125 contracts (12,500 sh) | BE SS: $39.71 | CC-SS: $33.81 (banked floor $33.65) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $277,625 | (ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 12500 |
| Normal income ref | $46,339/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $4,170/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-118,250 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 125 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 7d | 118 × $25 | 79% | $23,263 | $2,001 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 125 × $27 | 24 Jul | 7d | 19.5% | 91% | 19% | +6pp | $2,250 | $9,643 | -$13,620 | $82,830 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 × $27 19.5% OTM over spot $22.59 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.22 mid) = $2,250 credit for the 7d cycle → $9,643/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $27.22) 92% EV / mo +$4,766 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 54% whole by 9mo vs 47% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $5,748/mo median; plan ~$3,908/mo after 68% keep · $30,689 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [1.1-3.7], measured ONLY among the 54% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$15,122 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $31 @ 79% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.96/sh now → $1.39 mid-life (likely $1.20–$1.98) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.18/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.21/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 417 simulated challenges: the $27 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $28 (overshoots $0.81). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27 is $7 below CC-SS $33.81: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.18 collected) or spot ≥ $27.22 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $27)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $33.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.81, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-118,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$115,949 − CC assignment net of premium (125 × $27): -$82,830 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-85,130 (+$33,120 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,176 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-82,955, the opportunity cost of earning $9,643/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.86 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$96,000, position total $-87,409 (+$30,841 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 92 × $25.50 | 24 Jul | 7d | 12.9% | 82% | 36% | +11pp | $3,588 | $15,377 | -$7,886 | $72,831 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 92 × $25.50 12.9% OTM over spot $22.59 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.45 mid) = $3,588 credit for the 7d cycle → $15,377/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25.50) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $25.95) 85% EV / mo +$6,252 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +11pp 60% whole by 9mo vs 50% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $7,637/mo median; plan ~$5,193/mo after 68% keep · $39,063 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [1.0-3.8], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 26% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$8,125 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $30 @ 84% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 92 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.80/sh now → $1.27 mid-life (likely $1.24–$1.99) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.88/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 774 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $26 (overshoots $0.79). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $25.50 is $8 below CC-SS $33.81: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.39 collected) or spot ≥ $25.95 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $33.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.81, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-118,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$115,949 − CC assignment net of premium (92 × $25.50): -$72,831 + Conservative CC premium (33 × $39): +$33 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-75,098 (+$43,152 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,176 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-72,923, the opportunity cost of earning $15,377/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.86 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$82,524, position total $-73,900 (+$44,350 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 118 × $25 | 24 Jul | 7d | 10.7% | 79% | 34% | +10pp | $5,428 | $23,263 | — | $98,487 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 118 × $25 10.7% OTM over spot $22.59 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.53 mid) = $5,428 credit for the 7d cycle → $23,263/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $25.52) 83% EV / mo +$7,594 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 58% whole by 9mo vs 48% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $10,193/mo median; plan ~$6,931/mo after 68% keep · $56,841 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.5 mo [1.3-4.4], measured ONLY among the 58% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$9,149 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $30 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 118 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.75/sh now → $1.24 mid-life (likely $1.33–$2.01) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.46/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.78/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,021 simulated challenges: the $25 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $26 (overshoots $0.76). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $25 is $9 below CC-SS $33.81: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.46 collected) or spot ≥ $25.52 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $25)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $33.