125 contracts (12,500 sh) | BE SS: $39.71 | CC-SS: $33.63 (banked floor $33.47) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $277,625 | (ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 12500 |
| Normal income ref | $41,719/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $4,392/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-92,000 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 125 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 2d | 87 × $27 | 85% | $20,880 | $3,472 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 9d | 107 × $27 | 71% | $21,043 | $-6,720 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 125 × $29 | 17 Jul | 2d | 16.1% | 98% | 5% | $625 | $9,375 | -$11,505 | $57,215 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 × $29 16.1% OTM over spot $24.97 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.17 mid) = $625 credit for the 2d cycle → $9,375/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $29) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $29.18) 98% EV / mo +$8,036 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.7-3.2] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.5 mo) · 66% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 62% without) · ~1.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $21,561 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 3% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$10,191 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $33 @ 79% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.22/sh now → $0.87 mid-life (likely $0.84–$1.41) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.82/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 83 simulated challenges: the $29 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $30 (overshoots $0.72). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $29 is $5 below CC-SS $33.63: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $29.18 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $29)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $34.61 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.63, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-92,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$91,658 − CC assignment net of premium (125 × $29): -$57,215 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-57,557 (+$34,443 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $158 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-57,715, the opportunity cost of earning $9,375/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.86 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$72,625, position total $-59,915 (+$32,085 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 58 × $27 | 17 Jul | 2d | 8.1% | 85% | 30% | $928 | $13,920 | -$6,960 | $37,510 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 58 × $27 8.1% OTM over spot $24.97 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.21 mid) = $928 credit for the 2d cycle → $13,920/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $27.20) 87% EV / mo +$5,293 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.6-2.7] median · 68% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 62% without) · ~11.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $26,965 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 17% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,579 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $31 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 58 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.10/sh now → $0.78 mid-life (likely $0.83–$1.63) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.62/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 515 simulated challenges: the $27 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $28 (overshoots $0.79). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27 is $7 below CC-SS $33.63: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.16 collected) or spot ≥ $27.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $27)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $34.61 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.63, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-92,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$91,658 − CC assignment net of premium (58 × $27): -$37,510 + Conservative CC premium (67 × $34.50): +$268 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-37,584 (+$54,416 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $158 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-37,742, the opportunity cost of earning $13,920/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.86 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$44,660, position total $-34,094 (+$57,906 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 87 × $27 | 17 Jul | 2d | 8.1% | 85% | 17% | $1,392 | $20,880 | — | $56,265 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 87 × $27 8.1% OTM over spot $24.97 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.21 mid) = $1,392 credit for the 2d cycle → $20,880/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $27.20) 87% EV / mo +$7,940 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.2 mo [0.6-2.8] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.3 mo) · 72% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 64% without) · ~10.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $32,345 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 17% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,368 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $31 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 87 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.10/sh now → $0.78 mid-life (likely $0.88–$1.76) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.62/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 515 simulated challenges: the $27 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $28 (overshoots $0.86). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27 is $7 below CC-SS $33.63: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.16 collected) or spot ≥ $27.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $27)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $34.61 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.63, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-92,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$91,658 − CC assignment net of premium (87 × $27): -$56,265 + Conservative CC premium (38 × $34.50): +$152 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-56,454 (+$35,546 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $158 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-56,613, the opportunity cost of earning $20,880/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.86 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$66,990, position total $-55,496 (+$36,504 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 82 × $26 | 17 Jul | 2d | 4.1% | 71% | 59% | $2,788 | $41,820 | +$20,940 | $59,755 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 82 × $26 4.1% OTM over spot $24.97 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.49 mid) = $2,788 credit for the 2d cycle → $41,820/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26) 71% Breach risk 29% POP (stays ≤ $26.50) 79% EV / mo +$7,660 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.6-2.8] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.2 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 72% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without) · ~21.