125 contracts (12,500 sh) | BE SS: $39.71 | CC-SS: $33.85 (banked floor $33.77) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $277,625 | (ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 12500 |
| Normal income ref | $56,250/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $4,106/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-90,875 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 125 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 2d | 57 × $27.50 | 84% | $28,215 | $6,371 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 31 Jul 2026 · 9d | 118 × $27.50 | 70% | $28,320 | $-6,395 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 33% normal | 96 × $28.50 | 24 Jul | 2d | 12.3% | 91% | 18% | +5pp | $1,248 | $18,720 | -$9,495 | $50,133 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 96 × $28.50 12.3% OTM over spot $25.38 24 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.24 mid) = $1,248 credit for the 2d cycle → $18,720/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $28.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $28.74) 93% EV / mo +$11,147 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 71% whole by 9mo vs 66% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $13,914/mo median; plan ~$9,461/mo after 68% keep · $37,469 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.6-2.9], measured ONLY among the 71% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$12,423 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $32 @ 77% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 96 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.01/sh now → $1.42 mid-life (likely $1.50–$2.90) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.29/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 287 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $29 (overshoots $0.93). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $28.50 is $5 below CC-SS $33.85: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.13 collected) or spot ≥ $28.74 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $29.44 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.85, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-90,875 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$90,017 − CC assignment net of premium (96 × $28.50): -$50,133 + Conservative CC premium (29 × $35): +$725 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-50,266 (+$40,609 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $2,267 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-52,533, the opportunity cost of earning $18,720/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.83 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$59,520, position total $-49,264 (+$41,611 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 125 × $28.50 | 24 Jul | 2d | 12.3% | 91% | 18% | +7pp | $1,625 | $24,375 | -$3,840 | $65,277 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 × $28.50 12.3% OTM over spot $25.38 24 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.24 mid) = $1,625 credit for the 2d cycle → $24,375/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $28.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $28.74) 93% EV / mo +$14,514 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 74% whole by 9mo vs 67% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $16,581/mo median; plan ~$11,275/mo after 68% keep · $38,536 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.6-2.7], measured ONLY among the 74% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$16,176 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $32 @ 77% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.01/sh now → $1.42 mid-life (likely $1.47–$2.72) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.29/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 245 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $29 (overshoots $0.85). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $28.50 is $5 below CC-SS $33.85: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.13 collected) or spot ≥ $28.74 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $29.44 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.85, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-90,875 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$90,017 − CC assignment net of premium (125 × $28.50): -$65,277 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-66,135 (+$24,740 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $2,267 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-68,402, the opportunity cost of earning $24,375/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.83 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$77,500, position total $-67,969 (+$22,906 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 57 × $27.50 | 24 Jul | 2d | 8.4% | 84% | 19% | +12pp | $1,881 | $28,215 | — | $34,326 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 57 × $27.50 8.4% OTM over spot $25.38 24 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.44 mid) = $1,881 credit for the 2d cycle → $28,215/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27.50) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $27.94) 88% EV / mo +$16,870 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +12pp 76% whole by 9mo vs 64% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $19,244/mo median; plan ~$13,086/mo after 68% keep · $46,820 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.6-2.8], measured ONLY among the 76% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 19% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,824 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $33 @ 83% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 57 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.91/sh now → $1.35 mid-life (likely $1.49–$2.85) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.33/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.02/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 567 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $28 (overshoots $0.89). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27.50 is $6 below CC-SS $33.85: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.33 collected) or spot ≥ $27.94 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $29.44 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.85, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-90,875 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$90,017 − CC assignment net of premium (57 × $27.50): -$34,326 + Conservative CC premium (68 × $35): +$1,700 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-33,485 (+$57,390 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $2,267 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-35,751, the opportunity cost of earning $28,215/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.83 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$39,900, position total $-28,669 (+$62,206 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 114 × $27.50 | 24 Jul | 2d | 8.4% | 84% | 34% | +15pp | $3,762 | $56,430 | +$28,215 | $68,653 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 114 × $27.50 8.4% OTM over spot $25.38 24 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.44 mid) = $3,762 credit for the 2d cycle → $56,430/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27.50) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $27.94) 88% EV / mo +$33,739 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +15pp 83% whole by 9mo vs 68% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $32,812/mo median; plan ~$22,312/mo after 68% keep · $55,604 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.0 mo [0.5-2.4], measured ONLY among the 83% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 20% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$11,648 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $33 @ 83% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 114 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.91/sh now → $1.35 mid-life (likely $1.51–$2.87) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.33/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.02/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 611 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $28 (overshoots $0.93). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27.50 is $6 below CC-SS $33.85: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.33 collected) or spot ≥ $27.94 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $29.44 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.85, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-90,875 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$90,017 − CC assignment net of premium (114 × $27.50): -$68,653 + Conservative CC premium (11 × $35): +$275 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-69,236 (+$21,639 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $2,267 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-71,503, the opportunity cost of earning $56,430/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.83 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$79,800, position total $-69,994 (+$20,881 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 125 × $34 | 31 Jul | 9d | 34.0% | 96% | 9% | -2pp | $1,375 | $4,583 | -$23,737 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 × $34 34.0% OTM over spot $25.38 31 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.32 mid) = $1,375 credit for the 9d cycle → $4,583/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $34) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $34.32) 96% EV / mo +$2,583 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -2pp 66% whole by 9mo vs 67% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,438/mo median; plan ~$2,338/mo after 68% keep · $10,396 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.6-2.8], measured ONLY among the 66% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$27,854 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $37 @ 74% POP 66% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.30/sh now → $2.34 mid-life (likely $1.82–$3.03) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.23/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 206 simulated challenges: the $34 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 9, at $35 (overshoots $1.23). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $34 is at/above CC-SS $33.85: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.11 collected) or spot ≥ $34.32 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $34)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $29.44 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.85, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-90,875 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$90,017 − CC assignment net of premium (125 × $34): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-858 (+$90,017 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $2,267 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,125, the opportunity cost of earning $4,583/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.83 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,000, position total $531 (+$91,406 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 114 × $30 | 31 Jul | 9d | 18.2% | 84% | 33% | +4pp | $5,586 | $18,620 | -$9,700 | $38,329 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 114 × $30 18.2% OTM over spot $25.38 31 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.59 mid) = $5,586 credit for the 9d cycle → $18,620/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $30) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $30.59) 87% EV / mo +$6,631 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 70% whole by 9mo vs 66% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $11,688/mo median; plan ~$7,948/mo after 68% keep · $28,081 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.5-2.3], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$16,551 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $34 @ 77% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 114 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.74/sh now → $1.94 mid-life (likely $1.91–$3.02) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.49/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.45/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 725 simulated challenges: the $30 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $31 (overshoots $1.10). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $30 is $4 below CC-SS $33.85: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.49 collected) or spot ≥ $30.59 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $30)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $29.44 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.85, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-90,875 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$90,017 − CC assignment net of premium (114 × $30): -$38,329 + Conservative CC premium (11 × $35): +$275 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-38,912 (+$51,963 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $2,267 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-41,179, the opportunity cost of earning $18,620/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.83 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$49,476, position total $-39,670 (+$51,205 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 118 × $27.50 | 31 Jul | 9d | 8.4% | 70% | 52% | +5pp | $8,496 | $28,320 | — | $66,459 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 118 × $27.50 8.4% OTM over spot $25.38 31 Jul 2026 (9d, $1.38 mid) = $8,496 credit for the 9d cycle → $28,320/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27.50) 70% Breach risk 30% POP (stays ≤ $28.88) 79% EV / mo $-3,131 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 70% whole by 9mo vs 65% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $14,171/mo median; plan ~$9,636/mo after 68% keep · $27,199 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.5-1.9], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 52% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$11,687 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $31 @ 78% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 118 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.42/sh now → $1.71 mid-life (likely $2.06–$2.94) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.72/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.99/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,548 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 9, at $28 (overshoots $1.00). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27.50 is $6 below CC-SS $33.85: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.18/sh (~25% of the $0.72 collected) or spot ≥ $28.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $29.44 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.85, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-90,875 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$90,017 − CC assignment net of premium (118 × $27.50): -$66,459 + Conservative CC premium (7 × $35): +$175 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-67,143 (+$23,732 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $2,267 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-69,409, the opportunity cost of earning $28,320/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.83 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$77,998, position total $-68,292 (+$22,583 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 116 × $26.50 | 31 Jul | 9d | 4.4% | 63% | 80% | +11pp | $16,936 | $56,453 | +$28,133 | $68,349 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 116 × $26.50 4.4% OTM over spot $25.38 31 Jul 2026 (9d, $1.77 mid) = $16,936 credit for the 9d cycle → $56,453/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26.50) 63% Breach risk 37% POP (stays ≤ $28.27) 75% EV / mo +$13,323 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +11pp 80% whole by 9mo vs 69% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $26,297/mo median; plan ~$17,882/mo after 68% keep · $37,282 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.5-1.9], measured ONLY among the 80% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 64% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,872 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $34 @ 91% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 116 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.29/sh now → $1.62 mid-life (likely $2.17–$3.00) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.46/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.16/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,905 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $28 (overshoots $1.01). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $26.50 is $7 below CC-SS $33.85: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.36/sh (~25% of the $1.46 collected) or spot ≥ $28.27 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $29.44 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.85, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-90,875 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$90,017 − CC assignment net of premium (116 × $26.50): -$68,349 + Conservative CC premium (9 × $35): +$225 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-68,982 (+$21,893 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $2,267 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-71,249, the opportunity cost of earning $56,453/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.83 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$79,692, position total $-69,936 (+$20,939 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 22 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.850 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$90,017 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $2,267
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $27.50 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.33 | 57/125 | $28,215 | $31,402 | 84% | 88% | +$16,870 | -$34,326 | 124.3% | $-33,485 (vs do-nothing $-35,751) |
| $27 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.35 | 54/125 | $28,350 | $31,678 | 78% | 84% | +$11,580 | -$35,112 | 127.1% | $-34,195 (vs do-nothing $-36,462) |
| $26.50 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.46 | 41/125 | $28,290 | $32,228 | 71% | 81% | +$8,851 | -$28,258 | 102.3% | $-27,016 (vs do-nothing $-29,283) |
| $28 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.23 | 122/125 | $28,136 | $28,277 | 71% | 79% | +$4,753 | -$56,390 | 204.1% | $-57,174 (vs do-nothing $-59,440) |
| $27.50 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.72 | 118/125 | $28,320 | $28,648 | 70% | 79% | $-3,131 | -$66,459 | 240.6% | $-67,143 (vs do-nothing $-69,409) |
| $27.50 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.58 | 95/125 | $28,144 | $29,550 | 68% | 77% | +$7,343 | -$45,335 | 164.1% | $-45,444 (vs do-nothing $-47,710) |
| $27 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.29 | 66/125 | $28,380 | $31,146 | 67% | 76% | +$7,543 | -$36,710 | 132.9% | $-36,094 (vs do-nothing $-38,360) |
| $27 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.76 | 86/125 | $28,380 | $30,208 | 65% | 77% | +$6,922 | -$43,793 | 158.5% | $-43,676 (vs do-nothing $-45,943) |
| $27 | 23d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.84 | 118/125 | $28,320 | $28,648 | 64% | 74% | +$3,384 | -$59,143 | 214.1% | $-59,827 (vs do-nothing $-62,093) |
| $26 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.63 | 30/125 | $28,350 | $32,803 | 63% | 77% | +$7,234 | -$21,666 | 78.4% | $-20,150 (vs do-nothing $-22,416) |
| $26.50 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.46 | 58/125 | $28,227 | $31,367 | 63% | 75% | +$6,662 | -$34,174 | 123.7% | $-33,358 (vs do-nothing $-35,624) |
| $26.50 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.96 | 77/125 | $28,298 | $30,548 | 62% | 73% | +$6,467 | -$41,520 | 150.3% | $-41,178 (vs do-nothing $-43,445) |
| $26 | 23d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.24 | 97/125 | $28,341 | $29,653 | 59% | 72% | +$3,102 | -$54,438 | 197.1% | $-54,596 (vs do-nothing $-56,863) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $26 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.69 | 50/125 | $28,167 | $31,682 | 59% | 72% | +$6,399 | -$30,811 | 111.5% | $-29,794 (vs do-nothing $-32,061) |
| $26 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.17 | 70/125 | $28,481 | $31,059 | 59% | 74% | +$6,000 | -$39,775 | 144.0% | $-39,258 (vs do-nothing $-41,525) |
| $25.50 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.40 | 63/125 | $28,350 | $31,256 | 55% | 70% | +$5,507 | -$37,499 | 135.7% | $-36,807 (vs do-nothing $-39,074) |
| $25.50 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.91 | 45/125 | $28,650 | $32,400 | 55% | 70% | +$5,844 | -$28,990 | 104.9% | $-27,848 (vs do-nothing $-30,115) |
| $25.50 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.86 | 22/125 | $28,380 | $33,208 | 54% | 74% | +$6,128 | -$16,483 | 59.7% | $-14,766 (vs do-nothing $-17,033) |
| $25 | 23d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.71 | 80/125 | $28,278 | $30,388 | 53% | 69% | +$2,810 | -$49,137 | 177.9% | $-48,871 (vs do-nothing $-51,137) |
| $25 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.57 | 59/125 | $28,431 | $31,524 | 52% | 71% | +$4,364 | -$37,065 | 134.2% | $-36,273 (vs do-nothing $-38,540) |
| $25 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.16 | 40/125 | $28,800 | $32,784 | 50% | 70% | +$5,339 | -$26,769 | 96.9% | $-25,502 (vs do-nothing $-27,769) |
| $25 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.13 | 17/125 | $28,815 | $33,878 | 45% | 68% | +$4,962 | -$13,128 | 47.5% | $-11,286 (vs do-nothing $-13,553) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 125 contracts at the conservative CC.