25 of 125 contracts (2,500 sh uncapped) | BE SS: $39.71 | CC-SS: $32.83 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $55,525 | (ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $12,341/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $929/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-17,975 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100x $30C 17 Jul 2026 | U10001299 | $0.21 | $2,054 | 2026-07-11 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 4d | 21 × $27.50 | 89% | $6,300 | $3,266 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 11d | 20 × $26 | 68% | $6,273 | $224 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 33% normal | 22 × $28.50 | 17 Jul | 4d | 17.2% | 94% | 12% | $550 | $4,125 | -$2,175 | $8,972 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 22 × $28.50 17.2% OTM over spot $24.32 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.33 mid) = $550 credit for the 4d cycle → $4,125/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $28.50) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $28.82) 95% EV / mo +$3,564 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.7-3.4] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.5 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 67% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 58% without) · ~2.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,739 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,672 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $31 @ 79% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 22 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.07/sh now → $1.46 mid-life (likely $1.22–$2.23) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.21/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 183 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $29 (overshoots $0.79). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $28.50 is $4 below CC-SS $32.83: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $28.82 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $32.83, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,975 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,974 − CC assignment net of premium (22 × $28.50): -$8,972 + Conservative CC premium (3 × $40): +$3 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,970 (+$9,005 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $24 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,994, the opportunity cost of earning $4,125/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $28 | 17 Jul | 4d | 15.1% | 92% | 16% | $750 | $5,625 | -$675 | $11,321 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $28 15.1% OTM over spot $24.32 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.39 mid) = $750 credit for the 4d cycle → $5,625/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $28) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $28.39) 94% EV / mo +$4,597 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.8-3.3] median · 72% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without) · ~3.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,425 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,812 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $31 @ 79% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.01/sh now → $1.42 mid-life (likely $1.18–$2.27) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.12/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 284 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $29 (overshoots $0.80). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $28 is $5 below CC-SS $32.83: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.30 collected) or spot ≥ $28.39 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $32.83, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,975 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,974 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $28): -$11,321 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,322 (+$6,653 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $24 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,346, the opportunity cost of earning $5,625/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 21 × $27.50 | 17 Jul | 4d | 13.1% | 89% | 14% | $840 | $6,300 | — | $10,349 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 21 × $27.50 13.1% OTM over spot $24.32 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.47 mid) = $840 credit for the 4d cycle → $6,300/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27.50) 89% Breach risk 11% POP (stays ≤ $27.96) 92% EV / mo +$4,920 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.7-3.3] median · 74% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 61% without) · ~4.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,486 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,070 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $33 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 21 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.96/sh now → $1.39 mid-life (likely $1.34–$2.36) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.99/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 417 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $28 (overshoots $0.83). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27.50 is $5 below CC-SS $32.83: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.40 collected) or spot ≥ $27.96 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $32.83, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,975 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,974 − CC assignment net of premium (21 × $27.50): -$10,349 + Conservative CC premium (4 × $40): +$4 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,347 (+$7,628 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $24 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,370, the opportunity cost of earning $6,300/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 21 × $26 | 17 Jul | 4d | 6.9% | 76% | 50% | $1,680 | $12,600 | +$6,300 | $12,659 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 21 × $26 6.9% OTM over spot $24.32 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.88 mid) = $1,680 credit for the 4d cycle → $12,600/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $26.88) 85% EV / mo +$8,180 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.7-3.3] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.8 mo) · 86% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 58% without) · ~9.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $13,341 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 35% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$989 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $31 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 21 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.80/sh now → $1.27 mid-life (likely $1.38–$2.33) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.47/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,036 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $27 (overshoots $0.76). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $26 is $7 below CC-SS $32.83: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.80 collected) or spot ≥ $26.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $32.83, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,975 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,974 − CC assignment net of premium (21 × $26): -$12,659 + Conservative CC premium (4 × $40): +$4 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,657 (+$5,318 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $24 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,680, the opportunity cost of earning $12,600/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $30 | 24 Jul | 11d | 23.4% | 90% | 20% | $800 | $2,182 | -$4,091 | $6,271 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $30 23.4% OTM over spot $24.32 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.72 mid) = $800 credit for the 11d cycle → $2,182/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $30) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $30.72) 92% EV / mo +$1,232 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.7-3.2] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.6 mo) · 66% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 58% without) · ~1.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,293 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,557 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $32 @ 76% POP 64% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.59/sh now → $2.54 mid-life (likely $2.23–$3.59) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.32/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.22/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 416 simulated challenges: the $30 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 11, at $31 (overshoots $1.00). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $30 is $3 below CC-SS $32.83: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.32 collected) or spot ≥ $30.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $30)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $32.83, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,975 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,974 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $30): -$6,271 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,272 (+$11,703 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $24 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,296, the opportunity cost of earning $2,182/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 25 × $28 | 24 Jul | 11d | 15.1% | 82% | 38% | $1,500 | $4,091 | -$2,182 | $10,571 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $28 15.1% OTM over spot $24.32 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.91 mid) = $1,500 credit for the 11d cycle → $4,091/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $28) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $28.91) 86% EV / mo +$1,758 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.6-2.8] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.5 mo) · 64% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 52% without) · ~3.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,886 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 28% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,214 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $30 @ 78% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.23/sh now → $2.29 mid-life (likely $2.32–$3.44) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.69/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 853 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $29 (overshoots $0.82). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $28 is $5 below CC-SS $32.83: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.60 collected) or spot ≥ $28.91 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $32.83, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,975 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,974 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $28): -$10,571 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,572 (+$7,403 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $24 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,596, the opportunity cost of earning $4,091/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 20 × $26 | 24 Jul | 11d | 6.9% | 68% | 54% | $2,300 | $6,273 | — | $11,356 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $26 6.9% OTM over spot $24.32 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $1.49 mid) = $2,300 credit for the 11d cycle → $6,273/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26) 68% Breach risk 32% POP (stays ≤ $27.49) 79% EV / mo +$2,029 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.7-2.9] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.5 mo) · 69% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 58% without) · ~7.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,126 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 54% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,782 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $29 @ 80% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.88/sh now → $2.04 mid-life (likely $2.53–$3.45) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.89/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,630 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 11, at $27 (overshoots $0.81). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $26 is $7 below CC-SS $32.83: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.29/sh (~25% of the $1.15 collected) or spot ≥ $27.49 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $32.83, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,975 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,974 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $26): -$11,356 + Conservative CC premium (5 × $40): +$5 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,353 (+$6,622 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $24 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,376, the opportunity cost of earning $6,273/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 22 × $24 | 24 Jul | 11d | -1.3% | 50% | 99+% | $4,576 | $12,480 | +$6,207 | $14,846 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 22 × $24 1.3% ITM over spot $24.32 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $2.38 mid) = $4,576 credit for the 11d cycle → $12,480/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $24) 50% Breach risk 50% POP (stays ≤ $26.38) 71% EV / mo +$2,972 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$596 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $30 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 22 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.56/sh now → $1.81 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.27/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $24 is $9 below CC-SS $32.83: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.52/sh (~25% of the $2.08 collected) or spot ≥ $26.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $24)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $32.83, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,975 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,974 − CC assignment net of premium (22 × $24): -$14,846 + Conservative CC premium (3 × $40): +$3 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,844 (+$3,131 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $24 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,868, the opportunity cost of earning $12,480/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 16 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.845 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$17,974 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $24
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $27.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.40 | 21/25 | $6,300 | $6,311 | 89% | 92% | +$4,920 | -$10,349 | 187.3% | $-10,347 (vs do-nothing $-10,370) |
| $27 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.46 | 18/25 | $6,210 | $6,229 | 85% | 90% | +$4,438 | -$9,663 | 174.9% | $-9,657 (vs do-nothing $-9,681) |
| $26 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.80 | 11/25 | $6,600 | $6,638 | 76% | 85% | +$4,285 | -$6,631 | 120.0% | $-6,618 (vs do-nothing $-6,642) |
| $27 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.53 | 25/25 | $6,375 | $6,375 | 72% | 81% | +$2,754 | -$10,746 | 194.5% | $-10,747 (vs do-nothing $-10,771) |
| $26.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.71 | 22/25 | $6,270 | $6,278 | 69% | 79% | +$2,581 | -$10,160 | 183.9% | $-10,158 (vs do-nothing $-10,182) |
| $26 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.15 | 20/25 | $6,273 | $6,286 | 68% | 79% | +$2,029 | -$11,356 | 205.5% | $-11,353 (vs do-nothing $-11,376) |
| $26 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.90 | 20/25 | $6,333 | $6,347 | 66% | 79% | +$2,466 | -$9,856 | 178.4% | $-9,853 (vs do-nothing $-9,876) |
| $25.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.34 | 17/25 | $6,213 | $6,235 | 64% | 78% | +$1,854 | -$10,180 | 184.3% | $-10,173 (vs do-nothing $-10,197) |
| $25.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.09 | 18/25 | $6,270 | $6,289 | 63% | 76% | +$2,271 | -$9,429 | 170.7% | $-9,423 (vs do-nothing $-9,447) |
| $25 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.20 | 7/25 | $6,300 | $6,349 | 63% | 79% | +$3,386 | -$4,640 | 84.0% | $-4,623 (vs do-nothing $-4,647) |
| $25 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.25 | 19/25 | $6,477 | $6,494 | 60% | 74% | +$635 | -$12,499 | 226.2% | $-12,494 (vs do-nothing $-12,518) |
| $25 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.29 | 17/25 | $6,488 | $6,510 | 59% | 74% | +$2,015 | -$9,415 | 170.4% | $-9,408 (vs do-nothing $-9,432) |
| $24.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.81 | 13/25 | $6,417 | $6,450 | 55% | 73% | +$1,659 | -$8,474 | 153.4% | $-8,463 (vs do-nothing $-8,487) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $24 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.82 | 14/25 | $6,580 | $6,610 | 52% | 72% | +$1,838 | -$8,412 | 152.2% | $-8,402 (vs do-nothing $-8,426) |
| $24 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.08 | 11/25 | $6,240 | $6,278 | 50% | 71% | +$1,486 | -$7,423 | 134.4% | $-7,410 (vs do-nothing $-7,434) |
| $24 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.67 | 5/25 | $6,262 | $6,317 | 47% | 73% | +$2,505 | -$3,579 | 64.8% | $-3,560 (vs do-nothing $-3,584) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.