125 contracts (12,500 sh) | BE SS: $39.71 | CC-SS: $33.31 (banked floor $33.23) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $277,625 | (ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 12500 |
| Normal income ref | $43,676/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $4,705/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-116,000 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 125 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 31 Jul 2026 · 3d | 81 × $25 | 89% | $21,870 | $17,088 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 7 Aug 2026 · 10d | 124 × $26.50 | 84% | $21,948 | $-1,524 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | 33% normal | 91 × $26 | 31 Jul | 3d | 16.8% | 94%hist 100% | 11%hist 5% | +8pp | $1,456 | $14,560 | -$7,310 | $65,097 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 91 × $26 16.8% OTM over spot $22.26 31 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.18 mid) = $1,456 credit for the 3d cycle → $14,560/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $26.18) 95% EV / mo +$12,019 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 63% whole by 9mo vs 55% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $8,702/mo median; plan ~$5,917/mo after 68% keep · $33,631 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.9-3.5], measured ONLY among the 63% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$9,452 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $31 @ 83% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 91 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.69/sh now → $1.20 mid-life (likely $1.10–$2.02) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.04/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 222 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 3, at $27 (overshoots $0.79). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $26 is $7 below CC-SS $33.31: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.16 collected) or spot ≥ $26.18 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.98 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.31, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-116,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$114,404 − CC assignment net of premium (91 × $26): -$65,097 + Conservative CC premium (34 × $34): +$102 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-66,591 (+$49,409 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,221 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-65,370, the opportunity cost of earning $14,560/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.79 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$78,533, position total $-67,431 (+$48,568 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 125 × $26 | 31 Jul | 3d | 16.8% | 94%hist 100% | 11%hist 5% | +9pp | $2,000 | $20,000 | -$1,870 | $89,419 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 × $26 16.8% OTM over spot $22.26 31 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.18 mid) = $2,000 credit for the 3d cycle → $20,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $26.18) 95% EV / mo +$16,510 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 64% whole by 9mo vs 54% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $11,239/mo median; plan ~$7,642/mo after 68% keep · $47,059 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.9 mo [0.9-3.6], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$12,983 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $31 @ 83% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.69/sh now → $1.20 mid-life (likely $1.19–$2.20) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.04/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 180 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $27 (overshoots $0.85). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $26 is $7 below CC-SS $33.31: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.16 collected) or spot ≥ $26.18 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.98 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.31, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-116,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$114,404 − CC assignment net of premium (125 × $26): -$89,419 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-91,015 (+$24,985 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,221 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-89,794, the opportunity cost of earning $20,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.79 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$107,875, position total $-94,189 (+$21,810 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 81 × $25 | 31 Jul | 3d | 12.3% | 89%hist 99% | 23%hist 13% | +15pp | $2,187 | $21,870 | — | $65,153 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 81 × $25 12.3% OTM over spot $22.26 31 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.33 mid) = $2,187 credit for the 3d cycle → $21,870/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25) 89% Breach risk 11% POP (stays ≤ $25.32) 91% EV / mo +$15,568 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +15pp 66% whole by 9mo vs 51% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $13,592/mo median; plan ~$9,242/mo after 68% keep · $55,191 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.9 mo [1.0-3.7], measured ONLY among the 66% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,971 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $30 @ 84% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 81 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.60/sh now → $1.13 mid-life (likely $1.04–$2.01) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.27/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.86/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 425 simulated challenges: the $25 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $26 (overshoots $0.77). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $25 is $8 below CC-SS $33.31: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.27 collected) or spot ≥ $25.32 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $25)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.98 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.31, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-116,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$114,404 − CC assignment net of premium (81 × $25): -$65,153 + Conservative CC premium (44 × $34): +$132 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-66,617 (+$49,383 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,221 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-65,396, the opportunity cost of earning $21,870/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.79 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$77,112, position total $-66,770 (+$49,229 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 93 × $24 | 31 Jul | 3d | 7.8% | 79%hist 96% | 43%hist 28% | +19pp | $4,371 | $43,710 | +$21,840 | $82,245 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 93 × $24 7.8% OTM over spot $22.26 31 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.53 mid) = $4,371 credit for the 3d cycle → $43,710/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $24) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $24.53) 85% EV / mo +$25,096 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +19pp 71% whole by 9mo vs 52% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $20,438/mo median; plan ~$13,898/mo after 68% keep · $74,111 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [1.0-3.5], measured ONLY among the 71% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 29% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,528 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $31 @ 89% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 93 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.50/sh now → $1.06 mid-life (likely $1.13–$2.15) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.47/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.59/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 858 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $25 (overshoots $0.81). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $24 is $9 below CC-SS $33.31: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.47 collected) or spot ≥ $24.53 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $24)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.98 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.31, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-116,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$114,404 − CC assignment net of premium (93 × $24): -$82,245 + Conservative CC premium (32 × $34): +$96 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-83,745 (+$32,255 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,221 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-82,524, the opportunity cost of earning $43,710/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.79 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$95,976, position total $-84,722 (+$31,277 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 125 × $29 | 7 Aug | 10d | 30.3% | 93%hist 100% | 15%hist 5% | +6pp | $3,375 | $10,125 | -$11,823 | $50,544 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 × $29 30.3% OTM over spot $22.26 7 Aug 2026 (10d, $0.34 mid) = $3,375 credit for the 10d cycle → $10,125/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $29) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $29.34) 94% EV / mo +$6,547 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 55% whole by 9mo vs 49% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $6,328/mo median; plan ~$4,303/mo after 68% keep · $33,042 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [1.0-3.9], measured ONLY among the 55% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$26,942 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $32 @ 76% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.43/sh now → $2.43 mid-life (likely $1.87–$3.27) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.27/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.16/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 371 simulated challenges: the $29 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $30 (overshoots $1.03). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $29 is $4 below CC-SS $33.31: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.27 collected) or spot ≥ $29.34 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $29)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.98 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.31, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-116,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$114,404 − CC assignment net of premium (125 × $29): -$50,544 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-52,140 (+$63,860 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,221 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-50,919, the opportunity cost of earning $10,125/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.79 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$69,000, position total $-55,314 (+$60,685 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 110 × $27.50 | 7 Aug | 10d | 23.5% | 88%hist 99% | 25%hist 13% | +6pp | $4,840 | $14,520 | -$7,428 | $59,109 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 110 × $27.50 23.5% OTM over spot $22.26 7 Aug 2026 (10d, $0.64 mid) = $4,840 credit for the 10d cycle → $14,520/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27.50) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $28.14) 90% EV / mo +$8,060 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 56% whole by 9mo vs 50% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $8,047/mo median; plan ~$5,472/mo after 68% keep · $41,401 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.8-3.5], measured ONLY among the 56% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 21% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$19,839 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $30 @ 77% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 110 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.17/sh now → $2.24 mid-life (likely $2.02–$3.28) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.44/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.80/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 639 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $29 (overshoots $1.03). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27.50 is $6 below CC-SS $33.31: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.44 collected) or spot ≥ $28.14 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.98 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.31, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-116,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$114,404 − CC assignment net of premium (110 × $27.50): -$59,109 + Conservative CC premium (15 × $34): +$45 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-60,660 (+$55,340 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,221 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-59,439, the opportunity cost of earning $14,520/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.79 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$75,350, position total $-62,804 (+$53,195 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 124 × $26.50 | 7 Aug | 10d | 19.0% | 84%hist 99% | 34%hist 18% | +8pp | $7,316 | $21,948 | — | $77,172 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 124 × $26.50 19.0% OTM over spot $22.26 7 Aug 2026 (10d, $0.68 mid) = $7,316 credit for the 10d cycle → $21,948/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26.50) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $27.18) 87% EV / mo +$10,506 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 59% whole by 9mo vs 51% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $11,248/mo median; plan ~$7,649/mo after 68% keep · $49,376 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.8-3.2], measured ONLY among the 59% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 27% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$19,044 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $30 @ 78% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 124 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.00/sh now → $2.13 mid-life (likely $2.08–$3.23) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.59/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.54/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 817 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $28 (overshoots $1.03). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $26.50 is $7 below CC-SS $33.31: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.59 collected) or spot ≥ $27.18 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.98 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.31, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-116,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$114,404 − CC assignment net of premium (124 × $26.50): -$77,172 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $34): +$3 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-78,765 (+$37,235 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,221 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-77,544, the opportunity cost of earning $21,948/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.79 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$95,480, position total $-81,870 (+$34,129 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 112 × $24 | 7 Aug | 10d | 7.8% | 68%hist 80% | 68%hist 51% | +14pp | $14,560 | $43,680 | +$21,732 | $89,752 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 112 × $24 7.8% OTM over spot $22.26 7 Aug 2026 (10d, $1.40 mid) = $14,560 credit for the 10d cycle → $43,680/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $24) 68% Breach risk 32% POP (stays ≤ $25.39) 78% EV / mo +$15,299 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +14pp 68% whole by 9mo vs 55% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $17,063/mo median; plan ~$11,603/mo after 68% keep · $57,343 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.8-2.9], measured ONLY among the 68% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 55% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,084 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $29 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 112 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.60/sh now → $1.84 mid-life (likely $2.29–$3.17) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.54/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,653 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 10, at $25 (overshoots $0.90). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $24 is $9 below CC-SS $33.31: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.33/sh (~25% of the $1.30 collected) or spot ≥ $25.39 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $24)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.98 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.31, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-116,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$114,404 − CC assignment net of premium (112 × $24): -$89,752 + Conservative CC premium (13 × $34): +$39 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-91,309 (+$24,691 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,221 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-90,088, the opportunity cost of earning $43,680/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.79 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$106,288, position total $-93,590 (+$22,409 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 29 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.828 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$114,404 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,221
