125 contracts (12,500 sh) | BE SS: $39.71 | CC-SS: $33.67 (banked floor $33.51) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $277,625 | (ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 12500 |
| Normal income ref | $48,516/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $4,730/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-103,250 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 125 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 2d | 125 × $27 | 94% | $24,375 | $13,348 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 9d | 108 × $26.50 | 76% | $24,480 | $-594 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 33% normal | 119 × $27.50 | 17 Jul | 2d | 15.0% | 97% | 7% | $1,071 | $16,065 | -$8,310 | $72,337 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 119 × $27.50 15.0% OTM over spot $23.92 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.11 mid) = $1,071 credit for the 2d cycle → $16,065/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27.50) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $27.61) 97% EV / mo +$14,127 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.7-3.2] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.7 mo) · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without) · ~2.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $34,372 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 3% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$10,724 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $32 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 119 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.40/sh now → $0.99 mid-life (likely $0.93–$1.95) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.90/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 103 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $28 (overshoots $0.78). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27.50 is $6 below CC-SS $33.67: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot ≥ $27.61 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $34.67 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.67, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-103,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$102,362 − CC assignment net of premium (119 × $27.50): -$72,337 + Conservative CC premium (6 × $39): +$6 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-73,219 (+$30,031 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-763 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-72,456, the opportunity cost of earning $16,065/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.85 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$86,394, position total $-74,873 (+$28,377 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 125 × $27 | 17 Jul | 2d | 12.9% | 94% | 6% | $1,625 | $24,375 | — | $81,734 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 × $27 12.9% OTM over spot $23.92 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.15 mid) = $1,625 credit for the 2d cycle → $24,375/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $27.15) 95% EV / mo +$20,172 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.8-3.4] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.7 mo) · 69% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 59% without) · ~4.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $50,230 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$10,427 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $32 @ 83% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.36/sh now → $0.96 mid-life (likely $1.02–$1.97) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.83/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 183 simulated challenges: the $27 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $28 (overshoots $0.76). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27 is $7 below CC-SS $33.67: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.13 collected) or spot ≥ $27.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $27)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $34.67 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.67, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-103,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$102,362 − CC assignment net of premium (125 × $27): -$81,734 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-82,622 (+$20,628 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-763 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-81,859, the opportunity cost of earning $24,375/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.85 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$96,500, position total $-84,985 (+$18,265 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 125 × $26 | 17 Jul | 2d | 8.7% | 87% | 27% | $3,250 | $48,750 | +$24,375 | $92,609 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 × $26 8.7% OTM over spot $23.92 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.29 mid) = $3,250 credit for the 2d cycle → $48,750/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $26.29) 89% EV / mo +$33,343 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.7-2.5] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.5 mo) · 79% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without) · ~8.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $62,510 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$8,138 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $32 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.29/sh now → $0.91 mid-life (likely $1.01–$1.99) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.65/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 423 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $27 (overshoots $0.79). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $26 is $8 below CC-SS $33.67: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.26 collected) or spot ≥ $26.29 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $34.67 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.67, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-103,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$102,362 − CC assignment net of premium (125 × $26): -$92,609 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-93,497 (+$9,753 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-763 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-92,734, the opportunity cost of earning $48,750/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.85 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$107,375, position total $-95,860 (+$7,390 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 125 × $29.50 | 24 Jul | 9d | 23.3% | 92% | 17% | $2,375 | $7,917 | -$16,563 | $49,734 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 × $29.50 23.3% OTM over spot $23.92 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.27 mid) = $2,375 credit for the 9d cycle → $7,917/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $29.50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $29.77) 93% EV / mo +$3,820 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.9-3.4] median · 58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 55% without) · ~2.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $23,048 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$22,682 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $31 @ 73% POP 64% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.83/sh now → $2.00 mid-life (likely $1.67–$2.81) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.19/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.81/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 392 simulated challenges: the $30 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $31 (overshoots $1.00). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $29.50 is $4 below CC-SS $33.67: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.19 collected) or spot ≥ $29.77 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $30)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $34.67 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.67, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-103,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$102,362 − CC assignment net of premium (125 × $29.50): -$49,734 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-50,622 (+$52,628 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-763 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-49,859, the opportunity cost of earning $7,917/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.85 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$64,500, position total $-52,985 (+$50,265 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 124 × $28 | 24 Jul | 9d | 17.1% | 85% | 31% | $4,836 | $16,120 | -$8,360 | $65,456 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 124 × $28 17.1% OTM over spot $23.92 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.48 mid) = $4,836 credit for the 9d cycle → $16,120/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $28) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $28.48) 87% EV / mo +$6,222 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.7-3.2] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.4 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 64% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without) · ~3.