125 contracts (12,500 sh) | BE SS: $39.71 | CC-SS: $33.34 (banked floor $33.26) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $277,625 | (ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 12500 |
| Normal income ref | $39,375/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $4,956/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-129,813 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 125 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 31 Jul 2026 · 2d | 70 × $22.50 | 82% | $19,950 | $5,867 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 7 Aug 2026 · 9d | 108 × $24 | 81% | $19,800 | $-3,502 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 125 × $26.50 | 7 Aug | 9d | 26.8% | 92%hist 100% | 16%hist 5% | +3pp | $2,125 | $7,083 | -$12,867 | $83,388 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 × $26.50 26.8% OTM over spot $20.90 7 Aug 2026 (9d, $0.34 mid) = $2,125 credit for the 9d cycle → $7,083/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26.50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $26.84) 93% EV / mo +$3,501 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 47% whole by 9mo vs 44% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,453/mo median; plan ~$3,028/mo after 68% keep · $26,582 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.2 mo [1.2-4.1], measured ONLY among the 47% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 16% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$22,337 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $29 @ 74% POP 66% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.76/sh now → $1.96 mid-life (likely $1.72–$2.75) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.79/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 465 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $27 (overshoots $0.97). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $26.50 is $7 below CC-SS $33.34: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $26.84 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.64 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.34, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-129,813 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$126,277 − CC assignment net of premium (125 × $26.50): -$83,388 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-86,924 (+$42,889 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-32,549 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-54,375, the opportunity cost of earning $7,083/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $25.64 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-81,702 (+$48,111 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 97 × $23 | 31 Jul | 2d | 10.0% | 88%hist 99% | 24%hist 13% | +7pp | $873 | $13,095 | -$6,855 | $99,435 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 97 × $23 10.0% OTM over spot $20.90 31 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.27 mid) = $873 credit for the 2d cycle → $13,095/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $23) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $23.27) 91% EV / mo +$3,893 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 52% whole by 9mo vs 46% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $7,762/mo median; plan ~$5,278/mo after 68% keep · $39,474 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.3 mo [1.1-3.9], measured ONLY among the 52% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$9,709 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $27 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 97 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.54/sh now → $1.09 mid-life (likely $1.13–$2.15) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.00/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 390 simulated challenges: the $23 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $24 (overshoots $0.66). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $23 is $10 below CC-SS $33.34: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot ≥ $23.27 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $23)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.64 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.34, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-129,813 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$126,277 − CC assignment net of premium (97 × $23): -$99,435 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (28 × $31): -$6,499 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-109,470 (+$20,343 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-32,549 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-76,921, the opportunity cost of earning $13,095/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $25.64 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$24,735, position total $-106,380 (+$23,432 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 70 × $22.50 | 31 Jul | 2d | 7.7% | 82%hist 99% | 37%hist 18% | +11pp | $1,330 | $19,950 | — | $74,557 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 70 × $22.50 7.7% OTM over spot $20.90 31 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.38 mid) = $1,330 credit for the 2d cycle → $19,950/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $22.50) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $22.88) 87% EV / mo +$6,890 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +11pp 56% whole by 9mo vs 46% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~6.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $10,032/mo median; plan ~$6,821/mo after 68% keep · $54,140 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.4 mo [1.2-4.3], measured ONLY among the 56% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 21% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,064 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $27 @ 81% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 70 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.49/sh now → $1.06 mid-life (likely $1.18–$2.28) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.19/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.87/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 628 simulated challenges: the $22 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $23 (overshoots $0.72). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $22.50 is $11 below CC-SS $33.34: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.19 collected) or spot ≥ $22.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $22)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.64 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.34, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-129,813 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$126,277 − CC assignment net of premium (70 × $22.50): -$74,557 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (55 × $31): -$12,766 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-90,859 (+$38,954 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-32,549 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-58,310, the opportunity cost of earning $19,950/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $25.64 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$20,650, position total $-102,242 (+$27,571 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 88 × $22 | 31 Jul | 2d | 5.3% | 74%hist 96% | 53%hist 43% | +18pp | $2,640 | $39,600 | +$19,650 | $97,161 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 88 × $22 5.3% OTM over spot $20.90 31 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.49 mid) = $2,640 credit for the 2d cycle → $39,600/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $22) 74% Breach risk 26% POP (stays ≤ $22.50) 82% EV / mo +$11,904 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +18pp 60% whole by 9mo vs 41% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~8.