125 contracts (12,500 sh) | BE SS: $39.71 | CC-SS: $33.33 (banked floor $33.25) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $277,625 | (ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 12500 |
| Normal income ref | $52,969/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $4,140/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-87,312 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 125 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 2d | 104 × $27.50 | 85% | $26,520 | $3,097 |
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 31 Jul 2026 · 9d | 123 × $28 | 76% | $26,650 | $4,789 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 33% normal | 117 × $28.50 | 24 Jul | 2d | 13.5% | 92% | 17% | +5pp | $1,170 | $17,550 | -$8,970 | $55,392 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 117 × $28.50 13.5% OTM over spot $25.11 24 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.12 mid) = $1,170 credit for the 2d cycle → $17,550/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $28.50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $28.62) 92% EV / mo +$8,394 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 72% whole by 9mo vs 66% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $11,564/mo median; plan ~$7,863/mo after 68% keep · $26,845 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.4-2.5], measured ONLY among the 72% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$8,649 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $36 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 117 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.19/sh now → $0.84 mid-life (likely $0.87–$1.62) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.74/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 234 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $29 (overshoots $0.96). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $28.50 is $5 below CC-SS $33.33: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $28.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $29.02 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.33, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-87,312 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$87,075 − CC assignment net of premium (117 × $28.50): -$55,392 + Conservative CC premium (8 × $37): +$88 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-55,541 (+$31,771 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $1,138 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-56,679, the opportunity cost of earning $17,550/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.85 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$73,125, position total $-57,227 (+$30,085 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 125 × $28.50 | 24 Jul | 2d | 13.5% | 92% | 17% | +6pp | $1,250 | $18,750 | -$7,770 | $59,179 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 × $28.50 13.5% OTM over spot $25.11 24 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.12 mid) = $1,250 credit for the 2d cycle → $18,750/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $28.50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $28.62) 92% EV / mo +$8,968 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 73% whole by 9mo vs 66% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $13,111/mo median; plan ~$8,915/mo after 68% keep · $25,715 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.0 mo [0.4-2.3], measured ONLY among the 73% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$9,241 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $36 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.19/sh now → $0.84 mid-life (likely $0.86–$1.56) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.74/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 218 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $29 (overshoots $0.88). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $28.50 is $5 below CC-SS $33.33: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $28.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $29.02 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.33, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-87,312 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$87,075 − CC assignment net of premium (125 × $28.50): -$59,179 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-59,417 (+$27,896 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $1,138 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-60,554, the opportunity cost of earning $18,750/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.85 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$78,125, position total $-62,315 (+$24,997 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 104 × $27.50 | 24 Jul | 2d | 9.5% | 85% | 19% | +7pp | $1,768 | $26,520 | — | $58,909 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 104 × $27.50 9.5% OTM over spot $25.11 24 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.22 mid) = $1,768 credit for the 2d cycle → $26,520/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27.50) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $27.72) 87% EV / mo +$7,435 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 70% whole by 9mo vs 64% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $14,948/mo median; plan ~$10,165/mo after 68% keep · $31,300 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.0 mo [0.5-2.0], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 19% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,523 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $34 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 104 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.13/sh now → $0.80 mid-life (likely $0.85–$1.64) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.63/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 565 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $28 (overshoots $0.91). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27.50 is $6 below CC-SS $33.33: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $27.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $29.02 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.33, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-87,312 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$87,075 − CC assignment net of premium (104 × $27.50): -$58,909 + Conservative CC premium (21 × $37): +$231 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-58,915 (+$28,397 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $1,138 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-60,053, the opportunity cost of earning $26,520/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.85 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$74,672, position total $-58,631 (+$28,681 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 96 × $26.50 | 24 Jul | 2d | 5.5% | 74% | 53% | +14pp | $3,552 | $53,280 | +$26,760 | $62,058 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 96 × $26.50 5.5% OTM over spot $25.11 24 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.42 mid) = $3,552 credit for the 2d cycle → $53,280/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26.50) 74% Breach risk 26% POP (stays ≤ $26.93) 79% EV / mo +$12,986 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +14pp 75% whole by 9mo vs 62% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~6.