125 contracts (12,500 sh) | BE SS: $39.71 | CC-SS: $33.86 (banked floor $33.78) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $277,625 | (ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 12500 |
| Normal income ref | $38,162/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $4,705/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-132,000 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 125 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 31 Jul 2026 · 3d | 113 × $23.50 | 85% | $19,210 | $4,916 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 7 Aug 2026 · 10d | 118 × $25 | 83% | $19,116 | $-2,467 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 125 × $27 | 7 Aug | 10d | 27.0% | 91%hist 100% | 20%hist 5% | +3pp | $2,625 | $7,875 | -$11,335 | $83,175 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 × $27 27.0% OTM over spot $21.26 7 Aug 2026 (10d, $0.39 mid) = $2,625 credit for the 10d cycle → $7,875/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $27.39) 92% EV / mo +$2,797 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 50% whole by 9mo vs 46% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,513/mo median; plan ~$3,069/mo after 68% keep · $24,872 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.9 mo [0.9-3.9], measured ONLY among the 50% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$26,209 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $29 @ 73% POP 64% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.26/sh now → $2.31 mid-life (likely $1.95–$3.23) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.21/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.10/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 382 simulated challenges: the $27 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $28 (overshoots $0.90). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27 is $7 below CC-SS $33.86: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.21 collected) or spot ≥ $27.39 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $27)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.68 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.86, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-132,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$128,403 − CC assignment net of premium (125 × $27): -$83,175 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-86,772 (+$45,228 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-38,772 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-48,000, the opportunity cost of earning $7,875/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $25.65 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-87,277 (+$44,723 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 75 × $23.50 | 31 Jul | 3d | 10.5% | 85%hist 99% | 31%hist 18% | +6pp | $1,275 | $12,750 | -$6,460 | $76,455 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 75 × $23.50 10.5% OTM over spot $21.26 31 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.42 mid) = $1,275 credit for the 3d cycle → $12,750/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $23.50) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $23.92) 89% EV / mo +$4,087 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 52% whole by 9mo vs 47% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $7,293/mo median; plan ~$4,959/mo after 68% keep · $40,670 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [1.1-3.7], measured ONLY among the 52% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 21% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,988 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $28 @ 80% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 75 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.56/sh now → $1.10 mid-life (likely $1.09–$2.04) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.93/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 620 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $24 (overshoots $0.75). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $23.50 is $10 below CC-SS $33.86: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $23.92 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $24)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.68 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.86, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-132,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$128,403 − CC assignment net of premium (75 × $23.50): -$76,455 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (50 × $31): -$14,070 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-94,122 (+$37,878 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-38,772 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-55,350, the opportunity cost of earning $12,750/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $25.65 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$14,850, position total $-101,877 (+$30,123 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 113 × $23.50 | 31 Jul | 3d | 10.5% | 85%hist 99% | 31%hist 18% | +9pp | $1,921 | $19,210 | — | $115,192 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 113 × $23.50 10.5% OTM over spot $21.26 31 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.42 mid) = $1,921 credit for the 3d cycle → $19,210/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $23.50) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $23.92) 89% EV / mo +$6,157 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 54% whole by 9mo vs 45% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $10,350/mo median; plan ~$7,038/mo after 68% keep · $56,967 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.6 mo [1.3-4.4], measured ONLY among the 54% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 20% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$10,528 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $28 @ 80% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 113 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.56/sh now → $1.10 mid-life (likely $1.06–$2.10) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.93/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 594 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $24 (overshoots $0.77). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $23.50 is $10 below CC-SS $33.86: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $23.92 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $24)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.68 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.86, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-132,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$128,403 − CC assignment net of premium (113 × $23.50): -$115,192 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (12 × $31): -$3,377 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-122,166 (+$9,834 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-38,772 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-83,394, the opportunity cost of earning $19,210/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $25.65 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$22,374, position total $-109,591 (+$22,409 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 94 × $22.50 | 31 Jul | 3d | 5.8% | 73%hist 96% | 56%hist 43% | +11pp | $3,854 | $38,540 | +$19,330 | $102,968 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 94 × $22.50 5.8% OTM over spot $21.26 31 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.67 mid) = $3,854 credit for the 3d cycle → $38,540/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $22.50) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $23.17) 81% EV / mo +$10,791 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +11pp 60% whole by 9mo vs 49% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~7.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $15,570/mo median; plan ~$10,588/mo after 68% keep · $78,375 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.1 mo [1.1-4.3], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 38% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,867 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $26 @ 85% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 94 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.46/sh now → $1.03 mid-life (likely $1.24–$2.19) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.41/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.62/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,127 simulated challenges: the $22 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $23 (overshoots $0.83). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $22.50 is $11 below CC-SS $33.86: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.41 collected) or spot ≥ $23.17 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $22)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.68 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.86, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-132,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$128,403 − CC assignment net of premium (94 × $22.50): -$102,968 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (31 × $31): -$8,723 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-115,288 (+$16,712 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-38,772 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-76,516, the opportunity cost of earning $38,540/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $25.65 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$25,756, position total $-112,878 (+$19,122 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 125 × $27 | 7 Aug | 10d | 27.0% | 91%hist 100% | 20%hist 5% | +3pp | $2,625 | $7,875 | -$11,241 | $83,175 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 × $27 27.0% OTM over spot $21.26 7 Aug 2026 (10d, $0.39 mid) = $2,625 credit for the 10d cycle → $7,875/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $27.39) 92% EV / mo +$2,797 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 50% whole by 9mo vs 46% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,513/mo median; plan ~$3,069/mo after 68% keep · $24,872 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.9 mo [0.9-3.9], measured ONLY among the 50% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$26,209 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $29 @ 73% POP 64% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.26/sh now → $2.31 mid-life (likely $1.95–$3.23) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.21/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.10/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 382 simulated challenges: the $27 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $28 (overshoots $0.90). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27 is $7 below CC-SS $33.86: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.21 collected) or spot ≥ $27.39 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $27)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.68 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.86, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-132,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$128,403 − CC assignment net of premium (125 × $27): -$83,175 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-86,772 (+$45,228 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-38,772 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-48,000, the opportunity cost of earning $7,875/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $25.65 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-87,277 (+$44,723 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 120 × $26 | 7 Aug | 10d | 22.3% | 87%hist 99% | 28%hist 13% | +5pp | $4,200 | $12,600 | -$6,516 | $90,168 