125 contracts (12,500 sh) | BE SS: $39.71 | CC-SS: $31.94 (banked floor $31.86) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $277,625 | (ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 12500 |
| Normal income ref | $51,000/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $4,593/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-84,812 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 125 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 31 Jul 2026 · 8d | 124 × $26.50 | 78% | $25,575 | $4,746 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 125 × $29 | 31 Jul | 8d | 21.5% | 91% | 19% | +3pp | $2,000 | $7,500 | -$18,075 | $34,693 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 × $29 21.5% OTM over spot $23.86 31 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.45 mid) = $2,000 credit for the 8d cycle → $7,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $29) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $29.45) 93% EV / mo +$2,657 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 62% whole by 9mo vs 59% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,742/mo median; plan ~$3,225/mo after 68% keep · $19,244 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.6-2.9], measured ONLY among the 62% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$17,027 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $32 @ 76% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.15/sh now → $1.52 mid-life (likely $1.32–$2.17) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.36/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 388 simulated challenges: the $29 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $30 (overshoots $0.93). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $29 is $3 below CC-SS $31.94: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.16 collected) or spot ≥ $29.45 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $29)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $28.52 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $31.94, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-84,812 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$84,792 − CC assignment net of premium (125 × $29): -$34,693 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-34,713 (+$50,099 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $1,230 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-35,943, the opportunity cost of earning $7,500/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.83 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$70,875, position total $-40,502 (+$44,310 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 100 × $27 | 31 Jul | 8d | 13.2% | 81% | 39% | +7pp | $4,500 | $16,875 | -$8,700 | $44,855 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 100 × $27 13.2% OTM over spot $23.86 31 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.51 mid) = $4,500 credit for the 8d cycle → $16,875/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $27.50) 84% EV / mo +$5,772 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 69% whole by 9mo vs 62% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $9,173/mo median; plan ~$6,238/mo after 68% keep · $27,017 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.6-2.8], measured ONLY among the 69% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 28% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$9,147 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $32 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 100 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.93/sh now → $1.36 mid-life (likely $1.38–$2.15) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.91/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 836 simulated challenges: the $27 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $28 (overshoots $0.81). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27 is $5 below CC-SS $31.94: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.45 collected) or spot ≥ $27.50 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $27)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $28.52 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $31.94, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-84,812 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$84,792 − CC assignment net of premium (100 × $27): -$44,855 + Conservative CC premium (25 × $35): +$250 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-44,625 (+$40,188 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $1,230 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-45,855, the opportunity cost of earning $16,875/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.83 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$73,800, position total $-43,177 (+$41,635 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 124 × $26.50 | 31 Jul | 8d | 11.1% | 78% | 34% | +10pp | $6,820 | $25,575 | — | $60,580 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 124 × $26.50 11.1% OTM over spot $23.86 31 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.60 mid) = $6,820 credit for the 8d cycle → $25,575/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26.50) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $27.10) 82% EV / mo +$7,915 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 71% whole by 9mo vs 62% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $12,840/mo median; plan ~$8,731/mo after 68% keep · $38,685 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.7-3.2], measured ONLY among the 71% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$9,630 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $33 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 124 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.88/sh now → $1.33 mid-life (likely $1.40–$2.18) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.78/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,013 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $27 (overshoots $0.84). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $26.50 is $5 below CC-SS $31.94: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.55 collected) or spot ≥ $27.