125 contracts (12,500 sh) | BE SS: $39.71 | CC-SS: $33.98 (banked floor $33.90) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $277,625 | (ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 12500 |
| Normal income ref | $55,195/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $4,106/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-88,250 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 125 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 2d | 115 × $28.50 | 89% | $27,600 | $3,145 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 31 Jul 2026 · 9d | 122 × $28.50 | 75% | $27,653 | $-2,932 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | 33% normal | 102 × $29 | 24 Jul | 2d | 12.8% | 92% | 16% | +5pp | $1,224 | $18,360 | -$9,240 | $49,552 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 102 × $29 12.8% OTM over spot $25.70 24 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.21 mid) = $1,224 credit for the 2d cycle → $18,360/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $29) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $29.21) 93% EV / mo +$11,333 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 74% whole by 9mo vs 68% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $14,453/mo median; plan ~$9,828/mo after 68% keep · $26,776 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.4-2.0], measured ONLY among the 74% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$10,096 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $34 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 102 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.57/sh now → $1.11 mid-life (likely $1.14–$2.15) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.99/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 243 simulated challenges: the $29 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $30 (overshoots $0.96). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $29 is $5 below CC-SS $33.98: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.12 collected) or spot ≥ $29.21 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $29)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $29.48 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.98, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-88,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$88,108 − CC assignment net of premium (102 × $29): -$49,552 + Conservative CC premium (23 × $36): +$575 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-49,119 (+$39,131 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $2,983 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-52,102, the opportunity cost of earning $18,360/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.85 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$58,446, position total $-48,727 (+$39,523 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 125 × $29 | 24 Jul | 2d | 12.8% | 92% | 16% | +6pp | $1,500 | $22,500 | -$5,100 | $60,725 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 × $29 12.8% OTM over spot $25.70 24 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.21 mid) = $1,500 credit for the 2d cycle → $22,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $29) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $29.21) 93% EV / mo +$13,888 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 76% whole by 9mo vs 70% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $15,004/mo median; plan ~$10,203/mo after 68% keep · $35,632 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.5-2.9], measured ONLY among the 76% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$12,373 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $34 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.57/sh now → $1.11 mid-life (likely $1.18–$2.07) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.99/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 256 simulated challenges: the $29 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $30 (overshoots $0.88). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $29 is $5 below CC-SS $33.98: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.12 collected) or spot ≥ $29.21 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $29)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $29.48 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.98, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-88,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$88,108 − CC assignment net of premium (125 × $29): -$60,725 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-60,868 (+$27,382 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $2,983 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-63,850, the opportunity cost of earning $22,500/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.85 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$71,625, position total $-62,481 (+$25,769 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 115 × $28.50 | 24 Jul | 2d | 10.9% | 89% | 13% | +8pp | $1,840 | $27,600 | — | $61,157 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 115 × $28.50 10.9% OTM over spot $25.70 24 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.28 mid) = $1,840 credit for the 2d cycle → $27,600/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $28.50) 89% Breach risk 11% POP (stays ≤ $28.79) 91% EV / mo +$14,258 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 72% whole by 9mo vs 64% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $16,800/mo median; plan ~$11,424/mo after 68% keep · $46,749 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.5-2.9], measured ONLY among the 72% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$10,605 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $34 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 115 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.53/sh now → $1.08 mid-life (likely $1.15–$2.30) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.92/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 393 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $29 (overshoots $0.94). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $28.50 is $5 below CC-SS $33.98: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.16 collected) or spot ≥ $28.79 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $29.48 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.98, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-88,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$88,108 − CC assignment net of premium (115 × $28.50): -$61,157 + Conservative CC premium (10 × $36): +$250 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-61,050 (+$27,200 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $2,983 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-64,032, the opportunity cost of earning $27,600/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.85 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$71,185, position total $-61,791 (+$26,459 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 97 × $27.50 | 24 Jul | 2d | 7.0% | 79% | 43% | +15pp | $3,686 | $55,290 | +$27,690 | $59,151 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 97 × $27.50 7.0% OTM over spot $25.70 24 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.47 mid) = $3,686 credit for the 2d cycle → $55,290/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27.50) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $27.96) 84% EV / mo +$26,418 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +15pp 80% whole by 9mo vs 65% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $29,276/mo median; plan ~$19,908/mo after 68% keep · $50,895 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.0 mo [0.5-2.2], measured ONLY among the 80% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 25% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,284 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $35 @ 84% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 97 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.45/sh now → $1.03 mid-life (likely $1.17–$2.14) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.38/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.65/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 742 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 2, at $28 (overshoots $0.92). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27.50 is $6 below CC-SS $33.98: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.38 collected) or spot ≥ $27.96 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $29.48 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.98, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-88,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$88,108 − CC assignment net of premium (97 × $27.50): -$59,151 + Conservative CC premium (28 × $36): +$700 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-58,593 (+$29,657 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $2,983 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-61,576, the opportunity cost of earning $55,290/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.85 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$67,609, position total $-57,765 (+$30,485 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 125 × $32 | 31 Jul | 9d | 24.5% | 90% | 21% | -0pp | $2,000 | $6,667 | -$20,987 | $22,725 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 × $32 24.5% OTM over spot $25.70 31 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.36 mid) = $2,000 credit for the 9d cycle → $6,667/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $32) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $32.36) 91% EV / mo +$51 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -0pp 64% whole by 9mo vs 65% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,286/mo median; plan ~$2,914/mo after 68% keep · $13,809 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.5-2.6], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 17% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$23,729 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $34 @ 73% POP 65% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.91/sh now → $2.06 mid-life (likely $1.83–$3.01) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.90/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 524 simulated challenges: the $32 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $33 (overshoots $1.26). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $32 is $2 below CC-SS $33.98: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.16 collected) or spot ≥ $32.36 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $32)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $29.48 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.98, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-88,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$88,108 − CC assignment net of premium (125 × $32): -$22,725 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,868 (+$65,382 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $2,983 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-25,850, the opportunity cost of earning $6,667/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.85 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$33,625, position total $-24,481 (+$63,769 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 112 × $30 | 31 Jul | 9d | 16.7% | 82% | 38% | +2pp | $5,488 | $18,293 | -$9,360 | $39,066 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 112 × $30 16.7% OTM over spot $25.70 31 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.64 mid) = $5,488 credit for the 9d cycle → $18,293/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $30) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $30.64) 85% EV / mo +$3,380 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 69% whole by 9mo vs 68% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $11,019/mo median; plan ~$7,493/mo after 68% keep · $27,524 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.5-2.2], measured ONLY among the 69% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 30% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$15,512 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $33 @ 76% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 112 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.65/sh now → $1.88 mid-life (likely $1.87–$2.98) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.49/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.39/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 890 simulated challenges: the $30 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $31 (overshoots $1.17). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $30 is $4 below CC-SS $33.98: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.49 collected) or spot ≥ $30.64 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $30)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $29.48 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.98, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-88,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$88,108 − CC assignment net of premium (112 × $30): -$39,066 + Conservative CC premium (13 × $36): +$325 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-38,883 (+$49,367 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $2,983 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-41,866, the opportunity cost of earning $18,293/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.85 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$48,832, position total $-39,363 (+$48,887 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 122 × $28.50 | 31 Jul | 9d | 10.9% | 75% | 43% | +5pp | $8,296 | $27,653 | — | $58,536 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 122 × $28.50 10.9% OTM over spot $25.70 31 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.99 mid) = $8,296 credit for the 9d cycle → $27,653/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $28.50) 75% Breach risk 25% POP (stays ≤ $29.48) 80% EV / mo +$2,837 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 70% whole by 9mo vs 66% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $13,503/mo median; plan ~$9,182/mo after 68% keep · $33,914 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.5-2.8], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 43% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$12,960 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $33 @ 79% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 122 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.46/sh now → $1.74 mid-life (likely $2.00–$2.92) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.68/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.06/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,295 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 9, at $30 (overshoots $1.08). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $28.50 is $5 below CC-SS $33.98: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.68 collected) or spot ≥ $29.48 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $29.48 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.98, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-88,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$88,108 − CC assignment net of premium (122 × $28.50): -$58,536 + Conservative CC premium (3 × $36): +$75 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-58,603 (+$29,647 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $2,983 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-61,586, the opportunity cost of earning $27,653/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.85 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$69,174, position total $-59,955 (+$28,295 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 119 × $27 | 31 Jul | 9d | 5.0% | 64% | 77% | +11pp | $16,660 | $55,533 | +$27,880 | $66,378 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 119 × $27 5.0% OTM over spot $25.70 31 Jul 2026 (9d, $1.50 mid) = $16,660 credit for the 9d cycle → $55,533/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27) 64% Breach risk 36% POP (stays ≤ $28.50) 74% EV / mo +$12,090 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +11pp 74% whole by 9mo vs 64% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $24,502/mo median; plan ~$16,662/mo after 68% keep · $50,282 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.0 mo [0.3-2.5], measured ONLY among the 74% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 63% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,543 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $37 @ 92% POP 92% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 119 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.28/sh now → $1.61 mid-life (likely $2.14–$2.99) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.21/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,904 simulated challenges: the $27 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $28 (overshoots $1.08). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27 is $7 below CC-SS $33.98: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.35/sh (~25% of the $1.40 collected) or spot ≥ $28.50 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $27)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $29.48 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.98, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-88,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$88,108 − CC assignment net of premium (119 × $27): -$66,378 + Conservative CC premium (6 × $36): +$150 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-66,371 (+$21,879 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $2,983 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-69,353, the opportunity cost of earning $55,533/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.85 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$76,755, position total $-67,461 (+$20,789 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 22 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.852 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$88,108 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $2,983
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $28.50 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.16 | 115/125 | $27,600 | $28,069 | 89% | 91% | +$14,258 | -$61,157 | 221.4% | $-61,050 (vs do-nothing $-64,032) |
| $28 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.22 | 84/125 | $27,720 | $29,642 | 85% | 87% | +$11,844 | -$48,367 | 175.1% | $-47,485 (vs do-nothing $-50,467) |
| $27.50 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.38 | 49/125 | $27,930 | $31,492 | 79% | 84% | +$13,345 | -$29,880 | 108.2% | $-28,123 (vs do-nothing $-31,105) |
| $28.50 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.68 | 122/125 | $27,653 | $27,794 | 75% | 80% | +$2,837 | -$58,536 | 211.9% | $-58,603 (vs do-nothing $-61,586) |
| $27 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.40 | 46/125 | $27,600 | $31,303 | 73% | 80% | +$7,328 | -$30,259 | 109.5% | $-28,426 (vs do-nothing $-31,409) |
| $28 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.86 | 97/125 | $27,807 | $29,119 | 71% | 78% | +$2,835 | -$49,645 | 179.7% | $-49,087 (vs do-nothing $-52,070) |
| $28 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.54 | 96/125 | $27,720 | $29,079 | 68% | 76% | +$4,411 | -$42,605 | 154.2% | $-42,022 (vs do-nothing $-45,005) |
| $27.50 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.22 | 68/125 | $27,653 | $30,325 | 68% | 76% | +$7,026 | -$35,754 | 129.4% | $-34,472 (vs do-nothing $-37,454) |
| $27.50 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.71 | 87/125 | $27,894 | $29,676 | 65% | 74% | +$4,161 | -$41,482 | 150.2% | $-40,674 (vs do-nothing $-43,657) |
| $26.50 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.55 | 34/125 | $28,050 | $32,316 | 65% | 76% | +$5,383 | -$23,555 | 85.3% | $-21,423 (vs do-nothing $-24,405) |
| $27 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.40 | 60/125 | $28,000 | $31,047 | 64% | 74% | +$6,096 | -$33,468 | 121.2% | $-31,986 (vs do-nothing $-34,968) |
| $27 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.90 | 78/125 | $27,788 | $29,991 | 63% | 73% | +$3,939 | -$39,608 | 143.4% | $-38,576 (vs do-nothing $-41,558) |
| $27 | 23d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.94 | 110/125 | $27,835 | $28,538 | 62% | 73% | +$2,386 | -$55,418 | 200.6% | $-55,186 (vs do-nothing $-58,168) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $26.50 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.60 | 52/125 | $27,733 | $31,155 | 60% | 72% | +$5,635 | -$30,566 | 110.6% | $-28,883 (vs do-nothing $-31,866) |
| $26.50 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.10 | 71/125 | $27,956 | $30,488 | 60% | 72% | +$3,690 | -$38,184 | 138.2% | $-36,976 (vs do-nothing $-39,959) |
| $26 | 23d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.36 | 90/125 | $27,704 | $29,345 | 57% | 70% | +$2,239 | -$50,562 | 183.0% | $-49,830 (vs do-nothing $-52,812) |
| $26 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.74 | 25/125 | $27,750 | $32,438 | 57% | 72% | +$4,040 | -$18,095 | 65.5% | $-15,737 (vs do-nothing $-18,720) |
| $26 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.32 | 64/125 | $27,840 | $30,699 | 57% | 70% | +$3,453 | -$36,211 | 131.1% | $-34,829 (vs do-nothing $-37,811) |
| $26 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.82 | 46/125 | $27,907 | $31,610 | 56% | 70% | +$4,937 | -$28,327 | 102.5% | $-26,494 (vs do-nothing $-29,477) |
| $25.50 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.56 | 58/125 | $27,840 | $30,981 | 54% | 69% | +$3,267 | -$34,324 | 124.3% | $-32,792 (vs do-nothing $-35,774) |
| $25.50 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.06 | 41/125 | $28,153 | $32,091 | 52% | 68% | +$3,498 | -$26,314 | 95.3% | $-24,356 (vs do-nothing $-27,339) |
| $25.50 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.99 | 19/125 | $28,215 | $33,184 | 48% | 69% | +$3,414 | -$14,227 | 51.5% | $-11,720 (vs do-nothing $-14,702) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 125 contracts at the conservative CC.