25 of 125 contracts (2,500 sh uncapped) | BE SS: $39.71 | CC-SS: $33.14 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $55,525 | (ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $7,941/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $944/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-20,650 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100x $30C 17 Jul 2026 | U10001299 | $0.21 | $2,054 | 2026-07-11 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 3d | 16 × $26 | 86% | $4,000 | $1,576 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 10d | 25 × $26.50 | 80% | $3,975 | $229 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 33% normal | 19 × $27 | 17 Jul | 3d | 15.6% | 92% | 15% | $266 | $2,660 | -$1,340 | $11,407 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $27 15.6% OTM over spot $23.35 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.16 mid) = $266 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,660/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $27.16) 93% EV / mo +$1,741 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.6-3.2] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.4 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 64% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 55% without) · ~4.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,470 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,621 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $32 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.40/sh now → $0.99 mid-life (likely $0.89–$1.66) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.85/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 262 simulated challenges: the $27 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $28 (overshoots $0.82). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27 is $6 below CC-SS $33.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.14 collected) or spot ≥ $27.16 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $27)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $35.44 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.14, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,395 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $27): -$11,407 + Conservative CC premium (6 × $39): +$6 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,656 (+$8,994 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-230 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,426, the opportunity cost of earning $2,660/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.85 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$14,649, position total $-11,344 (+$9,306 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $27 | 17 Jul | 3d | 15.6% | 92% | 15% | $350 | $3,500 | -$500 | $15,009 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $27 15.6% OTM over spot $23.35 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.16 mid) = $350 credit for the 3d cycle → $3,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $27.16) 93% EV / mo +$2,291 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.8-3.0] median · 64% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without) · ~4.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,318 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,133 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $32 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.40/sh now → $0.99 mid-life (likely $0.90–$1.61) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.85/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 261 simulated challenges: the $27 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $28 (overshoots $0.79). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27 is $6 below CC-SS $33.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.14 collected) or spot ≥ $27.16 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $27)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $35.44 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.14, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,395 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $27): -$15,009 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,264 (+$5,386 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-230 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,034, the opportunity cost of earning $3,500/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.85 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$19,275, position total $-15,976 (+$4,674 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 16 × $26 | 17 Jul | 3d | 11.3% | 86% | 16% | $400 | $4,000 | — | $11,030 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 16 × $26 11.3% OTM over spot $23.35 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.30 mid) = $400 credit for the 3d cycle → $4,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $26.30) 89% EV / mo +$2,187 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.8-2.6] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.5 mo) · 64% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 56% without) · ~8.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,173 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 16% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,103 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $31 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 16 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.33/sh now → $0.94 mid-life (likely $0.91–$1.79) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.69/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 484 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $27 (overshoots $0.89). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $26 is $7 below CC-SS $33.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $26.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $35.44 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.14, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,395 − CC assignment net of premium (16 × $26): -$11,030 + Conservative CC premium (9 × $39): +$9 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,276 (+$9,374 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-230 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,046, the opportunity cost of earning $4,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.85 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$13,760, position total $-10,452 (+$10,198 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 19 × $25 | 17 Jul | 3d | 7.1% | 77% | 48% | $798 | $7,980 | +$3,980 | $14,675 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $25 7.1% OTM over spot $23.35 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.48 mid) = $798 credit for the 3d cycle → $7,980/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $25.48) 82% EV / mo +$3,149 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.7-3.1] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.6 mo) · 70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 58% without) · ~14.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $11,536 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$886 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $32 @ 89% POP 88% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.25/sh now → $0.89 mid-life (likely $1.03–$1.79) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.42/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.47/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 960 simulated challenges: the $25 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $26 (overshoots $0.87). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $25 is $8 below CC-SS $33.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.42 collected) or spot ≥ $25.48 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $25)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $35.44 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.14, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,395 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $25): -$14,675 + Conservative CC premium (6 × $39): +$6 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,924 (+$5,726 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-230 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,694, the opportunity cost of earning $7,980/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.85 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$17,917, position total $-14,612 (+$6,038 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $29 | 24 Jul | 10d | 24.2% | 91% | 19% | $625 | $1,875 | -$2,100 | $9,734 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $29 24.2% OTM over spot $23.35 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.36 mid) = $625 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,875/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $29) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $29.36) 92% EV / mo +$996 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.8-3.7] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.5 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 61% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without) · ~2.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,366 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,905 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $31 @ 73% POP 64% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.56/sh now → $1.81 mid-life (likely $1.38–$2.42) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.56/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 425 simulated challenges: the $29 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $30 (overshoots $0.89). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $29 is $4 below CC-SS $33.