$3,104
[-$174…+$325] · 62% credit
76%
surv 68%
-$9,676 NOT
cap gain +$8,149
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$2724 Jul 202610d left+$0.06/sh+$112
cycle +$2,512
[-$557…-$158] · 10% credit
79%
surv 71%
-$10,268 NOT
cap gain +$7,557
Max even-money escape in the band~$2724 Jul 202610d left+$0.06/sh+$112
cycle +$2,512
[-$557…-$158] · 10% credit
79%
surv 71%
-$10,268 NOT
cap gain +$7,557
SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$3231 Jul 202617d left-$0.75/sh-$1,508
cycle +$892
[-$3,357…-$2,162]
90%
surv 89%
-$638 NOT
cap gain +$17,187
budget: banked $2,400 debit $1,508 (63% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$892 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $920/mo while parked; 5 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$12,000/mo
vs 50% target ($5,892/mo)+104%
vs normal income ($11,784/mo)102% covered
Net income (after hedge)$12,012/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $25 is $8 below CC-SS $33.35: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$14,292
… as % of IC ($5,525)258.7%
… as % of ML ($55,525)25.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.2 mo
Surgical close (20 ct)$-14,420
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.30/sh (~25% of the $1.20 collected) or spot ≥ $26.28 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $25)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $35.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $24.75Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$25-26.28
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $26.28
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$25.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$2,400$-15,150+$2,675+$2,380
+2.5%$25.62 (≤1σ, normal week)$1,150$-14,994+$2,831+$1,130
+5%$26.25 (≤1σ, normal week)$-100$-14,837+$2,988-$120
SS (= V-bounce)$39.71 (4.6σ)$-27,020$-11,472+$6,352-$27,040
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.35, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,825
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,049
− CC assignment net of premium (20 × $25): -$14,292
+ Conservative CC premium (5 × $40): +$5
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,063 (+$4,762 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $1,249 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,312, the opportunity cost of earning $12,000/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $34.93 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$17,460, position total $-12,667 (+$5,158 vs today)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on GLXY are the tiebreakers.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (13 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 13 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback)  |  Recovery@SS: +$19,049 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $1,249

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$27.5013d24 Jul 2026$1.2022/25$6,077$6,08473%80%+$2,479-$10,228185.1%$-9,001 (vs do-nothing $-10,250)
$2713d24 Jul 2026$1.3220/25$6,095$6,10670%78%+$2,219-$10,051181.9%$-8,822 (vs do-nothing $-10,071)
$26.5013d24 Jul 2026$1.4318/25$5,959$5,97566%76%+$1,847-$9,741176.3%$-8,510 (vs do-nothing $-9,759)
$266d17 Jul 2026$0.8015/25$6,000$6,02366%75%+$1,382-$9,819177.7%$-8,585 (vs do-nothing $-9,834)
$26.5020d31 Jul 2026$1.7123/25$5,900$5,90465%75%+$1,187-$11,813213.8%$-10,587 (vs do-nothing $-11,836)
$2613d24 Jul 2026$1.5517/25$6,075$6,09363%74%+$1,522-$9,856178.4%$-8,624 (vs do-nothing $-9,873)
$2620d31 Jul 2026$1.9021/25$5,985$5,99462%74%+$1,112-$11,437207.0%$-10,209 (vs do-nothing $-11,458)
$25.5013d24 Jul 2026$1.8015/25$6,215$6,23859%72%+$1,531-$9,076164.3%$-7,842 (vs do-nothing $-9,091)
$25.5020d31 Jul 2026$2.0919/25$5,956$5,97059%72%+$978-$10,936197.9%$-9,707 (vs do-nothing $-10,955)
$2520d31 Jul 2026$2.2918/25$6,183$6,19956%70%+$876-$10,901197.3%$-9,670 (vs do-nothing $-10,919)
$2513d24 Jul 2026$2.0413/25$6,128$6,15555%71%+$1,420-$8,195148.3%$-6,959 (vs do-nothing $-8,208)
$256d17 Jul 2026$1.2010/25$6,000$6,03554%69%+$1,016-$7,146129.3%$-5,907 (vs do-nothing $-7,156)
$24.5013d24 Jul 2026$2.2912/25$6,340$6,37051%69%+$1,330-$7,868142.4%$-6,631 (vs do-nothing $-7,880)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1  |  2026-07-11 14:09