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $47,094 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 36% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,235 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $31 @ 84% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 82 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.04/sh now → $0.73 mid-life (likely $0.89–$1.81) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.34/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.39/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,091 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 2, at $27 (overshoots $0.90). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $26 is $8 below CC-SS $33.63: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.34 collected) or spot ≥ $26.50 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $34.61 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.63, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-92,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$91,658 − CC assignment net of premium (82 × $26): -$59,755 + Conservative CC premium (43 × $34.50): +$172 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-59,925 (+$32,075 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $158 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-60,083, the opportunity cost of earning $41,820/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.86 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$69,864, position total $-58,530 (+$33,470 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 125 × $30.50 | 24 Jul | 9d | 22.1% | 91% | 19% | $1,000 | $3,333 | -$17,710 | $38,090 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 × $30.50 22.1% OTM over spot $24.97 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.29 mid) = $1,000 credit for the 9d cycle → $3,333/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $30.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $30.80) 92% EV / mo $-1,686 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.7-3.4] median · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 59% without) · ~2.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,591 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$22,727 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $31 @ 68% POP 57% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.68/sh now → $1.90 mid-life (likely $1.64–$2.79) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.82/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 421 simulated challenges: the $30 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $32 (overshoots $1.04). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $30.50 is $3 below CC-SS $33.63: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $30.80 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $30)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $34.61 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.63, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-92,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$91,658 − CC assignment net of premium (125 × $30.50): -$38,090 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-38,432 (+$53,568 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $158 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-38,590, the opportunity cost of earning $3,333/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.86 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$53,500, position total $-40,790 (+$51,210 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 112 × $28 | 24 Jul | 9d | 12.1% | 78% | 46% | $4,144 | $13,813 | -$7,230 | $58,881 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 112 × $28 12.1% OTM over spot $24.97 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.55 mid) = $4,144 credit for the 9d cycle → $13,813/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $28) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $28.55) 81% EV / mo $-2,245 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.7-2.5] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.5 mo) · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without) · ~5.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $24,271 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 36% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$14,531 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $29 @ 70% POP 61% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 112 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.36/sh now → $1.67 mid-life (likely $1.78–$2.70) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.37/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.30/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,078 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $29 (overshoots $0.91). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $28 is $6 below CC-SS $33.63: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.37 collected) or spot ≥ $28.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $34.61 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.63, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-92,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$91,658 − CC assignment net of premium (112 × $28): -$58,881 + Conservative CC premium (13 × $34.50): +$52 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-59,171 (+$32,829 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $158 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-59,329, the opportunity cost of earning $13,813/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.86 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$72,688, position total $-60,394 (+$31,606 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 107 × $27 | 24 Jul | 9d | 8.1% | 71% | 49% | $6,313 | $21,043 | — | $64,598 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 107 × $27 8.1% OTM over spot $24.97 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.86 mid) = $6,313 credit for the 9d cycle → $21,043/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27) 71% Breach risk 29% POP (stays ≤ $27.86) 77% EV / mo $-2,307 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.1 mo [0.5-2.4] median · 67% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 61% without) · ~7.