125 contracts (12,500 sh) | BE SS: $39.71 | CC-SS: $35.38 (banked floor $35.30) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $277,625 | (ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 12500 |
| Normal income ref | $47,868/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $4,372/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-123,000 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 125 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 3d | 120 × $26.50 | 84% | $24,000 | $-48 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 31 Jul 2026 · 10d | 79 × $25.50 | 67% | $23,937 | $-14,227 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 33% normal | 106 × $27.50 | 24 Jul | 3d | 15.1% | 91% | 19% | +8pp | $1,590 | $15,900 | -$8,100 | $81,917 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 106 × $27.50 15.1% OTM over spot $23.90 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.21 mid) = $1,590 credit for the 3d cycle → $15,900/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $27.71) 92% EV / mo +$8,541 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 59% whole by 9mo vs 51% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $9,599/mo median; plan ~$6,528/mo after 68% keep · $43,106 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.8-3.7], measured ONLY among the 59% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$10,275 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $33 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 106 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.58/sh now → $1.12 mid-life (likely $1.05–$2.09) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.97/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 283 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $28 (overshoots $0.95). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27.50 is $8 below CC-SS $35.38: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $27.71 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $30.49 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.38, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-123,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$119,802 − CC assignment net of premium (106 × $27.50): -$81,917 + Conservative CC premium (19 × $39): +$19 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-85,096 (+$37,904 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,073 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-82,023, the opportunity cost of earning $15,900/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.80 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$75,790, position total $-85,002 (+$37,998 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 125 × $27.50 | 24 Jul | 3d | 15.1% | 91% | 19% | +8pp | $1,875 | $18,750 | -$5,250 | $96,601 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 × $27.50 15.1% OTM over spot $23.90 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.21 mid) = $1,875 credit for the 3d cycle → $18,750/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $27.71) 92% EV / mo +$10,072 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 58% whole by 9mo vs 50% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $11,096/mo median; plan ~$7,545/mo after 68% keep · $45,975 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.9-3.3], measured ONLY among the 58% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$12,117 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $33 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.58/sh now → $1.12 mid-life (likely $1.05–$2.00) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.97/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 282 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $28 (overshoots $0.95). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27.50 is $8 below CC-SS $35.38: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $27.71 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $30.49 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.38, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-123,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$119,802 − CC assignment net of premium (125 × $27.50): -$96,601 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-99,798 (+$23,202 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,073 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-96,726, the opportunity cost of earning $18,750/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.80 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$89,375, position total $-98,606 (+$24,394 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 120 × $26.50 | 24 Jul | 3d | 10.9% | 84% | 19% | +9pp | $2,400 | $24,000 | — | $104,137 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 120 × $26.50 10.9% OTM over spot $23.90 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.30 mid) = $2,400 credit for the 3d cycle → $24,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26.50) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $26.80) 87% EV / mo +$5,944 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 59% whole by 9mo vs 50% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $12,015/mo median; plan ~$8,170/mo after 68% keep · $56,815 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.9 mo [0.9-3.8], measured ONLY among the 59% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 19% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$10,324 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $32 @ 81% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 120 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.50/sh now → $1.06 mid-life (likely $1.10–$2.04) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.86/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 567 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $27 (overshoots $0.87). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $26.50 is $9 below CC-SS $35.38: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $26.80 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $30.49 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.38, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-123,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$119,802 − CC assignment net of premium (120 × $26.50): -$104,137 + Conservative CC premium (5 × $39): +$5 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-107,329 (+$15,671 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,073 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-104,257, the opportunity cost of earning $24,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.80 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$97,200, position total $-106,426 (+$16,574 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 98 × $25 | 24 Jul | 3d | 4.6% | 68% | 65% | +19pp | $4,802 | $48,020 | +$24,020 | $96,903 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 98 × $25 4.6% OTM over spot $23.90 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.62 mid) = $4,802 credit for the 3d cycle → $48,020/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25) 68% Breach risk 32% POP (stays ≤ $25.62) 76% EV / mo +$5,634 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +19pp 71% whole by 9mo vs 52% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~7.