FORTRESS FIGHT: GLXY @ $18.85

BE SS: $39.71  |  CC-SS: $34.46  |  125 contracts (12,500 sh) |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GENERATED2026-07-30 19:14

GLXYBBC @ $18.85   UNDERWATER $20.86 (52.5% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT
GLXY reports 2026-08-05 (Wed), in 6 days. The recommended CC (8d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. No priced expiry closes before the print, so waiting for it is the only clean option.

125 contracts (12,500 sh)  |  BE SS: $39.71  |  CC-SS: $34.46 (banked floor $34.39)  |  IV: HIGH  |  Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $37.50 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $4.148/sh)
SP: $37.50 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $21.813/sh)
HP: $17.50 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $6.960/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$277,625(ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 12500
Normal income ref$28,000/mo95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)$0/moHP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $6,146/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L$-162,000fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$14,000/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$28,000/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
1.0 mo to earn back $27,625
ML VELOCITY
9.9 mo to earn back $277,625
Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $34.46 (probe: $34C 15d) brings only $250/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-02
$879
Hole (after banked)
$161,121
was $162,000 · 1% earned back
Cycles closed
4
Credit in flight
$0
CC-SS · banked floor (info)
$34.46 → $34.39
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYPULLBACK · %B 15 (live) · RSI 40 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 33 · %B -6 · hist falling (nightly)
LEVELS20W MA (bounce target) $25.50 (+35%) · daily UBB $27.41 · 1-wk expected move ±$3 (chain IV)
SETUPSpring loaded, not ignited: 🎯 or 💎 at short DTE, normal tripwires. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-08-05: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 83 contracts at $21.50 / 8d. This is the safest strike (survival 79%, breach 21%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($14,000/mo); it brings $14,006/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 125 × $20.50/8d for $28,125/mo, but breach risk rises to 29% (+8pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 125 × $30.50/8d (99+% survival, $5,344/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $103,870 (376% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $40, recoverable in 3.7 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 83 contracts realizes $-108,274 and cuts bleed by $0/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 125 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 7 Aug 2026 (8d) · sell 83 × $21.50, 79% survival, $14,006/mo (E[net] $14,006/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.
TrackExpirySellSurvivalIncome/moE[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆7 Aug 2026 · 8d83 × $21.5079%$14,006$14,006

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 7 Aug 2026 · 8d · E[net] $14,006/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 83 × $21.50 (50% normal), 79% survival, breach 21%, $14,006/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $30.50 rung (🛡 safe yield) lifts survival to 99+% (breach 21% → 0%) for $8,662/mo less (62% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $30.50 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect GLXY to stay flat-to-down near term.
GLXY  spot $18.85 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsFIGHT edgePer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
▸🛡 safe yield ← lean125 × $30.507 Aug8d61.8%99+%hist 100%0%hist 1%+0pp$1,425$5,344-$8,662$48,130
Sell 125 × $30.50 61.8% OTM over spot $18.85 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.12 mid)
= $1,425 credit for the 8d cycle → $5,344/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $30.50)
99+%
Breach risk
0%
POP (stays ≤ $30.62)
99+%
EV / mo
+$5,337
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+0pp
33% whole by 9mo vs 33% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~0.0/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$265/mo
median; plan ~$180/mo after 68% keep · $2,115 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.0 mo [1.7-5.1], measured ONLY among the 33% of futures that got whole
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$5,344/mo
vs 50% target ($14,000/mo)-62%
vs normal income ($28,000/mo)19% covered
Net income (after hedge)$5,344/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $30.50 is $4 below CC-SS $34.46: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$48,130
… as % of IC ($27,625)174.2%
… as % of ML ($277,625)17.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.7 mo
Surgical close (125 ct)$-162,075
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.46, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-162,000
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$152,631
− CC assignment net of premium (125 × $30.50): -$48,130
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-57,499 (+$104,501 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-15,049 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-42,450, the opportunity cost of earning $5,344/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $25.50 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-96,996 (+$65,004 vs today)
▸33% normal55 × $21.507 Aug8d14.1%79%hist 96%45%hist 28%+3pp$2,475$9,281-$4,725$68,829
Sell 55 × $21.50 14.1% OTM over spot $18.85 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.54 mid)
= $2,475 credit for the 8d cycle → $9,281/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $21.50)
79%
Breach risk
21%
POP (stays ≤ $22.04)
82%
EV / mo
+$1,785
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+3pp
42% whole by 9mo vs 39% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~3.0/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$3,914/mo
median; plan ~$2,662/mo after 68% keep · $24,542 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.2 mo [1.5-4.2], measured ONLY among the 42% of futures that got whole
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$9,281/mo
vs 50% target ($14,000/mo)-34%
vs normal income ($28,000/mo)33% covered
Net income (after hedge)$9,421/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $21.50 is $13 below CC-SS $34.46: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$68,829
… as % of IC ($27,625)249.2%
… as % of ML ($277,625)24.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)2.5 mo
Surgical close (55 ct)$-71,748
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.46, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-162,000
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$152,631
− CC assignment net of premium (55 × $21.50): -$68,829
− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (70 × $34): -$3,181
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-81,379 (+$80,621 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-15,049 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-66,330, the opportunity cost of earning $9,281/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $25.50 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$19,525, position total $-116,451 (+$45,549 vs today)
▸🎯 50% normal83 × $21.507 Aug8d14.1%79%hist 96%45%hist 28%+5pp$3,735$14,006—$103,870
Sell 83 × $21.50 14.1% OTM over spot $18.85 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.54 mid)
= $3,735 credit for the 8d cycle → $14,006/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $21.50)
79%
Breach risk
21%
POP (stays ≤ $22.04)
82%
EV / mo
+$2,694
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+5pp
39% whole by 9mo vs 34% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~3.1/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$5,513/mo
median; plan ~$3,749/mo after 68% keep · $38,037 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.8 mo [1.6-5.3], measured ONLY among the 39% of futures that got whole
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$14,006/mo
vs 50% target ($14,000/mo)+0%
vs normal income ($28,000/mo)50% covered
Net income (after hedge)$14,090/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $21.50 is $13 below CC-SS $34.46: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$103,870
… as % of IC ($27,625)376.0%
… as % of ML ($277,625)37.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)3.7 mo
Surgical close (83 ct)$-108,274
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.46, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-162,000
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$152,631
− CC assignment net of premium (83 × $21.50): -$103,870
− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (42 × $34): -$1,909
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-115,147 (+$46,853 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-15,049 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-100,098, the opportunity cost of earning $14,006/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $25.50 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$29,465, position total $-126,419 (+$35,581 vs today)
▸100% normal125 × $20.507 Aug8d8.8%71%hist 96%62%hist 51%+8pp$7,500$28,125+$14,119$167,055
Sell 125 × $20.50 8.8% OTM over spot $18.85 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.73 mid)
= $7,500 credit for the 8d cycle → $28,125/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $20.50)
71%
Breach risk
29%
POP (stays ≤ $21.23)
77%
EV / mo
+$744
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+8pp
41% whole by 9mo vs 33% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~4.7/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$9,280/mo
median; plan ~$6,310/mo after 68% keep · $63,445 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.9 mo [1.5-4.5], measured ONLY among the 41% of futures that got whole
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$28,125/mo
vs 50% target ($14,000/mo)+101%
vs normal income ($28,000/mo)100% covered
Net income (after hedge)$28,125/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $20.50 is $14 below CC-SS $34.46: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$167,055
… as % of IC ($27,625)604.7%
… as % of ML ($277,625)60.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)6.0 mo
Surgical close (125 ct)$-163,625
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.46, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-162,000
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$152,631
− CC assignment net of premium (125 × $20.50): -$167,055
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-176,424 ($-14,424 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-15,049 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-161,375, the opportunity cost of earning $28,125/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $25.50 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$55,000, position total $-151,996 (+$10,004 vs today)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on GLXY are the tiebreakers.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (15 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 15 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.782 (IBKR)  |  Recovery@SS: +$152,631 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $-15,049

