125 contracts (12,500 sh) | BE SS: $39.71 | CC-SS: $34.02 (banked floor $33.94) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $277,625 | (ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 12500 |
| Normal income ref | $56,250/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-90,875 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 125 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 2d | 125 × $28.50 | 90% | $24,375 | $1,337 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 31 Jul 2026 · 9d | 118 × $27.50 | 69% | $28,320 | $-6,281 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 33% normal | 96 × $28.50 | 24 Jul | 2d | 11.8% | 90% | 20% | +5pp | $1,248 | $18,720 | -$5,655 | $51,772 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 96 × $28.50 11.8% OTM over spot $25.50 24 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.24 mid) = $1,248 credit for the 2d cycle → $18,720/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $28.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $28.74) 92% EV / mo +$9,948 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 70% whole by 9mo vs 66% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $13,698/mo median; plan ~$9,315/mo after 68% keep · $37,375 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.6-2.9], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$11,435 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $34 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 96 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.87/sh now → $1.32 mid-life (likely $1.43–$2.65) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.19/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 301 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $29 (overshoots $0.94). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $28.50 is $6 below CC-SS $34.02: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.13 collected) or spot ≥ $28.74 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $29.45 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.02, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-90,875 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$90,556 − CC assignment net of premium (96 × $28.50): -$51,772 + Conservative CC premium (29 × $35): +$725 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-51,366 (+$39,509 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $2,806 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-54,172, the opportunity cost of earning $18,720/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.83 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$59,520, position total $-50,539 (+$40,336 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 🛡 safe yield | 125 × $28.50 | 24 Jul | 2d | 11.8% | 90% | 9% | +7pp | $1,625 | $24,375 | — | $67,412 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 × $28.50 11.8% OTM over spot $25.50 24 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.24 mid) = $1,625 credit for the 2d cycle → $24,375/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $28.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $28.74) 92% EV / mo +$12,953 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 74% whole by 9mo vs 67% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $16,123/mo median; plan ~$10,963/mo after 68% keep · $35,072 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.6-2.5], measured ONLY among the 74% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$14,889 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $34 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.87/sh now → $1.32 mid-life (likely $1.35–$2.44) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.19/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 279 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $29 (overshoots $0.83). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $28.50 is $6 below CC-SS $34.02: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.13 collected) or spot ≥ $28.74 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $29.45 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.02, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-90,875 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$90,556 − CC assignment net of premium (125 × $28.50): -$67,412 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-67,731 (+$23,144 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $2,806 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-70,537, the opportunity cost of earning $24,375/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.83 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$77,500, position total $-69,244 (+$21,631 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 50% normal | 57 × $27.50 | 24 Jul | 2d | 7.8% | 82% | 37% | +11pp | $1,881 | $28,215 | +$3,840 | $35,300 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 57 × $27.50 7.8% OTM over spot $25.50 24 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.44 mid) = $1,881 credit for the 2d cycle → $28,215/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27.50) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $27.94) 87% EV / mo +$15,314 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +11pp 74% whole by 9mo vs 64% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $18,769/mo median; plan ~$12,763/mo after 68% keep · $46,360 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.5-2.7], measured ONLY among the 74% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 21% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,267 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $33 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 57 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.77/sh now → $1.25 mid-life (likely $1.40–$2.68) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.33/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.92/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 621 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $28 (overshoots $0.90). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27.50 is $7 below CC-SS $34.02: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.33 collected) or spot ≥ $27.94 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $29.45 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.02, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-90,875 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$90,556 − CC assignment net of premium (57 × $27.50): -$35,300 + Conservative CC premium (68 × $35): +$1,700 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-33,919 (+$56,956 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $2,806 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-36,725, the opportunity cost of earning $28,215/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.83 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$39,900, position total $-29,944 (+$60,931 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 114 × $27.50 | 24 Jul | 2d | 7.8% | 82% | 37% | +13pp | $3,762 | $56,430 | +$32,055 | $70,600 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 114 × $27.50 7.8% OTM over spot $25.50 24 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.44 mid) = $3,762 credit for the 2d cycle → $56,430/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27.50) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $27.94) 87% EV / mo +$30,628 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +13pp 80% whole by 9mo vs 68% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $31,727/mo median; plan ~$21,574/mo after 68% keep · $54,584 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.0 mo [0.5-2.4], measured ONLY among the 80% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$10,535 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $33 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 114 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.77/sh now → $1.25 mid-life (likely $1.44–$2.72) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.33/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.92/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 666 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $28 (overshoots $0.93). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27.50 is $7 below CC-SS $34.02: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.33 collected) or spot ≥ $27.94 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $29.45 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.02, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-90,875 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$90,556 − CC assignment net of premium (114 × $27.50): -$70,600 + Conservative CC premium (11 × $35): +$275 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-70,643 (+$20,232 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $2,806 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-73,450, the opportunity cost of earning $56,430/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.83 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$79,800, position total $-71,269 (+$19,606 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 125 × $34 | 31 Jul | 9d | 33.3% | 95% | 10% | -1pp | $1,375 | $4,583 | -$23,737 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 × $34 33.3% OTM over spot $25.50 31 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.32 mid) = $1,375 credit for the 9d cycle → $4,583/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $34) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $34.32) 96% EV / mo +$2,404 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -1pp 66% whole by 9mo vs 66% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,394/mo median; plan ~$2,308/mo after 68% keep · $10,329 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.6-2.9], measured ONLY among the 66% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$26,786 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $36 @ 74% POP 64% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.18/sh now → $2.25 mid-life (likely $1.65–$2.99) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.14/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 209 simulated challenges: the $34 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 9, at $35 (overshoots $1.28). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $34 is at/above CC-SS $34.02: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.11 collected) or spot ≥ $34.32 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $34)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $29.45 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.02, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-90,875 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$90,556 − CC assignment net of premium (125 × $34): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-319 (+$90,556 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $2,806 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,125, the opportunity cost of earning $4,583/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.83 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,000, position total $-744 (+$90,131 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 114 × $30 | 31 Jul | 9d | 17.6% | 83% | 35% | +3pp | $5,586 | $18,620 | -$9,700 | $40,276 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 114 × $30 17.6% OTM over spot $25.50 31 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.59 mid) = $5,586 credit for the 9d cycle → $18,620/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $30) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $30.59) 86% EV / mo +$5,879 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 70% whole by 9mo vs 66% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $11,721/mo median; plan ~$7,970/mo after 68% keep · $27,315 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.5-2.3], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 25% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$15,745 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $34 @ 77% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 114 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.64/sh now → $1.87 mid-life (likely $1.89–$2.91) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.49/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.38/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 759 simulated challenges: the $30 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $31 (overshoots $1.10). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $30 is $4 below CC-SS $34.02: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.49 collected) or spot ≥ $30.59 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $30)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $29.45 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.02, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-90,875 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$90,556 − CC assignment net of premium (114 × $30): -$40,276 + Conservative CC premium (11 × $35): +$275 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-40,319 (+$50,556 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $2,806 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-43,126, the opportunity cost of earning $18,620/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.83 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$49,476, position total $-40,945 (+$49,930 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 118 × $27.50 | 31 Jul | 9d | 7.8% | 69% | 53% | +6pp | $8,496 | $28,320 | — | $68,475 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 118 × $27.50 7.8% OTM over spot $25.50 31 Jul 2026 (9d, $1.38 mid) = $8,496 credit for the 9d cycle → $28,320/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27.50) 69% Breach risk 31% POP (stays ≤ $28.88) 78% EV / mo $-4,723 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 70% whole by 9mo vs 65% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $13,484/mo median; plan ~$9,169/mo after 68% keep · $26,523 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.4-2.0], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 53% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$10,955 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $31 @ 78% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 118 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.33/sh now → $1.65 mid-life (likely $2.01–$2.87) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.72/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.93/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,601 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 9, at $29 (overshoots $1.00). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27.50 is $7 below CC-SS $34.02: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.18/sh (~25% of the $0.72 collected) or spot ≥ $28.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $29.45 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.02, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-90,875 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$90,556 − CC assignment net of premium (118 × $27.50): -$68,475 + Conservative CC premium (7 × $35): +$175 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-68,618 (+$22,257 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $2,806 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-71,425, the opportunity cost of earning $28,320/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.83 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$77,998, position total $-69,567 (+$21,308 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 116 × $26.50 | 31 Jul | 9d | 3.9% | 62% | 82% | +11pp | $16,936 | $56,453 | +$28,133 | $70,330 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 116 × $26.50 3.9% OTM over spot $25.50 31 Jul 2026 (9d, $1.77 mid) = $16,936 credit for the 9d cycle → $56,453/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26.50) 62% Breach risk 38% POP (stays ≤ $28.27) 74% EV / mo +$11,341 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +11pp 80% whole by 9mo vs 69% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $25,995/mo median; plan ~$17,676/mo after 68% keep · $37,263 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.4-2.0], measured ONLY among the 80% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 66% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,191 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $34 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 116 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.21/sh now → $1.56 mid-life (likely $2.09–$2.92) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.46/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.10/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,971 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $28 (overshoots $1.01). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $26.50 is $8 below CC-SS $34.02: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.36/sh (~25% of the $1.46 collected) or spot ≥ $28.27 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $29.45 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.02, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-90,875 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$90,556 − CC assignment net of premium (116 × $26.50): -$70,330 + Conservative CC premium (9 × $35): +$225 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-70,424 (+$20,451 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $2,806 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-73,230, the opportunity cost of earning $56,453/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.83 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$79,692, position total $-71,211 (+$19,664 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 21 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.850 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$90,556 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $2,806
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $27.50 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.33 | 57/125 | $28,215 | $31,402 | 82% | 87% | +$15,314 | -$35,300 | 127.8% | $-33,919 (vs do-nothing $-36,725) |
| $27 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.35 | 54/125 | $28,350 | $31,678 | 76% | 83% | +$9,478 | -$36,034 | 130.4% | $-34,578 (vs do-nothing $-37,384) |
| $28 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.23 | 122/125 | $28,136 | $28,277 | 70% | 79% | +$3,800 | -$58,474 | 211.7% | $-58,718 (vs do-nothing $-61,524) |
| $27.50 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.72 | 118/125 | $28,320 | $28,648 | 69% | 78% | $-4,723 | -$68,475 | 247.9% | $-68,618 (vs do-nothing $-71,425) |
| $26.50 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.46 | 41/125 | $28,290 | $32,228 | 69% | 80% | +$6,651 | -$28,958 | 104.8% | $-27,177 (vs do-nothing $-29,983) |
| $27.50 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.58 | 95/125 | $28,144 | $29,550 | 67% | 76% | +$6,527 | -$46,958 | 170.0% | $-46,527 (vs do-nothing $-49,333) |
| $27 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.29 | 66/125 | $28,380 | $31,146 | 66% | 75% | +$6,537 | -$37,837 | 137.0% | $-36,681 (vs do-nothing $-39,487) |
| $27 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.76 | 86/125 | $28,380 | $30,208 | 64% | 76% | +$6,113 | -$45,261 | 163.8% | $-44,605 (vs do-nothing $-47,411) |
| $27 | 23d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.84 | 118/125 | $28,320 | $28,648 | 64% | 74% | +$2,572 | -$61,159 | 221.4% | $-61,302 (vs do-nothing $-64,109) |
| $26.50 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.46 | 58/125 | $28,227 | $31,367 | 62% | 74% | +$5,670 | -$35,165 | 127.3% | $-33,809 (vs do-nothing $-36,615) |
| $26.50 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.96 | 77/125 | $28,298 | $30,548 | 61% | 73% | +$5,677 | -$42,835 | 155.1% | $-41,953 (vs do-nothing $-44,760) |
| $26 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.63 | 30/125 | $28,350 | $32,803 | 61% | 76% | +$5,101 | -$22,179 | 80.3% | $-20,123 (vs do-nothing $-22,929) |
| $26 | 23d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.24 | 97/125 | $28,341 | $29,653 | 58% | 71% | +$2,334 | -$56,095 | 203.1% | $-55,713 (vs do-nothing $-58,520) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $26 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.17 | 70/125 | $28,481 | $31,059 | 58% | 74% | +$5,220 | -$40,971 | 148.3% | $-39,914 (vs do-nothing $-42,721) |
| $26 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.69 | 50/125 | $28,167 | $31,682 | 58% | 71% | +$5,448 | -$31,665 | 114.6% | $-30,108 (vs do-nothing $-32,915) |
| $25.50 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.40 | 63/125 | $28,350 | $31,256 | 55% | 70% | +$4,749 | -$38,575 | 139.6% | $-37,343 (vs do-nothing $-40,150) |
| $25.50 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.91 | 45/125 | $28,650 | $32,400 | 54% | 69% | +$4,899 | -$29,758 | 107.7% | $-28,077 (vs do-nothing $-30,883) |
| $25 | 23d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.71 | 80/125 | $28,278 | $30,388 | 52% | 68% | +$2,089 | -$50,504 | 182.8% | $-49,697 (vs do-nothing $-52,504) |
| $25.50 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.86 | 22/125 | $28,380 | $33,208 | 52% | 72% | +$4,142 | -$16,858 | 61.0% | $-14,602 (vs do-nothing $-17,408) |
| $25 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.16 | 40/125 | $28,800 | $32,784 | 49% | 69% | +$4,419 | -$27,452 | 99.4% | $-25,646 (vs do-nothing $-28,452) |
| $25 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.13 | 17/125 | $28,815 | $33,878 | 43% | 66% | +$3,099 | -$13,418 | 48.6% | $-11,037 (vs do-nothing $-13,843) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 125 contracts at the conservative CC.