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $25 | 3d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.27 | 81/125 | $21,870 | $22,103 | 89% | 91% | +$15,568 | -$65,153 | 235.8% | $-66,617 (vs do-nothing $-65,396) |
| $24.50 | 3d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.29 | 76/125 | $22,040 | $22,299 | 84% | 88% | +$12,397 | -$64,779 | 234.5% | $-66,228 (vs do-nothing $-65,007) |
| $26.50 | 10d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.59 | 124/125 | $21,948 | $21,953 | 84% | 87% | +$10,506 | -$77,172 | 279.4% | $-78,765 (vs do-nothing $-77,544) |
| $26 | 10d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.65 | 112/125 | $21,840 | $21,909 | 81% | 86% | +$9,009 | -$74,632 | 270.2% | $-76,189 (vs do-nothing $-74,968) |
| $24 | 3d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.47 | 47/125 | $22,090 | $22,503 | 79% | 85% | +$12,683 | -$41,565 | 150.5% | $-42,926 (vs do-nothing $-41,706) |
| $25.50 | 17d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.03 | 121/125 | $21,994 | $22,015 | 76% | 81% | +$7,185 | -$82,081 | 297.1% | $-83,665 (vs do-nothing $-82,444) |
| $25 | 10d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.91 | 80/125 | $21,840 | $22,078 | 75% | 81% | +$8,007 | -$59,228 | 214.4% | $-60,689 (vs do-nothing $-59,468) |
| $23.50 | 3d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.62 | 36/125 | $22,320 | $22,791 | 72% | 81% | +$11,331 | -$33,097 | 119.8% | $-34,426 (vs do-nothing $-33,205) |
| $24.50 | 10d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.05 | 70/125 | $22,050 | $22,341 | 72% | 79% | +$7,342 | -$54,345 | 196.7% | $-55,776 (vs do-nothing $-54,555) |
| $25 | 24d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.41 | 124/125 | $21,855 | $21,860 | 72% | 79% | +$6,434 | -$85,604 | 309.9% | $-87,197 (vs do-nothing $-85,976) |
| $24.50 | 17d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.26 | 99/125 | $22,013 | $22,151 | 70% | 78% | +$5,472 | -$74,780 | 270.7% | $-76,298 (vs do-nothing $-75,077) |
| $24.50 | 24d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.45 | 121/125 | $21,931 | $21,952 | 69% | 77% | +$4,722 | -$89,099 | 322.5% | $-90,683 (vs do-nothing $-89,462) |
| $24 | 10d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.30 | 56/125 | $21,840 | $22,205 | 68% | 78% | +$7,650 | -$44,876 | 162.4% | $-46,265 (vs do-nothing $-45,044) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $24 | 17d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.07 | 116/125 | $21,904 | $21,951 | 67% | 76% | $-605 | -$95,625 | 346.2% | $-97,194 (vs do-nothing $-95,973) |
| $24 | 24d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.74 | 101/125 | $21,967 | $22,095 | 66% | 78% | +$5,577 | -$76,493 | 276.9% | $-78,017 (vs do-nothing $-76,796) |
| $23 | 3d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.82 | 27/125 | $22,140 | $22,659 | 65% | 79% | +$9,990 | -$25,633 | 92.8% | $-26,934 (vs do-nothing $-25,714) |
| $23.50 | 10d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.40 | 52/125 | $21,840 | $22,226 | 64% | 75% | +$6,070 | -$43,750 | 158.4% | $-45,127 (vs do-nothing $-43,906) |
| $23.50 | 17d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.67 | 75/125 | $22,103 | $22,368 | 64% | 75% | +$5,274 | -$61,077 | 221.1% | $-62,522 (vs do-nothing $-61,302) |
| $23 | 10d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.53 | 48/125 | $22,032 | $22,440 | 60% | 73% | +$4,745 | -$42,161 | 152.6% | $-43,526 (vs do-nothing $-42,305) |
| $23 | 17d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.89 | 66/125 | $22,013 | $22,325 | 60% | 73% | +$4,962 | -$55,595 | 201.3% | $-57,014 (vs do-nothing $-55,793) |
| $23 | 24d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.14 | 82/125 | $21,935 | $22,163 | 60% | 74% | +$4,746 | -$67,023 | 242.6% | $-68,490 (vs do-nothing $-67,269) |
| $22.50 | 24d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.91 | 92/125 | $21,965 | $22,140 | 57% | 71% | +$148 | -$81,913 | 296.5% | $-83,409 (vs do-nothing $-82,189) |
| $22.50 | 17d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.98 | 63/125 | $22,013 | $22,341 | 57% | 72% | +$3,358 | -$55,651 | 201.5% | $-57,061 (vs do-nothing $-55,840) |
| $22.50 | 3d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.05 | 21/125 | $22,050 | $22,601 | 56% | 74% | +$8,582 | -$20,503 | 74.2% | $-21,787 (vs do-nothing $-20,566) |
| $22.50 | 10d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.80 | 41/125 | $22,140 | $22,585 | 56% | 72% | +$4,740 | -$36,956 | 133.8% | $-38,299 (vs do-nothing $-37,079) |
| $22 | 24d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.62 | 67/125 | $21,943 | $22,250 | 54% | 70% | +$4,030 | -$58,247 | 210.8% | $-59,669 (vs do-nothing $-58,448) |
| $22 | 17d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.37 | 53/125 | $22,166 | $22,548 | 53% | 70% | +$4,262 | -$47,401 | 171.6% | $-48,781 (vs do-nothing $-47,560) |
| $22 | 10d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.10 | 35/125 | $22,050 | $22,526 | 52% | 70% | +$4,679 | -$32,247 | 116.7% | $-33,573 (vs do-nothing $-32,352) |
| $22 | 3d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.34 | 17/125 | $22,780 | $23,352 | 47% | 72% | +$7,752 | -$16,955 | 61.4% | $-18,227 (vs do-nothing $-17,006) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 125 contracts at the conservative CC.