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$21.508d7 Aug 2026$0.4583/125$14,006$14,09079%82%+$2,694-$103,870376.0%$-115,147 (vs do-nothing $-100,098)
$21.5015d14 Aug 2026$0.64110/125$14,080$14,11076%81%+$2,549-$135,569490.7%$-145,619 (vs do-nothing $-130,570)
$218d7 Aug 2026$0.5075/125$14,062$14,16275%80%+$1,072-$97,233352.0%$-108,874 (vs do-nothing $-93,825)
$21.5022d21 Aug 2026$0.84123/125$14,089$14,09374%79%+$1,484-$149,130539.8%$-158,590 (vs do-nothing $-143,541)
$2115d14 Aug 2026$0.7594/125$14,100$14,16273%79%+$2,082-$119,516432.6%$-130,293 (vs do-nothing $-115,244)
$20.508d7 Aug 2026$0.6063/125$14,175$14,29971%77%+$375-$84,196304.8%$-96,382 (vs do-nothing $-81,333)
$20.5015d14 Aug 2026$0.8385/125$14,110$14,19069%77%+$939-$111,643404.1%$-122,829 (vs do-nothing $-107,780)
$20.5022d21 Aug 2026$1.03100/125$14,045$14,09567%75%$-104-$129,344468.2%$-139,849 (vs do-nothing $-124,800)
$2015d14 Aug 2026$0.7989/125$14,062$14,13465%74%$-2,542-$121,702440.6%$-132,707 (vs do-nothing $-117,658)
$19.5015d14 Aug 2026$1.1661/125$14,152$14,28060%72%+$542-$84,207304.8%$-96,484 (vs do-nothing $-81,435)
$19.5022d21 Aug 2026$0.83124/125$14,035$14,03760%70%$-9,660-$175,267634.5%$-184,681 (vs do-nothing $-169,632)
$1922d21 Aug 2026$1.5965/125$14,093$14,21356%69%$-221-$90,184326.5%$-102,279 (vs do-nothing $-87,230)
$1915d14 Aug 2026$1.1263/125$14,112$14,23656%68%$-4,249-$90,370327.1%$-102,556 (vs do-nothing $-87,507)
Show 2 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$18.5022d21 Aug 2026$1.4273/125$14,135$14,23952%67%$-4,291-$106,174384.3%$-117,906 (vs do-nothing $-102,857)
$18.5015d14 Aug 2026$1.3353/125$14,098$14,24252%67%$-3,829-$77,562280.8%$-90,203 (vs do-nothing $-75,154)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 125 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3  |  2026-07-30 19:14