125 contracts (12,500 sh) | BE SS: $39.71 | CC-SS: $34.39 (banked floor $34.23) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $277,625 | (ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 12500 |
| Normal income ref | $44,500/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $4,163/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-113,250 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 125 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 8d | 119 × $26 | 75% | $22,312 | $-7,936 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield ← lean | 125 × $29 | 24 Jul | 8d | 22.3% | 92% | 18% | $1,125 | $4,219 | -$18,094 | $66,242 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 × $29 22.3% OTM over spot $23.72 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.27 mid) = $1,125 credit for the 8d cycle → $4,219/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $29) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $29.27) 92% EV / mo $-253 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.8 mo [0.9-3.7] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.7 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 53% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 50% without) · ~2.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $14,196 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$23,637 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $30 @ 72% POP 62% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.80/sh now → $1.98 mid-life (likely $1.69–$2.80) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.89/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 376 simulated challenges: the $29 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $30 (overshoots $0.95). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $29 is $5 below CC-SS $34.39: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot ≥ $29.27 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $29)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $33.89 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.39, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-113,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$111,628 − CC assignment net of premium (125 × $29): -$66,242 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-67,864 (+$45,386 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,497 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-66,367, the opportunity cost of earning $4,219/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.86 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$72,125, position total $-68,823 (+$44,427 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 79 × $26 | 24 Jul | 8d | 9.6% | 75% | 53% | $3,950 | $14,812 | -$7,500 | $62,326 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 79 × $26 9.6% OTM over spot $23.72 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.93 mid) = $3,950 credit for the 8d cycle → $14,812/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26) 75% Breach risk 25% POP (stays ≤ $26.93) 81% EV / mo +$900 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.9-3.4] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.8 mo) · 53% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 48% without) · ~9.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $32,498 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 41% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$9,316 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $29 @ 76% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 79 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.37/sh now → $1.68 mid-life (likely $1.90–$2.78) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,233 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $27 (overshoots $0.82). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $26 is $8 below CC-SS $34.39: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.50 collected) or spot ≥ $26.93 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $33.89 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.39, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-113,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$111,628 − CC assignment net of premium (79 × $26): -$62,326 + Conservative CC premium (46 × $37.50): +$46 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-63,902 (+$49,348 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,497 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-62,405, the opportunity cost of earning $14,812/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.86 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$66,044, position total $-62,696 (+$50,554 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 119 × $26 | 24 Jul | 8d | 9.6% | 75% | 40% | $5,950 | $22,312 | — | $93,884 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 119 × $26 9.6% OTM over spot $23.72 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.93 mid) = $5,950 credit for the 8d cycle → $22,312/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26) 75% Breach risk 25% POP (stays ≤ $26.93) 81% EV / mo +$1,355 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.8 mo [0.9-3.4] median · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 52% without) · ~8.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $42,408 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 40% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$14,032 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $29 @ 76% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 119 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.37/sh now → $1.68 mid-life (likely $1.90–$2.81) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,211 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $27 (overshoots $0.83). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $26 is $8 below CC-SS $34.39: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.50 collected) or spot ≥ $26.93 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $33.89 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.39, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-113,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$111,628 − CC assignment net of premium (119 × $26): -$93,884 + Conservative CC premium (6 × $37.50): +$6 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-95,499 (+$17,751 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,497 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-94,003, the opportunity cost of earning $22,312/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.86 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$99,484, position total $-96,176 (+$17,074 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 104 × $24 | 24 Jul | 8d | 1.2% | 56% | 93% | $11,960 | $44,850 | +$22,538 | $96,090 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 104 × $24 1.2% OTM over spot $23.72 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $2.22 mid) = $11,960 credit for the 8d cycle → $44,850/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $24) 56% Breach risk 44% POP (stays ≤ $26.23) 77% EV / mo +$3,501 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [1.0-4.2] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.0 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 65% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without) · ~23.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $58,243 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 72% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,540 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $31 @ 89% POP 88% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 104 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.11/sh now → $1.49 mid-life (likely $2.07–$2.94) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.34/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,167 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 8, at $25 (overshoots $0.88). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $24 is $10 below CC-SS $34.39: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.29/sh (~25% of the $1.15 collected) or spot ≥ $26.23 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $24)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $33.89 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.39, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-113,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$111,628 − CC assignment net of premium (104 × $24): -$96,090 + Conservative CC premium (21 × $37.50): +$21 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-97,690 (+$15,560 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,497 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-96,194, the opportunity cost of earning $44,850/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.86 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$100,984, position total $-97,661 (+$15,589 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 17 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.837 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$111,628 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,497
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $26 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.50 | 119/125 | $22,312 | $22,324 | 75% | 81% | +$1,355 | -$93,884 | 339.9% | $-95,499 (vs do-nothing $-94,003) |
| $26.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.91 | 123/125 | $22,386 | $22,390 | 74% | 84% | +$4,091 | -$85,847 | 310.8% | $-87,466 (vs do-nothing $-85,970) |
| $25.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.63 | 95/125 | $22,444 | $22,504 | 71% | 78% | +$1,339 | -$78,464 | 284.0% | $-80,056 (vs do-nothing $-78,559) |
| $26 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.07 | 104/125 | $22,256 | $22,298 | 70% | 82% | +$4,111 | -$76,122 | 275.6% | $-77,722 (vs do-nothing $-76,226) |
| $25.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.24 | 90/125 | $22,320 | $22,390 | 67% | 78% | +$3,981 | -$68,845 | 249.2% | $-70,431 (vs do-nothing $-68,935) |
| $25 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.62 | 96/125 | $22,320 | $22,378 | 66% | 79% | $-4,312 | -$84,186 | 304.7% | $-85,779 (vs do-nothing $-84,282) |
| $25.50 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.40 | 117/125 | $22,336 | $22,352 | 66% | 78% | +$532 | -$87,626 | 317.2% | $-89,239 (vs do-nothing $-87,743) |
| $25 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.20 | 93/125 | $22,320 | $22,384 | 64% | 78% | +$445 | -$76,161 | 275.7% | $-77,751 (vs do-nothing $-76,254) |
| $25 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.80 | 91/125 | $22,336 | $22,404 | 63% | 74% | +$3,228 | -$69,063 | 250.0% | $-70,651 (vs do-nothing $-69,154) |
| $24.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.83 | 72/125 | $22,410 | $22,516 | 61% | 79% | $-2,276 | -$65,228 | 236.1% | $-66,796 (vs do-nothing $-65,300) |
| $24.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.60 | 70/125 | $22,400 | $22,510 | 60% | 77% | +$3,252 | -$58,026 | 210.0% | $-59,592 (vs do-nothing $-58,096) |
| $24.50 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.60 | 102/125 | $22,255 | $22,301 | 60% | 74% | $-1,811 | -$84,552 | 306.1% | $-86,150 (vs do-nothing $-84,654) |
| $24 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.05 | 80/125 | $22,364 | $22,454 | 57% | 72% | +$1,215 | -$66,715 | 241.5% | $-68,292 (vs do-nothing $-66,795) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $24 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.60 | 70/125 | $22,400 | $22,510 | 56% | 74% | +$259 | -$61,526 | 222.7% | $-63,092 (vs do-nothing $-61,596) |
| $24 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.15 | 52/125 | $22,425 | $22,571 | 56% | 77% | +$1,751 | -$48,045 | 173.9% | $-49,593 (vs do-nothing $-48,097) |
| $23.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.00 | 56/125 | $22,400 | $22,538 | 53% | 73% | +$2,036 | -$49,781 | 180.2% | $-51,333 (vs do-nothing $-49,837) |
| $23.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.33 | 45/125 | $22,444 | $22,604 | 51% | 69% | $-391 | -$43,017 | 155.7% | $-44,559 (vs do-nothing $-43,062) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 125 contracts at the conservative CC.