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $36,682 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$18,125 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $30 @ 74% POP 64% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 124 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.62/sh now → $1.85 mid-life (likely $1.75–$2.75) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.46/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 712 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $29 (overshoots $0.89). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $28 is $6 below CC-SS $33.67: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.39 collected) or spot ≥ $28.48 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $34.67 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.67, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-103,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$102,362 − CC assignment net of premium (124 × $28): -$65,456 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $39): +$1 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-66,344 (+$36,906 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-763 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-65,580, the opportunity cost of earning $16,120/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.85 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$80,104, position total $-68,588 (+$34,662 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 108 × $26.50 | 24 Jul | 9d | 10.8% | 76% | 41% | $7,344 | $24,480 | — | $70,078 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 108 × $26.50 10.8% OTM over spot $23.92 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.72 mid) = $7,344 credit for the 9d cycle → $24,480/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26.50) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $27.22) 81% EV / mo +$7,163 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.6-3.0] median · 66% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without) · ~6.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $37,822 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 41% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$11,063 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $29 @ 77% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 108 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.41/sh now → $1.70 mid-life (likely $1.84–$2.81) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.68/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.02/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,226 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 9, at $27 (overshoots $0.85). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $26.50 is $7 below CC-SS $33.67: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.68 collected) or spot ≥ $27.22 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $34.67 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.67, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-103,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$102,362 − CC assignment net of premium (108 × $26.50): -$70,078 + Conservative CC premium (17 × $39): +$17 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-70,950 (+$32,300 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-763 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-70,186, the opportunity cost of earning $24,480/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.85 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$82,836, position total $-71,304 (+$31,946 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 112 × $24.50 | 24 Jul | 9d | 2.4% | 59% | 87% | $14,672 | $48,907 | +$24,427 | $88,018 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 112 × $24.50 2.4% OTM over spot $23.92 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $1.54 mid) = $14,672 credit for the 9d cycle → $48,907/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $24.50) 59% Breach risk 41% POP (stays ≤ $26.04) 72% EV / mo +$8,349 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.6-3.3] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.5 mo) · 70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 55% without) · ~15.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $51,032 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 71% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,310 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $31 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 112 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.14/sh now → $1.52 mid-life (likely $2.07–$2.90) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.31/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.21/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,117 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $25 (overshoots $0.89). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $24.50 is $9 below CC-SS $33.67: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.33/sh (~25% of the $1.31 collected) or spot ≥ $26.04 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $24)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $34.67 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.67, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-103,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$102,362 − CC assignment net of premium (112 × $24.50): -$88,018 + Conservative CC premium (13 × $39): +$13 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-88,893 (+$14,357 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-763 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-88,130, the opportunity cost of earning $48,907/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.85 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$101,248, position total $-89,720 (+$13,530 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 20 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.840 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$102,362 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-763
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $27 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.13 | 125/125 | $24,375 | $24,375 | 94% | 95% | +$20,172 | -$81,734 | 295.9% | $-82,622 (vs do-nothing $-81,859) |
| $26 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.26 | 63/125 | $24,570 | $24,686 | 87% | 89% | +$16,805 | -$46,675 | 169.0% | $-47,501 (vs do-nothing $-46,738) |
| $26.50 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.68 | 108/125 | $24,480 | $24,512 | 76% | 81% | +$7,163 | -$70,078 | 253.7% | $-70,950 (vs do-nothing $-70,186) |
| $27 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.05 | 124/125 | $24,412 | $24,414 | 75% | 80% | +$7,458 | -$69,672 | 252.2% | $-70,560 (vs do-nothing $-69,796) |
| $26 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.83 | 88/125 | $24,347 | $24,416 | 72% | 78% | +$6,827 | -$60,181 | 217.8% | $-61,032 (vs do-nothing $-60,269) |
| $25 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.48 | 34/125 | $24,480 | $24,651 | 72% | 80% | +$10,701 | -$27,842 | 100.8% | $-28,639 (vs do-nothing $-27,876) |
| $26.50 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.16 | 112/125 | $24,360 | $24,384 | 72% | 79% | +$6,181 | -$67,298 | 243.6% | $-68,173 (vs do-nothing $-67,410) |
| $26 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.12 | 116/125 | $24,360 | $24,377 | 69% | 77% | +$2,729 | -$75,965 | 275.0% | $-76,845 (vs do-nothing $-76,081) |
| $25.50 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.97 | 76/125 | $24,573 | $24,665 | 68% | 77% | +$5,944 | -$54,710 | 198.0% | $-55,550 (vs do-nothing $-54,786) |
| $25.50 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.49 | 87/125 | $24,306 | $24,377 | 66% | 75% | +$5,363 | -$58,105 | 210.3% | $-58,955 (vs do-nothing $-58,192) |
| $25 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.08 | 68/125 | $24,480 | $24,587 | 64% | 74% | +$4,132 | -$51,603 | 186.8% | $-52,435 (vs do-nothing $-51,671) |
| $25 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.68 | 78/125 | $24,570 | $24,658 | 62% | 74% | +$5,076 | -$54,512 | 197.3% | $-55,353 (vs do-nothing $-54,590) |
| $24.50 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.31 | 56/125 | $24,453 | $24,583 | 59% | 72% | +$4,174 | -$44,009 | 159.3% | $-44,828 (vs do-nothing $-44,065) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $24.50 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.86 | 70/125 | $24,412 | $24,516 | 59% | 72% | +$4,298 | -$51,161 | 185.2% | $-51,994 (vs do-nothing $-51,231) |
| $24 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.07 | 63/125 | $24,452 | $24,568 | 55% | 70% | +$3,786 | -$47,872 | 173.3% | $-48,698 (vs do-nothing $-47,935) |
| $24 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.54 | 48/125 | $24,640 | $24,784 | 54% | 70% | +$3,790 | -$39,018 | 141.2% | $-39,829 (vs do-nothing $-39,066) |
| $24 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.84 | 20/125 | $25,200 | $25,397 | 53% | 72% | +$7,375 | -$17,657 | 63.9% | $-18,441 (vs do-nothing $-17,677) |
| $23.50 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.32 | 56/125 | $24,360 | $24,489 | 51% | 69% | +$3,482 | -$43,953 | 159.1% | $-44,772 (vs do-nothing $-44,009) |
| $23.50 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.75 | 42/125 | $24,500 | $24,656 | 49% | 67% | +$2,811 | -$35,359 | 128.0% | $-36,164 (vs do-nothing $-35,401) |
| $23.50 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.06 | 16/125 | $25,440 | $25,644 | 43% | 67% | +$4,824 | -$14,574 | 52.8% | $-15,353 (vs do-nothing $-14,590) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 125 contracts at the conservative CC.