125 contracts (12,500 sh) | BE SS: $39.71 | CC-SS: $34.00 (banked floor $33.92) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $277,625 | (ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 12500 |
| Normal income ref | $40,368/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $4,235/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-94,500 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 125 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 3d | 101 × $27.50 | 83% | $20,200 | $-6,399 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 31 Jul 2026 · 10d | 121 × $28 | 75% | $20,328 | $-7,181 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 125 × $30 | 24 Jul | 3d | 19.4% | 96% | 7% | +4pp | $875 | $8,750 | -$11,450 | $49,065 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 × $30 19.4% OTM over spot $25.12 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.11 mid) = $875 credit for the 3d cycle → $8,750/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $30) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $30.11) 97% EV / mo +$6,559 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 62% whole by 9mo vs 58% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $6,495/mo median; plan ~$4,417/mo after 68% keep · $22,720 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.6-2.9], measured ONLY among the 62% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 5% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$14,410 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $35 @ 78% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.73/sh now → $1.22 mid-life (likely $1.06–$2.02) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.15/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 151 simulated challenges: the $30 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 3, at $31 (overshoots $0.96). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $30 is $4 below CC-SS $34.00: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.07 collected) or spot ≥ $30.11 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $30)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $29.41 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.00, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-94,500 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$93,855 − CC assignment net of premium (125 × $30): -$49,065 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-49,710 (+$44,790 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-395 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-49,315, the opportunity cost of earning $8,750/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.82 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$59,375, position total $-51,298 (+$43,202 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 67 × $27.50 | 24 Jul | 3d | 9.5% | 83% | 36% | +4pp | $1,340 | $13,400 | -$6,800 | $42,178 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 67 × $27.50 9.5% OTM over spot $25.12 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.35 mid) = $1,340 credit for the 3d cycle → $13,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27.50) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $27.86) 86% EV / mo +$1,789 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 66% whole by 9mo vs 63% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $7,277/mo median; plan ~$4,948/mo after 68% keep · $22,851 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.6-2.8], measured ONLY among the 66% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,872 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $32 @ 79% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 67 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.52/sh now → $1.08 mid-life (likely $1.12–$1.98) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.88/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 657 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $28 (overshoots $0.90). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27.50 is $6 below CC-SS $34.00: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $27.86 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $29.41 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.00, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-94,500 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$93,855 − CC assignment net of premium (67 × $27.50): -$42,178 + Conservative CC premium (58 × $37.50): +$116 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-42,707 (+$51,793 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-395 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-42,312, the opportunity cost of earning $13,400/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.82 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$47,704, position total $-39,511 (+$54,989 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 101 × $27.50 | 24 Jul | 3d | 9.5% | 83% | 24% | +6pp | $2,020 | $20,200 | — | $63,582 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 101 × $27.50 9.5% OTM over spot $25.12 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.35 mid) = $2,020 credit for the 3d cycle → $20,200/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27.50) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $27.86) 86% EV / mo +$2,696 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 66% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $10,244/mo median; plan ~$6,966/mo after 68% keep · $31,806 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.0 mo [0.5-2.6], measured ONLY among the 66% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$8,851 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $32 @ 79% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 101 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.52/sh now → $1.08 mid-life (likely $1.13–$2.06) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.88/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 734 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $28 (overshoots $0.95). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27.50 is $6 below CC-SS $34.00: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $27.86 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $29.41 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.00, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-94,500 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$93,855 − CC assignment net of premium (101 × $27.50): -$63,582 + Conservative CC premium (24 × $37.50): +$48 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-64,178 (+$30,322 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-395 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-63,784, the opportunity cost of earning $20,200/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.82 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$71,912, position total $-63,787 (+$30,713 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 78 × $26.50 | 24 Jul | 3d | 5.5% | 72% | 58% | +16pp | $4,056 | $40,560 | +$20,360 | $54,407 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 78 × $26.50 5.5% OTM over spot $25.12 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.67 mid) = $4,056 credit for the 3d cycle → $40,560/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26.50) 72% Breach risk 28% POP (stays ≤ $27.17) 79% EV / mo +$12,055 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +16pp 70% whole by 9mo vs 54% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $16,180/mo median; plan ~$11,003/mo after 68% keep · $52,800 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.7-3.6], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 41% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,901 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $32 @ 83% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 78 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.44/sh now → $1.02 mid-life (likely $1.21–$2.11) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.52/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.50/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,216 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $27 (overshoots $0.95). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $26.50 is $7 below CC-SS $34.00: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.13/sh (~25% of the $0.52 collected) or spot ≥ $27.17 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $29.41 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.00, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-94,500 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$93,855 − CC assignment net of premium (78 × $26.50): -$54,407 + Conservative CC premium (47 × $37.50): +$94 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-54,957 (+$39,543 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-395 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-54,563, the opportunity cost of earning $40,560/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.82 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$60,840, position total $-52,669 (+$41,831 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | 33% normal | 112 × $29 | 31 Jul | 10d | 15.4% | 80% | 42% | +4pp | $4,480 | $13,440 | -$6,888 | $51,466 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 112 × $29 15.4% OTM over spot $25.12 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.95 mid) = $4,480 credit for the 10d cycle → $13,440/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $29) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $29.95) 84% EV / mo $-2,066 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 64% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $7,082/mo median; plan ~$4,816/mo after 68% keep · $21,358 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.5-2.4], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$16,580 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $32 @ 75% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 112 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.66/sh now → $1.88 mid-life (likely $1.94–$2.94) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 955 simulated challenges: the $29 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $30 (overshoots $1.02). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $29 is $5 below CC-SS $34.00: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.40 collected) or spot ≥ $29.95 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $29)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $29.41 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.00, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-94,500 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$93,855 − CC assignment net of premium (112 × $29): -$51,466 + Conservative CC premium (13 × $37.50): +$26 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-52,085 (+$42,415 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-395 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-51,690, the opportunity cost of earning $13,440/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.82 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$60,704, position total $-52,601 (+$41,899 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 121 × $28 | 31 Jul | 10d | 11.5% | 75% | 42% | +6pp | $6,776 | $20,328 | — | $65,766 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 121 × $28 11.5% OTM over spot $25.12 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.88 mid) = $6,776 credit for the 10d cycle → $20,328/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $28) 75% Breach risk 25% POP (stays ≤ $28.88) 80% EV / mo $-1,844 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 64% whole by 9mo vs 58% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $9,392/mo median; plan ~$6,387/mo after 68% keep · $35,210 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.6-3.0], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 42% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$14,833 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $31 @ 75% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 121 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.52/sh now → $1.79 mid-life (likely $1.97–$2.86) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.56/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.23/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,273 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $29 (overshoots $0.95). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $28 is $6 below CC-SS $34.00: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.56 collected) or spot ≥ $28.