125 contracts (12,500 sh) | BE SS: $39.71 | CC-SS: $33.81 (banked floor $33.65) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $277,625 | (ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 12500 |
| Normal income ref | $46,339/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $4,170/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-118,250 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 125 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 7d | 109 × $25 | 79% | $23,357 | $5,001 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 125 × $27 | 24 Jul | 7d | 19.5% | 91% | 18% | +6pp | $2,250 | $9,643 | -$13,714 | $82,822 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 × $27 19.5% OTM over spot $22.59 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.26 mid) = $2,250 credit for the 7d cycle → $9,643/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $27.26) 92% EV / mo +$5,179 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 52% whole by 9mo vs 47% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $5,809/mo median; plan ~$3,950/mo after 68% keep · $31,867 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [1.1-3.7], measured ONLY among the 52% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$14,566 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $32 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.90/sh now → $1.35 mid-life (likely $1.14–$1.94) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.18/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.17/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 418 simulated challenges: the $27 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $28 (overshoots $0.81). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27 is $7 below CC-SS $33.81: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.18 collected) or spot ≥ $27.26 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $27)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $33.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.81, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-118,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$116,223 − CC assignment net of premium (125 × $27): -$82,822 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-84,849 (+$33,401 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,902 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-82,947, the opportunity cost of earning $9,643/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.86 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$96,000, position total $-87,102 (+$31,148 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 94 × $25.50 | 24 Jul | 7d | 12.9% | 83% | 36% | +10pp | $3,572 | $15,309 | -$8,049 | $74,502 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 94 × $25.50 12.9% OTM over spot $22.59 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.42 mid) = $3,572 credit for the 7d cycle → $15,309/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25.50) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $25.92) 86% EV / mo +$6,276 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 61% whole by 9mo vs 51% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $7,936/mo median; plan ~$5,397/mo after 68% keep · $40,845 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.2 mo [1.2-4.4], measured ONLY among the 61% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 26% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$8,011 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $31 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 94 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.74/sh now → $1.23 mid-life (likely $1.24–$1.96) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.38/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.85/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 773 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $26 (overshoots $0.76). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $25.50 is $8 below CC-SS $33.81: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.38 collected) or spot ≥ $25.92 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $33.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.81, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-118,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$116,223 − CC assignment net of premium (94 × $25.50): -$74,502 + Conservative CC premium (31 × $39): +$31 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-76,498 (+$41,752 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,902 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-74,596, the opportunity cost of earning $15,309/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.86 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$84,412, position total $-75,483 (+$42,767 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 109 × $25 | 24 Jul | 7d | 10.7% | 79% | 33% | +10pp | $5,450 | $23,357 | — | $90,533 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 109 × $25 10.7% OTM over spot $22.59 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.53 mid) = $5,450 credit for the 7d cycle → $23,357/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $25.52) 83% EV / mo +$9,181 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 62% whole by 9mo vs 52% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $10,563/mo median; plan ~$7,183/mo after 68% keep · $52,121 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.9 mo [1.0-4.0], measured ONLY among the 62% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 33% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$7,582 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $32 @ 88% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 109 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.69/sh now → $1.20 mid-life (likely $1.24–$1.97) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.70/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 986 simulated challenges: the $25 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $26 (overshoots $0.74). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $25 is $9 below CC-SS $33.81: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.50 collected) or spot ≥ $25.52 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $25)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $33.