125 contracts (12,500 sh) | BE SS: $39.71 | CC-SS: $32.38 (banked floor $32.30) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $277,625 | (ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 12500 |
| Normal income ref | $40,250/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $4,593/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-83,250 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 125 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 31 Jul 2026 · 8d | 112 × $26.50 | 73% | $20,160 | $-6,219 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 125 × $30 | 31 Jul | 8d | 22.5% | 92% | 16% | +3pp | $1,875 | $7,031 | -$13,129 | $27,935 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 × $30 22.5% OTM over spot $24.49 31 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.22 mid) = $1,875 credit for the 8d cycle → $7,031/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $30) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $30.23) 93% EV / mo +$3,127 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 66% whole by 9mo vs 63% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,853/mo median; plan ~$3,300/mo after 68% keep · $15,928 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.7-3.0], measured ONLY among the 66% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$19,366 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $32 @ 70% POP 63% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.40/sh now → $1.70 mid-life (likely $1.33–$2.43) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.55/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 352 simulated challenges: the $30 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $31 (overshoots $0.90). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $30 is $2 below CC-SS $32.38: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $30.23 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $30)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $28.49 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $32.38, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-83,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$83,291 − CC assignment net of premium (125 × $30): -$27,935 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-27,895 (+$55,355 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $291 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-28,185, the opportunity cost of earning $7,031/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.81 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$58,250, position total $-32,624 (+$50,626 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 96 × $27 | 31 Jul | 8d | 10.2% | 77% | 49% | +5pp | $3,552 | $13,320 | -$6,840 | $48,142 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 96 × $27 10.2% OTM over spot $24.49 31 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.64 mid) = $3,552 credit for the 8d cycle → $13,320/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $27.64) 81% EV / mo $-1,874 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 66% whole by 9mo vs 61% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $6,234/mo median; plan ~$4,239/mo after 68% keep · $19,214 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.6-2.7], measured ONLY among the 66% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 38% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$10,334 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $30 @ 74% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 96 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.04/sh now → $1.45 mid-life (likely $1.56–$2.40) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.37/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.08/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,147 simulated challenges: the $27 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $28 (overshoots $0.86). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27 is $5 below CC-SS $32.38: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.37 collected) or spot ≥ $27.64 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $27)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $28.49 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $32.38, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-83,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$83,291 − CC assignment net of premium (96 × $27): -$48,142 + Conservative CC premium (29 × $34): +$58 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-48,044 (+$35,206 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $291 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-48,334, the opportunity cost of earning $13,320/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.81 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$71,424, position total $-48,089 (+$35,161 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 112 × $26.50 | 31 Jul | 8d | 8.2% | 73% | 45% | +6pp | $5,376 | $20,160 | — | $60,534 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 112 × $26.50 8.2% OTM over spot $24.49 31 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.73 mid) = $5,376 credit for the 8d cycle → $20,160/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26.50) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $27.23) 78% EV / mo $-2,307 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 70% whole by 9mo vs 64% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $8,827/mo median; plan ~$6,003/mo after 68% keep · $23,506 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.7-2.8], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 45% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$10,373 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $29 @ 74% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 112 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.99/sh now → $1.41 mid-life (likely $1.64–$2.38) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.48/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.93/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,340 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $27 (overshoots $0.82). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $26.50 is $6 below CC-SS $32.38: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.48 collected) or spot ≥ $27.23 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $28.49 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $32.38, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-83,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$83,291 − CC assignment net of premium (112 × $26.50): -$60,534 + Conservative CC premium (13 × $34): +$26 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-60,468 (+$22,782 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $291 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-60,758, the opportunity cost of earning $20,160/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.81 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$87,696, position total $-63,097 (+$20,153 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 111 × $25 | 31 Jul | 8d | 2.1% | 58% | 88% | +11pp | $10,767 | $40,376 | +$20,216 | $71,205 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 111 × $25 2.1% OTM over spot $24.49 31 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.24 mid) = $10,767 credit for the 8d cycle → $40,376/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25) 58% Breach risk 42% POP (stays ≤ $26.24) 70% EV / mo $-2,245 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +11pp 70% whole by 9mo vs 58% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $14,100/mo median; plan ~$9,588/mo after 68% keep · $39,288 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.6-2.6], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 70% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,531 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $29 @ 84% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 111 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.82/sh now → $1.29 mid-life (likely $1.76–$2.51) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.97/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.32/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,114 simulated challenges: the $25 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 8, at $26 (overshoots $0.88). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $25 is $7 below CC-SS $32.38: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.24/sh (~25% of the $0.97 collected) or spot ≥ $26.24 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $25)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $28.49 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $32.38, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-83,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$83,291 − CC assignment net of premium (111 × $25): -$71,205 + Conservative CC premium (14 × $34): +$28 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-71,136 (+$12,114 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $291 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-71,427, the opportunity cost of earning $40,376/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.81 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$98,124, position total $-73,604 (+$9,646 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 12 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.844 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$83,291 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $291
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $27.50 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.85 | 119/125 | $20,230 | $20,254 | 75% | 81% | +$3,764 | -$48,015 | 173.8% | $-47,962 (vs do-nothing $-48,253) |
| $26.50 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.48 | 112/125 | $20,160 | $20,212 | 73% | 78% | $-2,307 | -$60,534 | 219.1% | $-60,468 (vs do-nothing $-60,758) |
| $27 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.89 | 114/125 | $20,292 | $20,336 | 72% | 79% | +$1,747 | -$51,241 | 185.5% | $-51,179 (vs do-nothing $-51,469) |
| $26.50 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.95 | 106/125 | $20,140 | $20,216 | 69% | 76% | $-43 | -$52,309 | 189.4% | $-52,231 (vs do-nothing $-52,521) |
| $26 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.60 | 90/125 | $20,250 | $20,390 | 68% | 75% | $-2,401 | -$52,064 | 188.5% | $-51,953 (vs do-nothing $-52,244) |
| $26 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.33 | 111/125 | $20,131 | $20,187 | 64% | 74% | $-2,988 | -$56,109 | 203.1% | $-56,040 (vs do-nothing $-56,331) |
| $25.50 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.54 | 100/125 | $20,250 | $20,350 | 63% | 73% | $-11,000 | -$63,448 | 229.7% | $-63,358 (vs do-nothing $-63,648) |
| $25.50 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.30 | 78/125 | $20,280 | $20,468 | 62% | 73% | +$212 | -$43,562 | 157.7% | $-43,427 (vs do-nothing $-43,718) |
| $25 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.97 | 56/125 | $20,370 | $20,646 | 58% | 70% | $-1,133 | -$35,923 | 130.0% | $-35,745 (vs do-nothing $-36,035) |
| $25 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.85 | 80/125 | $20,182 | $20,362 | 58% | 71% | $-638 | -$44,279 | 160.3% | $-44,148 (vs do-nothing $-44,439) |
| $25 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.41 | 72/125 | $20,304 | $20,516 | 58% | 71% | $-1,077 | -$43,019 | 155.7% | $-42,872 (vs do-nothing $-43,163) |
| $24.50 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.61 | 63/125 | $20,286 | $20,534 | 54% | 69% | $-1,203 | -$39,531 | 143.1% | $-39,367 (vs do-nothing $-39,657) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 125 contracts at the conservative CC.