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $24,138 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 49% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$10,581 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $29 @ 74% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 107 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.23/sh now → $1.58 mid-life (likely $1.88–$2.70) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.59/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.99/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,479 simulated challenges: the $27 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 9, at $28 (overshoots $0.86). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27 is $7 below CC-SS $33.63: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.59 collected) or spot ≥ $27.86 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $27)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $34.61 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.63, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-92,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$91,658 − CC assignment net of premium (107 × $27): -$64,598 + Conservative CC premium (18 × $34.50): +$72 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-64,868 (+$27,132 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $158 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-65,026, the opportunity cost of earning $21,043/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.86 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$77,789, position total $-65,655 (+$26,345 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 120 × $25.50 | 24 Jul | 9d | 2.1% | 58% | 89% | $12,600 | $42,000 | +$20,957 | $84,927 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 120 × $25.50 2.1% OTM over spot $24.97 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $1.40 mid) = $12,600 credit for the 9d cycle → $42,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25.50) 58% Breach risk 42% POP (stays ≤ $26.90) 70% EV / mo $-4,351 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.6-2.9] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.4 mo) · 69% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 60% without) · ~16.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $40,925 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 70% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,801 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $30 @ 83% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 120 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.05/sh now → $1.45 mid-life (likely $1.98–$2.78) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.40/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,102 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $26 (overshoots $0.93). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $25.50 is $8 below CC-SS $33.63: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.26/sh (~25% of the $1.05 collected) or spot ≥ $26.90 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $34.61 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.63, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-92,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$91,658 − CC assignment net of premium (120 × $25.50): -$84,927 + Conservative CC premium (5 × $34.50): +$20 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-85,248 (+$6,752 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $158 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-85,407, the opportunity cost of earning $42,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.86 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$99,720, position total $-87,170 (+$4,830 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 17 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.847 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$91,658 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $158
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $27 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.16 | 87/125 | $20,880 | $21,165 | 85% | 87% | +$7,940 | -$56,265 | 203.7% | $-56,454 (vs do-nothing $-56,613) |
| $28 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.99 | 113/125 | $20,976 | $21,066 | 74% | 79% | +$4,195 | -$52,401 | 189.7% | $-52,694 (vs do-nothing $-52,853) |
| $26 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.34 | 41/125 | $20,910 | $21,540 | 71% | 79% | +$3,830 | -$29,878 | 108.2% | $-29,883 (vs do-nothing $-30,042) |
| $27 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.59 | 107/125 | $21,043 | $21,178 | 71% | 77% | $-2,307 | -$64,598 | 233.8% | $-64,868 (vs do-nothing $-65,026) |
| $27.50 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.04 | 107/125 | $20,865 | $21,000 | 71% | 78% | +$2,369 | -$54,433 | 197.0% | $-54,703 (vs do-nothing $-54,861) |
| $27 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.19 | 94/125 | $20,974 | $21,206 | 68% | 76% | +$2,138 | -$51,110 | 185.0% | $-51,328 (vs do-nothing $-51,486) |
| $26.50 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.79 | 80/125 | $21,067 | $21,404 | 67% | 75% | $-221 | -$50,698 | 183.5% | $-50,859 (vs do-nothing $-51,018) |
| $26.50 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.16 | 96/125 | $20,880 | $21,097 | 65% | 74% | $-1,322 | -$57,285 | 207.4% | $-57,511 (vs do-nothing $-57,669) |
| $26 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.92 | 69/125 | $21,160 | $21,580 | 63% | 72% | $-1,051 | -$46,280 | 167.5% | $-46,398 (vs do-nothing $-46,556) |
| $26 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.37 | 82/125 | $21,064 | $21,386 | 62% | 72% | $-725 | -$51,309 | 185.7% | $-51,479 (vs do-nothing $-51,637) |
| $25.50 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.05 | 60/125 | $21,000 | $21,488 | 58% | 70% | $-2,175 | -$42,463 | 153.7% | $-42,545 (vs do-nothing $-42,703) |
| $25.50 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.57 | 71/125 | $20,901 | $21,306 | 58% | 71% | $-675 | -$46,556 | 168.5% | $-46,682 (vs do-nothing $-46,840) |
| $25 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.78 | 63/125 | $21,026 | $21,491 | 55% | 69% | $-765 | -$43,137 | 156.2% | $-43,231 (vs do-nothing $-43,389) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $25 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.30 | 49/125 | $21,233 | $21,803 | 54% | 68% | $-1,292 | -$35,903 | 130.0% | $-35,941 (vs do-nothing $-36,099) |
| $25 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.60 | 24/125 | $21,600 | $22,358 | 52% | 67% | $-1,536 | -$19,265 | 69.7% | $-19,203 (vs do-nothing $-19,361) |
| $24.50 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.02 | 56/125 | $21,210 | $21,728 | 51% | 67% | $-735 | -$39,800 | 144.1% | $-39,866 (vs do-nothing $-40,024) |
| $24.50 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.60 | 40/125 | $21,333 | $21,971 | 49% | 66% | $-370 | -$30,109 | 109.0% | $-30,111 (vs do-nothing $-30,269) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 125 contracts at the conservative CC.