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $23,740/mo median; plan ~$16,143/mo after 68% keep · $48,099 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.0 mo [0.5-2.3], measured ONLY among the 75% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,707 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $34 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 96 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.07/sh now → $0.76 mid-life (likely $0.89–$1.79) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.37/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.39/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 956 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 2, at $28 (overshoots $1.03). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $26.50 is $7 below CC-SS $33.33: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.37 collected) or spot ≥ $26.93 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $29.02 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.33, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-87,312 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$87,075 − CC assignment net of premium (96 × $26.50): -$62,058 + Conservative CC premium (29 × $37): +$319 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-61,976 (+$25,337 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $1,138 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-63,114, the opportunity cost of earning $53,280/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.85 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$76,608, position total $-60,479 (+$26,833 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 125 × $31 | 31 Jul | 9d | 23.5% | 90% | 20% | +2pp | $2,375 | $7,917 | -$18,733 | $26,804 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 × $31 23.5% OTM over spot $25.11 31 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.34 mid) = $2,375 credit for the 9d cycle → $7,917/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $31) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $31.34) 91% EV / mo +$1,969 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 66% whole by 9mo vs 64% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $5,089/mo median; plan ~$3,461/mo after 68% keep · $15,774 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.5-2.7], measured ONLY among the 66% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$18,469 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $36 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.36/sh now → $1.67 mid-life (likely $1.40–$2.42) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.19/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 391 simulated challenges: the $31 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $32 (overshoots $0.98). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $31 is $2 below CC-SS $33.33: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.19 collected) or spot ≥ $31.34 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $31)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $29.02 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.33, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-87,312 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$87,075 − CC assignment net of premium (125 × $31): -$26,804 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-27,042 (+$60,271 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $1,138 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-28,179, the opportunity cost of earning $7,917/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.85 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$45,750, position total $-29,940 (+$57,372 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 101 × $28.50 | 31 Jul | 9d | 13.5% | 80% | 42% | +5pp | $5,252 | $17,507 | -$9,143 | $43,575 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 101 × $28.50 13.5% OTM over spot $25.11 31 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.57 mid) = $5,252 credit for the 9d cycle → $17,507/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $28.50) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $29.07) 83% EV / mo +$4,222 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 70% whole by 9mo vs 64% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $10,342/mo median; plan ~$7,033/mo after 68% keep · $31,389 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.6-3.0], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$9,564 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $34 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 101 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.07/sh now → $1.47 mid-life (likely $1.46–$2.30) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.52/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.95/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 973 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $29 (overshoots $0.91). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $28.50 is $5 below CC-SS $33.33: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.13/sh (~25% of the $0.52 collected) or spot ≥ $29.07 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $29.02 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.33, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-87,312 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$87,075 − CC assignment net of premium (101 × $28.50): -$43,575 + Conservative CC premium (24 × $37): +$264 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-43,548 (+$43,764 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $1,138 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-44,686, the opportunity cost of earning $17,507/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.85 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$58,883, position total $-42,809 (+$44,503 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 123 × $28 | 31 Jul | 9d | 11.5% | 76% | 37% | +9pp | $7,995 | $26,650 | — | $57,617 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 123 × $28 11.5% OTM over spot $25.11 31 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.73 mid) = $7,995 credit for the 9d cycle → $26,650/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $28) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $28.73) 81% EV / mo +$5,843 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 71% whole by 9mo vs 62% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $13,681/mo median; plan ~$9,303/mo after 68% keep · $37,208 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.5-2.7], measured ONLY among the 71% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 37% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$9,572 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $34 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 123 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.02/sh now → $1.43 mid-life (likely $1.54–$2.32) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.78/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,120 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $29 (overshoots $0.89). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $28 is $5 below CC-SS $33.33: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.16/sh (~25% of the $0.65 collected) or spot ≥ $28.73 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $29.02 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.33, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-87,312 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$87,075 − CC assignment net of premium (123 × $28): -$57,617 + Conservative CC premium (2 × $37): +$22 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-57,833 (+$29,480 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $1,138 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-58,970, the opportunity cost of earning $26,650/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.85 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$76,260, position total $-60,428 (+$26,884 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 115 × $25.50 | 31 Jul | 9d | 1.6% | 57% | 92% | +9pp | $15,985 | $53,283 | +$26,633 | $74,110 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 115 × $25.50 1.6% OTM over spot $25.11 31 Jul 2026 (9d, $1.46 mid) = $15,985 credit for the 9d cycle → $53,283/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25.50) 57% Breach risk 43% POP (stays ≤ $26.96) 70% EV / mo +$6,804 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 73% whole by 9mo vs 65% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $21,019/mo median; plan ~$14,293/mo after 68% keep · $43,888 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.0 mo [0.5-2.3], measured ONLY among the 73% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 73% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$1,707 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $33 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 115 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.75/sh now → $1.24 mid-life (likely $1.72–$2.42) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.15/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,198 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 9, at $26 (overshoots $0.94). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $25.50 is $8 below CC-SS $33.33: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.35/sh (~25% of the $1.39 collected) or spot ≥ $26.96 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $29.02 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.33, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-87,312 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$87,075 − CC assignment net of premium (115 × $25.50): -$74,110 + Conservative CC premium (10 × $37): +$110 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-74,237 (+$13,075 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $1,138 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-75,375, the opportunity cost of earning $53,283/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.85 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$91,540, position total $-75,620 (+$11,692 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 23 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.847 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$87,075 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $1,138
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $27.50 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.17 | 104/125 | $26,520 | $26,953 | 85% | 87% | +$7,435 | -$58,909 | 213.2% | $-58,915 (vs do-nothing $-60,053) |
| $27 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.24 | 74/125 | $26,640 | $27,692 | 80% | 83% | +$5,960 | -$45,098 | 163.3% | $-44,774 (vs do-nothing $-45,912) |
| $28 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.65 | 123/125 | $26,650 | $26,691 | 76% | 81% | +$5,843 | -$57,617 | 208.6% | $-57,833 (vs do-nothing $-58,970) |
| $26.50 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.37 | 48/125 | $26,640 | $28,228 | 74% | 79% | +$6,493 | -$31,029 | 112.3% | $-30,419 (vs do-nothing $-31,557) |
| $27.50 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.73 | 109/125 | $26,523 | $26,853 | 74% | 79% | +$5,345 | -$55,637 | 201.4% | $-55,699 (vs do-nothing $-56,836) |
| $28 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.29 | 110/125 | $26,606 | $26,916 | 73% | 79% | +$8,523 | -$44,488 | 161.0% | $-44,560 (vs do-nothing $-45,698) |
| $27 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.89 | 90/125 | $26,700 | $27,422 | 70% | 77% | +$5,556 | -$48,999 | 177.4% | $-48,851 (vs do-nothing $-49,989) |
| $27.50 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.38 | 103/125 | $26,651 | $27,105 | 69% | 77% | +$5,296 | -$45,880 | 166.1% | $-45,875 (vs do-nothing $-47,013) |
| $26 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.50 | 36/125 | $27,000 | $28,836 | 67% | 75% | +$4,769 | -$24,604 | 89.1% | $-23,862 (vs do-nothing $-25,000) |
| $27 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.55 | 92/125 | $26,738 | $27,418 | 67% | 75% | +$4,986 | -$44,016 | 159.3% | $-43,890 (vs do-nothing $-45,028) |
| $26.50 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.02 | 78/125 | $26,520 | $27,489 | 66% | 74% | +$4,455 | -$45,352 | 164.2% | $-45,072 (vs do-nothing $-46,210) |
| $27 | 23d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.85 | 110/125 | $26,543 | $26,853 | 66% | 75% | +$4,569 | -$49,328 | 178.6% | $-49,400 (vs do-nothing $-50,538) |
| $26.50 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.75 | 81/125 | $26,578 | $27,486 | 64% | 78% | +$6,430 | -$41,183 | 149.1% | $-40,936 (vs do-nothing $-42,074) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $26 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.15 | 70/125 | $26,833 | $27,968 | 62% | 73% | +$3,101 | -$43,290 | 156.7% | $-42,923 (vs do-nothing $-44,060) |
| $26 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.90 | 75/125 | $26,719 | $27,750 | 61% | 73% | +$5,454 | -$40,758 | 147.5% | $-40,445 (vs do-nothing $-41,583) |
| $26 | 23d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.23 | 92/125 | $26,760 | $27,441 | 60% | 72% | +$4,087 | -$46,960 | 170.0% | $-46,834 (vs do-nothing $-47,972) |
| $25.50 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.68 | 26/125 | $26,520 | $28,562 | 59% | 71% | +$3,510 | -$18,601 | 67.3% | $-17,750 (vs do-nothing $-18,887) |
| $25.50 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.15 | 66/125 | $26,606 | $27,823 | 57% | 72% | +$5,356 | -$37,517 | 135.8% | $-37,105 (vs do-nothing $-38,243) |
| $25.50 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.39 | 58/125 | $26,873 | $28,255 | 57% | 70% | +$3,432 | -$37,377 | 135.3% | $-36,877 (vs do-nothing $-38,015) |
| $25 | 23d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.51 | 81/125 | $26,519 | $27,426 | 55% | 69% | +$2,058 | -$47,177 | 170.8% | $-46,930 (vs do-nothing $-48,068) |
| $25 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.37 | 60/125 | $26,663 | $28,003 | 54% | 70% | +$4,809 | -$35,786 | 129.5% | $-35,308 (vs do-nothing $-36,446) |
| $25 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.61 | 50/125 | $26,833 | $28,380 | 52% | 68% | +$2,886 | -$33,622 | 121.7% | $-33,034 (vs do-nothing $-34,172) |
| $25 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.87 | 21/125 | $27,405 | $29,550 | 50% | 66% | +$1,558 | -$15,675 | 56.7% | $-14,768 (vs do-nothing $-15,906) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 125 contracts at the conservative CC.