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $15,996/mo median; plan ~$10,877/mo after 68% keep · $81,261 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.2 mo [1.2-4.4], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,355 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $27 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 88 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.45/sh now → $1.02 mid-life (likely $1.20–$2.49) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.72/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 947 simulated challenges: the $22 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 2, at $23 (overshoots $0.80). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $22 is $11 below CC-SS $33.34: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.30 collected) or spot ≥ $22.50 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $22)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.64 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.34, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-129,813 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$126,277 − CC assignment net of premium (88 × $22): -$97,161 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (37 × $31): -$8,588 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-109,285 (+$20,528 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-32,549 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-76,736, the opportunity cost of earning $39,600/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $25.64 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$29,392, position total $-111,020 (+$18,793 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 125 × $26.50 | 7 Aug | 9d | 26.8% | 92%hist 100% | 16%hist 5% | +3pp | $2,125 | $7,083 | -$12,717 | $83,388 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 × $26.50 26.8% OTM over spot $20.90 7 Aug 2026 (9d, $0.34 mid) = $2,125 credit for the 9d cycle → $7,083/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26.50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $26.84) 93% EV / mo +$3,501 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 47% whole by 9mo vs 44% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,453/mo median; plan ~$3,028/mo after 68% keep · $26,582 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.2 mo [1.2-4.1], measured ONLY among the 47% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 16% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$22,337 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $29 @ 74% POP 66% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.76/sh now → $1.96 mid-life (likely $1.72–$2.75) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.79/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 465 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $27 (overshoots $0.97). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $26.50 is $7 below CC-SS $33.34: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $26.84 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.64 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.34, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-129,813 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$126,277 − CC assignment net of premium (125 × $26.50): -$83,388 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-86,924 (+$42,889 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-32,549 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-54,375, the opportunity cost of earning $7,083/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $25.64 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-81,702 (+$48,111 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 109 × $25 | 7 Aug | 9d | 19.6% | 86%hist 99% | 28%hist 13% | +8pp | $3,924 | $13,080 | -$6,720 | $86,993 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 109 × $25 19.6% OTM over spot $20.90 7 Aug 2026 (9d, $0.56 mid) = $3,924 credit for the 9d cycle → $13,080/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $25.57) 89% EV / mo +$5,979 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 55% whole by 9mo vs 47% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $6,936/mo median; plan ~$4,717/mo after 68% keep · $37,972 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.7 mo [1.3-4.5], measured ONLY among the 55% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 25% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$15,688 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $28 @ 76% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 109 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.54/sh now → $1.80 mid-life (likely $1.63–$2.72) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.36/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.44/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 755 simulated challenges: the $25 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $26 (overshoots $0.98). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $25 is $8 below CC-SS $33.34: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.36 collected) or spot ≥ $25.57 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $25)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.64 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.34, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-129,813 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$126,277 − CC assignment net of premium (109 × $25): -$86,993 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (16 × $31): -$3,714 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-94,243 (+$35,570 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-32,549 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-61,694, the opportunity cost of earning $13,080/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $25.64 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,052, position total $-84,722 (+$45,091 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 108 × $24 | 7 Aug | 9d | 14.8% | 81%hist 99% | 40%hist 28% | +7pp | $5,940 | $19,800 | — | $94,943 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 108 × $24 14.8% OTM over spot $20.90 7 Aug 2026 (9d, $0.77 mid) = $5,940 credit for the 9d cycle → $19,800/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $24) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $24.77) 85% EV / mo +$8,103 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 52% whole by 9mo vs 46% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $8,759/mo median; plan ~$5,956/mo after 68% keep · $53,698 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.3 mo [1.3-4.2], measured ONLY among the 52% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 35% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$12,391 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $27 @ 79% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 108 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.40/sh now → $1.70 mid-life (likely $1.80–$2.67) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.15/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,042 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $25 (overshoots $0.94). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $24 is $9 below CC-SS $33.34: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.55 collected) or spot ≥ $24.77 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $24)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.64 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.34, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-129,813 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$126,277 − CC assignment net of premium (108 × $24): -$94,943 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (17 × $31): -$3,946 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-102,425 (+$27,388 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-32,549 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-69,876, the opportunity cost of earning $19,800/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $25.64 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,772, position total $-93,440 (+$36,373 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 121 × $22 | 7 Aug | 9d | 5.3% | 64%hist 80% | 78%hist 59% | +11pp | $11,858 | $39,527 | +$19,727 | $125,369 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 121 × $22 5.3% OTM over spot $20.90 7 Aug 2026 (9d, $1.23 mid) = $11,858 credit for the 9d cycle → $39,527/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $22) 64% Breach risk 36% POP (stays ≤ $23.23) 74% EV / mo +$800 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +11pp 58% whole by 9mo vs 48% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $12,202/mo median; plan ~$8,297/mo after 68% keep · $55,125 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [1.1-3.6], measured ONLY among the 58% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 62% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,301 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $27 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 121 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.12/sh now → $1.50 mid-life (likely $1.98–$2.77) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.98/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.52/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,867 simulated challenges: the $22 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $23 (overshoots $0.91). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $22 is $11 below CC-SS $33.34: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.24/sh (~25% of the $0.98 collected) or spot ≥ $23.23 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $22)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.64 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.34, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-129,813 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$126,277 − CC assignment net of premium (121 × $22): -$125,369 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $31): -$928 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-129,833 ($-20 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-32,549 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-97,284, the opportunity cost of earning $39,527/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $25.64 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$32,186, position total $-113,880 (+$15,933 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 26 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.812 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$126,277 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-32,549
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $22.50 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.19 | 70/125 | $19,950 | $20,156 | 82% | 87% | +$6,890 | -$74,557 | 269.9% | $-90,859 (vs do-nothing $-58,310) |
| $24 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.55 | 108/125 | $19,800 | $19,864 | 81% | 85% | +$8,103 | -$94,943 | 343.7% | $-102,425 (vs do-nothing $-69,876) |
| $23.50 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.66 | 90/125 | $19,800 | $19,931 | 76% | 81% | +$3,958 | -$82,629 | 299.1% | $-94,289 (vs do-nothing $-61,740) |
| $22 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.30 | 44/125 | $19,800 | $20,104 | 74% | 82% | +$5,952 | -$48,581 | 175.9% | $-70,917 (vs do-nothing $-38,368) |
| $23.50 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.92 | 115/125 | $19,838 | $19,875 | 73% | 80% | +$4,255 | -$102,592 | 371.4% | $-108,449 (vs do-nothing $-75,900) |
| $23 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.78 | 76/125 | $19,760 | $19,944 | 72% | 79% | +$3,298 | -$72,664 | 263.0% | $-87,573 (vs do-nothing $-55,024) |
| $23 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.93 | 113/125 | $19,704 | $19,749 | 70% | 78% | +$1,467 | -$106,345 | 385.0% | $-112,666 (vs do-nothing $-80,117) |
| $23 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.31 | 116/125 | $19,821 | $19,855 | 69% | 77% | +$3,260 | -$104,760 | 379.2% | $-110,385 (vs do-nothing $-77,836) |
| $22.50 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.74 | 80/125 | $19,733 | $19,902 | 68% | 77% | $-1,419 | -$80,808 | 292.5% | $-94,789 (vs do-nothing $-62,240) |
| $22.50 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.05 | 100/125 | $19,688 | $19,781 | 67% | 76% | +$569 | -$97,911 | 354.4% | $-107,249 (vs do-nothing $-74,700) |
| $22.50 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.48 | 102/125 | $19,690 | $19,777 | 66% | 76% | +$2,909 | -$95,483 | 345.6% | $-104,357 (vs do-nothing $-71,808) |
| $21.50 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.30 | 44/125 | $19,800 | $20,104 | 65% | 77% | $-2,896 | -$50,781 | 183.8% | $-73,117 (vs do-nothing $-40,568) |
| $22 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.98 | 61/125 | $19,927 | $20,167 | 64% | 74% | +$404 | -$63,202 | 228.8% | $-81,593 (vs do-nothing $-49,044) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $22 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.44 | 73/125 | $19,710 | $19,905 | 63% | 75% | +$3,280 | -$72,278 | 261.6% | $-87,883 (vs do-nothing $-55,334) |
| $22 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.51 | 100/125 | $19,696 | $19,789 | 63% | 74% | +$815 | -$98,311 | 355.9% | $-107,649 (vs do-nothing $-75,100) |
| $21.50 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.16 | 51/125 | $19,720 | $19,998 | 60% | 72% | +$129 | -$54,473 | 197.2% | $-75,185 (vs do-nothing $-42,636) |
| $21.50 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.87 | 81/125 | $19,757 | $19,922 | 59% | 72% | +$2,286 | -$80,766 | 292.4% | $-94,514 (vs do-nothing $-61,965) |
| $21.50 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.49 | 71/125 | $19,836 | $20,038 | 59% | 72% | +$1,149 | -$73,492 | 266.0% | $-89,562 (vs do-nothing $-57,013) |
| $21 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.91 | 80/125 | $19,930 | $20,099 | 56% | 70% | +$311 | -$83,448 | 302.1% | $-97,429 (vs do-nothing $-64,880) |
| $21 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.68 | 63/125 | $19,845 | $20,078 | 56% | 70% | +$592 | -$67,165 | 243.1% | $-85,091 (vs do-nothing $-52,542) |
| $21 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.56 | 38/125 | $19,760 | $20,086 | 55% | 70% | +$2,390 | -$40,968 | 148.3% | $-64,697 (vs do-nothing $-32,148) |
| $21 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.50 | 27/125 | $20,250 | $20,618 | 54% | 72% | $-1,641 | -$31,971 | 115.7% | $-58,253 (vs do-nothing $-25,704) |
| $20.50 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.10 | 72/125 | $19,722 | $19,920 | 53% | 69% | $-258 | -$77,336 | 279.9% | $-93,173 (vs do-nothing $-60,624) |
| $20.50 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.07 | 51/125 | $19,794 | $20,072 | 52% | 69% | +$1,825 | -$54,932 | 198.9% | $-75,644 (vs do-nothing $-43,095) |
| $20.50 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.63 | 37/125 | $20,103 | $20,433 | 50% | 67% | +$150 | -$41,481 | 150.2% | $-65,442 (vs do-nothing $-32,893) |
| $20.50 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.87 | 16/125 | $20,880 | $21,289 | 42% | 67% | +$1,488 | -$19,154 | 69.3% | $-47,989 (vs do-nothing $-15,440) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 125 contracts at the conservative CC.