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $28.52 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $31.94, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-84,812 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$84,792 − CC assignment net of premium (124 × $26.50): -$60,580 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $35): +$10 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-60,590 (+$24,223 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $1,230 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-61,820, the opportunity cost of earning $25,575/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.83 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$96,472, position total $-66,089 (+$18,723 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 122 × $24.50 | 31 Jul | 8d | 2.7% | 60% | 85% | +15pp | $13,664 | $51,240 | +$25,665 | $77,049 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 122 × $24.50 2.7% OTM over spot $23.86 31 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.29 mid) = $13,664 credit for the 8d cycle → $51,240/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $24.50) 60% Breach risk 40% POP (stays ≤ $25.79) 72% EV / mo +$7,943 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +15pp 74% whole by 9mo vs 59% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $19,305/mo median; plan ~$13,127/mo after 68% keep · $44,293 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.5-2.7], measured ONLY among the 74% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 68% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$718 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $31 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 122 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.67/sh now → $1.18 mid-life (likely $1.57–$2.26) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.06/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,035 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $25 (overshoots $0.83). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $24.50 is $7 below CC-SS $31.94: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.28/sh (~25% of the $1.12 collected) or spot ≥ $25.79 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $24)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $28.52 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $31.94, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-84,812 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$84,792 − CC assignment net of premium (122 × $24.50): -$77,049 + Conservative CC premium (3 × $35): +$30 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-77,039 (+$7,774 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $1,230 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-78,269, the opportunity cost of earning $51,240/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.83 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$112,362, position total $-81,959 (+$2,853 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 17 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.840 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$84,792 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $1,230
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $26.50 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.55 | 124/125 | $25,575 | $25,595 | 78% | 82% | +$7,915 | -$60,580 | 219.3% | $-60,590 (vs do-nothing $-61,820) |
| $26 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.67 | 102/125 | $25,628 | $26,088 | 74% | 79% | +$7,132 | -$53,708 | 194.4% | $-53,498 (vs do-nothing $-54,728) |
| $26.50 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.08 | 119/125 | $25,704 | $25,824 | 72% | 78% | +$4,860 | -$51,830 | 187.6% | $-51,790 (vs do-nothing $-53,020) |
| $25.50 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.81 | 84/125 | $25,515 | $26,335 | 70% | 77% | +$6,283 | -$47,254 | 171.1% | $-46,864 (vs do-nothing $-48,094) |
| $26 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.25 | 102/125 | $25,500 | $25,960 | 69% | 77% | +$4,757 | -$47,792 | 173.0% | $-47,582 (vs do-nothing $-48,812) |
| $26 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.54 | 122/125 | $25,620 | $25,680 | 68% | 76% | +$4,403 | -$53,625 | 194.1% | $-53,615 (vs do-nothing $-54,845) |
| $25.50 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.45 | 88/125 | $25,520 | $26,260 | 66% | 75% | +$4,818 | -$43,872 | 158.8% | $-43,522 (vs do-nothing $-44,752) |
| $25 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.97 | 71/125 | $25,826 | $26,906 | 65% | 74% | +$5,488 | -$42,355 | 153.3% | $-41,835 (vs do-nothing $-43,065) |
| $25 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.59 | 81/125 | $25,758 | $26,638 | 63% | 73% | +$3,802 | -$43,298 | 156.7% | $-42,878 (vs do-nothing $-44,108) |
| $25 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.90 | 99/125 | $25,650 | $26,170 | 62% | 73% | +$3,903 | -$49,851 | 180.5% | $-49,611 (vs do-nothing $-50,841) |
| $24.50 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.12 | 61/125 | $25,620 | $26,900 | 60% | 72% | +$3,971 | -$38,524 | 139.5% | $-37,904 (vs do-nothing $-39,134) |
| $24.50 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.81 | 71/125 | $25,702 | $26,782 | 59% | 71% | +$3,623 | -$39,941 | 144.6% | $-39,421 (vs do-nothing $-40,651) |
| $24 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.30 | 82/125 | $25,718 | $26,578 | 56% | 70% | +$3,126 | -$46,211 | 167.3% | $-45,801 (vs do-nothing $-47,031) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $24 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.04 | 63/125 | $25,704 | $26,944 | 56% | 70% | +$3,329 | -$37,141 | 134.4% | $-36,542 (vs do-nothing $-37,771) |
| $24 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.37 | 50/125 | $25,688 | $27,188 | 55% | 69% | +$3,930 | -$32,827 | 118.8% | $-32,097 (vs do-nothing $-33,327) |
| $23.50 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.29 | 56/125 | $25,648 | $27,028 | 52% | 68% | +$3,040 | -$34,415 | 124.6% | $-33,745 (vs do-nothing $-34,975) |
| $23.50 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.59 | 43/125 | $25,639 | $27,279 | 49% | 67% | +$2,942 | -$29,436 | 106.6% | $-28,636 (vs do-nothing $-29,866) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 125 contracts at the conservative CC.