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.81, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-118,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$115,949 − CC assignment net of premium (118 × $25): -$98,487 + Conservative CC premium (7 × $39): +$7 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-100,781 (+$17,469 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,176 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-98,605, the opportunity cost of earning $23,263/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.86 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$110,920, position total $-102,322 (+$15,928 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 103 × $23 | 24 Jul | 7d | 1.8% | 58% | 89% | +13pp | $10,918 | $46,791 | +$23,529 | $100,388 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 103 × $23 1.8% OTM over spot $22.59 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.21 mid) = $10,918 credit for the 7d cycle → $46,791/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $23) 58% Breach risk 42% POP (stays ≤ $24.20) 71% EV / mo +$7,740 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +13pp 62% whole by 9mo vs 49% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~7.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $13,467/mo median; plan ~$9,158/mo after 68% keep · $61,416 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [1.0-3.8], measured ONLY among the 62% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 71% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$300 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $30 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 103 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.54/sh now → $1.09 mid-life (likely $1.48–$2.18) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,136 simulated challenges: the $23 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $24 (overshoots $0.82). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $23 is $11 below CC-SS $33.81: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.27/sh (~25% of the $1.06 collected) or spot ≥ $24.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $23)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $33.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.81, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-118,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$115,949 − CC assignment net of premium (103 × $23): -$100,388 + Conservative CC premium (22 × $39): +$22 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-102,666 (+$15,584 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,176 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-100,491, the opportunity cost of earning $46,791/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.86 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$111,240, position total $-102,627 (+$15,623 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 17 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.827 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$115,949 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,176
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $25 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.46 | 118/125 | $23,263 | $23,278 | 79% | 83% | +$7,594 | -$98,487 | 356.5% | $-100,781 (vs do-nothing $-98,605) |
| $24.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.56 | 97/125 | $23,280 | $23,340 | 74% | 80% | +$6,224 | -$84,840 | 307.1% | $-87,113 (vs do-nothing $-84,937) |
| $25 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.91 | 119/125 | $23,205 | $23,218 | 72% | 79% | +$4,935 | -$93,967 | 340.2% | $-96,262 (vs do-nothing $-94,086) |
| $24 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.64 | 85/125 | $23,314 | $23,400 | 69% | 77% | +$3,755 | -$77,914 | 282.0% | $-80,175 (vs do-nothing $-77,999) |
| $24.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.02 | 107/125 | $23,387 | $23,426 | 69% | 77% | +$3,843 | -$88,664 | 321.0% | $-90,947 (vs do-nothing $-88,771) |
| $24.50 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.45 | 112/125 | $23,200 | $23,228 | 68% | 76% | +$5,312 | -$87,992 | 318.5% | $-90,279 (vs do-nothing $-88,104) |
| $24 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.19 | 91/125 | $23,205 | $23,278 | 66% | 75% | +$4,657 | -$78,409 | 283.8% | $-80,676 (vs do-nothing $-78,500) |
| $24 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.61 | 101/125 | $23,230 | $23,281 | 64% | 75% | +$4,739 | -$82,784 | 299.7% | $-85,060 (vs do-nothing $-82,885) |
| $24 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.84 | 118/125 | $23,263 | $23,278 | 64% | 74% | +$3,490 | -$94,003 | 340.3% | $-96,297 (vs do-nothing $-94,121) |
| $23.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.85 | 64/125 | $23,314 | $23,445 | 64% | 74% | +$4,283 | -$60,521 | 219.1% | $-62,760 (vs do-nothing $-60,585) |
| $23.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.41 | 77/125 | $23,265 | $23,368 | 62% | 73% | +$4,673 | -$68,502 | 248.0% | $-70,755 (vs do-nothing $-68,579) |
| $23 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.29 | 95/125 | $23,309 | $23,373 | 58% | 71% | +$3,440 | -$80,906 | 292.9% | $-83,176 (vs do-nothing $-81,001) |
| $23 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.06 | 52/125 | $23,623 | $23,779 | 58% | 71% | +$3,907 | -$50,681 | 183.5% | $-52,909 (vs do-nothing $-50,733) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $23 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.99 | 82/125 | $23,311 | $23,404 | 58% | 71% | +$3,797 | -$72,294 | 261.7% | $-74,552 (vs do-nothing $-72,376) |
| $23 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.57 | 69/125 | $23,214 | $23,334 | 58% | 71% | +$3,602 | -$63,731 | 230.7% | $-65,976 (vs do-nothing $-63,800) |
| $22.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.82 | 60/125 | $23,400 | $23,539 | 53% | 69% | +$3,454 | -$56,918 | 206.0% | $-59,154 (vs do-nothing $-56,978) |
| $22.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.19 | 46/125 | $23,460 | $23,629 | 52% | 68% | +$1,534 | -$46,535 | 168.5% | $-48,757 (vs do-nothing $-46,581) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 125 contracts at the conservative CC.