125 contracts (12,500 sh) | BE SS: $39.71 | CC-SS: $35.41 (banked floor $35.33) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $277,625 | (ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 12500 |
| Normal income ref | $47,868/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $4,372/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-123,000 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 125 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 3d | 120 × $26.50 | 84% | $24,000 | $-238 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 31 Jul 2026 · 10d | 79 × $25.50 | 67% | $23,937 | $-13,961 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | 33% normal | 106 × $27.50 | 24 Jul | 3d | 14.9% | 91% | 19% | +8pp | $1,590 | $15,900 | -$8,100 | $82,210 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 106 × $27.50 14.9% OTM over spot $23.93 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.21 mid) = $1,590 credit for the 3d cycle → $15,900/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $27.71) 92% EV / mo +$8,308 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 59% whole by 9mo vs 51% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $9,598/mo median; plan ~$6,527/mo after 68% keep · $43,106 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.8-3.7], measured ONLY among the 59% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$10,081 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $33 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 106 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.56/sh now → $1.10 mid-life (likely $1.03–$2.07) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.95/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 291 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $28 (overshoots $0.93). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27.50 is $8 below CC-SS $35.41: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $27.71 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $30.49 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.41, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-123,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$119,777 − CC assignment net of premium (106 × $27.50): -$82,210 + Conservative CC premium (19 × $39): +$19 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-85,414 (+$37,586 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,098 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-82,316, the opportunity cost of earning $15,900/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.80 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$75,790, position total $-85,315 (+$37,685 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 125 × $27.50 | 24 Jul | 3d | 14.9% | 91% | 19% | +9pp | $1,875 | $18,750 | -$5,250 | $96,946 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 × $27.50 14.9% OTM over spot $23.93 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.21 mid) = $1,875 credit for the 3d cycle → $18,750/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $27.71) 92% EV / mo +$9,797 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 58% whole by 9mo vs 49% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $11,056/mo median; plan ~$7,518/mo after 68% keep · $46,327 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.9-3.4], measured ONLY among the 58% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$11,888 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $33 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.56/sh now → $1.10 mid-life (likely $1.01–$1.95) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.95/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 293 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $28 (overshoots $0.93). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27.50 is $8 below CC-SS $35.41: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $27.71 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $30.49 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.41, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-123,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$119,777 − CC assignment net of premium (125 × $27.50): -$96,946 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-100,169 (+$22,831 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,098 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-97,071, the opportunity cost of earning $18,750/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.80 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$89,375, position total $-98,919 (+$24,081 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 120 × $26.50 | 24 Jul | 3d | 10.7% | 84% | 19% | +8pp | $2,400 | $24,000 | — | $104,468 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 120 × $26.50 10.7% OTM over spot $23.93 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.30 mid) = $2,400 credit for the 3d cycle → $24,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26.50) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $26.80) 87% EV / mo +$5,434 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 59% whole by 9mo vs 50% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $11,934/mo median; plan ~$8,115/mo after 68% keep · $55,385 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.9 mo [0.9-3.7], measured ONLY among the 59% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 19% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$10,115 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $32 @ 81% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 120 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.47/sh now → $1.04 mid-life (likely $1.06–$2.00) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.84/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 581 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $27 (overshoots $0.87). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $26.50 is $9 below CC-SS $35.41: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $26.80 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $30.49 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.41, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-123,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$119,777 − CC assignment net of premium (120 × $26.50): -$104,468 + Conservative CC premium (5 × $39): +$5 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-107,686 (+$15,314 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,098 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-104,588, the opportunity cost of earning $24,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.80 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$97,200, position total $-106,739 (+$16,261 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 98 × $25 | 24 Jul | 3d | 4.5% | 68% | 66% | +17pp | $4,802 | $48,020 | +$24,020 | $97,173 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 98 × $25 4.5% OTM over spot $23.93 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.62 mid) = $4,802 credit for the 3d cycle → $48,020/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25) 68% Breach risk 32% POP (stays ≤ $25.62) 76% EV / mo +$4,674 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +17pp 70% whole by 9mo vs 52% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~7.