125 contracts (12,500 sh) | BE SS: $39.71 | CC-SS: $33.64 (banked floor $33.56) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $277,625 | (ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 12500 |
| Normal income ref | $48,529/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $4,705/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-118,750 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 125 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 31 Jul 2026 · 3d | 90 × $25 | 90% | $24,300 | $18,867 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 7 Aug 2026 · 10d | 125 × $26 | 82% | $24,375 | $-3,707 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 33% normal | 101 × $26 | 31 Jul | 3d | 17.3% | 95%hist 100% | 10%hist 1% | +11pp | $1,616 | $16,160 | -$8,140 | $75,583 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 101 × $26 17.3% OTM over spot $22.17 31 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.18 mid) = $1,616 credit for the 3d cycle → $16,160/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $26.18) 96% EV / mo +$13,939 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +11pp 47% whole by 9mo vs 36% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $7,964/mo median; plan ~$5,415/mo after 68% keep · $47,196 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.0 mo [1.7-5.4], measured ONLY among the 47% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$11,244 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $31 @ 84% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 101 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.80/sh now → $1.27 mid-life (likely $1.09–$2.27) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.11/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 169 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 3, at $27 (overshoots $0.81). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $26 is $8 below CC-SS $33.64: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.16 collected) or spot ≥ $26.18 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.99 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.56 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.64, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-118,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$80,888 − CC assignment net of premium (101 × $26): -$75,583 + Conservative CC premium (24 × $34): +$72 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-113,373 (+$5,377 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-37,487 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-75,886, the opportunity cost of earning $16,160/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.79 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$87,163, position total $-118,766 ($-16 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 125 × $26 | 31 Jul | 3d | 17.3% | 95%hist 100% | 10%hist 1% | +13pp | $2,000 | $20,000 | -$4,300 | $93,543 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 × $26 17.3% OTM over spot $22.17 31 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.18 mid) = $2,000 credit for the 3d cycle → $20,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $26.18) 96% EV / mo +$17,252 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +13pp 55% whole by 9mo vs 42% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $9,674/mo median; plan ~$6,579/mo after 68% keep · $51,207 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.6 mo [1.3-4.4], measured ONLY among the 55% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 5% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$13,915 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $31 @ 84% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.80/sh now → $1.27 mid-life (likely $1.17–$2.20) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.11/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 154 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 3, at $27 (overshoots $0.85). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $26 is $8 below CC-SS $33.64: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.16 collected) or spot ≥ $26.18 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.99 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.56 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.64, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-118,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$80,888 − CC assignment net of premium (125 × $26): -$93,543 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-131,405 ($-12,655 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-37,487 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-93,918, the opportunity cost of earning $20,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.79 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$107,875, position total $-137,654 ($-18,904 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 90 × $25 | 31 Jul | 3d | 12.8% | 90%hist 99% | 21%hist 13% | +20pp | $2,430 | $24,300 | — | $75,361 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 90 × $25 12.8% OTM over spot $22.17 31 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.33 mid) = $2,430 credit for the 3d cycle → $24,300/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $25.32) 92% EV / mo +$18,288 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +20pp 57% whole by 9mo vs 37% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $13,896/mo median; plan ~$9,450/mo after 68% keep · $74,453 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.1 mo [1.7-5.2], measured ONLY among the 57% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$8,375 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $30 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 90 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.70/sh now → $1.20 mid-life (likely $1.08–$2.18) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.27/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.93/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 373 simulated challenges: the $25 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $26 (overshoots $0.76). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $25 is $9 below CC-SS $33.64: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.27 collected) or spot ≥ $25.32 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $25)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.99 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.56 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.64, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-118,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$80,888 − CC assignment net of premium (90 × $25): -$75,361 + Conservative CC premium (35 × $34): +$105 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-113,118 (+$5,632 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-37,487 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-75,631, the opportunity cost of earning $24,300/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.79 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$85,680, position total $-118,119 (+$631 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 104 × $24 | 31 Jul | 3d | 8.3% | 80%hist 99% | 40%hist 28% | +32pp | $4,888 | $48,880 | +$24,580 | $95,404 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 104 × $24 8.3% OTM over spot $22.17 31 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.53 mid) = $4,888 credit for the 3d cycle → $48,880/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $24) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $24.53) 86% EV / mo +$30,419 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +32pp 70% whole by 9mo vs 38% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $22,995/mo median; plan ~$15,637/mo after 68% keep · $96,156 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.6 mo [1.5-3.9], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 27% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,862 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $31 @ 89% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 104 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.60/sh now → $1.13 mid-life (likely $1.18–$2.19) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.47/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.66/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 813 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $25 (overshoots $0.77). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $24 is $10 below CC-SS $33.64: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.47 collected) or spot ≥ $24.53 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $24)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.99 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.56 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.64, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-118,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$80,888 − CC assignment net of premium (104 × $24): -$95,404 + Conservative CC premium (21 × $34): +$63 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-133,203 ($-14,453 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-37,487 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-95,716, the opportunity cost of earning $48,880/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.79 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$107,328, position total $-138,703 ($-19,953 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 125 × $28 | 7 Aug | 10d | 26.3% | 90%hist 100% | 20%hist 13% | +9pp | $4,250 | $12,750 | -$11,625 | $66,293 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 × $28 26.3% OTM over spot $22.17 7 Aug 2026 (10d, $0.46 mid) = $4,250 credit for the 10d cycle → $12,750/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $28) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $28.46) 92% EV / mo +$7,261 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 48% whole by 9mo vs 39% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $7,347/mo median; plan ~$4,996/mo after 68% keep · $44,561 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.8 mo [1.5-4.8], measured ONLY among the 48% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 16% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$24,886 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $31 @ 77% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.29/sh now → $2.33 mid-life (likely $1.99–$3.19) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.34/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.99/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 485 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $29 (overshoots $0.94). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $28 is $6 below CC-SS $33.64: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.34 collected) or spot ≥ $28.46 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.99 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.56 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.64, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-118,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$80,888 − CC assignment net of premium (125 × $28): -$66,293 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-104,155 (+$14,595 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-37,487 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-66,668, the opportunity cost of earning $12,750/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.79 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$80,625, position total $-110,404 (+$8,346 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 122 × $27.50 | 7 Aug | 10d | 24.0% | 89%hist 99% | 24%hist 13% | +9pp | $5,368 | $16,104 | -$8,271 | $69,582 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 122 × $27.50 24.0% OTM over spot $22.17 7 Aug 2026 (10d, $0.64 mid) = $5,368 credit for the 10d cycle → $16,104/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27.50) 89% Breach risk 11% POP (stays ≤ $28.14) 91% EV / mo +$9,315 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 45% whole by 9mo vs 36% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $8,620/mo median; plan ~$5,861/mo after 68% keep · $53,769 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.6 mo [1.4-4.0], measured ONLY among the 45% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 19% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$22,329 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $30 @ 77% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 122 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.21/sh now → $2.27 mid-life (likely $2.09–$3.26) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.44/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.83/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 561 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $28 (overshoots $0.98). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27.50 is $6 below CC-SS $33.64: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.44 collected) or spot ≥ $28.14 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.99 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.56 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.64, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-118,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$80,888 − CC assignment net of premium (122 × $27.50): -$69,582 + Conservative CC premium (3 × $34): +$9 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-107,435 (+$11,315 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-37,487 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-69,948, the opportunity cost of earning $16,104/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.79 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$83,570, position total $-113,577 (+$5,173 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 125 × $26 | 7 Aug | 10d | 17.3% | 82%hist 99% | 38%hist 18% | +14pp | $8,125 | $24,375 | — | $87,418 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 × $26 17.3% OTM over spot $22.17 7 Aug 2026 (10d, $0.90 mid) = $8,125 credit for the 10d cycle → $24,375/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $26.90) 86% EV / mo +$10,715 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +14pp 51% whole by 9mo vs 36% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $11,269/mo median; plan ~$7,663/mo after 68% keep · $64,017 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.8 mo [1.5-4.4], measured ONLY among the 51% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$18,032 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $29 @ 79% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.96/sh now → $2.09 mid-life (likely $2.14–$3.29) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.44/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 948 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $27 (overshoots $1.01). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $26 is $8 below CC-SS $33.64: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.16/sh (~25% of the $0.65 collected) or spot ≥ $26.90 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.99 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.56 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.64, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-118,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$80,888 − CC assignment net of premium (125 × $26): -$87,418 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-125,280 ($-6,530 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-37,487 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-87,793, the opportunity cost of earning $24,375/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.79 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$101,750, position total $-131,529 ($-12,779 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 125 × $24 | 7 Aug | 10d | 8.3% | 69%hist 80% | 66%hist 51% | +21pp | $16,250 | $48,750 | +$24,375 | $104,293 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 × $24 8.3% OTM over spot $22.17 7 Aug 2026 (10d, $1.40 mid) = $16,250 credit for the 10d cycle → $48,750/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $24) 69% Breach risk 31% POP (stays ≤ $25.39) 78% EV / mo +$18,274 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +21pp 65% whole by 9mo vs 44% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $17,145/mo median; plan ~$11,659/mo after 68% keep · $80,664 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.1 mo [1.3-4.3], measured ONLY among the 65% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 55% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$7,067 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $29 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.64/sh now → $1.87 mid-life (likely $2.28–$3.17) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.57/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,638 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 10, at $25 (overshoots $0.91). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $24 is $10 below CC-SS $33.64: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.33/sh (~25% of the $1.30 collected) or spot ≥ $25.39 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $24)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.99 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.56 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.64, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-118,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$80,888 − CC assignment net of premium (125 × $24): -$104,293 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-142,155 ($-23,405 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-37,487 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-104,668, the opportunity cost of earning $48,750/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.79 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$118,625, position total $-148,404 ($-29,654 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 24 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.564 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$80,888 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-37,487
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $25 | 3d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.27 | 90/125 | $24,300 | $24,485 | 90% | 92% | +$18,288 | -$75,361 | 272.8% | $-113,118 (vs do-nothing $-75,631) |
| $24.50 | 3d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.29 | 84/125 | $24,360 | $24,577 | 86% | 89% | +$15,055 | -$74,369 | 269.2% | $-112,108 (vs do-nothing $-74,621) |
| $26 | 10d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.65 | 125/125 | $24,375 | $24,375 | 82% | 86% | +$10,715 | -$87,418 | 316.4% | $-125,280 (vs do-nothing $-87,793) |
| $24 | 3d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.47 | 52/125 | $24,440 | $24,826 | 80% | 86% | +$15,209 | -$47,702 | 172.7% | $-85,345 (vs do-nothing $-47,858) |
| $25 | 10d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.91 | 89/125 | $24,297 | $24,488 | 76% | 82% | +$9,553 | -$68,828 | 249.2% | $-106,582 (vs do-nothing $-69,095) |
| $23.50 | 3d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.62 | 40/125 | $24,800 | $25,250 | 74% | 83% | +$13,811 | -$38,094 | 137.9% | $-75,701 (vs do-nothing $-38,214) |
| $24.50 | 10d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.05 | 78/125 | $24,570 | $24,819 | 73% | 80% | +$8,834 | -$63,129 | 228.5% | $-100,850 (vs do-nothing $-63,363) |
| $24.50 | 17d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.26 | 110/125 | $24,459 | $24,538 | 71% | 79% | +$6,715 | -$86,718 | 313.9% | $-124,535 (vs do-nothing $-87,048) |
| $24 | 10d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.30 | 63/125 | $24,570 | $24,898 | 69% | 78% | +$9,210 | -$52,564 | 190.3% | $-90,240 (vs do-nothing $-52,753) |
| $24 | 24d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.74 | 112/125 | $24,360 | $24,429 | 67% | 78% | +$6,697 | -$88,519 | 320.4% | $-126,342 (vs do-nothing $-88,855) |
| $23 | 3d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.82 | 30/125 | $24,600 | $25,103 | 67% | 80% | +$12,593 | -$29,470 | 106.7% | $-67,047 (vs do-nothing $-29,560) |
| $23.50 | 10d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.40 | 58/125 | $24,360 | $24,715 | 65% | 76% | +$7,402 | -$50,712 | 183.6% | $-88,373 (vs do-nothing $-50,886) |
| $23.50 | 17d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.67 | 83/125 | $24,461 | $24,683 | 64% | 76% | +$6,401 | -$70,330 | 254.6% | $-108,066 (vs do-nothing $-70,579) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $23 | 10d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.53 | 53/125 | $24,327 | $24,708 | 61% | 74% | +$5,888 | -$48,301 | 174.8% | $-85,947 (vs do-nothing $-48,460) |
| $23 | 17d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.89 | 73/125 | $24,348 | $24,623 | 61% | 74% | +$6,034 | -$63,900 | 231.3% | $-101,606 (vs do-nothing $-64,119) |
| $23 | 24d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.14 | 91/125 | $24,342 | $24,522 | 61% | 75% | +$5,762 | -$77,382 | 280.1% | $-115,142 (vs do-nothing $-77,655) |
| $22.50 | 3d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.05 | 24/125 | $25,200 | $25,735 | 58% | 76% | +$11,214 | -$24,224 | 87.7% | $-61,783 (vs do-nothing $-24,296) |
| $22.50 | 24d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.91 | 102/125 | $24,352 | $24,474 | 57% | 71% | +$764 | -$94,181 | 340.9% | $-131,974 (vs do-nothing $-94,487) |
| $22.50 | 17d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.98 | 70/125 | $24,459 | $24,750 | 57% | 72% | +$4,304 | -$64,144 | 232.2% | $-101,841 (vs do-nothing $-64,354) |
| $22.50 | 10d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.80 | 45/125 | $24,300 | $24,724 | 57% | 72% | +$5,815 | -$42,046 | 152.2% | $-79,668 (vs do-nothing $-42,181) |
| $22 | 24d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.62 | 75/125 | $24,563 | $24,827 | 54% | 71% | +$4,986 | -$67,676 | 245.0% | $-105,388 (vs do-nothing $-67,901) |
| $22 | 17d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.37 | 59/125 | $24,676 | $25,025 | 53% | 71% | +$5,269 | -$54,713 | 198.1% | $-92,378 (vs do-nothing $-54,890) |
| $22 | 10d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.10 | 39/125 | $24,570 | $25,025 | 53% | 71% | +$5,800 | -$37,220 | 134.7% | $-74,824 (vs do-nothing $-37,337) |
| $22 | 3d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.34 | 19/125 | $25,460 | $26,021 | 49% | 73% | +$9,887 | -$19,577 | 70.9% | $-57,121 (vs do-nothing $-19,634) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 125 contracts at the conservative CC.