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $29.36 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $29)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $35.44 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.14, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,395 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $29): -$9,734 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,989 (+$10,661 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-230 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,759, the opportunity cost of earning $1,875/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.85 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$14,000, position total $-10,701 (+$9,949 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 20 × $27 | 24 Jul | 10d | 15.6% | 83% | 36% | $880 | $2,640 | -$1,335 | $11,407 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $27 15.6% OTM over spot $23.35 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.56 mid) = $880 credit for the 10d cycle → $2,640/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $27.56) 86% EV / mo +$867 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.8-3.6] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.8 mo) · 61% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 56% without) · ~4.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,179 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 27% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,366 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $29 @ 76% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.29/sh now → $1.62 mid-life (likely $1.58–$2.47) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.44/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 821 simulated challenges: the $27 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $28 (overshoots $0.85). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27 is $6 below CC-SS $33.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.44 collected) or spot ≥ $27.56 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $27)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $35.44 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.14, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,395 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $27): -$11,407 + Conservative CC premium (5 × $39): +$5 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,657 (+$8,993 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-230 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,427, the opportunity cost of earning $2,640/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.85 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$14,820, position total $-11,516 (+$9,134 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 25 × $26.50 | 24 Jul | 10d | 13.5% | 80% | 32% | $1,325 | $3,975 | — | $15,284 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $26.50 13.5% OTM over spot $23.35 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.66 mid) = $1,325 credit for the 10d cycle → $3,975/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26.50) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $27.16) 84% EV / mo +$1,203 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.9 mo [0.9-3.4] median · 64% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without) · ~5.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,312 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,619 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $29 @ 76% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.23/sh now → $1.58 mid-life (likely $1.64–$2.49) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.53/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.05/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 950 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $27 (overshoots $0.83). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $26.50 is $7 below CC-SS $33.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.13/sh (~25% of the $0.53 collected) or spot ≥ $27.16 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $35.44 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.14, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,395 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $26.50): -$15,284 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,539 (+$5,111 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-230 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,309, the opportunity cost of earning $3,975/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.85 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$19,550, position total $-16,251 (+$4,399 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 23 × $24 | 24 Jul | 10d | 2.8% | 60% | 86% | $2,714 | $8,142 | +$4,167 | $18,317 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 23 × $24 2.8% OTM over spot $23.35 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $1.36 mid) = $2,714 credit for the 10d cycle → $8,142/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $24) 60% Breach risk 40% POP (stays ≤ $25.36) 72% EV / mo +$965 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [1.1-3.7] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.2 mo) · 66% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 49% without) · ~15.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $10,436 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 71% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$409 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $30 @ 91% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 23 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.92/sh now → $1.36 mid-life (likely $1.85–$2.52) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.18/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,125 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $25 (overshoots $0.80). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $24 is $9 below CC-SS $33.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.29/sh (~25% of the $1.18 collected) or spot ≥ $25.36 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $24)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $35.44 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.14, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,395 − CC assignment net of premium (23 × $24): -$18,317 + Conservative CC premium (2 × $39): +$2 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,569 (+$2,081 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-230 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,340, the opportunity cost of earning $8,142/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.85 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$22,241, position total $-18,940 (+$1,710 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 18 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.833 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$20,395 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-230
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $26 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.25 | 16/25 | $4,000 | $4,016 | 86% | 89% | +$2,187 | -$11,030 | 199.6% | $-11,276 (vs do-nothing $-11,046) |
| $26.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.53 | 25/25 | $3,975 | $3,975 | 80% | 84% | +$1,203 | -$15,284 | 276.6% | $-15,539 (vs do-nothing $-15,309) |
| $25 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.42 | 10/25 | $4,200 | $4,226 | 77% | 82% | +$1,657 | -$7,724 | 139.8% | $-7,963 (vs do-nothing $-7,734) |
| $26 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.58 | 23/25 | $4,002 | $4,006 | 77% | 81% | +$827 | -$15,097 | 273.2% | $-15,349 (vs do-nothing $-15,120) |
| $25.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.70 | 19/25 | $3,990 | $4,001 | 73% | 79% | +$743 | -$13,193 | 238.8% | $-13,442 (vs do-nothing $-13,212) |
| $25.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.15 | 20/25 | $4,059 | $4,068 | 70% | 77% | +$736 | -$12,987 | 235.1% | $-13,237 (vs do-nothing $-13,007) |
| $25 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.84 | 16/25 | $4,032 | $4,048 | 69% | 77% | +$667 | -$11,686 | 211.5% | $-11,932 (vs do-nothing $-11,702) |
| $25 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.29 | 18/25 | $4,098 | $4,110 | 66% | 75% | +$623 | -$12,337 | 223.3% | $-12,584 (vs do-nothing $-12,355) |
| $24.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.00 | 14/25 | $4,200 | $4,219 | 64% | 74% | +$600 | -$10,701 | 193.7% | $-10,945 (vs do-nothing $-10,715) |
| $24.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.41 | 16/25 | $3,981 | $3,997 | 63% | 73% | +$409 | -$11,574 | 209.5% | $-11,820 (vs do-nothing $-11,590) |
| $24 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.71 | 6/25 | $4,260 | $4,294 | 63% | 74% | +$1,103 | -$5,060 | 91.6% | $-5,296 (vs do-nothing $-5,066) |
| $24 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.18 | 12/25 | $4,248 | $4,271 | 60% | 72% | +$503 | -$9,556 | 173.0% | $-9,798 (vs do-nothing $-9,568) |
| $24 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.55 | 15/25 | $4,103 | $4,121 | 59% | 71% | +$246 | -$11,391 | 206.2% | $-11,635 (vs do-nothing $-11,406) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $23.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.80 | 13/25 | $4,129 | $4,151 | 56% | 69% | +$262 | -$10,197 | 184.6% | $-10,439 (vs do-nothing $-10,210) |
| $23.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.41 | 10/25 | $4,230 | $4,256 | 55% | 70% | +$473 | -$8,234 | 149.0% | $-8,473 (vs do-nothing $-8,244) |
| $23.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.92 | 5/25 | $4,600 | $4,635 | 55% | 70% | +$959 | -$4,362 | 78.9% | $-4,596 (vs do-nothing $-4,367) |
| $23 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.06 | 11/25 | $3,999 | $4,024 | 52% | 68% | +$266 | -$8,892 | 160.9% | $-9,133 (vs do-nothing $-8,903) |
| $23 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.66 | 8/25 | $3,984 | $4,014 | 50% | 67% | +$396 | -$6,787 | 122.8% | $-7,025 (vs do-nothing $-6,795) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.