125 contracts (12,500 sh) | BE SS: $39.71 | CC-SS: $33.51 (banked floor $33.43) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $277,625 | (ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 12500 |
| Normal income ref | $57,250/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $3,908/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-89,500 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 125 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 31 Jul 2026 · 8d | 111 × $27.50 | 75% | $28,721 | $6,786 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 125 × $30.50 | 31 Jul | 8d | 21.6% | 90% | 20% | +3pp | $2,500 | $9,375 | -$19,346 | $35,067 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 × $30.50 21.6% OTM over spot $25.08 31 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.28 mid) = $2,500 credit for the 8d cycle → $9,375/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $30.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $30.77) 91% EV / mo +$3,565 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 64% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $6,012/mo median; plan ~$4,088/mo after 68% keep · $22,334 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.7-2.6], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$17,445 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $35 @ 81% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.26/sh now → $1.60 mid-life (likely $1.41–$2.20) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.40/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 387 simulated challenges: the $30 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $31 (overshoots $0.92). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $30.50 is $3 below CC-SS $33.51: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $30.77 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $30)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $29.02 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.51, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-89,500 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$89,204 − CC assignment net of premium (125 × $30.50): -$35,067 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-35,364 (+$54,136 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $1,079 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-36,442, the opportunity cost of earning $9,375/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.85 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$51,875, position total $-37,935 (+$51,565 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 123 × $29 | 31 Jul | 8d | 15.6% | 84% | 33% | +9pp | $5,043 | $18,911 | -$9,810 | $50,373 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 123 × $29 15.6% OTM over spot $25.08 31 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.52 mid) = $5,043 credit for the 8d cycle → $18,911/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $29) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $29.52) 87% EV / mo +$7,395 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 70% whole by 9mo vs 61% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $10,903/mo median; plan ~$7,414/mo after 68% keep · $31,412 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.6-2.8], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$13,126 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $35 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 123 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.09/sh now → $1.48 mid-life (likely $1.41–$2.27) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.41/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.07/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 726 simulated challenges: the $29 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $30 (overshoots $0.90). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $29 is $5 below CC-SS $33.51: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.41 collected) or spot ≥ $29.52 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $29)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $29.02 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.51, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-89,500 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$89,204 − CC assignment net of premium (123 × $29): -$50,373 + Conservative CC premium (2 × $37): +$22 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-50,647 (+$38,853 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $1,079 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-51,726, the opportunity cost of earning $18,911/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.85 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$66,912, position total $-52,950 (+$36,550 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 111 × $27.50 | 31 Jul | 8d | 9.6% | 75% | 39% | +9pp | $7,659 | $28,721 | — | $59,001 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 111 × $27.50 9.6% OTM over spot $25.08 31 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.74 mid) = $7,659 credit for the 8d cycle → $28,721/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27.50) 75% Breach risk 25% POP (stays ≤ $28.25) 80% EV / mo +$8,406 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 68% whole by 9mo vs 58% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $14,000/mo median; plan ~$9,520/mo after 68% keep · $41,976 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.6-2.7], measured ONLY among the 68% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 39% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$7,469 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $34 @ 86% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 111 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.93/sh now → $1.36 mid-life (likely $1.49–$2.30) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.69/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.67/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,160 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $28 (overshoots $0.88). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27.50 is $6 below CC-SS $33.51: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.69 collected) or spot ≥ $28.