125 contracts (12,500 sh) | BE SS: $39.71 | CC-SS: $33.25 (banked floor $33.09) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $277,625 | (ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 12500 |
| Normal income ref | $52,250/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $4,197/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-93,250 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 125 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 8d | 106 × $26.50 | 73% | $26,235 | $-3,282 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 125 × $29.50 | 24 Jul | 8d | 20.7% | 91% | 19% | $2,125 | $7,969 | -$18,266 | $44,717 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 × $29.50 20.7% OTM over spot $24.44 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.39 mid) = $2,125 credit for the 8d cycle → $7,969/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $29.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $29.89) 92% EV / mo +$3,181 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.6-3.5] median · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 55% without) · ~2.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $22,545 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$22,029 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $31 @ 72% POP 61% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.73/sh now → $1.93 mid-life (likely $1.75–$2.77) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.76/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 430 simulated challenges: the $30 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $30 (overshoots $0.93). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $29.50 is $4 below CC-SS $33.25: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $29.89 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $30)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $33.86 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.25, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-93,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$92,587 − CC assignment net of premium (125 × $29.50): -$44,717 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-45,380 (+$47,870 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-538 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-44,842, the opportunity cost of earning $7,969/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.86 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$64,875, position total $-48,585 (+$44,665 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 105 × $27.50 | 24 Jul | 8d | 12.5% | 80% | 42% | $4,620 | $17,325 | -$8,910 | $55,727 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 105 × $27.50 12.5% OTM over spot $24.44 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.59 mid) = $4,620 credit for the 8d cycle → $17,325/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27.50) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $28.09) 84% EV / mo +$3,937 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.6-3.0] median · 67% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 58% without) · ~5.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $28,832 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 30% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$13,618 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $29 @ 74% POP 65% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 105 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.46/sh now → $1.74 mid-life (likely $1.74–$2.76) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.44/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.30/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 914 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $28 (overshoots $0.90). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27.50 is $6 below CC-SS $33.25: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.44 collected) or spot ≥ $28.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $33.86 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.25, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-93,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$92,587 − CC assignment net of premium (105 × $27.50): -$55,727 + Conservative CC premium (20 × $39): +$20 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-56,370 (+$36,880 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-538 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-55,832, the opportunity cost of earning $17,325/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.86 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$72,660, position total $-56,350 (+$36,900 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 106 × $26.50 | 24 Jul | 8d | 8.4% | 73% | 45% | $6,996 | $26,235 | — | $64,526 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 106 × $26.50 8.4% OTM over spot $24.44 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.94 mid) = $6,996 credit for the 8d cycle → $26,235/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26.50) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $27.43) 80% EV / mo +$4,560 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.7-3.1] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.7 mo) · 66% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 56% without) · ~8.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $39,712 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 45% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$10,418 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $29 @ 75% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 106 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.32/sh now → $1.64 mid-life (likely $1.87–$2.82) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.66/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.98/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,356 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $27 (overshoots $0.85). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $26.50 is $7 below CC-SS $33.25: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.66 collected) or spot ≥ $27.43 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $33.86 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.25, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-93,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$92,587 − CC assignment net of premium (106 × $26.50): -$64,526 + Conservative CC premium (19 × $39): +$19 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-65,170 (+$28,080 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-538 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-64,632, the opportunity cost of earning $26,235/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.86 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$81,620, position total $-65,311 (+$27,939 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 124 × $25 | 24 Jul | 8d | 2.3% | 59% | 87% | $14,012 | $52,545 | +$26,310 | $88,255 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 124 × $25 2.3% OTM over spot $24.44 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.33 mid) = $14,012 credit for the 8d cycle → $52,545/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25) 59% Breach risk 41% POP (stays ≤ $26.34) 71% EV / mo +$4,660 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.6-3.0] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.6 mo) · 74% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 60% without) · ~16.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $46,958 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 68% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,662 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $29 @ 84% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 124 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.13/sh now → $1.51 mid-life (likely $2.04–$2.94) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.38/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,053 simulated challenges: the $25 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 8, at $26 (overshoots $0.89). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $25 is $8 below CC-SS $33.25: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.28/sh (~25% of the $1.13 collected) or spot ≥ $26.34 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $25)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $33.86 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.25, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-93,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$92,587 − CC assignment net of premium (124 × $25): -$88,255 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $39): +$1 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-88,917 (+$4,333 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-538 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-88,379, the opportunity cost of earning $52,545/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.86 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$108,252, position total $-91,961 (+$1,289 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (2 expiries scanned, 12 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.841 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$92,587 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-538
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $26.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.66 | 106/125 | $26,235 | $26,273 | 73% | 80% | +$4,560 | -$64,526 | 233.6% | $-65,170 (vs do-nothing $-64,632) |
| $26.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.09 | 120/125 | $26,160 | $26,170 | 69% | 77% | +$3,226 | -$67,888 | 245.7% | $-68,546 (vs do-nothing $-68,008) |
| $26 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.78 | 90/125 | $26,325 | $26,395 | 68% | 77% | +$3,352 | -$58,206 | 210.7% | $-58,834 (vs do-nothing $-58,296) |
| $26 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.46 | 90/125 | $26,280 | $26,350 | 66% | 75% | +$6,200 | -$52,086 | 188.5% | $-52,714 (vs do-nothing $-52,176) |
| $25.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.87 | 81/125 | $26,426 | $26,514 | 64% | 74% | +$869 | -$55,707 | 201.7% | $-56,325 (vs do-nothing $-55,788) |
| $25.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.65 | 80/125 | $26,400 | $26,490 | 62% | 74% | +$5,668 | -$48,779 | 176.6% | $-49,397 (vs do-nothing $-48,859) |
| $25 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.13 | 62/125 | $26,272 | $26,398 | 59% | 71% | +$2,330 | -$44,128 | 159.7% | $-44,727 (vs do-nothing $-44,190) |
| $25 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.86 | 71/125 | $26,412 | $26,520 | 58% | 72% | +$5,150 | -$45,350 | 164.2% | $-45,959 (vs do-nothing $-45,421) |
| $24.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.09 | 63/125 | $26,334 | $26,458 | 55% | 70% | +$4,648 | -$41,941 | 151.8% | $-42,542 (vs do-nothing $-42,004) |
| $24.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.30 | 54/125 | $26,325 | $26,467 | 54% | 70% | +$1,059 | -$40,216 | 145.6% | $-40,807 (vs do-nothing $-40,270) |
| $24 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.35 | 56/125 | $26,320 | $26,458 | 51% | 69% | +$4,284 | -$38,625 | 139.8% | $-39,219 (vs do-nothing $-38,681) |
| $24 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.56 | 45/125 | $26,325 | $26,485 | 48% | 66% | +$1,070 | -$34,593 | 125.2% | $-35,176 (vs do-nothing $-34,638) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 125 contracts at the conservative CC.