25 of 125 contracts (2,500 sh uncapped) | BE SS: $39.71 | CC-SS: $33.07 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $55,525 | (ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $11,830/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $929/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-17,975 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100x $30C 17 Jul 2026 | U10001299 | $0.21 | $2,054 | 2026-07-11 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 4d | 20 × $27.50 | 87% | $6,000 | $2,807 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 11d | 25 × $27.50 | 77% | $6,068 | $648 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 33% normal | 21 × $28.50 | 17 Jul | 4d | 16.0% | 93% | 15% | $525 | $3,938 | -$2,062 | $9,063 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 21 × $28.50 16.0% OTM over spot $24.57 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.33 mid) = $525 credit for the 4d cycle → $3,938/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $28.50) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $28.82) 94% EV / mo +$3,147 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.7-2.9] median · 70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 60% without) · ~3.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,054 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,603 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $31 @ 77% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 21 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.11/sh now → $1.49 mid-life (likely $1.19–$2.28) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.24/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 234 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $29 (overshoots $0.76). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $28.50 is $5 below CC-SS $33.07: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $28.82 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $35.83 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.07, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,975 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,937 − CC assignment net of premium (21 × $28.50): -$9,063 + Conservative CC premium (4 × $40): +$4 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,097 (+$8,878 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-13 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,084, the opportunity cost of earning $3,938/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.93 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,978, position total $-9,074 (+$8,901 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $28 | 17 Jul | 4d | 13.9% | 90% | 20% | $750 | $5,625 | -$375 | $11,915 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $28 13.9% OTM over spot $24.57 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.39 mid) = $750 credit for the 4d cycle → $5,625/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $28) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $28.39) 92% EV / mo +$4,203 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.7-3.3] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.6 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 74% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 58% without) · ~4.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $10,280 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,873 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $30 @ 77% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.05/sh now → $1.45 mid-life (likely $1.28–$2.45) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.15/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 347 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $29 (overshoots $0.83). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $28 is $5 below CC-SS $33.07: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.30 collected) or spot ≥ $28.39 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $35.83 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.07, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,975 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,937 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $28): -$11,915 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,953 (+$6,022 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-13 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,940, the opportunity cost of earning $5,625/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.93 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$16,575, position total $-12,675 (+$5,300 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 20 × $27.50 | 17 Jul | 4d | 11.9% | 87% | 15% | $800 | $6,000 | — | $10,332 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $27.50 11.9% OTM over spot $24.57 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.47 mid) = $800 credit for the 4d cycle → $6,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27.50) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $27.96) 90% EV / mo +$4,301 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.7-3.1] median · 70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 56% without) · ~5.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $10,893 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,019 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $30 @ 81% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.99/sh now → $1.41 mid-life (likely $1.37–$2.29) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.01/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 453 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $28 (overshoots $0.76). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27.50 is $6 below CC-SS $33.07: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.40 collected) or spot ≥ $27.96 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $35.83 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.07, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,975 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,937 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $27.50): -$10,332 + Conservative CC premium (5 × $40): +$5 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,365 (+$7,610 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-13 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,352, the opportunity cost of earning $6,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.93 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$14,060, position total $-10,155 (+$7,820 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 20 × $26 | 17 Jul | 4d | 5.8% | 73% | 57% | $1,600 | $12,000 | +$6,000 | $12,532 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $26 5.8% OTM over spot $24.57 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.88 mid) = $1,600 credit for the 4d cycle → $12,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $26.88) 82% EV / mo +$6,818 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.7-3.2] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.8 mo) · 79% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 59% without) · ~11.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $13,232 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 40% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$987 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $31 @ 90% POP 88% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.83/sh now → $1.29 mid-life (likely $1.52–$2.51) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.49/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,206 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $27 (overshoots $0.80). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $26 is $7 below CC-SS $33.07: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.80 collected) or spot ≥ $26.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $35.83 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.07, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,975 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,937 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $26): -$12,532 + Conservative CC premium (5 × $40): +$5 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,565 (+$5,410 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-13 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,552, the opportunity cost of earning $12,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.93 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$16,260, position total $-12,355 (+$5,620 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $32 | 24 Jul | 11d | 30.2% | 94% | 12% | $425 | $1,159 | -$4,909 | $2,240 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $32 30.2% OTM over spot $24.57 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.54 mid) = $425 credit for the 11d cycle → $1,159/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $32) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $32.53) 95% EV / mo +$714 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.7-2.9] median · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 58% without) · ~1.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,960 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,018 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $33 @ 74% POP 62% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.64/sh now → $2.58 mid-life (likely $1.97–$3.19) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.41/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 235 simulated challenges: the $32 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $33 (overshoots $0.94). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $32 is $1 below CC-SS $33.07: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $32.53 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $32)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $35.83 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.07, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,975 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,937 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $32): -$2,240 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,278 (+$15,697 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-13 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,265, the opportunity cost of earning $1,159/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.93 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,900, position total $-3,000 (+$14,975 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 24 × $28 | 24 Jul | 11d | 13.9% | 80% | 42% | $1,440 | $3,927 | -$2,141 | $10,718 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 24 × $28 13.9% OTM over spot $24.57 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.91 mid) = $1,440 credit for the 11d cycle → $3,927/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $28) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $28.91) 85% EV / mo +$1,359 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.7-3.3] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.6 mo) · 66% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 55% without) · ~4.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,795 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,589 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $30 @ 78% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 24 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.96/sh now → $2.10 mid-life (likely $2.13–$3.31) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.50/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,005 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $29 (overshoots $0.88). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $28 is $5 below CC-SS $33.07: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.60 collected) or spot ≥ $28.91 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $35.83 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.07, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,975 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,937 − CC assignment net of premium (24 × $28): -$10,718 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $40): +$1 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,755 (+$7,220 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-13 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,742, the opportunity cost of earning $3,927/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.93 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$15,192, position total $-11,291 (+$6,684 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 25 × $27.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 11.9% | 77% | 39% | $2,225 | $6,068 | — | $11,690 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $27.50 11.9% OTM over spot $24.57 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $1.11 mid) = $2,225 credit for the 11d cycle → $6,068/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27.50) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $28.61) 83% EV / mo +$2,774 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.6-3.2] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.4 mo) · 73% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 58% without) · ~4.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,101 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 39% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,871 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $30 @ 78% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.88/sh now → $2.04 mid-life (likely $2.20–$3.23) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.89/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.15/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,170 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $28 (overshoots $0.81). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27.50 is $6 below CC-SS $33.07: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.22/sh (~25% of the $0.89 collected) or spot ≥ $28.61 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $35.83 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.07, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,975 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,937 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $27.50): -$11,690 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,728 (+$6,247 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-13 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,715, the opportunity cost of earning $6,068/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.93 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$16,350, position total $-12,450 (+$5,525 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 24 × $24.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | -0.3% | 53% | 99+% | $4,344 | $11,847 | +$5,779 | $16,214 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 24 × $24.50 0.3% ITM over spot $24.57 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $2.15 mid) = $4,344 credit for the 11d cycle → $11,847/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $24.50) 53% Breach risk 47% POP (stays ≤ $26.64) 71% EV / mo +$2,190 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$237 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $30 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 24 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.42/sh now → $1.71 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.81/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.10/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $24.50 is $9 below CC-SS $33.07: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.45/sh (~25% of the $1.81 collected) or spot ≥ $26.64 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $24)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $35.83 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.07, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,975 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,937 − CC assignment net of premium (24 × $24.50): -$16,214 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $40): +$1 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,251 (+$1,724 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-13 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,238, the opportunity cost of earning $11,847/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.93 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$20,688, position total $-16,787 (+$1,188 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 15 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.845 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$17,937 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-13
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $27.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.40 | 20/25 | $6,000 | $6,014 | 87% | 90% | +$4,301 | -$10,332 | 187.0% | $-10,365 (vs do-nothing $-10,352) |
| $27 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.46 | 18/25 | $6,210 | $6,229 | 83% | 88% | +$3,956 | -$10,091 | 182.6% | $-10,122 (vs do-nothing $-10,109) |
| $27.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.89 | 25/25 | $6,068 | $6,068 | 77% | 83% | +$2,774 | -$11,690 | 211.6% | $-11,728 (vs do-nothing $-11,715) |
| $26 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.80 | 10/25 | $6,000 | $6,041 | 73% | 82% | +$3,409 | -$6,266 | 113.4% | $-6,289 (vs do-nothing $-6,276) |
| $27 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.53 | 24/25 | $6,120 | $6,123 | 70% | 80% | +$2,143 | -$10,886 | 197.0% | $-10,923 (vs do-nothing $-10,910) |
| $26.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.71 | 21/25 | $5,985 | $5,996 | 67% | 77% | +$1,981 | -$10,197 | 184.6% | $-10,231 (vs do-nothing $-10,218) |
| $26 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.15 | 19/25 | $5,959 | $5,975 | 66% | 77% | +$1,446 | -$11,240 | 203.4% | $-11,272 (vs do-nothing $-11,259) |
| $26 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.90 | 19/25 | $6,017 | $6,033 | 64% | 77% | +$1,863 | -$9,815 | 177.6% | $-9,847 (vs do-nothing $-9,834) |
| $25.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.34 | 17/25 | $6,213 | $6,235 | 62% | 76% | +$1,364 | -$10,584 | 191.6% | $-10,614 (vs do-nothing $-10,601) |
| $25.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.09 | 17/25 | $5,922 | $5,943 | 61% | 74% | +$1,677 | -$9,309 | 168.5% | $-9,339 (vs do-nothing $-9,326) |
| $25 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.20 | 7/25 | $6,300 | $6,349 | 59% | 76% | +$2,830 | -$4,806 | 87.0% | $-4,826 (vs do-nothing $-4,813) |
| $25 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.29 | 16/25 | $6,107 | $6,131 | 58% | 73% | +$1,561 | -$9,241 | 167.3% | $-9,270 (vs do-nothing $-9,257) |
| $25 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.25 | 18/25 | $6,136 | $6,155 | 57% | 72% | +$15 | -$12,269 | 222.1% | $-12,300 (vs do-nothing $-12,287) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $24.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.47 | 15/25 | $6,175 | $6,202 | 54% | 71% | +$1,490 | -$9,144 | 165.5% | $-9,172 (vs do-nothing $-9,159) |
| $24.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.81 | 12/25 | $5,924 | $5,959 | 53% | 71% | +$1,095 | -$8,107 | 146.7% | $-8,132 (vs do-nothing $-8,119) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.