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 120 × $26 22.3% OTM over spot $21.26 7 Aug 2026 (10d, $0.53 mid) = $4,200 credit for the 10d cycle → $12,600/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $26.54) 89% EV / mo +$4,617 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 54% whole by 9mo vs 48% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $6,692/mo median; plan ~$4,550/mo after 68% keep · $35,718 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [1.1-3.9], measured ONLY among the 54% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 18% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$21,953 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $28 @ 73% POP 64% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 120 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.08/sh now → $2.18 mid-life (likely $1.89–$3.14) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.83/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 525 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $27 (overshoots $0.88). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $26 is $8 below CC-SS $33.86: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.35 collected) or spot ≥ $26.54 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.68 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.86, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-132,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$128,403 − CC assignment net of premium (120 × $26): -$90,168 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $31): -$1,407 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-95,172 (+$36,828 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-38,772 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-56,400, the opportunity cost of earning $12,600/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $25.65 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-87,252 (+$44,748 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 118 × $25 | 7 Aug | 10d | 17.6% | 83%hist 99% | 35%hist 18% | +10pp | $6,372 | $19,116 | — | $98,223 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 118 × $25 17.6% OTM over spot $21.26 7 Aug 2026 (10d, $0.67 mid) = $6,372 credit for the 10d cycle → $19,116/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $25.67) 87% EV / mo +$9,231 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 57% whole by 9mo vs 46% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $9,657/mo median; plan ~$6,567/mo after 68% keep · $53,542 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.2 mo [1.1-4.5], measured ONLY among the 57% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 26% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$17,881 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $27 @ 75% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 118 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.90/sh now → $2.06 mid-life (likely $1.94–$3.13) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.54/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.52/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 787 simulated challenges: the $25 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $26 (overshoots $0.87). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $25 is $9 below CC-SS $33.86: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.54 collected) or spot ≥ $25.67 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $25)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.68 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.86, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-132,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$128,403 − CC assignment net of premium (118 × $25): -$98,223 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (7 × $31): -$1,970 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-103,790 (+$28,210 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-38,772 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-65,018, the opportunity cost of earning $19,116/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $25.65 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,298, position total $-88,540 (+$43,460 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 113 × $22.50 | 7 Aug | 10d | 5.8% | 66%hist 80% | 74%hist 59% | +17pp | $12,769 | $38,307 | +$19,191 | $115,644 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 113 × $22.50 5.8% OTM over spot $21.26 7 Aug 2026 (10d, $1.38 mid) = $12,769 credit for the 10d cycle → $38,307/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $22.50) 66% Breach risk 34% POP (stays ≤ $23.88) 77% EV / mo +$10,122 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +17pp 64% whole by 9mo vs 47% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $13,092/mo median; plan ~$8,903/mo after 68% keep · $66,530 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.4 mo [1.3-4.8], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 58% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$7,111 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $27 @ 83% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 113 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.49/sh now → $1.76 mid-life (likely $2.25–$3.07) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.63/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,728 simulated challenges: the $22 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $23 (overshoots $0.78). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $22.50 is $11 below CC-SS $33.86: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.28/sh (~25% of the $1.13 collected) or spot ≥ $23.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $22)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.68 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.86, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-132,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$128,403 − CC assignment net of premium (113 × $22.50): -$115,644 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (12 × $31): -$3,377 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-122,618 (+$9,382 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-38,772 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-83,846, the opportunity cost of earning $38,307/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $25.65 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$22,826, position total $-110,043 (+$21,957 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 28 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.815 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$128,403 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-38,772
