25 of 125 contracts (2,500 sh uncapped) | BE SS: $39.71 | CC-SS: $33.11 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $55,525 | (ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $7,522/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $944/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-18,963 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100x $30C 17 Jul 2026 | U10001299 | $0.21 | $2,054 | 2026-07-11 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 3d | 16 × $26 | 80% | $3,840 | $688 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 10d | 24 × $26.50 | 74% | $3,888 | $-1,272 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $28 | 17 Jul | 3d | 16.0% | 92% | 17% | $100 | $1,000 | -$2,840 | $12,683 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $28 16.0% OTM over spot $24.15 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.19 mid) = $100 credit for the 3d cycle → $1,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $28) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $28.19) 93% EV / mo $-497 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.1 mo [0.6-2.5] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.2 mo) · 61% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 60% without) · ~4.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,142 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,946 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $32 @ 80% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.16/sh now → $0.82 mid-life (likely $0.70–$1.33) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.04/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.78/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 173 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 3, at $29 (overshoots $0.82). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $28 is $5 below CC-SS $33.11: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.04 collected) or spot ≥ $28.19 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $35.38 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.11, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,963 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,878 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $28): -$12,683 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,767 (+$6,195 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-35 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,733, the opportunity cost of earning $1,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.85 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$17,025, position total $-13,453 (+$5,509 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 23 × $27 | 17 Jul | 3d | 11.8% | 89% | 22% | $253 | $2,530 | -$1,310 | $13,807 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 23 × $27 11.8% OTM over spot $24.15 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.29 mid) = $253 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,530/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27) 89% Breach risk 11% POP (stays ≤ $27.30) 91% EV / mo +$900 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.8-3.1] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.5 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 52% without) · ~6.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,580 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,528 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $31 @ 81% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 23 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.09/sh now → $0.77 mid-life (likely $0.71–$1.38) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.66/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 389 simulated challenges: the $27 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $28 (overshoots $0.77). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27 is $6 below CC-SS $33.11: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.11 collected) or spot ≥ $27.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $27)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $35.38 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.11, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,963 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,878 − CC assignment net of premium (23 × $27): -$13,807 + Conservative CC premium (2 × $36): +$4 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,888 (+$5,075 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-35 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,853, the opportunity cost of earning $2,530/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.85 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$17,802, position total $-14,226 (+$4,736 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 16 × $26 | 17 Jul | 3d | 7.7% | 80% | 27% | $384 | $3,840 | — | $10,997 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 16 × $26 7.7% OTM over spot $24.15 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.42 mid) = $384 credit for the 3d cycle → $3,840/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $26.42) 85% EV / mo +$889 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.8-3.0] median · 63% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without) · ~13.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,082 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 27% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$786 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $31 @ 83% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 16 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.03/sh now → $0.73 mid-life (likely $0.78–$1.38) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.24/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.49/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 808 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $27 (overshoots $0.76). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $26 is $7 below CC-SS $33.11: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.24 collected) or spot ≥ $26.42 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $35.38 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.11, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,963 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,878 − CC assignment net of premium (16 × $26): -$10,997 + Conservative CC premium (9 × $36): +$18 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,064 (+$7,899 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-35 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,029, the opportunity cost of earning $3,840/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.85 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$13,776, position total $-10,186 (+$8,776 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 16 × $25 | 17 Jul | 3d | 3.5% | 66% | 70% | $768 | $7,680 | +$3,840 | $12,213 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 16 × $25 3.5% OTM over spot $24.15 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.52 mid) = $768 credit for the 3d cycle → $7,680/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25) 66% Breach risk 34% POP (stays ≤ $25.52) 74% EV / mo +$976 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.8-2.9] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.6 mo) · 75% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 63% without) · ~20.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,633 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 46% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$335 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $31 @ 88% POP 88% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 16 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.98/sh now → $0.69 mid-life (likely $0.84–$1.54) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.48/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.21/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,375 simulated challenges: the $25 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $26 (overshoots $0.86). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $25 is $8 below CC-SS $33.11: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.48 collected) or spot ≥ $25.52 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $25)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $35.38 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.11, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,963 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,878 − CC assignment net of premium (16 × $25): -$12,213 + Conservative CC premium (9 × $36): +$18 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,280 (+$6,683 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-35 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,245, the opportunity cost of earning $7,680/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.85 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$14,992, position total $-11,402 (+$7,560 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $30 | 24 Jul | 10d | 24.2% | 91% | 18% | $375 | $1,125 | -$2,763 | $7,408 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $30 24.2% OTM over spot $24.15 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.29 mid) = $375 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,125/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $30) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $30.29) 92% EV / mo +$292 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.7-2.9] median · 55% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without) · ~1.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,358 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,484 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $30 @ 68% POP 56% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.75/sh now → $1.94 mid-life (likely $1.68–$2.58) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.79/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 412 simulated challenges: the $30 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $31 (overshoots $0.92). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $30 is $3 below CC-SS $33.11: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $30.29 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $30)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $35.38 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.11, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,963 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,878 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $30): -$7,408 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,492 (+$11,470 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-35 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,458, the opportunity cost of earning $1,125/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.85 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,750, position total $-8,178 (+$10,784 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 24 × $27.50 | 24 Jul | 10d | 13.9% | 80% | 41% | $840 | $2,520 | -$1,368 | $12,631 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 24 × $27.50 13.9% OTM over spot $24.15 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.56 mid) = $840 credit for the 10d cycle → $2,520/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27.50) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $28.07) 83% EV / mo $-137 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.8-3.3] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.7 mo) · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 56% without) · ~5.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,428 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 31% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,242 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $28 @ 69% POP 60% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 24 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.40/sh now → $1.70 mid-life (likely $1.77–$2.63) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.35/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 929 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $28 (overshoots $0.83). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27.50 is $6 below CC-SS $33.11: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.35 collected) or spot ≥ $28.07 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $35.38 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.11, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,963 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,878 − CC assignment net of premium (24 × $27.50): -$12,631 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $36): +$2 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,714 (+$6,248 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-35 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,679, the opportunity cost of earning $2,520/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.85 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$16,800, position total $-13,226 (+$5,736 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 24 × $26.50 | 24 Jul | 10d | 9.8% | 74% | 45% | $1,296 | $3,888 | — | $14,575 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 24 × $26.50 9.8% OTM over spot $24.15 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.78 mid) = $1,296 credit for the 10d cycle → $3,888/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26.50) 74% Breach risk 26% POP (stays ≤ $27.28) 79% EV / mo $-200 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.8-3.3] median · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without) · ~7.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,955 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 45% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,563 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $28 @ 72% POP 64% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 24 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.27/sh now → $1.61 mid-life (likely $1.85–$2.65) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.54/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.07/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,337 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $27 (overshoots $0.83). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $26.50 is $7 below CC-SS $33.11: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.54 collected) or spot ≥ $27.28 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $35.38 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.11, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,963 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,878 − CC assignment net of premium (24 × $26.50): -$14,575 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $36): +$2 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,658 (+$4,304 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-35 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,623, the opportunity cost of earning $3,888/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.85 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$18,744, position total $-15,170 (+$3,792 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 24 × $25 | 24 Jul | 10d | 3.5% | 61% | 82% | $2,592 | $7,776 | +$3,888 | $16,879 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 24 × $25 3.5% OTM over spot $24.15 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $1.36 mid) = $2,592 credit for the 10d cycle → $7,776/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25) 61% Breach risk 39% POP (stays ≤ $26.36) 73% EV / mo +$429 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.6-3.2] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.7 mo) · 71% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 61% without) · ~13.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,785 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 68% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$943 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $29 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 24 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.08/sh now → $1.47 mid-life (likely $1.99–$2.71) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.39/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,036 simulated challenges: the $25 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $26 (overshoots $0.84). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $25 is $8 below CC-SS $33.11: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.27/sh (~25% of the $1.08 collected) or spot ≥ $26.36 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $25)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $35.38 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.11, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,963 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,878 − CC assignment net of premium (24 × $25): -$16,879 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $36): +$2 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,962 (+$2,000 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-35 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,927, the opportunity cost of earning $7,776/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.85 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$21,048, position total $-17,474 (+$1,488 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 16 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.842 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$18,878 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-35
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $26 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.24 | 16/25 | $3,840 | $3,872 | 80% | 85% | +$889 | -$10,997 | 199.0% | $-11,064 (vs do-nothing $-11,029) |
| $26.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.54 | 24/25 | $3,888 | $3,892 | 74% | 79% | $-200 | -$14,575 | 263.8% | $-14,658 (vs do-nothing $-14,623) |
| $27 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.90 | 24/25 | $3,812 | $3,815 | 73% | 79% | +$385 | -$12,511 | 226.5% | $-12,594 (vs do-nothing $-12,559) |
| $26.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.86 | 25/25 | $3,794 | $3,794 | 70% | 77% | $-354 | -$14,383 | 260.3% | $-14,467 (vs do-nothing $-14,433) |
| $26 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.70 | 18/25 | $3,780 | $3,805 | 70% | 77% | +$31 | -$11,544 | 208.9% | $-11,614 (vs do-nothing $-11,580) |
| $26 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.05 | 21/25 | $3,891 | $3,905 | 67% | 75% | $-143 | -$12,732 | 230.5% | $-12,809 (vs do-nothing $-12,774) |
| $25 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.48 | 8/25 | $3,840 | $3,900 | 66% | 74% | +$488 | -$6,106 | 110.5% | $-6,157 (vs do-nothing $-6,122) |
| $25.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.89 | 15/25 | $4,005 | $4,040 | 66% | 75% | +$203 | -$10,085 | 182.5% | $-10,149 (vs do-nothing $-10,115) |
| $25.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.26 | 17/25 | $3,780 | $3,808 | 64% | 73% | +$14 | -$10,800 | 195.5% | $-10,869 (vs do-nothing $-10,834) |
| $25 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.08 | 12/25 | $3,888 | $3,934 | 61% | 73% | +$215 | -$8,440 | 152.8% | $-8,498 (vs do-nothing $-8,464) |
| $25 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.41 | 16/25 | $3,981 | $4,013 | 61% | 72% | $-89 | -$10,725 | 194.1% | $-10,792 (vs do-nothing $-10,757) |
| $24.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.65 | 13/25 | $3,785 | $3,828 | 57% | 70% | +$4 | -$9,052 | 163.8% | $-9,113 (vs do-nothing $-9,078) |
| $24.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.09 | 12/25 | $3,924 | $3,970 | 57% | 70% | $-478 | -$9,028 | 163.4% | $-9,086 (vs do-nothing $-9,052) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $24 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.85 | 12/25 | $3,918 | $3,964 | 53% | 69% | $-56 | -$8,716 | 157.7% | $-8,774 (vs do-nothing $-8,740) |
| $24 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.48 | 9/25 | $3,996 | $4,052 | 52% | 68% | +$71 | -$6,870 | 124.3% | $-6,922 (vs do-nothing $-6,888) |
| $24 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.70 | 6/25 | $4,200 | $4,267 | 49% | 64% | $-789 | -$5,048 | 91.4% | $-5,095 (vs do-nothing $-5,060) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.