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $16,725/mo median; plan ~$11,373/mo after 68% keep · $69,211 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [1.0-4.0], measured ONLY among the 71% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 43% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,746 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $32 @ 87% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 98 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.38/sh now → $0.97 mid-life (likely $1.21–$2.10) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.49/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,293 simulated challenges: the $25 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $26 (overshoots $0.95). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $25 is $10 below CC-SS $35.38: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.49 collected) or spot ≥ $25.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $25)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $30.49 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.38, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-123,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$119,802 − CC assignment net of premium (98 × $25): -$96,903 + Conservative CC premium (27 × $39): +$27 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-100,074 (+$22,926 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,073 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-97,001, the opportunity cost of earning $48,020/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.80 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$91,238, position total $-100,442 (+$22,558 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 125 × $30.50 | 31 Jul | 10d | 27.6% | 91% | 19% | +3pp | $1,875 | $5,625 | -$18,312 | $59,101 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 × $30.50 27.6% OTM over spot $23.90 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.32 mid) = $1,875 credit for the 10d cycle → $5,625/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $30.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $30.82) 92% EV / mo +$133 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 57% whole by 9mo vs 54% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,220/mo median; plan ~$2,190/mo after 68% keep · $15,421 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.8-3.2], measured ONLY among the 57% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$43,492 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $30 @ 68% POP 55% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.13/sh now → $3.63 mid-life (likely $2.97–$4.97) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 396 simulated challenges: the $30 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $32 (overshoots $1.03). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $30.50 is $5 below CC-SS $35.38: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $30.82 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $30)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $30.49 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.38, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-123,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$119,802 − CC assignment net of premium (125 × $30.50): -$59,101 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-62,298 (+$60,702 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,073 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-59,226, the opportunity cost of earning $5,625/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.80 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$51,875, position total $-61,106 (+$61,894 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 115 × $27 | 31 Jul | 10d | 13.0% | 77% | 50% | +4pp | $5,290 | $15,870 | -$8,067 | $91,058 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 115 × $27 13.0% OTM over spot $23.90 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.93 mid) = $5,290 credit for the 10d cycle → $15,870/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $27.93) 82% EV / mo $-3,349 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 64% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $6,930/mo median; plan ~$4,712/mo after 68% keep · $27,522 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.7-3.1], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 38% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$29,569 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $27 @ 68% POP 54% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 115 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.28/sh now → $3.03 mid-life (likely $3.23–$4.85) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.46/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.57/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,141 simulated challenges: the $27 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $28 (overshoots $0.94). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27 is $8 below CC-SS $35.38: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.46 collected) or spot ≥ $27.93 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $27)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $30.49 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.38, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-123,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$119,802 − CC assignment net of premium (115 × $27): -$91,058 + Conservative CC premium (10 × $39): +$10 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-94,245 (+$28,755 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,073 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-91,173, the opportunity cost of earning $15,870/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.80 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$84,410, position total $-93,631 (+$29,369 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 79 × $25.50 | 31 Jul | 10d | 6.7% | 67% | 58% | +5pp | $7,979 | $23,937 | — | $70,058 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 79 × $25.50 6.7% OTM over spot $23.90 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $1.47 mid) = $7,979 credit for the 10d cycle → $23,937/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25.50) 67% Breach risk 33% POP (stays ≤ $26.97) 77% EV / mo +$1,818 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 59% whole by 9mo vs 54% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $8,149/mo median; plan ~$5,542/mo after 68% keep · $39,218 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.8-3.2], measured ONLY among the 59% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 58% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$14,056 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $26 @ 70% POP 59% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 79 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.94/sh now → $2.79 mid-life (likely $3.54–$4.81) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.78/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,732 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 10, at $26 (overshoots $0.90). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $25.50 is $10 below CC-SS $35.38: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.25/sh (~25% of the $1.01 collected) or spot ≥ $26.97 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $30.49 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.38, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-123,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$119,802 − CC assignment net of premium (79 × $25.50): -$70,058 + Conservative CC premium (46 × $39): +$46 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-73,209 (+$49,791 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,073 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-70,137, the opportunity cost of earning $23,937/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.80 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$65,491, position total $-74,676 (+$48,324 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 124 × $25 | 31 Jul | 10d | 4.6% | 63% | 80% | +18pp | $15,996 | $47,988 | +$24,051 | $112,692 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 124 × $25 4.6% OTM over spot $23.90 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $1.64 mid) = $15,996 credit for the 10d cycle → $47,988/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25) 63% Breach risk 37% POP (stays ≤ $26.64) 75% EV / mo +$7,114 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +18pp 63% whole by 9mo vs 46% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $15,300/mo median; plan ~$10,404/mo after 68% keep · $71,108 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [1.0-3.7], measured ONLY among the 63% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 67% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$17,614 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $26 @ 72% POP 62% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 124 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.83/sh now → $2.71 mid-life (likely $3.54–$4.94) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.29/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.42/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,006 simulated challenges: the $25 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $26 (overshoots $0.93). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $25 is $10 below CC-SS $35.38: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.32/sh (~25% of the $1.29 collected) or spot ≥ $26.64 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $25)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $30.49 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.38, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-123,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$119,802 − CC assignment net of premium (124 × $25): -$112,692 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $39): +$1 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-115,889 (+$7,111 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,073 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-112,816, the opportunity cost of earning $47,988/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.80 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$105,524, position total $-114,754 (+$8,246 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 20 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.835 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$119,802 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,073
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $26.50 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.20 | 120/125 | $24,000 | $24,015 | 84% | 87% | +$5,944 | -$104,137 | 377.0% | $-107,329 (vs do-nothing $-104,257) |
| $26 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.25 | 96/125 | $24,000 | $24,087 | 80% | 83% | +$3,138 | -$87,629 | 317.2% | $-90,798 (vs do-nothing $-87,725) |
| $25.50 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.32 | 75/125 | $24,000 | $24,150 | 75% | 80% | +$811 | -$71,685 | 259.5% | $-74,833 (vs do-nothing $-71,760) |
| $25 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.49 | 49/125 | $24,010 | $24,238 | 68% | 76% | +$2,817 | -$48,451 | 175.4% | $-51,573 (vs do-nothing $-48,500) |
| $26 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.19 | 114/125 | $23,940 | $23,973 | 68% | 80% | +$324 | -$93,344 | 337.9% | $-96,531 (vs do-nothing $-93,458) |
| $25.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.01 | 79/125 | $23,937 | $24,075 | 67% | 77% | +$1,818 | -$70,058 | 253.6% | $-73,209 (vs do-nothing $-70,137) |
| $25.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.56 | 87/125 | $23,951 | $24,065 | 65% | 75% | +$3,336 | -$72,367 | 262.0% | $-75,527 (vs do-nothing $-72,454) |
| $25 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.29 | 62/125 | $23,994 | $24,183 | 63% | 75% | +$3,557 | -$56,346 | 204.0% | $-59,481 (vs do-nothing $-56,408) |
| $25 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.74 | 78/125 | $23,951 | $24,092 | 62% | 77% | +$2,894 | -$67,377 | 243.9% | $-70,528 (vs do-nothing $-67,455) |
| $25 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.77 | 109/125 | $24,116 | $24,164 | 62% | 76% | +$503 | -$93,828 | 339.6% | $-97,010 (vs do-nothing $-93,937) |
| $24.50 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.58 | 42/125 | $24,360 | $24,609 | 61% | 72% | $-580 | -$43,252 | 156.6% | $-46,367 (vs do-nothing $-43,294) |
| $24.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.49 | 54/125 | $24,138 | $24,351 | 59% | 72% | +$3,283 | -$50,695 | 183.5% | $-53,822 (vs do-nothing $-50,749) |
| $24.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.97 | 69/125 | $23,988 | $24,156 | 59% | 71% | +$2,854 | -$61,466 | 222.5% | $-64,607 (vs do-nothing $-61,535) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $24 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.18 | 88/125 | $23,980 | $24,091 | 56% | 74% | +$377 | -$80,943 | 293.0% | $-84,104 (vs do-nothing $-81,031) |
| $24 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.17 | 63/125 | $24,125 | $24,311 | 56% | 76% | +$2,325 | -$58,011 | 210.0% | $-61,147 (vs do-nothing $-58,074) |
| $24 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.71 | 47/125 | $24,111 | $24,345 | 55% | 74% | +$2,952 | -$45,440 | 164.5% | $-48,560 (vs do-nothing $-45,487) |
| $24 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.78 | 31/125 | $24,180 | $24,462 | 54% | 69% | $-583 | -$32,854 | 118.9% | $-35,958 (vs do-nothing $-32,885) |
| $23.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.40 | 57/125 | $24,141 | $24,345 | 52% | 69% | +$1,956 | -$54,025 | 195.6% | $-57,155 (vs do-nothing $-54,082) |
| $23.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.95 | 41/125 | $23,985 | $24,237 | 50% | 71% | +$2,582 | -$40,705 | 147.3% | $-43,819 (vs do-nothing $-40,746) |
| $23.50 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.02 | 24/125 | $24,480 | $24,783 | 46% | 65% | $-752 | -$26,059 | 94.3% | $-29,156 (vs do-nothing $-26,083) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 125 contracts at the conservative CC.