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $29.02 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.51, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-89,500 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$89,204 − CC assignment net of premium (111 × $27.50): -$59,001 + Conservative CC premium (14 × $37): +$154 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-59,143 (+$30,357 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $1,079 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-60,222, the opportunity cost of earning $28,721/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.85 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$73,926, position total $-59,832 (+$29,668 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 112 × $25.50 | 31 Jul | 8d | 1.7% | 57% | 91% | +14pp | $15,344 | $57,540 | +$28,819 | $74,316 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 112 × $25.50 1.7% OTM over spot $25.08 31 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.43 mid) = $15,344 credit for the 8d cycle → $57,540/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25.50) 57% Breach risk 43% POP (stays ≤ $26.93) 71% EV / mo +$11,177 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +14pp 76% whole by 9mo vs 62% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $19,763/mo median; plan ~$13,439/mo after 68% keep · $47,429 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.6-3.1], measured ONLY among the 76% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 71% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$1,715 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $31 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 112 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.72/sh now → $1.22 mid-life (likely $1.67–$2.38) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.37/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.15/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,137 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 8, at $26 (overshoots $0.88). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $25.50 is $8 below CC-SS $33.51: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.34/sh (~25% of the $1.37 collected) or spot ≥ $26.93 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $29.02 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.51, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-89,500 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$89,204 − CC assignment net of premium (112 × $25.50): -$74,316 + Conservative CC premium (13 × $37): +$143 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-74,470 (+$15,030 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $1,079 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-75,548, the opportunity cost of earning $57,540/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.85 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$89,376, position total $-75,293 (+$14,207 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 16 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.847 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$89,204 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $1,079
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $27.50 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.69 | 111/125 | $28,721 | $29,029 | 75% | 80% | +$8,406 | -$59,001 | 213.6% | $-59,143 (vs do-nothing $-60,222) |
| $28 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.26 | 114/125 | $28,728 | $28,970 | 72% | 78% | +$6,604 | -$48,397 | 175.2% | $-48,573 (vs do-nothing $-49,651) |
| $27 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.84 | 91/125 | $28,665 | $29,413 | 71% | 78% | +$8,041 | -$51,555 | 186.6% | $-51,477 (vs do-nothing $-52,556) |
| $27.50 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.32 | 109/125 | $28,776 | $29,128 | 70% | 77% | +$5,720 | -$51,071 | 184.9% | $-51,191 (vs do-nothing $-52,270) |
| $26.50 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.99 | 78/125 | $28,958 | $29,992 | 67% | 76% | +$7,197 | -$46,920 | 169.8% | $-46,699 (vs do-nothing $-47,778) |
| $27 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.56 | 92/125 | $28,704 | $29,430 | 67% | 76% | +$6,440 | -$45,498 | 164.7% | $-45,431 (vs do-nothing $-46,510) |
| $27 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.77 | 119/125 | $28,722 | $28,854 | 66% | 75% | +$4,952 | -$56,351 | 204.0% | $-56,581 (vs do-nothing $-57,660) |
| $26.50 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.73 | 83/125 | $28,718 | $29,642 | 64% | 75% | +$5,811 | -$43,786 | 158.5% | $-43,620 (vs do-nothing $-44,699) |
| $26 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.17 | 66/125 | $28,957 | $30,255 | 62% | 73% | +$6,445 | -$41,814 | 151.4% | $-41,461 (vs do-nothing $-42,540) |
| $26 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.92 | 75/125 | $28,800 | $29,900 | 61% | 73% | +$5,274 | -$41,890 | 151.6% | $-41,637 (vs do-nothing $-42,715) |
| $26 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.15 | 98/125 | $28,732 | $29,326 | 61% | 73% | +$4,453 | -$52,483 | 190.0% | $-52,482 (vs do-nothing $-53,561) |
| $25.50 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.14 | 67/125 | $28,676 | $29,952 | 57% | 71% | +$4,875 | -$39,298 | 142.3% | $-38,956 (vs do-nothing $-40,035) |
| $25.50 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.37 | 56/125 | $28,770 | $30,288 | 57% | 71% | +$5,589 | -$37,158 | 134.5% | $-36,695 (vs do-nothing $-37,774) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $25 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.68 | 79/125 | $28,871 | $29,883 | 55% | 70% | +$4,704 | -$46,021 | 166.6% | $-45,811 (vs do-nothing $-46,890) |
| $25 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.37 | 61/125 | $28,914 | $30,322 | 54% | 69% | +$4,466 | -$37,426 | 135.5% | $-37,018 (vs do-nothing $-38,097) |
| $25 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.60 | 48/125 | $28,800 | $30,494 | 52% | 68% | +$4,880 | -$33,146 | 120.0% | $-32,595 (vs do-nothing $-33,674) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 125 contracts at the conservative CC.