125 contracts (12,500 sh) | BE SS: $39.71 | CC-SS: $33.57 (banked floor $33.41) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $277,625 | (ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 12500 |
| Normal income ref | $23,750/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $4,197/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-96,750 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 125 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 8d | 71 × $27.50 | 80% | $11,981 | $-1,234 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 125 × $30 | 24 Jul | 8d | 22.4% | 92% | 16% | $1,625 | $6,094 | -$5,887 | $42,951 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 × $30 22.4% OTM over spot $24.50 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.21 mid) = $1,625 credit for the 8d cycle → $6,094/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $30) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $30.21) 93% EV / mo +$2,399 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.8-3.2] median · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without) · ~2.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $18,005 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$21,866 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $32 @ 76% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.66/sh now → $1.88 mid-life (likely $1.53–$2.73) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.75/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 323 simulated challenges: the $30 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $31 (overshoots $0.99). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $30 is $4 below CC-SS $33.57: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.13 collected) or spot ≥ $30.21 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $30)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $33.85 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.57, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-96,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$95,534 − CC assignment net of premium (125 × $30): -$42,951 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-44,167 (+$52,583 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,091 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-43,076, the opportunity cost of earning $6,094/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.86 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$59,125, position total $-46,707 (+$50,043 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 84 × $29 | 24 Jul | 8d | 18.4% | 89% | 23% | $2,100 | $7,875 | -$4,106 | $36,255 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 84 × $29 18.4% OTM over spot $24.50 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.33 mid) = $2,100 credit for the 8d cycle → $7,875/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $29) 89% Breach risk 11% POP (stays ≤ $29.32) 90% EV / mo +$3,494 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [0.9-4.1] median, 0.3 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.7 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 57% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 52% without) · ~3.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $24,352 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 16% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$12,879 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $32 @ 76% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 84 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.52/sh now → $1.78 mid-life (likely $1.58–$2.60) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.53/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 485 simulated challenges: the $29 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $30 (overshoots $0.88). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $29 is $5 below CC-SS $33.57: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $29.32 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $29)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $33.85 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.57, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-96,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$95,534 − CC assignment net of premium (84 × $29): -$36,255 + Conservative CC premium (41 × $39): +$41 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-37,430 (+$59,320 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,091 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-36,339, the opportunity cost of earning $7,875/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.86 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$47,124, position total $-34,665 (+$62,085 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 71 × $27.50 | 24 Jul | 8d | 12.2% | 80% | 30% | $3,195 | $11,981 | — | $39,874 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 71 × $27.50 12.2% OTM over spot $24.50 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.73 mid) = $3,195 credit for the 8d cycle → $11,981/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27.50) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $28.23) 85% EV / mo +$3,692 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.8-3.2] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.6 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 66% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 60% without) · ~5.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $24,162 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 30% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$8,474 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $31 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 71 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.32/sh now → $1.64 mid-life (likely $1.69–$2.69) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.19/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 906 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $28 (overshoots $0.88). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27.50 is $6 below CC-SS $33.57: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.45 collected) or spot ≥ $28.23 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $33.85 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.57, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-96,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$95,534 − CC assignment net of premium (71 × $27.50): -$39,874 + Conservative CC premium (54 × $39): +$54 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-41,036 (+$55,714 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,091 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-39,945, the opportunity cost of earning $11,981/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.86 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$49,061, position total $-36,589 (+$60,161 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 112 × $26.50 | 24 Jul | 8d | 8.2% | 73% | 57% | $6,384 | $23,940 | +$11,959 | $72,757 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 112 × $26.50 8.2% OTM over spot $24.50 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.85 mid) = $6,384 credit for the 8d cycle → $23,940/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26.50) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $27.35) 79% EV / mo +$2,450 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.8-3.0] median · 68% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 60% without) · ~8.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $33,622 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 44% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$11,012 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $30 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 112 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.20/sh now → $1.55 mid-life (likely $1.79–$2.61) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.57/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.98/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,333 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $27 (overshoots $0.79). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $26.50 is $7 below CC-SS $33.57: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.57 collected) or spot ≥ $27.35 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $33.85 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.57, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-96,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$95,534 − CC assignment net of premium (112 × $26.50): -$72,757 + Conservative CC premium (13 × $39): +$13 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-73,959 (+$22,791 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,091 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-72,869, the opportunity cost of earning $23,940/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.86 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$87,248, position total $-74,816 (+$21,934 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 23 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.843 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$95,534 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,091
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $30 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.74 | 118/125 | $11,907 | $11,921 | 83% | 87% | +$4,042 | -$33,348 | 120.7% | $-34,557 (vs do-nothing $-33,466) |
| $29 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.51 | 117/125 | $11,934 | $11,950 | 82% | 87% | +$1,966 | -$47,457 | 171.8% | $-48,664 (vs do-nothing $-47,574) |
| $29.50 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.80 | 109/125 | $11,891 | $11,923 | 81% | 85% | +$3,515 | -$35,601 | 128.9% | $-36,800 (vs do-nothing $-35,710) |
| $27.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.45 | 71/125 | $11,981 | $12,089 | 80% | 85% | +$3,692 | -$39,874 | 144.3% | $-41,036 (vs do-nothing $-39,945) |
| $28.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.52 | 115/125 | $11,960 | $11,980 | 80% | 83% | +$291 | -$52,280 | 189.3% | $-53,486 (vs do-nothing $-52,395) |
| $29 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.75 | 117/125 | $11,966 | $11,982 | 79% | 83% | +$1,626 | -$44,649 | 161.6% | $-45,856 (vs do-nothing $-44,766) |
| $28 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.63 | 95/125 | $11,970 | $12,030 | 77% | 82% | +$530 | -$46,893 | 169.7% | $-48,079 (vs do-nothing $-46,988) |
| $28.50 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.03 | 85/125 | $11,939 | $12,019 | 77% | 83% | +$3,320 | -$34,307 | 124.2% | $-35,483 (vs do-nothing $-34,392) |
| $27 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.49 | 65/125 | $11,944 | $12,064 | 77% | 82% | +$2,171 | -$39,495 | 143.0% | $-40,651 (vs do-nothing $-39,560) |
| $28 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.11 | 79/125 | $11,958 | $12,050 | 75% | 81% | +$2,791 | -$35,203 | 127.4% | $-36,373 (vs do-nothing $-35,282) |
| $26.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.57 | 56/125 | $11,970 | $12,108 | 73% | 79% | +$1,225 | -$36,378 | 131.7% | $-37,525 (vs do-nothing $-36,434) |
| $27.50 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.28 | 69/125 | $12,044 | $12,156 | 72% | 83% | +$2,904 | -$33,024 | 119.5% | $-34,184 (vs do-nothing $-33,093) |
| $27 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.95 | 63/125 | $11,970 | $12,094 | 72% | 78% | +$1,413 | -$35,382 | 128.1% | $-36,535 (vs do-nothing $-35,445) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $27 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.59 | 55/125 | $11,925 | $12,065 | 70% | 78% | +$3,631 | -$27,369 | 99.1% | $-28,514 (vs do-nothing $-27,424) |
| $26 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.75 | 43/125 | $12,094 | $12,258 | 68% | 77% | +$1,667 | -$29,309 | 106.1% | $-30,443 (vs do-nothing $-29,352) |
| $26.50 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.76 | 50/125 | $12,000 | $12,150 | 67% | 77% | +$3,441 | -$26,531 | 96.0% | $-27,671 (vs do-nothing $-26,581) |
| $26 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.95 | 45/125 | $11,966 | $12,126 | 64% | 75% | +$3,246 | -$25,273 | 91.5% | $-26,408 (vs do-nothing $-25,318) |
| $25.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.92 | 35/125 | $12,075 | $12,255 | 64% | 74% | +$1,460 | -$25,011 | 90.5% | $-26,137 (vs do-nothing $-25,046) |
| $25.50 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.15 | 41/125 | $12,020 | $12,188 | 61% | 74% | +$3,053 | -$24,256 | 87.8% | $-25,388 (vs do-nothing $-24,297) |
| $25 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.08 | 30/125 | $12,150 | $12,340 | 58% | 71% | +$892 | -$22,458 | 81.3% | $-23,579 (vs do-nothing $-22,488) |
| $25 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.37 | 37/125 | $11,958 | $12,134 | 58% | 72% | +$2,852 | -$22,926 | 83.0% | $-24,053 (vs do-nothing $-22,963) |
| $24.50 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.59 | 34/125 | $12,008 | $12,190 | 55% | 71% | +$2,622 | -$22,019 | 79.7% | $-23,144 (vs do-nothing $-22,053) |
| $24.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.36 | 24/125 | $12,240 | $12,442 | 53% | 70% | +$1,221 | -$18,495 | 66.9% | $-19,609 (vs do-nothing $-18,519) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 125 contracts at the conservative CC.