125 contracts (12,500 sh) | BE SS: $39.71 | CC-SS: $34.12 (banked floor $34.04) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $277,625 | (ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 12500 |
| Normal income ref | $38,063/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $5,382/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-151,687 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 125 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 7 Aug 2026 · 8d | 121 × $22.50 | 81% | $19,058 | $-8,325 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 125 × $25 | 7 Aug | 8d | 28.0% | 91%hist 100% | 18%hist 5% | +1pp | $625 | $2,344 | -$16,714 | $113,355 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 × $25 28.0% OTM over spot $19.53 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.27 mid) = $625 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,344/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $25.27) 92% EV / mo $-2,845 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 48% whole by 9mo vs 48% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,685/mo median; plan ~$1,146/mo after 68% keep · $9,600 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.4 mo [1.2-4.0], measured ONLY among the 48% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$22,756 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $26 @ 70% POP 61% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.64/sh now → $1.87 mid-life (likely $1.49–$2.62) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.82/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 318 simulated challenges: the $25 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $26 (overshoots $0.95). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $25 is $9 below CC-SS $34.12: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $25.27 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $25)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.80 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.12, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-151,687 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$145,362 − CC assignment net of premium (125 × $25): -$113,355 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-119,681 (+$32,007 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,681 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-112,000, the opportunity cost of earning $2,344/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $25.57 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,500, position total $-97,989 (+$53,698 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 102 × $23 | 7 Aug | 8d | 17.8% | 83%hist 99% | 35%hist 18% | +5pp | $3,366 | $12,622 | -$6,435 | $110,042 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 102 × $23 17.8% OTM over spot $19.53 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.53 mid) = $3,366 credit for the 8d cycle → $12,622/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $23) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $23.52) 86% EV / mo +$2,611 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 47% whole by 9mo vs 42% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $5,989/mo median; plan ~$4,072/mo after 68% keep · $34,563 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.2 mo [1.2-4.2], measured ONLY among the 47% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 25% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$13,529 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $24 @ 70% POP 61% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 102 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.34/sh now → $1.66 mid-life (likely $1.63–$2.58) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.33/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.33/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 742 simulated challenges: the $23 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $24 (overshoots $0.88). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $23 is $11 below CC-SS $34.12: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.33 collected) or spot ≥ $23.52 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $23)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.80 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.12, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-151,687 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$145,362 − CC assignment net of premium (102 × $23): -$110,042 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (23 × $34): -$249 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-116,617 (+$35,071 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,681 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-108,936, the opportunity cost of earning $12,622/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $25.57 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$22,848, position total $-114,314 (+$37,373 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 121 × $22.50 | 7 Aug | 8d | 15.2% | 81%hist 99% | 41%hist 28% | +7pp | $5,082 | $19,058 | — | $135,501 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 121 × $22.50 15.2% OTM over spot $19.53 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.62 mid) = $5,082 credit for the 8d cycle → $19,058/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $22.50) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $23.12) 84% EV / mo +$4,198 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 48% whole by 9mo vs 41% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $8,016/mo median; plan ~$5,451/mo after 68% keep · $49,011 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.4 mo [1.4-4.8], measured ONLY among the 48% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 30% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$14,334 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $24 @ 71% POP 65% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 121 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.27/sh now → $1.60 mid-life (likely $1.65–$2.59) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.42/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 900 simulated challenges: the $22 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $23 (overshoots $0.85). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $22.50 is $12 below CC-SS $34.12: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.42 collected) or spot ≥ $23.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $22)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.80 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.12, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-151,687 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$145,362 − CC assignment net of premium (121 × $22.50): -$135,501 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $34): -$43 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-141,870 (+$9,818 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,681 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-134,189, the opportunity cost of earning $19,058/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $25.57 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$32,065, position total $-123,550 (+$28,137 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 112 × $21 | 7 Aug | 8d | 7.5% | 69%hist 80% | 66%hist 51% | +10pp | $10,192 | $38,220 | +$19,162 | $136,734 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 112 × $21 7.5% OTM over spot $19.53 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $1.03 mid) = $10,192 credit for the 8d cycle → $38,220/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $21) 69% Breach risk 31% POP (stays ≤ $22.04) 78% EV / mo +$11,260 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 48% whole by 9mo vs 38% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $12,437/mo median; plan ~$8,457/mo after 68% keep · $72,011 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.1 mo [1.3-3.9], measured ONLY among the 48% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 51% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,087 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $25 @ 83% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 112 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.05/sh now → $1.45 mid-life (likely $1.78–$2.55) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.91/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.54/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,528 simulated challenges: the $21 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $22 (overshoots $0.80). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $21 is $13 below CC-SS $34.12: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.23/sh (~25% of the $0.91 collected) or spot ≥ $22.04 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $21)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.80 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.12, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-151,687 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$145,362 − CC assignment net of premium (112 × $21): -$136,734 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (13 × $34): -$141 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-143,201 (+$8,487 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,681 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-135,520, the opportunity cost of earning $38,220/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $25.57 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$40,992, position total $-132,468 (+$19,219 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 15 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.797 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$145,362 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-7,681
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $22.50 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.42 | 121/125 | $19,058 | $19,066 | 81% | 84% | +$4,198 | -$135,501 | 490.5% | $-141,870 (vs do-nothing $-134,189) |
| $22 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.63 | 81/125 | $19,136 | $19,224 | 77% | 83% | +$6,676 | -$93,056 | 336.9% | $-99,859 (vs do-nothing $-92,178) |
| $21.50 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.62 | 82/125 | $19,065 | $19,151 | 73% | 79% | +$3,269 | -$98,387 | 356.2% | $-105,179 (vs do-nothing $-97,498) |
| $21.50 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.90 | 106/125 | $19,080 | $19,118 | 71% | 78% | +$3,818 | -$124,215 | 449.6% | $-130,747 (vs do-nothing $-123,066) |
| $21 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.91 | 56/125 | $19,110 | $19,248 | 69% | 78% | +$5,630 | -$68,367 | 247.5% | $-75,441 (vs do-nothing $-67,760) |
| $21 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.06 | 90/125 | $19,080 | $19,150 | 67% | 76% | +$3,370 | -$108,526 | 392.9% | $-115,231 (vs do-nothing $-107,550) |
| $20.50 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.80 | 64/125 | $19,200 | $19,322 | 64% | 75% | +$30 | -$82,038 | 297.0% | $-89,025 (vs do-nothing $-81,344) |
| $20.50 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.06 | 90/125 | $19,080 | $19,150 | 63% | 74% | +$110 | -$113,026 | 409.1% | $-119,731 (vs do-nothing $-112,050) |
| $20.50 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.35 | 104/125 | $19,145 | $19,187 | 62% | 73% | $-760 | -$127,592 | 461.9% | $-134,145 (vs do-nothing $-126,464) |
| $20 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.43 | 98/125 | $19,110 | $19,164 | 59% | 71% | $-2,271 | -$124,347 | 450.1% | $-130,965 (vs do-nothing $-123,284) |
| $20 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.95 | 54/125 | $19,238 | $19,380 | 59% | 71% | $-771 | -$71,110 | 257.4% | $-78,205 (vs do-nothing $-70,524) |
| $20 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.26 | 76/125 | $19,152 | $19,250 | 59% | 72% | $-67 | -$97,724 | 353.8% | $-104,581 (vs do-nothing $-96,900) |
| $19.50 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.80 | 78/125 | $19,145 | $19,239 | 55% | 70% | +$671 | -$99,984 | 361.9% | $-106,819 (vs do-nothing $-99,138) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $19.50 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.55 | 62/125 | $19,220 | $19,346 | 54% | 70% | +$570 | -$81,024 | 293.3% | $-88,033 (vs do-nothing $-80,352) |
| $19.50 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.16 | 44/125 | $19,140 | $19,302 | 53% | 69% | $-868 | -$59,217 | 214.4% | $-66,421 (vs do-nothing $-58,740) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 125 contracts at the conservative CC.