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.81, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-118,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$116,223 − CC assignment net of premium (109 × $25): -$90,533 + Conservative CC premium (16 × $39): +$16 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-92,543 (+$25,707 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,902 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-90,642, the opportunity cost of earning $23,357/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.86 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$102,024, position total $-93,110 (+$25,140 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 108 × $23 | 24 Jul | 7d | 1.8% | 58% | 89% | +16pp | $10,908 | $46,749 | +$23,391 | $105,794 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 108 × $23 1.8% OTM over spot $22.59 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.21 mid) = $10,908 credit for the 7d cycle → $46,749/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $23) 58% Breach risk 42% POP (stays ≤ $24.20) 71% EV / mo +$6,002 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +16pp 67% whole by 9mo vs 51% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~7.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $13,100/mo median; plan ~$8,908/mo after 68% keep · $58,686 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.2 mo [1.1-3.9], measured ONLY among the 67% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 70% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$474 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $30 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 108 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.49/sh now → $1.05 mid-life (likely $1.44–$2.12) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.04/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,094 simulated challenges: the $23 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $24 (overshoots $0.81). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $23 is $11 below CC-SS $33.81: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.25/sh (~25% of the $1.01 collected) or spot ≥ $24.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $23)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $33.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.81, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-118,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$116,223 − CC assignment net of premium (108 × $23): -$105,794 + Conservative CC premium (17 × $39): +$17 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-107,804 (+$10,446 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,902 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-105,902, the opportunity cost of earning $46,749/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.86 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$117,180, position total $-108,265 (+$9,985 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 16 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.829 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$116,223 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,902
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $25 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.50 | 109/125 | $23,357 | $23,391 | 79% | 83% | +$9,181 | -$90,533 | 327.7% | $-92,543 (vs do-nothing $-90,642) |
| $24.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.56 | 97/125 | $23,280 | $23,340 | 74% | 80% | +$6,447 | -$84,834 | 307.1% | $-86,833 (vs do-nothing $-84,931) |
| $24 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.64 | 85/125 | $23,314 | $23,400 | 70% | 77% | +$4,890 | -$77,909 | 282.0% | $-79,896 (vs do-nothing $-77,994) |
| $24.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.02 | 107/125 | $23,387 | $23,426 | 70% | 77% | +$5,217 | -$88,657 | 320.9% | $-90,666 (vs do-nothing $-88,764) |
| $24.50 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.46 | 112/125 | $23,360 | $23,388 | 67% | 76% | +$4,305 | -$87,872 | 318.1% | $-89,886 (vs do-nothing $-87,984) |
| $24 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.19 | 91/125 | $23,205 | $23,278 | 66% | 75% | +$4,770 | -$78,403 | 283.8% | $-80,396 (vs do-nothing $-78,494) |
| $24 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.61 | 101/125 | $23,230 | $23,281 | 64% | 74% | +$3,628 | -$82,777 | 299.6% | $-84,780 (vs do-nothing $-82,878) |
| $23.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.85 | 64/125 | $23,314 | $23,445 | 64% | 74% | +$5,447 | -$60,517 | 219.1% | $-62,483 (vs do-nothing $-60,581) |
| $24 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.84 | 118/125 | $23,263 | $23,278 | 64% | 74% | +$3,597 | -$93,996 | 340.3% | $-96,016 (vs do-nothing $-94,114) |
| $23.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.41 | 77/125 | $23,265 | $23,368 | 62% | 74% | +$4,772 | -$68,497 | 248.0% | $-70,476 (vs do-nothing $-68,574) |
| $23 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.30 | 95/125 | $23,411 | $23,475 | 58% | 71% | +$3,629 | -$80,805 | 292.5% | $-82,801 (vs do-nothing $-80,900) |
| $23 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.01 | 54/125 | $23,374 | $23,526 | 58% | 71% | +$3,001 | -$52,897 | 191.5% | $-54,853 (vs do-nothing $-52,951) |
| $23 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.04 | 80/125 | $23,314 | $23,411 | 58% | 71% | +$3,284 | -$70,126 | 253.8% | $-72,108 (vs do-nothing $-70,206) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $23 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.57 | 69/125 | $23,214 | $23,334 | 58% | 71% | +$3,691 | -$63,727 | 230.7% | $-65,698 (vs do-nothing $-63,796) |
| $22.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.82 | 60/125 | $23,400 | $23,539 | 53% | 69% | +$2,867 | -$56,914 | 206.0% | $-58,876 (vs do-nothing $-56,974) |
| $22.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.29 | 42/125 | $23,220 | $23,398 | 52% | 68% | +$3,297 | -$42,066 | 152.3% | $-44,010 (vs do-nothing $-42,108) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 125 contracts at the conservative CC.