125 contracts (12,500 sh) | BE SS: $39.71 | CC-SS: $33.61 (banked floor $33.53) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $277,625 | (ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 12500 |
| Normal income ref | $57,422/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $4,106/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-90,875 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 125 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 2d | 59 × $27.50 | 87% | $29,205 | $15,115 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 31 Jul 2026 · 9d | 120 × $27.50 | 73% | $28,800 | $-12,373 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 33% normal | 98 × $28.50 | 24 Jul | 2d | 13.5% | 94% | 11% | +4pp | $1,274 | $19,110 | -$10,095 | $48,779 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 98 × $28.50 13.5% OTM over spot $25.12 24 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.24 mid) = $1,274 credit for the 2d cycle → $19,110/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $28.50) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $28.74) 95% EV / mo +$15,406 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 72% whole by 9mo vs 67% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $13,825/mo median; plan ~$9,401/mo after 68% keep · $36,453 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.6-2.9], measured ONLY among the 72% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$10,392 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $34 @ 83% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 98 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.68/sh now → $1.19 mid-life (likely $1.19–$2.21) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.06/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 177 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $29 (overshoots $0.79). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $28.50 is $5 below CC-SS $33.61: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.13 collected) or spot ≥ $28.74 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $29.43 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.61, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-90,875 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$90,179 − CC assignment net of premium (98 × $28.50): -$48,779 + Conservative CC premium (27 × $35): +$675 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-48,800 (+$42,075 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $2,429 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-51,229, the opportunity cost of earning $19,110/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.83 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$60,760, position total $-47,791 (+$43,084 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 125 × $28.50 | 24 Jul | 2d | 13.5% | 94% | 11% | +8pp | $1,625 | $24,375 | -$4,830 | $62,218 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 × $28.50 13.5% OTM over spot $25.12 24 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.24 mid) = $1,625 credit for the 2d cycle → $24,375/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $28.50) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $28.74) 95% EV / mo +$19,650 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 73% whole by 9mo vs 65% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $16,068/mo median; plan ~$10,926/mo after 68% keep · $42,799 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.7-3.0], measured ONLY among the 73% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 5% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$13,255 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $34 @ 83% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.68/sh now → $1.19 mid-life (likely $1.22–$2.23) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.06/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 161 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $29 (overshoots $0.83). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $28.50 is $5 below CC-SS $33.61: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.13 collected) or spot ≥ $28.74 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $29.43 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.61, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-90,875 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$90,179 − CC assignment net of premium (125 × $28.50): -$62,218 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-62,914 (+$27,961 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $2,429 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-65,343, the opportunity cost of earning $24,375/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.83 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$77,500, position total $-65,206 (+$25,669 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 59 × $27.50 | 24 Jul | 2d | 9.5% | 87% | 14% | +8pp | $1,947 | $29,205 | — | $34,087 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 59 × $27.50 9.5% OTM over spot $25.12 24 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.44 mid) = $1,947 credit for the 2d cycle → $29,205/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27.50) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $27.94) 91% EV / mo +$21,937 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 78% whole by 9mo vs 70% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $19,580/mo median; plan ~$13,314/mo after 68% keep · $44,282 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.6-2.8], measured ONLY among the 78% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,715 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $33 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 59 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.60/sh now → $1.13 mid-life (likely $1.25–$2.24) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.33/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.80/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 423 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $28 (overshoots $0.84). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27.50 is $6 below CC-SS $33.61: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.33 collected) or spot ≥ $27.94 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $29.43 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.61, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-90,875 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$90,179 − CC assignment net of premium (59 × $27.50): -$34,087 + Conservative CC premium (66 × $35): +$1,650 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-33,133 (+$57,742 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $2,429 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-35,562, the opportunity cost of earning $29,205/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.83 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$41,300, position total $-27,356 (+$63,519 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 117 × $27.50 | 24 Jul | 2d | 9.5% | 87% | 26% | +16pp | $3,861 | $57,915 | +$28,710 | $67,596 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 117 × $27.50 9.5% OTM over spot $25.12 24 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.44 mid) = $3,861 credit for the 2d cycle → $57,915/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27.50) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $27.94) 91% EV / mo +$43,503 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +16pp 86% whole by 9mo vs 70% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $33,218/mo median; plan ~$22,588/mo after 68% keep · $50,413 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.0 mo [0.6-2.1], measured ONLY among the 86% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$9,350 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $33 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 117 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.60/sh now → $1.13 mid-life (likely $1.23–$2.29) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.33/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.80/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 429 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $28 (overshoots $0.84). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27.50 is $6 below CC-SS $33.61: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.33 collected) or spot ≥ $27.94 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $29.43 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.61, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-90,875 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$90,179 − CC assignment net of premium (117 × $27.50): -$67,596 + Conservative CC premium (8 × $35): +$200 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-68,092 (+$22,783 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $2,429 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-70,521, the opportunity cost of earning $57,915/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.83 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$81,900, position total $-69,406 (+$21,469 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 125 × $31 | 31 Jul | 9d | 23.4% | 90% | 20% | +5pp | $5,375 | $17,917 | -$10,883 | $27,218 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 × $31 23.4% OTM over spot $25.12 31 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.50 mid) = $5,375 credit for the 9d cycle → $17,917/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $31) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $31.50) 92% EV / mo +$12,047 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 70% whole by 9mo vs 65% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $12,085/mo median; plan ~$8,218/mo after 68% keep · $33,296 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.5-2.8], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$27,942 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $33 @ 74% POP 64% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.77/sh now → $2.67 mid-life (likely $2.23–$3.83) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.43/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.24/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 445 simulated challenges: the $31 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $32 (overshoots $1.07). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $31 is $3 below CC-SS $33.61: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.43 collected) or spot ≥ $31.50 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $31)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $29.43 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.61, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-90,875 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$90,179 − CC assignment net of premium (125 × $31): -$27,218 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-27,914 (+$62,961 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $2,429 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-30,343, the opportunity cost of earning $17,917/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.83 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$42,500, position total $-30,206 (+$60,669 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 117 × $30 | 31 Jul | 9d | 19.4% | 87% | 28% | +3pp | $5,733 | $19,110 | -$9,690 | $36,474 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 117 × $30 19.4% OTM over spot $25.12 31 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.59 mid) = $5,733 credit for the 9d cycle → $19,110/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $30) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $30.59) 89% EV / mo +$10,402 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 69% whole by 9mo vs 66% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $12,164/mo median; plan ~$8,272/mo after 68% keep · $33,127 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.6-2.5], measured ONLY among the 69% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 21% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$23,954 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $32 @ 74% POP 64% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 117 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.59/sh now → $2.54 mid-life (likely $2.32–$3.79) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.49/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.05/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 623 simulated challenges: the $30 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $31 (overshoots $0.99). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $30 is $4 below CC-SS $33.61: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.49 collected) or spot ≥ $30.59 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $30)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $29.43 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.61, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-90,875 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$90,179 − CC assignment net of premium (117 × $30): -$36,474 + Conservative CC premium (8 × $35): +$200 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-36,970 (+$53,905 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $2,429 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-39,399, the opportunity cost of earning $19,110/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.83 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$50,778, position total $-38,284 (+$52,591 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 120 × $27.50 | 31 Jul | 9d | 9.5% | 73% | 46% | +5pp | $8,640 | $28,800 | — | $64,649 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 120 × $27.50 9.5% OTM over spot $25.12 31 Jul 2026 (9d, $1.38 mid) = $8,640 credit for the 9d cycle → $28,800/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27.50) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $28.88) 81% EV / mo +$3,377 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 70% whole by 9mo vs 65% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $13,305/mo median; plan ~$9,047/mo after 68% keep · $35,630 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.5-2.6], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 46% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$18,115 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $30 @ 77% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 120 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.15/sh now → $2.23 mid-life (likely $2.56–$3.77) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.72/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,385 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 9, at $28 (overshoots $0.95). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27.50 is $6 below CC-SS $33.61: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.18/sh (~25% of the $0.72 collected) or spot ≥ $28.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $29.43 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.61, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-90,875 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$90,179 − CC assignment net of premium (120 × $27.50): -$64,649 + Conservative CC premium (5 × $35): +$125 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-65,220 (+$25,655 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $2,429 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-67,649, the opportunity cost of earning $28,800/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.83 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$79,320, position total $-66,901 (+$23,974 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 118 × $26.50 | 31 Jul | 9d | 5.5% | 65% | 74% | +14pp | $17,228 | $57,427 | +$28,627 | $66,640 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 118 × $26.50 5.5% OTM over spot $25.12 31 Jul 2026 (9d, $1.77 mid) = $17,228 credit for the 9d cycle → $57,427/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26.50) 65% Breach risk 35% POP (stays ≤ $28.27) 78% EV / mo +$21,138 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +14pp 82% whole by 9mo vs 68% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $28,503/mo median; plan ~$19,382/mo after 68% keep · $49,100 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.0 mo [0.5-2.4], measured ONLY among the 82% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 58% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$7,686 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $32 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 118 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.98/sh now → $2.11 mid-life (likely $2.71–$3.77) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.46/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.65/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,744 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $27 (overshoots $0.93). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $26.50 is $7 below CC-SS $33.61: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.36/sh (~25% of the $1.46 collected) or spot ≥ $28.27 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $29.43 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.61, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-90,875 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$90,179 − CC assignment net of premium (118 × $26.50): -$66,640 + Conservative CC premium (7 × $35): +$175 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-67,161 (+$23,714 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $2,429 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-69,590, the opportunity cost of earning $57,427/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.83 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$81,066, position total $-68,597 (+$22,278 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 22 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.850 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$90,179 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $2,429
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $27.50 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.33 | 59/125 | $29,205 | $32,299 | 87% | 91% | +$21,937 | -$34,087 | 123.4% | $-33,133 (vs do-nothing $-35,562) |
| $27 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.35 | 55/125 | $28,875 | $32,156 | 82% | 88% | +$17,387 | -$34,416 | 124.6% | $-33,362 (vs do-nothing $-35,791) |
| $26.50 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.46 | 42/125 | $28,980 | $32,871 | 76% | 85% | +$14,722 | -$27,919 | 101.1% | $-26,540 (vs do-nothing $-28,969) |
| $27.50 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.72 | 120/125 | $28,800 | $29,034 | 73% | 81% | +$3,377 | -$64,649 | 234.0% | $-65,220 (vs do-nothing $-67,649) |
| $28 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.23 | 125/125 | $28,828 | $28,828 | 72% | 80% | +$6,899 | -$54,718 | 198.1% | $-55,414 (vs do-nothing $-57,843) |
| $27.50 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.58 | 97/125 | $28,736 | $30,049 | 69% | 78% | +$9,234 | -$43,916 | 159.0% | $-43,912 (vs do-nothing $-46,341) |
| $27 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.29 | 67/125 | $28,810 | $31,529 | 69% | 79% | +$11,650 | -$35,627 | 129.0% | $-34,873 (vs do-nothing $-37,302) |
| $26 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.63 | 31/125 | $29,295 | $33,701 | 68% | 82% | +$12,900 | -$21,630 | 78.3% | $-19,976 (vs do-nothing $-22,405) |
| $27 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.76 | 88/125 | $29,040 | $30,774 | 67% | 78% | +$8,813 | -$42,657 | 154.4% | $-42,428 (vs do-nothing $-44,857) |
| $27 | 23d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.84 | 120/125 | $28,800 | $29,034 | 66% | 75% | +$5,176 | -$57,209 | 207.1% | $-57,780 (vs do-nothing $-60,209) |
| $26.50 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.46 | 59/125 | $28,713 | $31,807 | 65% | 78% | +$10,569 | -$33,320 | 120.6% | $-32,366 (vs do-nothing $-34,795) |
| $26.50 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.96 | 79/125 | $29,032 | $31,189 | 64% | 75% | +$8,333 | -$40,665 | 147.2% | $-40,211 (vs do-nothing $-42,640) |
| $26 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.69 | 51/125 | $28,730 | $32,199 | 61% | 75% | +$10,030 | -$30,179 | 109.2% | $-29,025 (vs do-nothing $-31,454) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $26 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.17 | 71/125 | $28,888 | $31,419 | 60% | 76% | +$7,746 | -$38,606 | 139.7% | $-37,952 (vs do-nothing $-40,381) |
| $26 | 23d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.24 | 99/125 | $28,925 | $30,144 | 60% | 73% | +$4,820 | -$53,138 | 192.4% | $-53,184 (vs do-nothing $-55,613) |
| $25.50 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.86 | 23/125 | $29,670 | $34,451 | 59% | 79% | +$11,500 | -$16,669 | 60.3% | $-14,815 (vs do-nothing $-17,244) |
| $25.50 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.40 | 64/125 | $28,800 | $31,659 | 57% | 72% | +$7,214 | -$36,528 | 132.2% | $-35,699 (vs do-nothing $-38,128) |
| $25.50 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.91 | 46/125 | $29,287 | $32,990 | 57% | 73% | +$9,318 | -$28,508 | 103.2% | $-27,229 (vs do-nothing $-29,658) |
| $25 | 23d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.71 | 82/125 | $28,985 | $31,001 | 55% | 70% | +$4,443 | -$48,359 | 175.1% | $-47,980 (vs do-nothing $-50,409) |
| $25 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.57 | 60/125 | $28,912 | $31,959 | 54% | 73% | +$6,073 | -$36,225 | 131.1% | $-35,296 (vs do-nothing $-37,725) |
| $25 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.16 | 40/125 | $28,800 | $32,784 | 52% | 73% | +$8,391 | -$25,790 | 93.4% | $-24,361 (vs do-nothing $-26,790) |
| $25 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.13 | 17/125 | $28,815 | $33,878 | 49% | 73% | +$9,561 | -$12,712 | 46.0% | $-10,708 (vs do-nothing $-13,137) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 125 contracts at the conservative CC.