125 contracts (12,500 sh) | BE SS: $39.71 | CC-SS: $33.98 (banked floor $33.82) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $277,625 | (ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 12500 |
| Normal income ref | $37,768/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $4,984/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-130,125 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 125 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 7d | 94 × $23.50 | 75% | $18,934 | $-715 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 125 × $27 | 24 Jul | 7d | 25.1% | 95% | 10% | +3pp | $1,000 | $4,286 | -$14,649 | $86,282 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 × $27 25.1% OTM over spot $21.59 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.23 mid) = $1,000 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,286/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $27.23) 96% EV / mo +$2,386 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 46% whole by 9mo vs 43% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,007/mo median; plan ~$2,045/mo after 68% keep · $17,814 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.2 mo [1.3-4.2], measured ONLY among the 46% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$18,542 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $29 @ 74% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.21/sh now → $1.56 mid-life (likely $1.21–$2.13) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 218 simulated challenges: the $27 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $28 (overshoots $0.83). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27 is $7 below CC-SS $33.98: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $27.23 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $27)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $33.28 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.98, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-130,125 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$126,249 − CC assignment net of premium (125 × $27): -$86,282 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-90,158 (+$39,967 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,751 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-86,407, the opportunity cost of earning $4,286/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.86 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$97,250, position total $-92,187 (+$37,938 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 101 × $24 | 24 Jul | 7d | 11.2% | 79% | 43% | +7pp | $2,929 | $12,553 | -$6,381 | $97,895 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 101 × $24 11.2% OTM over spot $21.59 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.48 mid) = $2,929 credit for the 7d cycle → $12,553/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $24) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $24.48) 83% EV / mo +$168 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 47% whole by 9mo vs 40% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $5,593/mo median; plan ~$3,803/mo after 68% keep · $35,631 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.9 mo [1.3-4.8], measured ONLY among the 47% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 33% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$10,258 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $26 @ 75% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 101 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.85/sh now → $1.31 mid-life (likely $1.37–$2.18) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.29/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.02/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 982 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $25 (overshoots $0.76). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $24 is $10 below CC-SS $33.98: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.29 collected) or spot ≥ $24.48 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $24)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $33.28 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.98, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-130,125 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$126,249 − CC assignment net of premium (101 × $24): -$97,895 + Conservative CC premium (24 × $37.50): +$24 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-101,747 (+$28,378 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,751 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-97,996, the opportunity cost of earning $12,553/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.86 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$106,757, position total $-101,670 (+$28,455 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 94 × $23.50 | 24 Jul | 7d | 8.8% | 75% | 39% | +9pp | $4,418 | $18,934 | — | $94,118 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 94 × $23.50 8.8% OTM over spot $21.59 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.62 mid) = $4,418 credit for the 7d cycle → $18,934/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $23.50) 75% Breach risk 25% POP (stays ≤ $24.12) 80% EV / mo +$3,475 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 55% whole by 9mo vs 46% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $7,784/mo median; plan ~$5,293/mo after 68% keep · $44,510 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.5 mo [1.3-3.9], measured ONLY among the 55% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 39% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$7,470 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $25 @ 76% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 94 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.79/sh now → $1.26 mid-life (likely $1.39–$2.14) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.47/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.79/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,157 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $24 (overshoots $0.72). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $23.50 is $10 below CC-SS $33.98: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.47 collected) or spot ≥ $24.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $24)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $33.28 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.98, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-130,125 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$126,249 − CC assignment net of premium (94 × $23.50): -$94,118 + Conservative CC premium (31 × $37.50): +$31 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-97,963 (+$32,162 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,751 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-94,212, the opportunity cost of earning $18,934/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.86 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$102,366, position total $-97,272 (+$32,853 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 112 × $22 | 24 Jul | 7d | 1.9% | 58% | 89% | +12pp | $8,848 | $37,920 | +$18,986 | $125,357 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 112 × $22 1.9% OTM over spot $21.59 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.07 mid) = $8,848 credit for the 7d cycle → $37,920/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $22) 58% Breach risk 42% POP (stays ≤ $23.07) 71% EV / mo $-2,981 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +12pp 56% whole by 9mo vs 44% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~8.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $10,432/mo median; plan ~$7,094/mo after 68% keep · $61,771 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.3 mo [1.4-4.4], measured ONLY among the 56% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 69% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,981 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $27 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 112 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.62/sh now → $1.15 mid-life (likely $1.56–$2.30) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.79/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.36/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,084 simulated challenges: the $22 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $23 (overshoots $0.80). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $22 is $12 below CC-SS $33.98: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.79 collected) or spot ≥ $23.07 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $22)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $33.28 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.98, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-130,125 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$126,249 − CC assignment net of premium (112 × $22): -$125,357 + Conservative CC premium (13 × $37.50): +$13 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-129,219 (+$906 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,751 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-125,469, the opportunity cost of earning $37,920/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.86 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$135,184, position total $-130,108 (+$17 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 14 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.815 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$126,249 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,751
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $23.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.47 | 94/125 | $18,934 | $19,001 | 75% | 80% | +$3,475 | -$94,118 | 340.7% | $-97,963 (vs do-nothing $-94,212) |
| $24 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.73 | 121/125 | $18,928 | $18,936 | 74% | 80% | +$2,653 | -$111,956 | 405.3% | $-115,828 (vs do-nothing $-112,077) |
| $23.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.86 | 103/125 | $18,981 | $19,029 | 70% | 78% | +$2,266 | -$99,113 | 358.8% | $-102,966 (vs do-nothing $-99,216) |
| $23 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.53 | 84/125 | $19,080 | $19,168 | 70% | 77% | +$798 | -$87,802 | 317.8% | $-91,636 (vs do-nothing $-87,886) |
| $23 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.02 | 87/125 | $19,016 | $19,097 | 66% | 75% | +$1,721 | -$86,674 | 313.8% | $-90,512 (vs do-nothing $-86,761) |
| $23 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.50 | 118/125 | $18,964 | $18,979 | 64% | 74% | +$149 | -$111,894 | 405.0% | $-115,763 (vs do-nothing $-112,012) |
| $22.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.68 | 65/125 | $18,943 | $19,071 | 64% | 74% | +$483 | -$70,217 | 254.2% | $-74,032 (vs do-nothing $-70,282) |
| $22.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.10 | 81/125 | $19,093 | $19,187 | 62% | 73% | +$318 | -$84,099 | 304.4% | $-87,930 (vs do-nothing $-84,180) |
| $22 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.04 | 87/125 | $19,016 | $19,097 | 58% | 72% | +$1,468 | -$86,500 | 313.1% | $-90,338 (vs do-nothing $-86,587) |
| $22 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.79 | 56/125 | $18,960 | $19,108 | 58% | 71% | $-1,491 | -$62,678 | 226.9% | $-66,485 (vs do-nothing $-62,734) |
| $22 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.25 | 106/125 | $18,929 | $18,969 | 58% | 71% | $-5,437 | -$113,765 | 411.8% | $-117,622 (vs do-nothing $-113,871) |
| $22 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.35 | 66/125 | $19,093 | $19,219 | 58% | 71% | +$989 | -$70,175 | 254.0% | $-73,992 (vs do-nothing $-70,241) |
| $21.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.50 | 59/125 | $18,964 | $19,106 | 53% | 69% | $-450 | -$64,797 | 234.6% | $-68,607 (vs do-nothing $-64,856) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $21.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.95 | 47/125 | $19,136 | $19,303 | 52% | 67% | $-2,610 | -$54,203 | 196.2% | $-58,001 (vs do-nothing $-54,250) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 125 contracts at the conservative CC.