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $23.50 | 3d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.17 | 113/125 | $19,210 | $19,390 | 85% | 89% | +$6,157 | -$115,192 | 417.0% | $-122,166 (vs do-nothing $-83,394) |
| $25 | 10d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.54 | 118/125 | $19,116 | $19,221 | 83% | 87% | +$9,231 | -$98,223 | 355.6% | $-103,790 (vs do-nothing $-65,018) |
| $24.50 | 10d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.65 | 98/125 | $19,110 | $19,515 | 81% | 85% | +$8,741 | -$85,397 | 309.1% | $-96,592 (vs do-nothing $-57,820) |
| $23 | 3d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.30 | 64/125 | $19,200 | $20,115 | 80% | 85% | +$7,146 | -$67,610 | 244.7% | $-88,372 (vs do-nothing $-49,600) |
| $24 | 10d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.75 | 85/125 | $19,125 | $19,725 | 77% | 83% | +$7,850 | -$77,469 | 280.4% | $-92,322 (vs do-nothing $-53,550) |
| $23.50 | 10d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.89 | 72/125 | $19,224 | $20,019 | 74% | 82% | +$7,341 | -$68,213 | 246.9% | $-86,724 (vs do-nothing $-47,952) |
| $24 | 17d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.99 | 110/125 | $19,218 | $19,443 | 74% | 80% | +$4,651 | -$97,614 | 353.4% | $-105,432 (vs do-nothing $-66,660) |
| $22.50 | 3d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.41 | 47/125 | $19,270 | $20,440 | 73% | 81% | +$5,395 | -$51,484 | 186.4% | $-77,030 (vs do-nothing $-38,258) |
| $24 | 24d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.23 | 125/125 | $19,219 | $19,219 | 71% | 78% | +$2,395 | -$107,925 | 390.7% | $-111,522 (vs do-nothing $-72,750) |
| $23.50 | 17d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.16 | 94/125 | $19,242 | $19,707 | 71% | 78% | +$4,605 | -$86,518 | 313.2% | $-98,838 (vs do-nothing $-60,066) |
| $23 | 10d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.89 | 72/125 | $19,224 | $20,019 | 70% | 79% | +$4,556 | -$71,813 | 260.0% | $-90,324 (vs do-nothing $-51,552) |
| $23.50 | 24d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.39 | 110/125 | $19,112 | $19,337 | 69% | 77% | +$2,371 | -$98,714 | 357.3% | $-106,532 (vs do-nothing $-67,760) |
| $23 | 17d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.14 | 95/125 | $19,112 | $19,562 | 67% | 76% | +$1,794 | -$92,378 | 334.4% | $-104,417 (vs do-nothing $-65,645) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $23 | 24d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.55 | 99/125 | $19,181 | $19,571 | 66% | 75% | +$2,184 | -$92,209 | 333.8% | $-103,122 (vs do-nothing $-64,350) |
| $22.50 | 10d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.13 | 57/125 | $19,323 | $20,343 | 66% | 77% | +$5,106 | -$58,334 | 211.2% | $-81,066 (vs do-nothing $-42,294) |
| $22 | 3d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.56 | 35/125 | $19,600 | $20,950 | 65% | 76% | +$4,053 | -$39,564 | 143.2% | $-68,487 (vs do-nothing $-29,715) |
| $22.50 | 17d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.47 | 74/125 | $19,196 | $19,961 | 64% | 75% | +$3,479 | -$73,216 | 265.0% | $-91,164 (vs do-nothing $-52,392) |
| $22.50 | 24d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.57 | 98/125 | $19,232 | $19,638 | 63% | 73% | +$298 | -$95,981 | 347.4% | $-107,176 (vs do-nothing $-68,404) |
| $22 | 10d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.38 | 47/125 | $19,458 | $20,628 | 61% | 75% | +$5,225 | -$49,275 | 178.4% | $-74,821 (vs do-nothing $-36,049) |
| $22 | 17d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.19 | 91/125 | $19,110 | $19,620 | 60% | 73% | $-3,300 | -$97,133 | 351.6% | $-110,298 (vs do-nothing $-71,526) |
| $22 | 24d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.70 | 90/125 | $19,125 | $19,650 | 60% | 72% | $-394 | -$91,476 | 331.1% | $-104,922 (vs do-nothing $-66,150) |
| $21.50 | 24d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.05 | 75/125 | $19,219 | $19,969 | 57% | 71% | +$1,008 | -$77,355 | 280.0% | $-95,022 (vs do-nothing $-56,250) |
| $21.50 | 17d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.73 | 63/125 | $19,234 | $20,164 | 57% | 74% | +$1,334 | -$66,994 | 242.5% | $-88,038 (vs do-nothing $-49,266) |
| $21.50 | 3d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.78 | 25/125 | $19,500 | $21,000 | 56% | 72% | +$3,458 | -$28,960 | 104.8% | $-60,697 (vs do-nothing $-21,925) |
| $21.50 | 10d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.50 | 43/125 | $19,350 | $20,580 | 56% | 72% | +$3,674 | -$46,715 | 169.1% | $-73,387 (vs do-nothing $-34,615) |
| $21 | 24d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.29 | 67/125 | $19,179 | $20,049 | 54% | 70% | +$1,763 | -$70,846 | 256.5% | $-90,764 (vs do-nothing $-51,992) |
| $21 | 10d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.76 | 37/125 | $19,536 | $20,856 | 51% | 70% | +$3,438 | -$41,085 | 148.7% | $-69,445 (vs do-nothing $-30,673) |
| $21 | 3d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.06 | 19/125 | $20,140 | $21,730 | 47% | 72% | +$3,208 | -$22,428 | 81.2% | $-55,853 (vs do-nothing $-17,081) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 125 contracts at the conservative CC.