25 of 125 contracts (2,500 sh uncapped) | BE SS: $39.71 | CC-SS: $32.96 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $55,525 | (ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $10,466/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $1,010/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-18,650 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100x $30C 17 Jul 2026 | U10001299 | $0.21 | $2,054 | 2026-07-11 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 4d | 18 × $26 | 75% | $5,400 | $553 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 11d | 20 × $26 | 69% | $5,455 | $-2,513 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $29 | 17 Jul | 4d | 20.2% | 93% | 14% | $250 | $1,875 | -$3,525 | $9,656 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $29 20.2% OTM over spot $24.14 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.13 mid) = $250 credit for the 4d cycle → $1,875/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $29) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $29.13) 93% EV / mo +$769 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.2 mo [0.6-2.8] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.3 mo) · 68% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 67% without) · ~3.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,760 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,571 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $34 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.60/sh now → $1.13 mid-life (likely $0.93–$1.79) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 214 simulated challenges: the $29 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $30 (overshoots $0.98). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $29 is $4 below CC-SS $32.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $29.13 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $29)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $35.32 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $32.96, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,538 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $29): -$9,656 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,769 (+$8,881 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-87 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,681, the opportunity cost of earning $1,875/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.86 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$14,400, position total $-10,527 (+$8,122 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 21 × $27 | 17 Jul | 4d | 11.9% | 83% | 35% | $483 | $3,622 | -$1,778 | $12,038 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 21 × $27 11.9% OTM over spot $24.14 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.30 mid) = $483 credit for the 4d cycle → $3,622/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $27.30) 85% EV / mo +$340 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.1 mo [0.6-2.5] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.2 mo) · 71% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 64% without) · ~7.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,767 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 23% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,651 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $32 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 21 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.44/sh now → $1.02 mid-life (likely $1.02–$1.70) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.23/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.79/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 690 simulated challenges: the $27 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $28 (overshoots $0.87). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27 is $6 below CC-SS $32.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.23 collected) or spot ≥ $27.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $27)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $35.32 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $32.96, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,538 − CC assignment net of premium (21 × $27): -$12,038 + Conservative CC premium (4 × $40): +$4 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,146 (+$6,503 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-87 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,059, the opportunity cost of earning $3,622/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.86 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$16,023, position total $-12,146 (+$6,503 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 18 × $26 | 17 Jul | 4d | 7.7% | 75% | 37% | $720 | $5,400 | — | $11,813 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $26 7.7% OTM over spot $24.14 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.50 mid) = $720 credit for the 4d cycle → $5,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26) 75% Breach risk 25% POP (stays ≤ $26.50) 79% EV / mo +$338 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.7-3.3] median · 69% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 61% without) · ~12.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,302 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 37% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,011 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $32 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.36/sh now → $0.96 mid-life (likely $1.09–$1.81) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.56/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,120 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $27 (overshoots $0.91). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $26 is $7 below CC-SS $32.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.40 collected) or spot ≥ $26.50 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $35.32 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $32.96, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,538 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $26): -$11,813 + Conservative CC premium (7 × $40): +$7 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,918 (+$6,732 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-87 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,831, the opportunity cost of earning $5,400/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.86 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$15,228, position total $-11,348 (+$7,301 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 19 × $25 | 17 Jul | 4d | 3.6% | 64% | 76% | $1,444 | $10,830 | +$5,430 | $13,685 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $25 3.6% OTM over spot $24.14 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.80 mid) = $1,444 credit for the 4d cycle → $10,830/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25) 64% Breach risk 36% POP (stays ≤ $25.80) 73% EV / mo +$1,609 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.6-2.8] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.4 mo) · 73% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without) · ~19.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,748 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 54% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$283 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $33 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.28/sh now → $0.91 mid-life (likely $1.16–$1.94) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.76/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.15/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,616 simulated challenges: the $25 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $26 (overshoots $0.97). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $25 is $8 below CC-SS $32.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.19/sh (~25% of the $0.76 collected) or spot ≥ $25.80 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $25)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $35.32 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $32.96, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,538 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $25): -$13,685 + Conservative CC premium (6 × $40): +$6 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,791 (+$4,859 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-87 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,704, the opportunity cost of earning $10,830/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.86 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$17,290, position total $-13,411 (+$5,238 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $30 | 24 Jul | 11d | 24.3% | 90% | 21% | $300 | $818 | -$4,636 | $7,106 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $30 24.3% OTM over spot $24.14 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.61 mid) = $300 credit for the 11d cycle → $818/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $30) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $30.61) 92% EV / mo $-197 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.7-3.5] median · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 58% without) · ~2.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,270 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$8,219 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $30 @ 68% POP 54% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.81/sh now → $3.41 mid-life (likely $2.92–$4.82) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.29/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 453 simulated challenges: the $30 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 11, at $31 (overshoots $1.06). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $30 is $3 below CC-SS $32.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.12 collected) or spot ≥ $30.61 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $30)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $35.32 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $32.96, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,538 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $30): -$7,106 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,219 (+$11,431 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-87 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,131, the opportunity cost of earning $818/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.86 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,850, position total $-7,977 (+$10,672 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 22 × $27.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 13.9% | 79% | 44% | $1,276 | $3,480 | -$1,975 | $10,742 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 22 × $27.50 13.9% OTM over spot $24.14 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.84 mid) = $1,276 credit for the 11d cycle → $3,480/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27.50) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $28.34) 84% EV / mo +$853 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.7-3.1] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.4 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 67% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 58% without) · ~4.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,030 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 36% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,294 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $28 @ 68% POP 54% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 22 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.22/sh now → $2.99 mid-life (likely $3.13–$4.77) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.58/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.41/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,065 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $28 (overshoots $0.92). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27.50 is $5 below CC-SS $32.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.58 collected) or spot ≥ $28.34 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $35.32 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $32.96, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,538 − CC assignment net of premium (22 × $27.50): -$10,742 + Conservative CC premium (3 × $40): +$3 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,851 (+$7,799 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-87 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,764, the opportunity cost of earning $3,480/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.86 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$14,916, position total $-11,040 (+$7,609 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 20 × $26 | 24 Jul | 11d | 7.7% | 69% | 53% | $2,000 | $5,455 | — | $11,925 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $26 7.7% OTM over spot $24.14 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $1.20 mid) = $2,000 credit for the 11d cycle → $5,455/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26) 69% Breach risk 31% POP (stays ≤ $27.20) 77% EV / mo +$1,161 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.7-3.0] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.3 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 68% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without) · ~7.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,259 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 53% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,491 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $26 @ 69% POP 57% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.88/sh now → $2.75 mid-life (likely $3.37–$4.59) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.75/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,596 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 11, at $27 (overshoots $0.86). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $26 is $7 below CC-SS $32.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.25/sh (~25% of the $1.00 collected) or spot ≥ $27.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $35.32 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $32.96, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,538 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $26): -$11,925 + Conservative CC premium (5 × $40): +$5 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,032 (+$6,618 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-87 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,945, the opportunity cost of earning $5,455/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.86 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$15,720, position total $-11,842 (+$6,807 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 23 × $24 | 24 Jul | 11d | -0.6% | 52% | 99+% | $3,841 | $10,475 | +$5,021 | $16,773 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 23 × $24 0.6% ITM over spot $24.14 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $2.63 mid) = $3,841 credit for the 11d cycle → $10,475/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $24) 52% Breach risk 48% POP (stays ≤ $26.63) 74% EV / mo +$673 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,768 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $27 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 23 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.45/sh now → $2.44 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.67/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.77/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $24 is $9 below CC-SS $32.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.42/sh (~25% of the $1.67 collected) or spot ≥ $26.63 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $24)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $35.32 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $32.96, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,538 − CC assignment net of premium (23 × $24): -$16,773 + Conservative CC premium (2 × $40): +$2 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,883 (+$1,767 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-87 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,796, the opportunity cost of earning $10,475/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.86 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$21,137, position total $-17,262 (+$1,387 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 13 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.840 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$18,538 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-87
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $26 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.40 | 18/25 | $5,400 | $5,419 | 75% | 79% | +$338 | -$11,813 | 213.8% | $-11,918 (vs do-nothing $-11,831) |
| $26 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.00 | 20/25 | $5,455 | $5,468 | 69% | 77% | +$1,161 | -$11,925 | 215.8% | $-12,032 (vs do-nothing $-11,945) |
| $26 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.27 | 25/25 | $5,292 | $5,292 | 67% | 76% | +$252 | -$14,231 | 257.6% | $-14,344 (vs do-nothing $-14,256) |
| $25.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.90 | 22/25 | $5,400 | $5,408 | 65% | 76% | $-267 | -$14,438 | 261.3% | $-14,547 (vs do-nothing $-14,460) |
| $25.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.45 | 22/25 | $5,317 | $5,325 | 64% | 75% | +$242 | -$13,228 | 239.4% | $-13,337 (vs do-nothing $-13,250) |
| $25 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.76 | 10/25 | $5,700 | $5,741 | 64% | 73% | +$847 | -$7,203 | 130.4% | $-7,300 (vs do-nothing $-7,213) |
| $25 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.20 | 16/25 | $5,236 | $5,261 | 61% | 73% | +$326 | -$10,820 | 195.8% | $-10,923 (vs do-nothing $-10,836) |
| $25 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.66 | 19/25 | $5,257 | $5,273 | 61% | 73% | +$265 | -$11,975 | 216.7% | $-12,081 (vs do-nothing $-11,994) |
| $24.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.00 | 16/25 | $5,333 | $5,358 | 57% | 72% | +$568 | -$10,340 | 187.2% | $-10,443 (vs do-nothing $-10,356) |
| $24.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.30 | 15/25 | $5,318 | $5,345 | 57% | 72% | $-126 | -$10,744 | 194.5% | $-10,846 (vs do-nothing $-10,759) |
| $24 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.10 | 15/25 | $5,250 | $5,277 | 54% | 70% | +$208 | -$10,294 | 186.3% | $-10,396 (vs do-nothing $-10,309) |
| $24 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.67 | 12/25 | $5,465 | $5,501 | 52% | 74% | +$351 | -$8,751 | 158.4% | $-8,850 (vs do-nothing $-8,763) |
| $24 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.86 | 9/25 | $5,805 | $5,849 | 51% | 65% | $-1,351 | -$7,292 | 132.0% | $-7,388 (vs do-nothing $-7,301) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.