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $16,340/mo median; plan ~$11,111/mo after 68% keep · $70,070 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [1.0-4.1], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 43% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,590 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $32 @ 87% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 98 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.35/sh now → $0.96 mid-life (likely $1.20–$2.08) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.49/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.47/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,303 simulated challenges: the $25 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $26 (overshoots $0.97). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $25 is $10 below CC-SS $35.41: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.49 collected) or spot ≥ $25.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $25)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $30.49 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.41, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-123,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$119,777 − CC assignment net of premium (98 × $25): -$97,173 + Conservative CC premium (27 × $39): +$27 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-100,369 (+$22,631 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,098 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-97,271, the opportunity cost of earning $48,020/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.80 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$91,238, position total $-100,755 (+$22,245 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 125 × $30.50 | 31 Jul | 10d | 27.5% | 91% | 18% | +2pp | $1,875 | $5,625 | -$18,312 | $59,446 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 × $30.50 27.5% OTM over spot $23.93 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.32 mid) = $1,875 credit for the 10d cycle → $5,625/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $30.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $30.82) 92% EV / mo +$826 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 56% whole by 9mo vs 54% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,335/mo median; plan ~$2,267/mo after 68% keep · $16,237 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.8-3.2], measured ONLY among the 56% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$43,082 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $30 @ 68% POP 55% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.08/sh now → $3.60 mid-life (likely $2.95–$4.95) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.45/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 398 simulated challenges: the $30 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $32 (overshoots $1.05). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $30.50 is $5 below CC-SS $35.41: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $30.82 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $30)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $30.49 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.41, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-123,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$119,777 − CC assignment net of premium (125 × $30.50): -$59,446 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-62,669 (+$60,331 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,098 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-59,571, the opportunity cost of earning $5,625/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.80 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$51,875, position total $-61,419 (+$61,581 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 115 × $27 | 31 Jul | 10d | 12.8% | 76% | 50% | +4pp | $5,290 | $15,870 | -$8,067 | $91,375 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 115 × $27 12.8% OTM over spot $23.93 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.93 mid) = $5,290 credit for the 10d cycle → $15,870/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $27.93) 81% EV / mo $-3,615 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 64% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $6,923/mo median; plan ~$4,708/mo after 68% keep · $28,579 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.7-3.1], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 38% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$29,248 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $27 @ 68% POP 54% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 115 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.24/sh now → $3.00 mid-life (likely $3.21–$4.81) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.46/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.54/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,147 simulated challenges: the $27 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $28 (overshoots $0.94). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27 is $8 below CC-SS $35.41: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.46 collected) or spot ≥ $27.93 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $27)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $30.49 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.41, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-123,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$119,777 − CC assignment net of premium (115 × $27): -$91,375 + Conservative CC premium (10 × $39): +$10 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-94,588 (+$28,412 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,098 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-91,490, the opportunity cost of earning $15,870/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.80 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$84,410, position total $-93,944 (+$29,056 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 79 × $25.50 | 31 Jul | 10d | 6.6% | 67% | 58% | +5pp | $7,979 | $23,937 | — | $70,276 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 79 × $25.50 6.6% OTM over spot $23.93 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $1.47 mid) = $7,979 credit for the 10d cycle → $23,937/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25.50) 67% Breach risk 33% POP (stays ≤ $26.97) 77% EV / mo +$1,907 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 58% whole by 9mo vs 53% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $8,212/mo median; plan ~$5,584/mo after 68% keep · $39,581 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [0.8-3.3], measured ONLY among the 58% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 58% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$13,851 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $26 @ 70% POP 58% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 79 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.90/sh now → $2.76 mid-life (likely $3.50–$4.78) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.75/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,736 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 10, at $26 (overshoots $0.89). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $25.50 is $10 below CC-SS $35.41: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.25/sh (~25% of the $1.01 collected) or spot ≥ $26.97 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $30.49 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.41, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-123,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$119,777 − CC assignment net of premium (79 × $25.50): -$70,276 + Conservative CC premium (46 × $39): +$46 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-73,453 (+$49,547 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,098 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-70,355, the opportunity cost of earning $23,937/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.80 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$65,491, position total $-74,989 (+$48,011 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 124 × $25 | 31 Jul | 10d | 4.5% | 63% | 80% | +18pp | $15,996 | $47,988 | +$24,051 | $113,034 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 124 × $25 4.5% OTM over spot $23.93 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $1.64 mid) = $15,996 credit for the 10d cycle → $47,988/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25) 63% Breach risk 37% POP (stays ≤ $26.64) 74% EV / mo +$7,085 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +18pp 63% whole by 9mo vs 45% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $14,999/mo median; plan ~$10,199/mo after 68% keep · $71,332 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.9 mo [1.0-3.8], measured ONLY among the 63% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 67% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$17,301 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $26 @ 72% POP 62% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 124 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.79/sh now → $2.69 mid-life (likely $3.53–$4.91) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.29/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.40/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,021 simulated challenges: the $25 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $26 (overshoots $0.93). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $25 is $10 below CC-SS $35.41: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.32/sh (~25% of the $1.29 collected) or spot ≥ $26.64 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $25)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $30.49 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.41, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-123,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$119,777 − CC assignment net of premium (124 × $25): -$113,034 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $39): +$1 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-116,256 (+$6,744 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,098 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-113,158, the opportunity cost of earning $47,988/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.80 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$105,524, position total $-115,067 (+$7,933 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 20 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.835 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$119,777 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,098
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $26.50 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.20 | 120/125 | $24,000 | $24,015 | 84% | 87% | +$5,434 | -$104,468 | 378.2% | $-107,686 (vs do-nothing $-104,588) |
| $26 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.25 | 96/125 | $24,000 | $24,087 | 80% | 83% | +$2,587 | -$87,894 | 318.2% | $-91,088 (vs do-nothing $-87,990) |
| $25.50 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.32 | 75/125 | $24,000 | $24,150 | 74% | 79% | +$242 | -$71,892 | 260.2% | $-75,065 (vs do-nothing $-71,967) |
| $25 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.49 | 49/125 | $24,010 | $24,238 | 68% | 76% | +$2,337 | -$48,587 | 175.9% | $-51,734 (vs do-nothing $-48,636) |
| $26 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.19 | 114/125 | $23,940 | $23,973 | 68% | 80% | +$93 | -$93,659 | 339.0% | $-96,870 (vs do-nothing $-93,773) |
| $25.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.01 | 79/125 | $23,937 | $24,075 | 67% | 77% | +$1,907 | -$70,276 | 254.4% | $-73,453 (vs do-nothing $-70,355) |
| $25.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.56 | 87/125 | $23,951 | $24,065 | 65% | 75% | +$2,699 | -$72,607 | 262.8% | $-75,792 (vs do-nothing $-72,694) |
| $25 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.29 | 62/125 | $23,994 | $24,183 | 63% | 74% | +$3,542 | -$56,517 | 204.6% | $-59,677 (vs do-nothing $-56,579) |
| $25 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.74 | 78/125 | $23,951 | $24,092 | 62% | 77% | +$2,424 | -$67,592 | 244.7% | $-70,768 (vs do-nothing $-67,670) |
| $25 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.77 | 109/125 | $24,116 | $24,164 | 62% | 75% | +$312 | -$94,129 | 340.7% | $-97,335 (vs do-nothing $-94,238) |
| $24.50 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.58 | 42/125 | $24,360 | $24,609 | 61% | 72% | $-1,098 | -$43,368 | 157.0% | $-46,508 (vs do-nothing $-43,410) |
| $24.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.97 | 69/125 | $23,988 | $24,156 | 59% | 71% | +$2,537 | -$61,656 | 223.2% | $-64,823 (vs do-nothing $-61,725) |
| $24.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.49 | 54/125 | $24,138 | $24,351 | 59% | 72% | +$3,196 | -$50,845 | 184.1% | $-53,996 (vs do-nothing $-50,899) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $24 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.18 | 88/125 | $23,980 | $24,091 | 56% | 74% | +$199 | -$81,186 | 293.9% | $-84,372 (vs do-nothing $-81,274) |
| $24 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.17 | 63/125 | $24,125 | $24,311 | 55% | 76% | +$2,132 | -$58,185 | 210.6% | $-61,345 (vs do-nothing $-58,248) |
| $24 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.71 | 47/125 | $24,111 | $24,345 | 54% | 74% | +$2,814 | -$45,570 | 165.0% | $-48,714 (vs do-nothing $-45,617) |
| $24 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.78 | 31/125 | $24,180 | $24,462 | 53% | 68% | $-1,049 | -$32,940 | 119.2% | $-36,068 (vs do-nothing $-32,971) |
| $23.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.40 | 57/125 | $24,141 | $24,345 | 52% | 69% | +$1,867 | -$54,182 | 196.1% | $-57,337 (vs do-nothing $-54,239) |
| $23.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.95 | 41/125 | $23,985 | $24,237 | 50% | 71% | +$2,416 | -$40,818 | 147.8% | $-43,957 (vs do-nothing $-40,859) |
| $23.50 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.02 | 24/125 | $24,480 | $24,783 | 45% | 65% | $-1,181 | -$26,126 | 94.6% | $-29,247 (vs do-nothing $-26,150) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 125 contracts at the conservative CC.