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $29.41 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.00, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-94,500 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$93,855 − CC assignment net of premium (121 × $28): -$65,766 + Conservative CC premium (4 × $37.50): +$8 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-66,403 (+$28,097 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-395 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-66,008, the opportunity cost of earning $20,328/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.82 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$75,746, position total $-67,661 (+$26,839 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 104 × $25.50 | 31 Jul | 10d | 1.5% | 57% | 93% | +9pp | $13,520 | $40,560 | +$20,232 | $74,830 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 104 × $25.50 1.5% OTM over spot $25.12 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $1.67 mid) = $13,520 credit for the 10d cycle → $40,560/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25.50) 57% Breach risk 43% POP (stays ≤ $27.18) 70% EV / mo $-3,453 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 69% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $13,466/mo median; plan ~$9,157/mo after 68% keep · $40,903 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.6-2.9], measured ONLY among the 69% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 76% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,693 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $33 @ 89% POP 88% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 104 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.20/sh now → $1.56 mid-life (likely $2.19–$3.06) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.26/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,284 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 10, at $27 (overshoots $1.05). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $25.50 is $8 below CC-SS $34.00: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.33/sh (~25% of the $1.30 collected) or spot ≥ $27.18 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $29.41 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.00, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-94,500 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$93,855 − CC assignment net of premium (104 × $25.50): -$74,830 + Conservative CC premium (21 × $37.50): +$42 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-75,433 (+$19,067 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-395 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-75,038, the opportunity cost of earning $40,560/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.82 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$83,408, position total $-75,289 (+$19,211 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 23 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.846 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$93,855 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-395
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $27.50 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.20 | 101/125 | $20,200 | $20,344 | 83% | 86% | +$2,696 | -$63,582 | 230.2% | $-64,178 (vs do-nothing $-63,784) |
| $27 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.20 | 101/125 | $20,200 | $20,344 | 78% | 82% | $-5,540 | -$68,632 | 248.4% | $-69,228 (vs do-nothing $-68,834) |
| $28 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.56 | 121/125 | $20,328 | $20,352 | 75% | 80% | $-1,844 | -$65,766 | 238.1% | $-66,403 (vs do-nothing $-66,008) |
| $27.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.65 | 104/125 | $20,280 | $20,406 | 72% | 78% | $-2,509 | -$60,790 | 220.1% | $-61,393 (vs do-nothing $-60,998) |
| $26.50 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.52 | 39/125 | $20,280 | $20,796 | 72% | 79% | +$6,028 | -$27,203 | 98.5% | $-27,676 (vs do-nothing $-27,281) |
| $28 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.30 | 125/125 | $20,312 | $20,312 | 70% | 77% | +$445 | -$58,690 | 212.5% | $-59,335 (vs do-nothing $-58,940) |
| $27.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.13 | 102/125 | $20,340 | $20,478 | 69% | 76% | +$421 | -$54,725 | 198.1% | $-55,324 (vs do-nothing $-54,929) |
| $27 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.05 | 65/125 | $20,475 | $20,835 | 68% | 76% | +$3,538 | -$38,644 | 139.9% | $-39,169 (vs do-nothing $-38,774) |
| $27 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.36 | 85/125 | $20,400 | $20,640 | 66% | 75% | +$1,429 | -$47,899 | 173.4% | $-48,464 (vs do-nothing $-48,069) |
| $27 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.56 | 104/125 | $20,280 | $20,406 | 65% | 74% | $-1,912 | -$56,526 | 204.6% | $-57,129 (vs do-nothing $-56,734) |
| $26 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.55 | 37/125 | $20,350 | $20,878 | 65% | 75% | +$1,445 | -$27,547 | 99.7% | $-28,016 (vs do-nothing $-27,621) |
| $26.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.04 | 65/125 | $20,280 | $20,640 | 65% | 74% | +$253 | -$41,959 | 151.9% | $-42,484 (vs do-nothing $-42,089) |
| $26.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.25 | 92/125 | $20,294 | $20,492 | 63% | 73% | $-3,099 | -$57,456 | 208.0% | $-58,035 (vs do-nothing $-57,640) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $26 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.90 | 75/125 | $20,250 | $20,550 | 61% | 72% | $-6,913 | -$53,214 | 192.6% | $-53,759 (vs do-nothing $-53,364) |
| $26 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.55 | 74/125 | $20,241 | $20,547 | 60% | 71% | $-1,120 | -$47,695 | 172.6% | $-48,237 (vs do-nothing $-47,843) |
| $26 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.90 | 85/125 | $20,188 | $20,428 | 60% | 71% | $-1,848 | -$51,809 | 187.5% | $-52,374 (vs do-nothing $-51,979) |
| $25.50 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.85 | 24/125 | $20,400 | $21,006 | 58% | 71% | +$2,662 | -$18,349 | 66.4% | $-18,791 (vs do-nothing $-18,397) |
| $25.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.55 | 74/125 | $20,241 | $20,547 | 57% | 70% | $-3,919 | -$51,395 | 186.0% | $-51,937 (vs do-nothing $-51,543) |
| $25.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.30 | 52/125 | $20,280 | $20,718 | 57% | 70% | $-1,727 | -$37,415 | 135.4% | $-37,914 (vs do-nothing $-37,519) |
| $25 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.10 | 77/125 | $20,212 | $20,500 | 55% | 68% | $-3,861 | -$53,093 | 192.2% | $-53,642 (vs do-nothing $-53,247) |
| $25 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.95 | 59/125 | $20,303 | $20,699 | 54% | 68% | $-1,398 | -$41,567 | 150.5% | $-42,079 (vs do-nothing $-41,685) |
| $25 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.75 | 39/125 | $20,475 | $20,991 | 53% | 68% | +$1,018 | -$28,256 | 102.3% | $-28,729 (vs do-nothing $-28,334) |
| $25 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.79 | 26/125 | $20,540 | $21,134 | 50% | 66% | $-4,195 | -$21,334 | 77.2% | $-21,780 (vs do-nothing $-21,386) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 125 contracts at the conservative CC.